Carlos Beltran (2009 poll version)

[Windy City Fan]

Beltran almost definately needs at least one or two more big years to be a serious candidate. To date he's had exactly one standout season and 2 or 3 very good years. One more big MVP quality season and a couple of more very good years would help him out. Even if he does that, he's got to stay productive and play to about 40 probably to get the counting stats up.

Its possible Beltran could make it. He's got a few other things going for him with his strong glove and excellent stolen base numbers making him a legit 5 tool player.

[Sockeye]

Molitor was a superb baserunner, a world series MVP, had a career OBP of .369 and was a better than average fielder at 3B, 2B, and 1B but injuries kept him at DH. And if you're a counting stats man, then Paul Molitor had them in scores. I myself don't believe that Paul Molitor was the slam dunk HOFer that some see him as, but he's deserving, and while Beltran has the potential to be a better player than Molitor, I just don't see that happening.

Don't get me wrong I loved Molitor as a player. Might be his biggest fan. But if you are somehow saying that that glovework is needed to add to or make up for a players OPS+ total it just isn't the case.
Beltran's OBP is a very respectable .356 with far more power than Molitor. And while Molitor may have been an above average fielder at his positions. The fact remains that Molitor spent most of his games at DH thus creating little defensive value.

[Cougar]

If Pujols missed the rest of '08, then went 0 for 2009 and 0 for 1 in 2010, he'd be a HOFer.

Offensively, the guy is DiMaggio without WWII interrupting his peak.

[Sockeye]

Wait, are we talking about whether Beltran SHOULD deserve induction or whether he will be inducted?

Mmmm good question....since we don't always agree with the writers I guess it's whether he should or not. Beltran is one thou that I think will be regardless. Of course I thought Dawson was beyond reproach as well and he isn't in yet. He is quite similar to Beltran. Still I hold out hopes the writers will come to their senses.

[Brad Harris]

Still I hold out hopes the writers will come to their senses.

Still getting quarters from the tooth fairy too?

[Sockeye]

PLEASE DO NOT MERGE THIS THREAD!!

It has been about 3 years since the last series of potential HOFer polls I ran. Thought I would do another series of polls. Below is a list of the players stats to date. Unlike the last series of polls I'm not going to list any career projections.

Carlos Beltran at age 31

1481 games
5719 at-bats
1035 runs
1605 hits
318 doubles
63 triples
263 home runs
987 RBI
275 stolen bases
683 BB
.281 AVG
.357 OBP
.496 SLG
118 OPS+
2838 total bases
6520 PA's
1079 runs created
6.7 RC/G
.621 OWP
148.2 batting runs
14.0 batting wins
1 black ink
66 gray ink
29.5 HOF standards
79.0 HOF monitor
.293 EQA
75.2 WARP1
86.6 WARP3
443 BRAR
250 BRAA
345 FRAR
90 FRAA
253 win shares

[KCGHOST]

Tought question without projections. I went with "No", but that's for now.

[jalbright]

I can merge the thread and preserve the newer poll. Beyond that, I fail to see why I shouldn't do so, though if you'd care to explain a further reason, I'll give you a few days to provide it.

[Sockeye]

I can merge the thread and preserve the newer poll. Beyond that, I fail to see why I shouldn't do so, though if you'd care to explain a further reason, I'll give you a few days to provide it.

I'd like to have the older poll and thread kept as well so we can all see the difference in opinions from 2006 to 2009. I think the contrast will be quite interesting. I'd appreciate it if they could be kept seperate.

[Senor Octobre]

Sockeye,

Why not give a reasonable projection (with a decline phase, etc) of what you think he'll end up with when he's done.

[Brad Harris]

Five more productive years as one of the best center fielders in the league and he's in. A sharp decline in his skills or production and he's a one-and-done when his name is called.

[jalbright]

I'd like to have the older poll and thread kept as well so we can all see the difference in opinions from 2006 to 2009. I think the contrast will be quite interesting. I'd appreciate it if they could be kept seperate.

