Registered User
Please do not forget that:
1) Panama was beheaded (lost top two starters, Bruce Chen and Randall Delgado)
2) Whoever is the pitching coach for Brazil deserves my utmost respect (marginal NPB and Rookie leaguer shutting down big leaguers)
3) Argentina should replace Brazil in an American qualifier (especially if Italy returns a player or two). An American qualifier is a bad idea as it lowers the level of the WBC itself.
Registered User
I think the teams playing in the Panama qualifier were told that the winner would move on to play in Pool C in San Juan. (At least that's what players and coaches mentioned a few times in the Panama qualifier games I watched. This report from Brazilian media (in Portuguese) says the same thing.
Because WBC Inc. doesn't doesn’t seem to like to take risks, I'll assume for now that all that's correct. And so here are my predictions for relegated teams coming out of the first pools:
Pool A (Japan): China
Pool B (Taiwan): Netherlands
Pool C (San Juan): Brazil
Pool D (Arizona): Italy
And so here's what I've got for the qualifier pools at the 2017 WBC:
Qualifier 1 (Nettuno, Italy): Italy, Germany, Great Britain, Czech Republic
Qualifier 2 (Cartegena, Colombia): Brazil, Panama, Colombia, Nicaragua
Qualifier 3 (Auckland, New Zealand): New Zealand, China, Philippines, Thailand
Qualifier 4 (Haarlem, Netherlands) Netherlands, Israel, South Africa, France
But I’m just guessing, of course.
Registered User
But Colombia was beheaded too. And the major leaguers who did pitch in this qualfier weren't very effective. So it's not enough to predict a Panama win in retrospect because it didn't have Bruce Chen or Delgado.Originally Posted by titorondon
Do you mean that they should do away with the Americas qualifier because it gives an unfair advantage to teams from other continents who don't have to fight through a round-of-death qualifier? And that having those other teams in the main tournament instead of, say, Panama or Colombia dilutes the main tournament?3) Argentina should replace Brazil in an American qualifier (especially if Italy returns a player or two). An American qualifier is a bad idea as it lowers the level of the WBC itself.
Registered User
No way Nicaragua gets placed below New Zealand. You gotta consider the teams' opponents. Otherwise, though, I think this is right. The scoreboard sure agrees.
Last edited by Rally Monkey; 11-20-2012 at 11:36 AM.
Playertobenamedlater
I've read the same thing on the Venezuelan League homepage. Your Qualifier predictions sound very good, but the WBCI's M.O. is to always stick to what they know, so I think Panama will get to host again.
Registered User
Good point. Certainly wishful thinking on my part where it gets placed. Nothing against Panama (the fans were fantastic), but I'd love to see Colombian baseball fans on the coast get a chance to watch their heroes play in person.
Also, there's no way to predict whether Auckland will be able to host a qualifier. I know that Murray Cook was there earlier this year checking out the city's sports venues to see if baseball can be played in any of them. And I also know that there's a comprehensive stadium consolidation study going on in Auckland right now, to see how the region can best use its surplus of exisiting facilities for the dominant sporting codes. Getting a chance to host a qualifying round could give Baseball New Zealand a seat at the table in those negotiations. But who knows.
If Australia gets relegated, of course, then it'll offer the most obvious venue. And I have no clue now where (if anywhere) China has a baseball facility that could host a qualifying tournament. (I am confident, though, that it wouldn't attract many local fans.) So for now, keep an eye on New Zealand.
Last edited by Rally Monkey; 11-20-2012 at 12:09 PM.
Playertobenamedlater
You are absolutely right, I didn't want to penalize NZ too harshly for their group strength, but Nicaragua failed to win a game where as New Zealand won two. It's harder to rank these teams in a vacuum based on their WBCQ performance alone, when you know the quality of their opposition. Ok, let's revise it:
- Taiwan [3-0, +35 RD, 2 KO, 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .347/.504/.484 AVG/OBP/SLG]
- Brazil [3-0, +8, 0.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .316/.358/.388]
- Panama [2-2, +4, 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .236/.345/.325]
- Colombia [1-2, -1, 5.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .269/.345/.375]
- Nicaragua [0-2, -11, 6.75 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, .286/.351/.357]
- New Zealand [2-2, -15, 1 KO, KO'd Once, 6.39 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, .271/.379/.346]
- Philippines [1-2, -14, KO'd Once, 7.20 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, .212/.287/.269]
- Thailand [0-2, -16, KO'd Twice, 7.94 EA, 2.12 WHIP, .180/.275/.197]
Last edited by NewEnglandAmazins; 11-20-2012 at 11:54 AM.
