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Thread: Best Pitchers Never To Have Won A Cy Young Award

  1. #1

    Best Pitchers Never To Have Won A Cy Young Award

    Obviously of those eligible to have won one (no, Satchel Paige and Bob Feller DO NOT COUNT as I realize they are probably the greatest of the pre 1956 hurlers to have pitched in the majors afterward, without gaining a CY Young award)

    In case you are wondering, the following are HOFers, whom fall into this category, and never won the award;

    Robin Roberts
    Juan Marichal
    Hoyt Wilhelm
    Jim Bunning
    Phil Niekro
    Don Sutton
    Nolan Ryan
    Rich Gossage

    Also in the mix should be perpetual "Why isn't he in the Hall yet" guys;

    Jim Kaat
    Bert Blyleven
    Tommy John
    Jack Morris
    Lee Smith

    I believe that's it for the guys that are still on the ballot. I'm surprised Dave Stewart didn't get enough support to belong with that list.

    Guys still active today that could deserve consideration for the title;

    Trevor Hoffman
    Mariano Rivera

    Okay, Rivera is going into the Hall, but I'd argue about Hoffman's status as a future no doubt HOFer.

    Other than those two, no one active who has never won a Cy strikes me as being involved in "should he go into the Hall" debates. Either they are too long in the tooth (Moyer), haven't done enough in their careers (Oswalt), or just had one or two years of "best pitcher in the game" discussions about them (Hudson, Mulder, Pettitte, etc).

    All things considered, my top three is Marichal, Rivera and Gossage.

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    Don't forget about Mussina, K. Brown, and Schilling.
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  4. #4
    1. Mariano Rivera
    2. Nolan Ryan
    3. Hoyt Wilhelm
    4. Phil Niekro
    5. Robin Roberts
    6. Curt Schilling
    7. Mike Mussina
    8. Bert Blyleven
    9. Trevor Hoffman
    10. Juan Marichal
    11. Don Sutton
    12. Goose Gossage
    13. Jim Bunning
    14. Lee Smith
    15. Billy Wagner
    16. John Franco
    17. Kevin Brown
    18. Bob Lemon
    19. Billy Pierce
    20. Dan Quisenberry
    21. Tom Henke
    22. Tommy John
    23. Tom Gordon
    24. John Wetteland
    25. Kent Tekulve
    26. Lindy McDaniel
    27. Jeff Reardon
    28. Joe Nathan
    29. Jack Morris
    30. Luis Tiant
    31. Doug Jones
    32. Ellis Kinder
    33. Roberto Hernandez
    34. Rick Aguilera
    35. Stu Miller
    36. Jim Kaat
    37. Tug McGraw
    38. Robb Nen
    39. Randy Myers
    40. Dave Righetti

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    I'd insert Jerry Koosman into that list, between Marichal and Sutton. He certainly deserved to win the Cy Young award in 1976 instead of Randy Jones.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgarza View Post
    9. Trevor Hoffman
    10. Juan Marichal

    14. Lee Smith
    15. Billy Wagner
    16. John Franco
    17. Kevin Brown

    21. Tom Henke
    22. Tommy John
    23. Tom Gordon
    24. John Wetteland
    25. Kent Tekulve
    26. Lindy McDaniel
    27. Jeff Reardon
    28. Joe Nathan
    30. Luis Tiant

    31. Doug Jones
    32. Ellis Kinder
    33. Roberto Hernandez
    34. Rick Aguilera
    35. Stu Miller
    36. Jim Kaat
    Love those relievers, don't ya.
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    Mariano rivera

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveJRogers View Post
    Where is that list from? How is Niekro better than Marichal? Really?
    Not at there very best, but Niekro did throw to almost 9,000 more batters (we'll call that 1 Sandy Koufax career total), without a massive drop in ERA+ (123 to 115). Niekro also had terrible defenses behind him, which is dragging down his ERA+ about 3 points.

    Marichal was definitely better in his prime and I would definitely rather have him in any one big game I wanted to win, but there is no doubt that Niekro has a big career value advantage. Depends on what floats your boat.

    Marichal WAR - 63
    Niekro WAR - 94
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    Quote Originally Posted by STLCards2 View Post
    Not at there very best, but Niekro did throw to almost 9,000 more batters (we'll call that 1 Sandy Koufax career total), without a massive drop in ERA+ (123 to 115).
    Career value does halp Niekro a lot.