I've consistently avoided doing that for other players, and, I see little reason not to continue to follow that policy. If you want to record the results from the prior poll in a post here, I'll give you a day to accomplish that.

[Sockeye]

Sockeye,

Why not give a reasonable projection (with a decline phase, etc) of what you think he'll end up with when he's done.

I don't want to make this about my projections. Instead I'd rather focus on the player. Since you ask though I think Carlos Beltran should end up with around

2506 games
9406 at-bats
1629 runs
2589 hits
505 doubles
82 triples
428 home runs
1613 RBI
359 stolen bases
51 caught stealing
87.5 SB%
1167 BB
1741 SO
.275 AVG
.354 OBP
.485 SLG
4562 total bases
21 SH
123 SF
107 IBB
50 HBP
178 GDP

[Senor Octobre]

I'm afraid to answer either way at this point. A season or two more like his '06 and the rest no worse than his '02 would do it for me I guess, as long as the defense was still there. Ideally, you don't want to see the career OPS+ sink below 115. How does he compare to Andruw Jones for you guys? Favorably?

[henrich]

I have Jones with a slight edge right now, but his sharp decline will allow Beltran to catch up without a rebound season.

[Sockeye]

In a poll a ran last year 85% of people believed that Max Carey deserves to be in the HOF. Can someone explain to me how Max Carey is better than Carlos Beltran? Perhaps I'm missing something here.

[Freakshow]

One of Beltran's stumbling blocks is he wasn't as good as his contemporaries Bernie Williams and Jim Edmonds, neither of whom figure to get much support from the HOF voters. Here's the list of all players debuting since 1991 with 1000 G in CF and 100 OPS+:

  Cnt Player            OPS+  RC   OBP    PA    G  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+
    1 Jim Edmonds        132 1364  .377  7708 1925 1993 2008 
    2 Bernie Williams    125 1445  .381  9053 2076 1991 2006 
    3 Carlos Beltran     118 1079  .357  6520 1481 1998 2008 
    4 Andruw Jones       111 1104  .339  7514 1836 1996 2008 
    5 Vernon Wells       109  667  .332  4633 1078 1999 2008 
    6 Kenny Lofton       107 1386  .372  9234 2103 1991 2007 
    7 Mike Cameron       106  959  .340  6807 1680 1995 2008 
    8 Torii Hunter       105  737  .326  5502 1380 1997 2008 
    9 Johnny Damon       103 1296  .354  8807 1988 1995 2008

OTOH, Beltran's record is filled with 3-digit numbers in the RBI and R columns, which should be a turn-on for the BBWAA voters. At this point it's all about getting his counting numbers up to HOF-level. If he reaches 400 HR and 2500 hits he's a shoo-in, that's about 5-6 more years of good play.

One interesting marker that Beltran holds, for the moment, is the highest career SB% in history:

	         SB	 CS	 SB%
Carlos Beltran	275	 37	88.14%
Tim Raines	808	146	84.70%
Eric Davis	349	 66	84.10%
Willie Wilson	668	134	83.29%
Barry Larkin	379	 77	83.11%

As for Carey, he had a similar OPS+ over a similar number of PA, 1915-25

  Cnt Player            OPS+  RC   OBP    PA    G  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+
    1 Max Carey          116  919  .374  6727 1501 1915 1925

[jalbright]

Just creating this thread to put up the current poll. I can't save the recent results, so you'll have to vote again. Sorry.

[jalbright]

In the 2006 poll, the vote was 71-15 that Beltran was not a HOFer (the "not sure" option wasn't available that time). FWIW, that's a 82.6% to 17.4% spread. I've posted the new poll to see how much (if at all) minds have changed over the past few years.