Registered User
So if Australia is relegated, here are my picks.
Qualifier 1 (Nettuno, Italy): Italy, Germany, France, Czech Republic
Qualifier 2 (Cartegena, Colombia): Brazil, Panama, Colombia, Nicaragua
Qualifier 3 (Sydney, Australia): Australia, Israel, South Africa, Great Britain
Qualifier 4 (Auckland, New Zealand): China, New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand
Registered User
What about speculating about 2013 tournament instead of 2017?
Here are my predictions:
Japan 3-0
Cuba 2-1
Brazil 1-2
China 0-3
----------------
Korea 2-1
Netherlands 2-1
Taiwan 1-2
Australia 1-2
-----------------
USA 2-1
Canada 2-1
Mexico 2-1
Italy 0-3
-----------------
Dominicana 3-0
Venezuela 2-1
Puerto Rico 1-2
Spain 0-3
=================
Japan vs Netherlands ==> Japan
Korea vs Cuba ==> Cuba
Cuba vs Japan ==> Cuba
Korea vs Netherlands ==> Netherlands (Upset)
Netherlands vs Japan ==> Japan
Japan vs Cuba ==> Japan
------------------
USA vs Venezuela ==> Venezuela
Dominicana vs Canada ==> Dominicana
Venezuela vs Dominicana ==> Venezuela
USA vs Canada ==> Canada (upset)
Canada vs Dominicana ==> Dominicana
Dominicana vs Venezuela ==> Dominicana
=====================
SEMI FINALS
Dominicana vs Cuba ==> Dominicana
Japan vs Venezuela ==> Venezuela
======================
FINAL
Dominicana vs Venezuela ==> Venezuela
Registered User
Sounds like a new contest for Phil to manage.
Registered User
I tried to make my own predictions on 2013. But it just isn't working without knowing which qualifying team gets plugged in where. We all know that Chinese Taipei will be playing at home in Taichung. But will Spain be in Fukuoka, Phoenix, or San Juan? I'm guessing Phoenix, with Canada in Japan and Brazil in Puerto Rico. But it could be any combination of that.
I mean, putting Spain in Japan would make a lot of sense because it would create a nice rivalry with Cuba. And, as (I think) the weakest qualifying team, it would give China more of a shot to move on--which you gotta think MLB believes is in the best interest of developing the game there. But I wonder if Cuba would be embarrassed if the WBC puts a team loaded with Cuban defectors in its pool. At the very least, you'd think that MLB would want to avoid any sort of politics or controversy.
And if MLB is looking to grease the skids for Canada--and avoid the spectacle of forcing a top baseball market to qualify for the tournament in 2017--it's natural that it would place it in Fukuoka, where the Canucks can beat up on China's amateurs. Certainly, the WBC would prefer to see Canada get third place (or higher!) than Spain. Also, Spain is a whole 8 hours ahead of Japan. That would make it nearly impossible for casual fans in Madrid or Barcelona to watch pool play live.
But what about Brazil? As it's been noted here, it would make a lot of sense to put that country--with its Japanese Brazilian players and fans--in Fukuoka. But, assuming that every one of the qualifying teams can beat China, is it a smart move to allow a young baseball country like Brazil to basically punch a ticket to the main tournament in 2017? Instead of Canada? And would Brazilian media pay more attention to the event if it wasn't so far away?
What about Phoenix? Most of us have assumed that Canada would play there (if it doesn't play in Fukuoka). But that raises the possibility of another upset like the one in 2009. Could Italy beat Canada again? Or worse for MLB--could Canada beat Team USA in Arizona like it did in 2006? Maybe Canada is too much of a wild card to put in this pool.
No one's really discussed whether Spain should go to Phoenix. There's good reason to think that would be a good fit. With its colonial history and diverse Spanish-speaking players, Spain's a bit of a natural rival for Mexico. And it's a bona fide rival of Italy's for sure. Watching those two teams battle it out to avoid relegation to a European qualifier is sure to get some attention back home. And, as I noted, the WBC organizers are probably always looking for a way to make Team USA's path to the championships a little less rocky.
Spain also is a prime candidate for San Juan. Again, there's the colonial connection. But--even more importantly--this is already a Pool of Death. MLB won't want to plop Canada into the pool and make the Dominican Republic's job, or Venezuela's, even harder. So Spain seems at home here. Or Brazil.
