Citi Field

[Jim Vaz]

What do you guys think of Citi Fields field angle or field footprint as opposed to Shea's? Home plate to 3rd at Shea was to the northeast, almost east while at Citi its Northwesterly, so even your typical 1:10 PM start looks like its more like 3:15 PM at old Shea or Yankee Stadium.
I really noticed it yesterday because it was so sunny and clear.
I like it because it seems to eliminate the shadows that were used to seeing. I can't remember how it looks in the high summer sun but I would figure right now were close.

[robardin]

I think it just moves the shadow time later. It also depends on what month of the year it is.

Here's a shot of David Wright at the plate in late September last year (the second to last game of the season) at Citi Field around 3:45pm, just before he hit a 3-run go-ahead homer:



And the top of the next inning, when the Nationals were batting around 3:50pm:




Bottom line - I think it's great for 1:10pm and 7:10pm games for most of the baseball season, and makes for a shadow over home plate at the start of any FOX 4:10pm games. The shadows only reach home plate as early at 3:45pm in late September, I was at yesterday's day game and the shadows were not there over home plate to end the game around 4:00pm.

[trepye]

So Jason Bay's drive on Wednesday was not well hit?

Obviously not enough to clear the wall, same wall that Tulowitzcki cleared 4 times in 4games. Dont bring up Bay he has been a feeble hitter with an even feebler mental makeup. Hitting is not just trying to hit it out of the park everytime, yet this is what Bay tries to do on a daily basis with his absurd overswings.

I swear, what will it take for people to realize that this is not the 19th century and Ty Cobb anymore! This is the era of slugging.

Did you watch any of last season?

Only two teams in modern baseball history won with speed and singles hitting (1982 Cardinals and 2010 Giants). No team wins today without a power threat.

Umm....isnt 2010 considered today???

Even the Singles hitting 1980s Cardinals had Jack Clark. Jesus Christ.

Mets have Ike Davis who hits REAL homeruns. If there was no such thing as outfield walls he could round the bases twice he hits them so far, this ballpark is not a problem for him. Strawberry is in the same category; REAL homerun hitters, not hitters that exploit short fences/distances.

[Jim Vaz]

I think it just moves the shadow time later. It also depends on what month of the year it is.

Here's a shot of David Wright at the plate in late September last year (the second to last game of the season) at Citi Field around 3:45pm, just before he hit a 3-run go-ahead homer:



And the top of the next inning, when the Nationals were batting around 3:50pm:




Bottom line - I think it's great for 1:10pm and 7:10pm games for most of the baseball season, and makes for a shadow over home plate at the start of any FOX 4:10pm games. The shadows only reach home plate as early at 3:45pm in late September, I was at yesterday's day game and the shadows were not there over home plate to end the game around 4:00pm.

Oh yes you're right, but yea since its mostly only affecting 4:00 games then its not so bad because they are far less.

[Jim Vaz]

Obviously not enough to clear the wall, same wall that Tulowitzcki cleared 4 times in 4games. Dont bring up Bay he has been a feeble hitter with an even feebler mental makeup. Hitting is not just trying to hit it out of the park everytime, yet this is what Bay tries to do on a daily basis with his absurd overswings.


Did you watch any of last season?


Umm....isnt 2010 considered today???

Mets have Ike Davis who hits REAL homeruns. If there was no such thing as outfield walls he could round the bases twice he hits them so far, this ballpark is not a problem for him. Strawberry is in the same category; REAL homerun hitters, not hitters that exploit short fences/distances.

Yea it is interesting how the home run hitters from other teams have found ways to get balls out of Citi, and yet our light hitting squad has had issues.

However on the flip side I do still think that Citi fields walls in come spots can come in a little.

[robardin]

I swear, what will it take for people to realize that this is not the 19th century and Ty Cobb anymore! This is the era of slugging.
...
Only two teams in modern baseball history won with speed and singles hitting (1982 Cardinals and 2010 Giants). No team wins today without a power threat.

No argument here about whether or not players should try to hit HRs, or whether teams should view power as an essential component of a winning lineup.

The question is, why do you think a home ballpark dictates whether a team hits home runs or not? It doesn't. Do the walls pick up a bat? No. The players do.

The Mets are not lacking in power because of Citi Field. They are lacking in power because they are lacking in power hitting players.

With David Wright and Ike Davis are out, Carlos Beltran is basically the ONLY hitter in the current Mets lineup who can project to hit 30 HRs over a full season. And that's assuming he will play a full season; he hasn't actually hit 30+ HRs since 2008, due to not playing a whole lot in 2009 and 2010. The Mets are underpowered even on paper.