[Sockeye]

One of Beltran's stumbling blocks is he wasn't as good as his contemporaries Bernie Williams and Jim Edmonds, neither of whom figure to get much support from the HOF voters. Here's the list of all players debuting since 1991 with 1000 G in CF and 100 OPS+:

  Cnt Player            OPS+  RC   OBP    PA    G  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+
    1 Jim Edmonds        132 1364  .377  7708 1925 1993 2008 
    2 Bernie Williams    125 1445  .381  9053 2076 1991 2006 
    3 Carlos Beltran     118 1079  .357  6520 1481 1998 2008 
    4 Andruw Jones       111 1104  .339  7514 1836 1996 2008 
    5 Vernon Wells       109  667  .332  4633 1078 1999 2008 
    6 Kenny Lofton       107 1386  .372  9234 2103 1991 2007 
    7 Mike Cameron       106  959  .340  6807 1680 1995 2008 
    8 Torii Hunter       105  737  .326  5502 1380 1997 2008 
    9 Johnny Damon       103 1296  .354  8807 1988 1995 2008

OTOH, Beltran's record is filled with 3-digit numbers in the RBI and R columns, which should be a turn-on for the BBWAA voters. At this point it's all about getting his counting numbers up to HOF-level. If he reaches 400 HR and 2500 hits he's a shoo-in, that's about 5-6 more years of good play.

A big difference between Edmonds, Williams, & Beltran is as you pointed out the 3 digit numbers in the RBI and R columns.

Beltran
1035 runs (100+ 7 times)
987 RBI (100+ 8 times)

Edmonds
1207 runs (100+ 4 times)
1176 RBI (100+ 4 times)

Williams
1366 runs (100+ 8 times)
1257 RBI (100+ 5 times)

Beltran is roughly 2-3 good seasons from surpassing Edmonds in both of these counting numbers depending on how much longer Edmonds plays. Likely 3 seasons from catching Williams in both catagories. Considering that Beltran is still only 31 that would put him where Williams/Edmonds is at by age 34. 3 years younger than Williams when he retired. Factor in another 3-4 seasons for Beltran even with declining numbers and his numbers should be well ahead of both Williams and Edmonds.


One interesting marker that Beltran holds, for the moment, is the highest career SB% in history:

	         SB	 CS	 SB%
Carlos Beltran	275	 37	88.14%
Tim Raines	808	146	84.70%
Eric Davis	349	 66	84.10%
Willie Wilson	668	134	83.29%
Barry Larkin	379	 77	83.11%

[/QUOTE]

The stolen base numbers are an added bonus and only adds to Beltran's already strong HOF case. When compared to his two main contemporaries

Beltran 275 37 88&
Williams 147 87 62%
Edmonds 65 50 56%

This helps to close to OPS+ gap



As for Carey, he had a similar OPS+ over a similar number of PA, 1915-25

  Cnt Player            OPS+  RC   OBP    PA    G  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+
    1 Max Carey          116  919  .374  6727 1501 1915 1925

[/QUOTE]

If you single out Max Carey's 11 best seasons during his prime his OPS+ is close to Beltran's career OPS+. But if you look at Carey's best seasons according to OPS+ compared to Beltran's they clearly do not measure up.

Beltran 150, 132, 132, 129, 126, 122
Carey 126, 125, 122, 120, 119, 117

Beltran still has another couple seasons in his prime so the numbers could very well end up even more lopsided.

[Sockeye]

In the 2006 poll, the vote was 71-15 that Beltran was not a HOFer (the "not sure" option wasn't available that time). FWIW, that's a 82.6% to 17.4% spread. I've posted the new poll to see how much (if at all) minds have changed over the past few years.

Nice job. Thank you

[mwiggins]

In a poll a ran last year 85% of people believed that Max Carey deserves to be in the HOF. Can someone explain to me how Max Carey is better than Carlos Beltran? Perhaps I'm missing something here.

It's apples and oranges. Carey had a full career and he's a deserving HoFer. Doesn't mean Beltran won't be as well when he's done, but he's not there yet. Carey did enough in his career to merit the Hall, Beltran hasn't yet. And Beltran isn't thought by most to be a future Hall of Famer. From that team Wright and Reyes and Santana are though of that way, but Beltran's kind of underappreciated. So he's still got quite a bit to do. He's only a 4 time All-Star, and has only 1 top 5 MVP finish.