So those are some of the considerations. (I'm assuming that the WBC organizers wanted to take these kinds of considerations into account when they designed the tournament. That's why they didn't simply assign each qualifying group winner to a pool before the games began.) There are probably more boring logisitical ones. (Remember: The WBC picks up the tab for transporting and lodging each team. It's more expensive to fly Brazilian players fron Sao Paulo to Fukuoka than, say, San Juan.) Given all of this, I'll stick with my predictions: Pool A (Fukuoka) will feature Canada. Pool B (Taichung), Chinese Taipei. Pool C (San Juan), Brazil. And Pool D (Phoenix), Spain.
Last edited by Rally Monkey; 11-20-2012 at 02:06 PM.
Registered User
I was told by some of the Spanish people and French people at the qualifier in Jupiter that that is exactly what they planned on doing....and the reason they would is because everybody on their qualifier team except one person was Cuban so why not do the same and increase the talent level some
Registered User
[QUOTE=titorondon;2089083]Please do not forget that:
1) Panama was beheaded (lost top two starters, Bruce Chen and Randall Delgado)
2) Whoever is the pitching coach for Brazil deserves my utmost respect (marginal NPB and Rookie leaguer shutting down big leaguers)
3) Argentina should replace Brazil in an American qualifier (especially if Italy returns a player or two). An American qualifier is a bad idea as it lowers the level of the WBC itself.[/QUOT
I don't give a crap about beheaded. I know that some 19 year old guy pitching for Brazil blew away Carlos Lee and Ruben Rivera with 3-2 fastballs when a single would have tied the game. Enough said.
Registered User
OF/3B- Dayan Viciedo
SS- Alexei Ramirez
1B- Juan Miranda
SS- Yuniesky Betancourt
RP- Brayan Pena
1B/OF- Kendrys Morales
SS- Yunel Escobar
SP- Livan Hernandez
SP/RP- Aroldis Chapman
1B/OF- Yonder Alonso
IF- Adeiny Hechavarria
OF- Yoenis Cespedes
SS- Jose Iglesias
OF- Leonys Martin
C- Yasmani Grandal
SP- Jose Contreras
They could be a real contender if they do so
Registered User
Again: Why would any of those players agree to play for Spain? I can see a young player who's trying to get scouts' attention might be looking for a showcase like the WBC. But why risk injury and take time away from sprung training to represent a country the player has no connection to whatsoever? Seems like wishful thinking to me.
Registered User
I have to agree with you that it would make no sense for them. It was indeed wishful thinking alimented by some rumors heard
Registered User
I dont see how cuban defectors could play for a team like spain. I thought you can only do play for a country if;
Mother or Father is of that country
Hold a passport of that country
Born in the that country.
If a defectors team is allowed in the classic it can be a real slap in the face for cuba. Especially is that team does very well. Yet I dont see it happening.
Registered User
I like that result very much. Yet I will wait on making predications until the rosters are set. Venezuela and DR could very well be in the finals but really needs to make sure it's key players are there.
Registered User
Rally Monkey please reply off-line to my e-mail address of plowry1176@aol.com with your postal address for you to claim your contest prize.
Are any of these players of direct spanish descend,or are they citizen of Spain,and if not why would they represent Spain?
Registered User
Just so everyone's on the same page, here are the WBC's eligibility rules:
I think all of the Cuban players are eligible to play on Team Spain because of Spain's somewhat liberal naturalization laws, which allows any person who's a natural born citizen of a former Spanish colony to become a Spanish citizen after only two years of residency in Spain. Unless the naturalization law changes (or the WBC eligibility rules tighten), Team Spain will always be a landing spot for young Latin players who are hoping to get a good once-over by Major League teams during the WBC.Each player on a Federation Team's approved Provisional Roster must be eligible to participate for that Federation Team. A player will be so eligible only if:
• The player is a citizen of the Federation Team's country or territory, as evidenced by a valid passport the player holds as of January 1, 2012; or
• The player is currently a permanent legal resident of the Federation Team's country or territory, as evidenced by documentation satisfactory to WBCI and the International Baseball Federation ("IBAF"), or
• The player was born in the Federation Team's country or territory, as evidenced by a birth certificate or its equivalent ; or
• The player has one parent who is, or if deceased was, a citizen of the Federation Team's country or territory, as evidenced by a passport or other documentation satisfactory to WBCI and the IBAF; or
• The player has one parent who was born in the Federation Team's country or territory, as evidenced by a birth certificate or its equivalent; or
The player presents documentary evidence satisfactory to WBCI that, even if he has not been granted citizenship or been issued a passport, the player would be granted citizenship or a passport in due course under the laws of the Federation Team's country or territory had the player applied for such citizenship or passport. Such presentation must include documentary evidence showing to the satisfaction of WBCI that the player would be granted citizenship or a passport in due course under the laws of the nation represented by that Federation Team, had the player applied for such citizenship or passport.
