The 13 Untouchables from SI.com

[9RoyHobbsRF]

As the July 31 non-waiver deadline approaches, names of baseball prospects loom larger than usual. Their names pop up in reporters' notebooks and on the crawl on ESPN as trade rumors come and go.

The word "untouchable" comes up a lot with certain prospects; no general manager wants to be on the wrong end of a deal like the Indians-Expos trade back in 2002. With Montreal facing possible contraction but also challenging for a wild-card spot, general manager Omar Minaya acquired Bartolo Colon from Cleveland in a deal that sent prospects Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore back to the Tribe. While Phillips had to go to Cincinnati to find his way as a player, Lee won a Cy Young Award in 2008 and Sizemore is a three-time All-Star and the face of the Indians franchise. Meanwhile, the Expos didn't make the playoffs, and haven't come close to developing players of Lee and Sizemore's caliber since trading them away.

With the salaries of today's players, finding homegrown talent that give clubs cost control, at least for a few years, has become a priority for most franchises. Even the game's revenue giants, the Red Sox and Yankees, are loathe to trade away top prospects.

No one loves prospects like Baseball America, but even we have a hard time thinking any of these guys are untouchable if the player in return is 1 1/2 years of Roy Halladay, at a fair market value. Using the teams' definition, though, we did come up with a list of prospects whose value to their organizations probably precludes them from being traded in the next few weeks.

Cue the Eliot Ness music -- here are our Untouchables:

Buster Posey, C, Giants

Posey was the 2008 College Player of the Year and has had a strong start to his pro career, batting .326/.428/.540 with 13 homers at high Class-A San Jose. Like most premium 2008 draftees, he signed late and would have to be a player to be named in a deal (players can't be traded until one year after signing their first pro contract). Recently promoted to Triple-A Fresno, Posey is expected to take over for impending free agent Bengie Molina next year. The Giants need offense, but won't deal Posey to get it.

Jhoulys Chacin and Esmil Rogers, RHPs, Rockies

These are two best homegrown arms in Colorado's system, with Chacin especially interesting due to the Aaron Cook-like sink on his fastball. Rogers, a converted outfielder, beat Chacin to Triple-A. They should follow Ubaldo Jimenez's path to the Rockies rotation, but if Colorado-native Halladay were available for these two guys and not much else, the Rockies would have to make that trade ... wouldn't they?

Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton, RHPs, Astros

Houston is rebuilding its awful farm system the last two years with new scouting director Chris Heck, and two of the keys are these two 2008 high school products. The Astros are making another surprise charge in the weak National League Central but can't spare this duo. Lyles ranks third in the South Atlantic League in strikeouts while going 5-8 with a 3.25 ERA. Seaton ranks fifth in the league in ERA (2.51) with a 7-8 record. Since the Astros paid the duo a combined $1.63 million in signing bonuses last year, they won't be going anywhere.

Brad Holt, RHP, Mets

The Mets' problems are obvious. It's probably too late for them to become buyers, and a huge problem with this season's team is the lack of upper-level minor-league talent to fill gaps on the big-league roster caused by injuries. Holt, last year's supplemental first-round pick, looks close to being ready to help a rotation that has given 27 starts to the likes of Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding. The best homegrown arm in the system has reached Double A in his first pro season and is comparable stuff-wise to Mike Pelfrey, only with a better breaking ball.

Danny Valencia, 3B, Twins

Third base has been a black hole in Minnesota since Corey Koskie's free-agent departure after the 2004 season. Joe Crede is a solid stop-gap, but Valencia should become a cheaper, similar player soon. He's a bat-first player with a knack for squaring up pitches, and his power is coming on. He's been especially hot since a promotion to Triple-A Rochester and is hitting .308/.372/.522 overall. A homegrown hot-corner answer would be very difficult for the modest-revenue Twins to give up in any deal.

Jesus Montero, C/DH, Yankees

Scouts who cover the Yankees organization are fond of saying the team overvalues its own prospects, but the scouting consensus is Montero is the real deal. He has premium raw power and pure hitting ability to go with it. If he can catch, he could have a Mike Piazza-esque career. More than likely, he's New York's future DH, and the Yankees' asking price for him is prohibitive.

Tim Beckham, SS, Rays

Beckham was No. 1 overall pick last year, and it wouldn't make much sense for the cash-strapped Rays to deal a guy just after paying him $6.15 million bonus. More likely, if Tampa were to make a move, it would build it around Triple-A shortstop Reid Brignac, a solid defender and good left-handed bat who is blocked by big league All-Star Jason Bartlett.

Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins and Jason Heyward, OF, Braves

The two best prospects in the game are truly untouchable for the right reason. They're similar to Sizemore as future franchise centerpieces.

Clay Buchholz, RHP, Red Sox

Here's an example of why teams are so reluctant to trade prospects. The Red Sox entered the year with eight starting pitchers, but injuries have eroded that depth, and Buchholz was just summoned back to Boston to replace ailing All-Star Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox (and most scouts) view him as a future front-of-the-rotation starter, even after his 2008 hiccup.

Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers

Texas is cash-strapped as well and probably can't take on salary, but it also has the deepest farm system in the game. Perez may have the highest ceiling of any Rangers pitcher as an 18-year-old Venezuelan southpaw mowing down hitters in low Class A. In one five-inning July start, Perez threw his fastball in the 90-94 mph range, struggling a bit with his command, but broke off several curveballs with excellent depth and a changeup that he throws with fabulous hand speed. He has mound presence, competitiveness, above-average stuff and a solid delivery. In other words, he's exactly the kind of player other teams ask for in trade talks.

[Rich the Giants fan]

Odd that they'd list Posey but not Bumgarner.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Odd that they'd list Posey but not Bumgarner.

That is odd.

[RubeBaker]

So SI came out with a list of untouchable players.

Knowing the accuracy SI predictions, anyone want to guess which one of these guys will be the first to be traded before the deadline?

[538280]

From a Red Sox point of view I like Buchholz but I'd trade him as part of a package to land Roy Halladay. Buchholz could very well be a great pitcher, but he's had many issues in his times in the major leagues and there are always claims he doesn't work as hard as he should. Halladay probably is the best pitcher in the game right now and given the Red Sox's money, winning, and ingratiation towards most players I would feel good about their ability to re-sign him.

[nerfan]

From a Red Sox point of view I like Buchholz but I'd trade him as part of a package to land Roy Halladay. Buchholz could very well be a great pitcher, but he's had many issues in his times in the major leagues and there are always claims he doesn't work as hard as he should. Halladay probably is the best pitcher in the game right now and given the Red Sox's money, winning, and ingratiation towards most players I would feel good about their ability to re-sign him.

Halladay is not the best in the game right now. Santana and Lincecum are both better. Hell, even Felix Hernandez is having a better season. Hard to believe he's still only 23.

[StanTheMan]

Santana may be past his prime. The total K's of his most recent starts have been

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5. 5 Losses among those 9 outings, and the first digit of his age is now a 3.

I'm hearing he's having trouble with the ring finger on his throwing hand, whic is messing with his change-up grip and effectiveness.

[STLCards2]

Santana may be past his prime. The total K's of his most recent starts have been

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

I'm hearing he's having trouble with the ring finger on his throwing hand, whic is messing with his change-up grip and effectiveness.

Before the finger owie, he was dominating. Slowing down due to an injury is not a sign of decline ("past his prime"), but sign of injury. Once he gets the finger healthy, I bet he has 2-3 more great seasons before a parade of good ones come.

[nerfan]

Before the finger owie, he was dominating. Slowing down due to an injury is not a sign of decline ("past his prime"), but sign of injury. Once he gets the finger healthy, I bet he has 2-3 more great seasons before a parade of good ones come.

I'd bet the same thing. His fastball velocity is down and he's not throwing the slider, however.

[NYMets523]

Santana may be past his prime. The total K's of his most recent starts have been

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5. 5 Losses among those 9 outings, and the first digit of his age is now a 3.

What is the K/9? That is more important.

As for the 5 losses, the Mets lineup is putrid. Unless you throw a shutout, you're not getting a win.

[Mykcal2]

What's funny about that is that in that very same magazine it reads that the only thing that has kept a Jays - Phillies trade, is that The Phillies are posturing Kyle Drabek as untouchable.

[StanTheMan]

What is the K/9? That is more important.

As for the 5 losses, the Mets lineup is putrid. Unless you throw a shutout, you're not getting a win.

Agreed about the Mets lineup right now..... but seriously my friend... if you want a K/9 of 9 (pretty good, and a number for Santana to shoot for - and often surpass) and you have K totals of

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

you need INNINGS totals in your last several starts of

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

I wonder if he lasted more than 2 or three for those five consecutive starts there....

[Bennybosox]

I can see Posey, stanton, Heyward and Buchholz as "untouchable", but the rest of the list is suspect at best. Martin Perez is a fine prospect, but I'd have to think that Texas would be more inclined to move him over the likes of Nefalti Feliz or Derrick Holland.The pitchers mentioned from the Astros organization may be the class of their farm system, but aren't among the top 75 prospects in baseball. Same with the Rockies pitchers (although Chacin is considered a potential frontline starter). Brad Holt is overrated because he's in NY and the Mets have essentially gutted their system in prior trades. Beckham is top-level prospect, but the Rays have some depth in their system and are championship contenders, so if they can make a move the increases their odds of getting back to the post season they should make it. Montero, no doubt, is the real deal, but the Yanks aren't afraid to move their young prospects, and the fact they don't see him as a full time catcher yet probably makes him a little more expendable than his numbers suggest.

Some players I'd consider untouchable outside of the one's mentioned in the SI article:
Madison Bumgarner, P, SF
Lagan Morrison, OF/1B, FL
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT
Kyle Drabek, P, PHIL
Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN
Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
Chris Tillman, P, BAL

[RubeBaker]

Agreed about the Mets lineup right now..... but seriously my friend... if you want a K/9 of 9 (pretty good, and a number for Santana to shoot for - and often surpass) and you have K totals of

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

you need INNINGS totals in your last several starts of

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

I wonder if he lasted more than 2 or three for those five consecutive starts there....

He is averaging 8.5 K/9 this season. His career average is 9.2.

His innings pitched for his last nine starts are:

7 7 7 6 7 7.1 3 7 6

No he, hasn't had double digit strikeouts, but he has still pitched pretty well. His record is 4-5 in that stretch, but that Mets offense has let him down a bit. In all 5 of those losses, his team scored 3 runs or fewer every time. Twice he lost 3-1, and once he lost 2-0 and there was the 15-0 hiccup of his but still, no run support whatsoever. In 3 of those 4 wins, the Mets scored 4 runs and 3 runs the other time.

This has been a microcosm of his season. In all 7 of Santana's losses, the Mets have scored 3 runs or fewer, and including his 1 no decision. In 7 of his 11 wins, they scored 4 or more runs. Simply put, score runs, and he wins. Plus he has come out victorious in 2 1-0 games as well. if I am Johan, I have to be wondering what I got myself into. Last year, the offense was good, the bullpen let him down. This year, the bullpen is doing much better, but his offense is terrible. He really has pitched well this year, his ERA is 2.92, his WHIP is 1.19, he probably should be on track to win 20 games, but his team keeps letting him down.

If he were an NFL running back, I would say he's in some trouble. But as major league pitcher, he's still in his prime. He probably has a few great seasons left.

Also, since when are K/9 important for a starting pitcher? I would BABIP, or a BB/K ratio is much more important. K/9 tends to be a better indicator for success for closers. Try telling guys like Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux that K/9 are (or were) important.

[NYMets523]

Agreed about the Mets lineup right now..... but seriously my friend... if you want a K/9 of 9 (pretty good, and a number for Santana to shoot for - and often surpass) and you have K totals of

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

you need INNINGS totals in your last several starts of

3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 5

I wonder if he lasted more than 2 or three for those five consecutive starts there....

A K/9 of 9 isn't "pretty good," it's very good. A pitcher doesn't need to have a 9 K/9 to be successfull. Halladay's is only 7.7 this year and Sabathia's is only 6.5. I rather wait until the end of the season before we start analyzing Santana's K numbers. He did have lousy strikeout rates the past month but he had very high strikeout rates before then.