Plus, he's an all-around guy, which isn't as easy for the voters to recognize. Very good fielder, but he's not an Ozzie Smith type defensive whiz. Very good hitter, but he doesn't often stand out as a dominant hitter. He's not going to have a ton of HR's or a big time BA. He's up against a lot of obstacles. Luckily he has that monster post season from 2004 in his record.

And Carey doesn't have to be "better" than Beltran to be a deserving HoFer. The HoF isn't just based on which player is better. Charlie Keller was a better player than both guys, but he's not a deserving HoFer.

[Sockeye]

It's apples and oranges. Carey had a full career and he's a deserving HoFer. Doesn't mean Beltran won't be as well when he's done, but he's not there yet. Carey did enough in his career to merit the Hall, Beltran hasn't yet. And Beltran isn't thought by most to be a future Hall of Famer. From that team Wright and Reyes and Santana are though of that way, but Beltran's kind of underappreciated. So he's still got quite a bit to do. He's only a 4 time All-Star, and has only 1 top 5 MVP finish.

This poll isn't asking if Beltran is a HOFer as of today. Rather if he will be when he retires. I disagree that Wright, Reyes, and Santana are more thought of as future HOFers than Beltran. They are all younger with fewer great seasons to their credit. Wright, Reyes, and Santana may be portrayed as biggers stars due to their flashy styles of play or personalities. Beltran isn't one that seeks media attention. Instead he goes out and does his job every day season after season and is putting up HOF caliber numbers in the process.

Plus, he's an all-around guy, which isn't as easy for the voters to recognize. Very good fielder, but he's not an Ozzie Smith type defensive whiz. Very good hitter, but he doesn't often stand out as a dominant hitter. He's not going to have a ton of HR's or a big time BA. He's up against a lot of obstacles. Luckily he has that monster post season from 2004 in his record.

Carlos Beltran could very well be the best defensive CFer in the NL today if not all of baseball. His range factor per game is 2.72 compared to a league average of 1.98. Compare that to say Torii Hunter who might be considered the best in the AL 2.63 to 2.03. Beltran is credited with 90 FRAA compared to 36 FRAA for Hunter. No, he isn't an Ozzie Smith but then he isn't SS either. He isn't an overly dominant hitter but then his position doesn't call for him to be the way a 1B or corner OF position does. He should end up with over 400 home runs by the time he retires. Only Mays, Griffey, Mantle, & Dawson among CFers.

And Carey doesn't have to be "better" than Beltran to be a deserving HoFer. The HoF isn't just based on which player is better. Charlie Keller was a better player than both guys, but he's not a deserving HoFer.

That has everything to do with longevity. If Beltran plays roughly the same amount of games over his career that Carey did. Right now he needs to average about 142 games over the next 7 seasons or til the age of 38 to reach Carey's total his counting totals will be much better than Carey's as will his production numbers. At that point there will be no good argument as to why Carey should be in cooperstown and Beltran shouldn't. Beltran is getting to the point now where given just a normal decline his numbers should easily fall well over the HOF line. 253 win shares at the age of 31. Carey had 215 through the same age. Carlos Beltran has a good chance to end up with between 350-400 win shares. Even a poor defensive 1B with no speed that gets to 360+ win shares is a virtual lock for the HOF.

[philkid3]

Very close on Beltran, but not positive.

I certainly cannot say no easily.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Beltran is improving his chances; he's hanging in there, and he's become a bit more consistent from year to year.

Power/Speed guys traditionally do poorly in HOF voting, but that doesn't bean they're not HOF-worthy. It's hard to see Beltran being a 1st ballot guy. If he goes into the HOF, it's because he'll "grow on" the voters over time.

I think that the most important thing Beltran can do is win more CF Gold Gloves. He's won 3 in a row, and he will soon lay claim to being the best defensive CF in the NL for his era. 3-4 more GGs, and Beltran stands out a bit more. If he doesn't do that, he's another Power/Speed guy struggling for a niche. I think he'll put in a HOF-worthy career, but I'm not sure that this will be recognized.