Registered User
I'll leave a private message for you here. Thanks, Phil!
Playertobenamedlater
How would some of you rank all of the teams that played in the WBC Qualifiers? Based on the WBCQ performance alone the rankings might look like the following:
- Canada [3-0, +29 RD, 2 KO, 3.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .379/.455/.707 AVG/OBP/SLG]
- Taiwan [3-0, +35, 2 KO, 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .347/.504/.484 AVG/OBP/SLG]
- Brazil [3-0, +8, 0.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .316/.358/.388]
- Spain [3-1, +18, 2.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .358/.451/.453]
- Panama [2-2, +4, 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .236/.345/.325]
- Israel [2-1, +4, 3.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .235/.381/.373]
- Colombia [1-2, -1, 5.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .269/.345/.375]
- Germany [2-2, +11, 2 KO, KO'd Once, 6.98 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, .306/.422/.476]
- Nicaragua [0-2, -11, 6.75 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, .286/.351/.357]
- New Zealand [2-2, -15, 1 KO, KO'd Once, 6.39 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, .271/.379/.346]
- South Africa [1-2, -11, 5.28 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, .103/.281/.144]
- France [0-2, -11, 5.21 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, .222/.300/.264]
- Great Britain [1-2, -18, KO'd Twice, 10.88 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, .218/284/.333]
- Philippines [1-2, -14, KO'd Once, 7.20 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, .212/.287/.269]
- Czech Republic [0-2, -22, KO'd Once, 14.73 ERA, 2.32 WHIP, .259/.317/.276]
- Thailand [0-2, -16, KO'd Twice, 7.94 EA, 2.12 WHIP, .180/.275/.197]
Registered User
This is my power ranking (?) for all the WBC teams combined. The ranking includes some knowledge of baseball program in the country, and the WBC performance.
The best of the best
1. Japan
2. Venezuela
3. Korea
Top quality
4. USA
5. Cuba
6. Mexico
7. Puerto Rico
8. Dominican Rep
Decent
9. Canada
10. The Netherlands
11. Chinese Taipei
12. Australia
13. Italy
Almost there
14. Brazil
15. Panama
16. Colombia
AA level
17. China
18. Nicaragua
19. Israel
20. Spain
21. Germany
A level
22. New Zealand
23. South Africa
24. Philippines
A lot to improve
25. Great Britain
26. Czech Republic
27. France
28. Thailand
Potential Addition
29. Bahamas
30. Sweden
31. Pakistan
32. Greece
Registered User
The WBC uses tie-breakers when teams are tied in their won-lost records. This puts a premium on defense, rather than on offense. Under the WBC tie-breaker system, runs allowed per nine innings pitched, called RA/9, is calculated by the following formula : Runs Allowed times 9 divided by Innings Pitched. So a 1-0 victory is way way way better for a team than is a 16-15 victory. Here is how the 16 teams from the four Fall 2012 Qualifier Pools rank now under the WBC ranking system:
1. Taiwan --- 3 won 0 lost; RA/9 = 0.00
2. Brazil --- 3 won 0 lost; RA/9 = 1.00
3. Canada --- 3 won 0 lost; RA/9 = 3.38
4. Spain --- 3 won 1 lost; RA/9 = 3.41
5. Israel --- 2 won 1 lost; RA/9 = 4.50
6. Panama --- 2 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 3.34
7. New Zealand --- 2 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 7.84
8. Germany --- 2 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 8.80
9. Colombia --- 1 win 2 lost; RA/9 = 5.88
10. South Africa --- 1 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 6.83
11. Philippines --- 1 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 10.08
12. Britain --- 1 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 12.90
13. France --- 0 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 6.16
14. Nicaragua --- 0 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 7.88
15. Thailand --- 0 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 10.59
16. Czech --- 0 won 2 lost; RA/9 = 17.18
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks