BBF Progressive HoF Election: 1951

[leecemark]

--This a second request to get back on topic. If you want to discuss players long since elected please start a thread to do so.

[Fielding Marshall]

Due to my recent busy schedule, I've lately just been drive-by voting and reading the comments. However, I can't let this slide. Please, for goodness' sake, read this post:

--Dizzy Dean breezed to election in his second year on the ballot despite a rather brief career. THere are several contemporary pitchers whose resumes seem quite comparable to his IMO that are not receiving much attention here. Dean did have the best peak of the group and if Fame is an important criteria for you he had that over all of them, but for pure value he may be at the bottom of the list (I did vote for him myself so this is not an anti-Dean post - it is a pro-other 30s pitchers post).

Dizzy Dean 130 ERA+ 1967
Lon Warneke 119 ERA+ 2782 IP
Wes Ferrell 116 ERA+ 2623 IP (and best hitting pitcher of the 20th century)
Lefty Gomez 125 ERA+ 2503 IP (two Triple Crowns)
Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ 2826 IP

--I am going to focus on the member of this group whose ERA+ was closest to Dean and who pitched the most of anybody in the group, Tommy Bridges. Bridges peak wasn't quite as high as Dean's - mostly because Dizzy was such a huge horse in his best years. He did have a prety darn good peak and more high quality years though.
--Bridges was the ace/workhorse of the Tigers back to back pennant winners in 1934-5. He was even better in 1936. The team collapsed due to age and injuries, but Bridges still led the league in wins and strikeouts - his third 20+ win season in a row. He led in strikeouts again in 1937. Bridges threw hard, but his out pitch was a curve widely considered to be the best of its time.
--By 1940 Bridges was no longer working as many innings but he was still a front line starter as the Tigers won their third pennant in 7 years - interrupting a Yankee dynasty that won 7 of 8. Bridges was still pitching very well when he was called up for duty in WWII. He missed the 43, 44 and most of 45 seasons to military duty or his counting stats would look much better.
--The war effectively ended his MLB career as the Tigers had come up with a very good group of young pitchers (Newhouser, Trout, Truck, Hutchinson, Benton) in the interim and he was unable to reclaim a rotation. He did still have some life left in his arm thoguh and he demonstrated with several good year in the PCL after the Tigers let him go. Had the war not cut his career short he would quite possibly have enjoyed a third act to hsi career as a "Sunday pitcher", the route taken by Ted Lyons and many other aging pitchers saved to work in the double headers teams featured most Sundays. Had that been the case he'd most likley have a plaque in Cooperstown today. It shouldn't prevent him from having one in our Hall.

[SABR Matt]

Did you have a specific complaint about that post or are you just enamored with it?

[Fielding Marshall]

More like I'm a little frustrated that someone made a good case for a player, but you guys have seemingly ignored it and are still discussing 19th century players.

And yes, I'm "enamored" with it. I've already printed it out and framed it on my wall.

[SABR Matt]

More like I'm a little frustrated that someone made a good case for a player, but you guys have seemingly ignored it and are still discussing 19th century players.

And yes, I'm "enamored" with it. I've already printed it out and framed it on my wall.

I can't speak for everyone here...but I read that post, disagreed with it on practical grounds, but opted not to comment as at the time there were other posters asking me for my opinion and/or data.

I do not recall whether I commented on Bridges directly earlier in this thread and I don't feel like sifting through those comments again...but the problem I have with Bridges is the complete and utter lack of a dominant peak. He was just pretty good in a relatively short career without any bells or whistles.

Yr	Lg	Off	Def	Pit	O-M	D-M	P-M	Wins
1933	AL	0.18	0.23	7.67	-0.2	0.2	12.2	8.08
1940	AL	-0.48	0.19	7.58	-1.4	0.2	12.5	7.29
1934	AL	-0.72	0.10	7.74	-2.2	0.0	11.8	7.12
1936	AL	-0.36	0.42	6.69	-1.5	0.6	9.3	6.75
1939	AL	-0.18	0.03	6.23	-0.9	-0.1	9.7	6.08
1943	AL	0.18	0.26	4.40	-0.1	0.4	6.2	4.84
1935	AL	0.05	0.14	4.45	-0.6	0.0	5.1	4.64
1941	AL	-0.52	0.36	4.75	-1.4	0.6	7.5	4.59
1937	AL	-0.34	0.48	4.09	-1.3	0.8	4.7	4.23
1942	AL	-1.21	0.29	4.39	-2.9	0.4	6.4	3.47
1932	AL	-0.43	0.13	3.49	-1.4	0.1	4.3	3.19
1938	AL	-0.36	0.11	2.05	-1.1	0.1	1.9	1.80
1930	AL	0.06	0.01	1.21	0.0	0.0	1.9	1.28
1931	AL	-0.37	0.16	1.23	-1.2	0.2	0.0	1.02

Compare that to Dean:

Yr	Lg	Off	Def	Pit	O-M	D-M	P-M	Wins
1934	NL	-0.29	0.14	12.12	-1.4	0.0	20.0	11.97
1933	NL	0.12	0.06	7.57	-0.5	-0.1	11.1	7.75
1932	NL	0.25	0.13	7.24	-0.2	0.0	10.5	7.62
1936	NL	-0.25	0.00	7.79	-1.3	-0.2	11.2	7.54
1935	NL	0.14	-0.02	7.27	-0.6	-0.3	10.0	7.39
1937	NL	0.03	-0.01	5.65	-0.4	-0.2	8.5	5.67
1938	NL	-0.22	0.06	4.88	-0.6	0.1	8.8	4.72
1939	NL	-0.24	0.07	2.49	-0.7	0.1	3.7	2.32
1930	NL	0.00	0.00	1.69	0.0	0.0	3.3	1.69

Yes, Dean lasted even less time, but here's another example of people abusing the ERA+ * IP as though all 2500 IP, 125 ERA+ pitchers had the same value. They don't and debates shouldn't be won or really even constructed around that kind of logic.

[Fielding Marshall]

Maybe I'm missing something, but looking at your numbers, if you take away 1934 for Dean (and one year fluctuations are fairly common; if you want the true worth of a player, you look at multiple years), an argument can be made that Bridges was the superior pitcher.

In any event, the real question is whether Bridges belongs in the Hall. Now, I'm a big hall person, but I'm also a peak person...I'm wondering, what benchmark would you use to determine a Hall-worthy peak?

[Fielding Marshall]

Yes, Dean lasted even less time, but here's another example of people abusing the ERA+ * IP as though all 2500 IP, 125 ERA+ pitchers had the same value.

Very true, but the 2500 IP, 125 ERA+ pitchers aren't altogether common...you should definitely look at individual seasons for all players, but those kind of pitchers imply a peak of sustained excellence. If you know of that kind of pitcher who isn't at worst borderline-out, please let me know.

[bambambaseball]

The one pitcher on the balott who I think we should be talking about the most if Wes Ferrell. The guy was the best hitting pitcher in the 20th century who stayed a pitcher and 116 ERA+ in 2623 IP is similar to a number of pitchers elected. Are people bothered by the fact that he had 193 games? 'cause its weird that a guy that had a 68 WARP3 as a batter and was as dominant of a pitcher as he was would have troubel getting elected!

[SABR Matt]

I agree that Bridges is, at worst, borderline out...I have him out due to lack of high-peak, but I won't throw a fuss at people voting for him.

As for Wes Ferrell, offensively, he was a very good hitting pitcher, but there have been others who lasted longer and were nearly as accomplished at the plate. Still, the trade up from a typical -20 offensive marker to Ferrell's +9.5 is not something that should be ignored. I have him on the bubble (and voted for him in this election), but he's not getting in just because he was a good hitting pitcher...he's getting in because he had a big peak:

Yr	Lg	Off	Def	Pit	O-M	D-M	P-M	Wins
1935	AL	1.95	0.44	8.07	2.8	0.6	11.7	10.46
1931	AL	1.77	0.60	7.86	2.7	0.9	11.9	10.23
1930	AL	0.78	0.24	9.14	0.7	0.3	14.2	10.16
1936	AL	0.68	0.29	6.60	0.4	0.4	9.0	7.57
1932	AL	0.00	0.50	5.88	-0.9	0.8	7.8	6.38
1929	AL	0.23	0.31	5.23	-0.2	0.4	7.1	5.77
1934	AL	0.85	0.13	4.51	1.1	0.1	6.5	5.49
1933	AL	1.44	0.75	1.52	1.9	1.2	0.3	3.71
1937	AL	0.97	0.27	1.95	1.0	0.3	0.0	3.19

Not to mention the fact that he was a very good fielder.

[bambambaseball]

Wes Ferrell was an excellent all around athlete. The HOF dropped the ball when they elected his brother and not him.

[Ace Venom]

We've elected Bill Dickey in his first year of eligibility with 94.29% of the vote and Red Ruffing in his second year of eligibility with 82.86% of the vote. The Contributor's Committee elected manager Joe McCarthy and Commissioner Kennesaw Mountain Landis. The Negro League Players VC ballot and 1952 ballot will be posted later today.

[Second Base Coach]

Finally... after more than 210 posts, we can begin again. (note there were only 35 votes) That was torture.