Also, not only do the Mets play half their games on the road, roughly half of the plate appearances at Citi Field are taken by the opposing team. (Probably MORE than half, given the state of the Mets' pitching.) Making it easier to hit home runs would therefore benefit the opponents MORE than it would the Mets. Why do you want to do this?

This is the danger of associative thinking:

1 - The Mets hit lots of homers in 2006-2008
2 - The Mets moved to Citi Field in 2009
3 - Since 2009 the Mets are in the bottom of the NL in HRs
4 - Citi Field has high / distant walls
5 - It must be the fault of Citi Field's wall dimensions
6 - Fix the wall dimensions and you fix the Mets

First, going from #5 to #6 is reversing logical inferences so even if #5 were actually true, that doesn't make #6 true. It would "fix" the Mets' home game hitting stats, while also "fixing" (boosting) the visitors' stats by a roughly equal factor.

Second, #5 is apparently easy to refute because in 2009, when the Mets were literally dead last in HRs in all of MLB (the team lead went to Dan Murphy with 12), Citi Field was actually 12th out of the 30 MLB parks (and 4th out of 16 NL parks) in the number of HRs hit per game, averaging more than one per game! Was it the Mets' pitching? Not really - the 2009 Mets pitching staff gave up 158 HRs, good for 10th out of 16 (where the 1st out of 16 gave up the MOST home runs).

So if it's not the walls that are to blame for the drop in Mets home runs, what is? Let's check the most obvious answer first: the players with the bats in their hands. The 2006-2008 Mets had a highly productive trio of Wright, Delgado and Beltran, and even Reyes contributed a lot of pop out of the leadoff spot while playing nearly every day. Beltran and Reyes have missed tons of time since 2008, and Wright has declined as a hitter overall. Meanwhile, Delgado's power was replaced with a rotating set of players in Gary Sheffield, Jeff Francoeur and Jason Bay... Who was brought in to fill Delgado's role in the lineup, but has hit worse in terms of OPS in 2011 than Luis Castillo did over his 3 years as a Met. Big drop off there.

Here are the sum of HRs hit by the top 5 Mets HR hitters per season since 2006:

2006 - 142 HRs
Beltran (41), Delgado (38), Wright (26), Reyes (19), Valentin (18)

2007 - 112 HRs
Beltran (33), Wright (30), Delgado (24), Alou (13), Reyes (12)

2008 - 126 HRs
Delgado (38), Wright (33), Beltran (27), Reyes (16), Church (12)

2009 - 52 HRs
Murphy (12), Wright (10), Sheffield (10), Beltran (10), Francoeur (10)

2010 - 82 HRs
Wright (29), Davis (19), Barajas (12), Reyes (11), Pagan (11)

If you pulled in the walls of Citi Field to 200 feet from home plate then yeah, I guess even Ruben Tejada could hit double digit HRs. But the opposing teams would tee off like you wouldn't believe.

Yea it is interesting how the home run hitters from other teams have found ways to get balls out of Citi, and yet our light hitting squad has had issues.

However on the flip side I do still think that Citi fields walls in come spots can come in a little.

Agree, the ballpark can stand some tweaking. I support the idea of moving home plate up to shorten the distances a little bit. It's the repeated statement of "the Mets need more homers, therefore move the walls in" that is so illogical that it drives me nuts.

[Strawman]

No argument here about whether or not players should try to hit HRs, or whether teams should view power as an essential component of a winning lineup.

The question is, why do you think a home ballpark dictates whether a team hits home runs or not? It doesn't. Do the walls pick up a bat? No. The players do.

The Mets are not lacking in power because of Citi Field. They are lacking in power because they are lacking in power hitting players.

With David Wright and Ike Davis are out, Carlos Beltran is basically the ONLY hitter in the current Mets lineup who can project to hit 30 HRs over a full season. And that's assuming he will play a full season; he hasn't actually hit 30+ HRs since 2008, due to not playing a whole lot in 2009 and 2010. The Mets are underpowered even on paper.

Also, not only do the Mets play half their games on the road, roughly half of the plate appearances at Citi Field are taken by the opposing team. (Probably MORE than half, given the state of the Mets' pitching.) Making it easier to hit home runs would therefore benefit the opponents MORE than it would the Mets. Why do you want to do this?

This is the danger of associative thinking:

1 - The Mets hit lots of homers in 2006-2008
2 - The Mets moved to Citi Field in 2009
3 - Since 2009 the Mets are in the bottom of the NL in HRs
4 - Citi Field has high / distant walls
5 - It must be the fault of Citi Field's wall dimensions
6 - Fix the wall dimensions and you fix the Mets

First, going from #5 to #6 is reversing logical inferences so even if #5 were actually true, that doesn't make #6 true. It would "fix" the Mets' home game hitting stats, while also "fixing" (boosting) the visitors' stats by a roughly equal factor.

Second, #5 is apparently easy to refute because in 2009, when the Mets were literally dead last in HRs in all of MLB (the team lead went to Dan Murphy with 12), Citi Field was actually 12th out of the 30 MLB parks (and 4th out of 16 NL parks) in the number of HRs hit per game, averaging more than one per game! Was it the Mets' pitching? Not really - the 2009 Mets pitching staff gave up 158 HRs, good for 10th out of 16 (where the 1st out of 16 gave up the MOST home runs).

So if it's not the walls that are to blame for the drop in Mets home runs, what is? Let's check the most obvious answer first: the players with the bats in their hands. The 2006-2008 Mets had a highly productive trio of Wright, Delgado and Beltran, and even Reyes contributed a lot of pop out of the leadoff spot while playing nearly every day. Beltran and Reyes have missed tons of time since 2008, and Wright has declined as a hitter overall. Meanwhile, Delgado's power was replaced with a rotating set of players in Gary Sheffield, Jeff Francoeur and Jason Bay... Who was brought in to fill Delgado's role in the lineup, but has hit worse in terms of OPS in 2011 than Luis Castillo did over his 3 years as a Met. Big drop off there.

Here are the sum of HRs hit by the top 5 Mets HR hitters per season since 2006:

2006 - 142 HRs
Beltran (41), Delgado (38), Wright (26), Reyes (19), Valentin (18)

2007 - 112 HRs
Beltran (33), Wright (30), Delgado (24), Alou (13), Reyes (12)

2008 - 126 HRs
Delgado (38), Wright (33), Beltran (27), Reyes (16), Church (12)

2009 - 52 HRs
Murphy (12), Wright (10), Sheffield (10), Beltran (10), Francoeur (10)

2010 - 82 HRs
Wright (29), Davis (19), Barajas (12), Reyes (11), Pagan (11)

If you pulled in the walls of Citi Field to 200 feet from home plate then yeah, I guess even Ruben Tejada could hit double digit HRs. But the opposing teams would tee off like you wouldn't believe.




Agree, the ballpark can stand some tweaking. I support the idea of moving home plate up to shorten the distances a little bit. It's the repeated statement of "the Mets need more homers, therefore move the walls in" that is so illogical that it drives me nuts.

Great post Robardin - agree with everything in it. You're fast becoming the Nate Silver of BBF! I too agree with a tweaking of the distances - I'd like to see them close over/even up the Mo's Zone cut-out. I actually love the LF walls as they are.

[Blue387]

2010 - 82 HRs
Wright (29), Davis (19), Barajas (12), Reyes (11), Pagan (11)

I think you should distinguish between home runs hit on the road and at Citi Field.

Davis hits one into McCovey Cove:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10010065

Pagan homers off Livan Hernandez:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8141357

[robardin]

I think you should distinguish between home runs hit on the road and at Citi Field.

Davis hits one into McCovey Cove:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10010065

Pagan homers off Livan Hernandez:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8141357

It'd be interesting to see the home/away splits for these guys, true, but my point overall was that the 2009 and 2010 Mets were not comparable to the 2008 Mets in terms of power just by looking at the names in the list. The HR tallies shouldn't really surprise anyone, except for David Wright's total of 10 for 2009 when he didn't really miss that much time. For 2010, take away Delgado and Beltran and remove 1/3 of the season from Reyes, and add back in Davis and a struggling Bay who also missed a lot of time... And the #3 HR hitter suddenly becomes a part-time catcher who was traded by the end of the season, and the #4/#5 HR hitter is a tie between two players who are prototypical leadoff batters.

There's the problem to focus on from a team perspective. Moving the walls around should be thought of in the context of "how can we make the ballpark experience better for the spectators", not "how does this end up contributing to the team's ability to win more games".

[trepye]

Pagan homers off Livan Hernandez:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8141357

The very BEST major league baseball has to offer, yanked away throughout the years in favor of outfield seating and mental indolence.
Shame.

[AJbaseball00024]

I am not denying that we do not have many power hitters in this lineup. This roster is filled with Swiss cheese holes, as 2009 proved. We have no depth at all. However, you cannot deny that this ballpark has played a huge role in Wright and Bay's decline.

[AJbaseball00024]

Here is something many people have forgotten. When this ballpark opened, we had THREE power hitters in this lineup. Why build a park that kills their strengths? If you are playing in such a huge park like this one, why have three power hitters in your lineup, and then sign a fourth one the following year? This logic is one of many reasons why fans want this ownership group gone.

[AJbaseball00024]

In case you are wondering my idea for a dimension change, I would remove the Mo's Zone and make right field a short porch (315-320). I would keep the rest of the park as it is. It is not that expensive and it would help our offense in a huge way.

[StrawberryField]

Mets Pitchers have given up 22 HR's at home this year. 35 on the road.

Mets Pitchers gave up 47 HR's at home last year best in the majors by far...the least a Mets staff has given up at home since the 1988 Mets. They gave up 88 HR's on the road last year 3rd worst in the league.

So I'd say that Citi Field has had a big effect on the power totals of the opposition.

2009-2010 HR's allowed by the Mets staff
Home 69
road 123

So it seems a team is almost twice as likely to hit a HR off the Mets when not playing at Citi Field.

So can we stop with the "the other team doesn't have a problem knocking them" out cause they do.

[StrawberryField]

Oh, and the 2010 San Francisco Giants hit 162 HR's good for 6th in the league....They also stole 55 bases as a team good for 15th in the N.L. so where guys are coming to the conclusion that the Giants offense was based on singles and speed is beyond me!

[robardin]

I am not denying that we do not have many power hitters in this lineup. This roster is filled with Swiss cheese holes, as 2009 proved. We have no depth at all. However, you cannot deny that this ballpark has played a huge role in Wright and Bay's decline.

I do deny it, or rather, I see no evidence of it. Wright declined in 2009 and Bay in 2010, both their first years hitting at Citi Field. So what? 2009 was also the first year at Citi Field for all the other Mets batters, who didn't decline as sharply - and, Wright rebounded fairly well in 2010. Jason Bay has been just as miserable on the road as at Citi Field and has gotten worse in 2011 from 2010. Much more likely to be due to the concussion than Fear Of Citi Field Walls.

If playing 81 home games at Citi Field breaks a batter mentally so much that they're knocked out of whack even when away from Citi Field, then it must be something that only happened to the two of them, and doesn't seem to happen to visiting players. Like Troy Tulowitzki earlier this year. Nooooo problems there.

Here is something many people have forgotten. When this ballpark opened, we had THREE power hitters in this lineup. Why build a park that kills their strengths? If you are playing in such a huge park like this one, why have three power hitters in your lineup, and then sign a fourth one the following year? This logic is one of many reasons why fans want this ownership group gone.

Please stop thinking the ballpark dimensions make batters into power hitters or turns power hitters into strikeout swingers. It's just not true. Not for Citi Field or any other "pitcher's ballpark". Ballparks don't break players' swings, unless they're remarkably weak minded, which is probably not the case with veteran and professional players. Conversely it won't make non-power batters suddenly hit 20 HRs, unless they're 70+% hit at Citi Field, which would be very distorting and would only make opponents' weaker hitters slug more out too.

It really puzzles me how people can think this way. There is a clear lack of power in the lineup. That is a personnel problem, and to fix that requires personnel moves.

There may also be ballpark problems - aesthetic or otherwise - which would be best addressed by changing the ballpark dimensions. If the hitters feel that moving the walls a few feet closer would not be unbalancing and finally shut some of these "the walls are ridiculous" shills up, then great - it would also solve the problem where the best seats in the house can't see both outfield corners. Two birds with one stone. And if you feel that 16 foot high walls that forever render Endy style over-the-wall catches impossible is a travesty, I'll buy that too - because it is one of the most glorious things to see an outfielder do, and fans at Citi Field will basically never see it.

Those are ballpark problems. You fix ballpark problems with ballpark changes. You fix personnel problems with personnel changes. In my opinion, the Mets need to do both. That doesn't mean that they're logically or causally related. Mixing the two together doesn't make for a stronger case, just a stupider one.

In case you are wondering my idea for a dimension change, I would remove the Mo's Zone and make right field a short porch (315-320). I would keep the rest of the park as it is. It is not that expensive and it would help our offense in a huge way.

I hate the Mo Zone too. But I don't think I'd like a "short porch", I dislike the cheapies that get hit at Yankee Stadium. Remember that this wouldn't just help "our" offense, it would help ALL offenses including the opponents, so unless the Mets were stacked with lefty power or (like the Yankees of old) had a lefty slugger that was miles ahead of the rest of the league like Babe Ruth, it'd probably hurt more than help.

[robardin]

If the hitters feel that moving the walls a few feet closer would not be unbalancing and finally shut some of these "the walls are ridiculous" shills up, then great - it would also solve the problem where the best seats in the house can't see both outfield corners. Two birds with one stone.

To this point, here's a pic I took on Thursday from seats in Caesars Gold, almost right in front of the SNY broadcast booth - I'm about one section over, in 318 where section 319 is directly in front of Ron, Keith and Gary.

Even from just about DIRECTLY behind home plate, you cannot see down EITHER chalk line all the way to the corner. Every time a ball is hit into the corner I have to look at the ump gesturing before I know if it's fair or foul, or at a video screen. From seats right behind home plate! That's just WRONG!!


6/2/2011 - Sec 318, Row 6 by robardin, on Flickr

[StrawberryField]

This will be the 3rd year in a row that a Mets hitter will fail to hit 30+ HR's. The Last time that happened was from 1977-1981.

30 year! Must be because of all those power hitter the Mets had from 1982-2008, and the lack of them from 2009-2011.

I have yet to hear one major league hitter say this park plays fair or doesn't hurt hitter. Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield have both said forget about anybody consistently putting up 30+HR seasons playing in this park. Those two have only hit about 900 HR's combined so I think they know a thing or two about the longball.

[Paul W]

seems like other squads that come in for a few days at a time can win despite the walls, shadows, wind etc.

the problem isn't with the building, it's with the players.
this me(t)ss squad is the epitome of inconstancy, flashes of brilliance in between long stretches of mediocrity.
it's a game of adjustments and the best know how to adjust to changing circumstances.
collins will lose his voice (and mind) if he has to jolt 'em awake a few times a week.
don't boo 'em, they're doing the best they can-YIKES!...

[StrawberryField]

lets say Prince Fielder becomes a free agent. His contract is 120 million over 6 years. Which teams do you think get the most value in terms of numbers.

Would he put up better numbers playing for the Red Sox or the Mets?
Would he put up better numbers playing for the Yankees or the Mets?
Would he put up better numbers playing for the Phillies or the Mets?
Would he put up better numbers playing for the Cubs or the Mets?
Would he put up better numbers playing for the Rangers or the Mets?

I could go on and on. Bottom line is, I think he be a more productive hitter playing for all these teams mentioned plus many others than he would playing for the Mets. Thus the Mets would get less production for 120 million dollars than other teams.

Historically teams move fences in....not back. There's a reason.

[Ralf]

This will be the 3rd year in a row that a Mets hitter will fail to hit 30+ HR's. The Last time that happened was from 1977-1981.

30 year! Must be because of all those power hitter the Mets had from 1982-2008, and the lack of them from 2009-2011.

I have yet to hear one major league hitter say this park plays fair or doesn't hurt hitter. Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield have both said forget about anybody consistently putting up 30+HR seasons playing in this park. Those two have only hit about 900 HR's combined so I think they know a thing or two about the longball.

This.
People are just trying to be contrarian by claiming the park doesn't have an effect on the power numbers and psyche of the actual people who play the game. You can analyze and manipulate stats anyway you want, but it won't change the fact the park dimension does negatively affect power.

[trepye]

You can analyze and manipulate stats anyway you want, but it won't change the fact the park dimension does negatively affect power.

Its funny how you speak of manipulation then go on to manipulate.... The parks dimensions do not affect the stregth of a hitter (ar robardin has been saying), shortening the fence does not increase power, it increases the handicapp to score on a hit ball that gets to a certain distance (see statement below on HR distances). If you move it up the fences does not make them more powerful, only the apperance of such description. Dont use the word power because fences do not make hitters more powerful, their talents as hitters does.

Wanna see straight talk, then speak straight.

[alpineinc]

Yes, the psyche.

While cold data doesn't necessarily reveal an adverse effect, these are human beings out there, making a split-second decision on every pitch with a combination of adrenaline and raw emotion, with constant debate about how big the ballpark is in the backs of their minds (think of how many times most Mets have been asked about it by the media). More at bats (home team), the more it could creep into their heads. Without the human element continually contrasting or even contradicting what statistics tell us, it wouldn't be baseball, would it? And we're only in CF's third year, a small sample by any definition, stats or otherwise - if there are only two pronounced examples of the park's adverse psychological effect on a ballplayer to this point, does it mean that it doesn't exist? Steve Blass lost it in '73 without any other likely explanation but emotional; still happened.

