bunting a runner in from third.

[brett]

If a batter successfully bunts a runner in from third with 1 out, getting out himself, is he going to be producing or costing net runs. Doesn't it depend on the run environment?

[gingerbreadmann]

Maybe marginally but I think in at least nearly all situations he is producing net runs. From the RE table in "The Book," at the beginning the team is expected to score 0.983 runs, with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. With nobody on and 2 out, the team is expected to score .117 runs, but the run also came in. So, the batter/bunter produced 1.117 - 0.983 = .134 runs.

Even using the NCAA RE tables at Boyd's World, which is obviously a much higher run environment, he produces (1 + 0.11) - 1.08 = .03 runs.

You can try different environments using Tango's Markov page but I'm thinking that in any plausible real life environment he is going to produce runs in that situation.

[Tango Tiger]

The question is really: "What is the run value of a sac fly?". I agree it'll be positive. The more important question: "What is the WIN value of a sac fly?". I think I remember finding cases where the sac fly will have negative win value.

An OF needs to know this, in the cases where he gets a deep fly ball (in foul territory) that is guaranteed to score the runner. He has to decide whether to catch the ball or not (though I have never seen an OF ever not catch it, likely on the fear that the ball may actually be in fair territory).

[SABR Matt]

Yes...this is a trade-off between taking one sure run and sacrificing 99% of your existing probability of scoring more than one run...or taking a slightly bigger chance that you won't score any runs but attempting to preserve your chance for a big inning.

How badly do you want that one run? If it's a tie game in the 8th and you've got Rivera warming up in the pen, you want that one run very badly. If it's the top of the first, maybe you let your guy swing away.