Beltran hits one off the top half of the Great Wall on Thursday - next at bat or game does he think "get 'em next time", or does he think "even Ralph Kiner thinks the walls are too high". Probably both, but both are likely brought to the plate with him. Game is 90% mental, as a wise sage once said.

[mandrake]

To this point, here's a pic I took on Thursday from seats in Caesars Gold, almost right in front of the SNY broadcast booth - I'm about one section over, in 318 where section 319 is directly in front of Ron, Keith and Gary.

Even from just about DIRECTLY behind home plate, you cannot see down EITHER chalk line all the way to the corner. Every time a ball is hit into the corner I have to look at the ump gesturing before I know if it's fair or foul, or at a video screen. From seats right behind home plate! That's just WRONG!!


6/2/2011 - Sec 318, Row 6 by robardin, on Flickr

I was in 317 row 5. I would have come over and said hello if I knew you were there !

Anyway, I stopped down in the Delta Club during the game and I asked security about the 'rules' for the delta patio and he said that the tickets have to specifically say 'delta patio'. If this is true, it must be new? If your tickets give you delta club access, you still can't use the patio?

[robardin]

This.
People are just trying to be contrarian by claiming the park doesn't have an effect on the power numbers and psyche of the actual people who play the game. You can analyze and manipulate stats anyway you want, but it won't change the fact the park dimension does negatively affect power.

You don't quite get my point, I guess.

Obviously it would be harder to hit a home run if the walls are 420 feet away versus 320 feet away, no matter what kind of hitter you are. Move them in to 200 feet away and even I could be a home run hitter. So yes, someone like, say, Albert Pujols who hits 45 HRs as a righty-batting slugger would probably hit a few less per year if he played half of his games at Citi Field which has a very far/high left field wall.

But it's not like it would "break" him. Does anyone seriously believe that if the Cardinals had mirrored Citi Field's dimensions in St. Louis over the last 5 years that he'd have, for lack of a better term, "pulled a Wright" or "pulled a Bay"? Or that he'd somehow hit fewer HRs in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field as a visiting player in the same division with an unbalanced game schedule?

The power outage the Mets have seen in the past 2 years MAY, therefore, be attributed to Citi Field in some small measure... But the far greater measure is attributed to the players simply not hitting for power, period. And the proof of that to me is that they were by and large just as underpowered away from Citi Field as at it, as compared not only themselves but to the rest of the league.

Citi Field is intentionally built as a "pitcher's park", there's no question about that. The question is, is it UNFAIRLY so?

That is SEPARATE from the question of, "what impact has this had on the Mets' hitters?" where the implied assumption is that "if the people had hit more homers at Citi field in 2009 or 2010 it'd somehow have favored the Mets and they'd have won more games". If your point is that the Mets would have hit 20 more HRs as a team at Citi Field but still come out a 79 win team in 2010, then I apologize for misreading your statement.

Anyway, let's look at 2009 and 2010. Let's arbitrarily define a "HR power hitter" as a guy who hit 25+ HRs over the season. On Yahoo! sports you can click on the players' names and see their season splits by ballpark, which makes this very easy to look at. I've attached a spreadsheet of the data for all the NL batters who hit 25+ HRs in 2009 and 2010 (different guys are on both lists so the composite averages all of them in). My favorite way to judge a HR hitter is "plate appearances per home run", meaning, out of N times he comes to the plate, how many times did he knock it out of the park?

2009-10 NL HR sluggers - split at Citi Field.xls

In 2009, the league's best power hitters on average hit BETTER at Citi Field than overall. The 2009 class of NL elite sluggers hit 758 HRs in 14,595 plate appearances overall (19.25 PA/HR), but hit a HR every 15.44 plate apperances at Citi Field. Not a single one of them was a Met.

In 2010, that reversed sharply. The NL average "25+ HR slugger" needed 21.49 PAs to hit a HR overall, but 30.92 PAs at Citi Field to hit one out. Wow. Jason Bay may feel slightly vindicated.

However, over both seasons it evens out to basically what I would WANT to see in a "pitcher's ballpark": where it took 20.35 PAs for the "2009-2010 composite NL HR slugger" to hit a home run overall, it took about 22 PAs at Citi Field. I think that's EXACTLY right.

What will 2011 play out like? We won't know for a few more months, but so far it's playing right down the middle.