    Also, Marichal threw roughly 3500 IPs. If we take Neikro's career up to 3500-something innings, I believe their ERA+ are nearly identical.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dgarza View Post
    Career value does halp Niekro a lot.

    Also, Marichal threw roughly 3500 IPs. If we take Neikro's career up to 3500-something innings, I believe their ERA+ are nearly identical.
    Well, if we assume a normal ERA+ deterioration for Marichal, he would be at about a 108 ERA+ at 5,500 IP (I estimate around a 7-8 point ERA+ drop for every 1,000 IP after 3,000).

    Of course the projected and the assumed don't always happen in reality.

    I used BF instead of IP since it is more accurate - 1 IP in 1910 is not the same a 1 IP in 2000. BF vs. BF is closer. I guess PT would be the closest of all.
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    Since this is not so much a career stat as a question of peak performance(s), I'd say that, although they don't necessarily belong at the top of the list... both Dave Stieb and Steve Rogers should be included in the discussion.
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  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Eastvanmungo View Post
    Since this is not so much a career stat as a question of peak performance(s), I'd say that, although they don't necessarily belong at the top of the list... both Dave Stieb and Steve Rogers should be included in the discussion.
    If we are looking at peak, Kevin Brown is the only pitcher with a "qualifing" seasonal ERA+ over 200 to have not won a CY.

    Kevin Brown - 1996 - ERA+ 216
    Wilbur Wood - 1971 - ERA+ 188
    Luis Tiant - 1968 - ERA+ 186
    John Tudor - 1985 - ERA+ 184
    Joe Horlen - 1964 - ERA+ 183
    Jason Schmidt - 2003 - ERA+ 179
    Kevin Appier - 1993 - ERA+ 179
    Mark Prior - 2002 - ERA+ 178
    Andy Pettitte - 2005 - ERA+ 177
    Derek Lowe - 2002 - ERA+ 177

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by STLCards2 View Post
    Love those relievers, don't ya.
    That really shows how so many of the top starting pitchers of the Cy Young era have won the award.

    I'd take Marichal overall. Who beat out Brown for the CYA in 1996? Even before I knew much about advanced metrics, he was clearly my choice that year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveJRogers View Post
    Obviously of those eligible to have won one (no, Satchel Paige and Bob Feller DO NOT COUNT as I realize they are probably the greatest of the pre 1956 hurlers to have pitched in the majors afterward, without gaining a CY Young award)

    In case you are wondering, the following are HOFers, whom fall into this category, and never won the award;

    Robin Roberts
    Roberts probably shouldn't count as well, since he was basically a pre-56 pitcher. He'd have likely won a couple of Cy Youngs if the award had existed during the early part of the 50's.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cold Nose View Post
    Who beat out Brown for the CYA in 1996? Even before I knew much about advanced metrics, he was clearly my choice that year.
    John Smoltz.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eastvanmungo View Post
    Since this is not so much a career stat as a question of peak performance(s), I'd say that, although they don't necessarily belong at the top of the list... both Dave Stieb and Steve Rogers should be included in the discussion.
    I think Rogers would be my #1 choice over Cartlon in 1982. Stieb probably deserved 2-3 there in the mid 80's.
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    Let's not cry too hard for poor Kevin Brown. Baseball already gave away too much hardware to juicers in the '90's as it stands now.
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    Marichal and Mussina are the best pitchers never to have won a Cy Young.

    Marichal and Kaat both would have won a Cy Young Award had each league had an award from the beginning. Kaat would have probably won the AL Cy Young Award in 1966, and Marichal would have won the NL award in 1964, in all likelihood.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Los Bravos View Post
    Let's not cry too hard for poor Kevin Brown. Baseball already gave away too much hardware to juicers in the '90's as it stands now.
    Oh, so you have evidence that shows he was using that year?

    May we see it, please?

    Brown was clearly the better pitcher that year, and Smoltz got it because he won 24 games and led the league in that category as well as K's. There was a 67 point differential in ERA+. Brown was clearly the best pitcher in the National League, before there were any rumors about him being linked to steroids.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Los Bravos View Post
    Let's not cry too hard for poor Kevin Brown. Baseball already gave away too much hardware to juicers in the '90's as it stands now.
    All credible evidence available suggests that Brown used from 2001-2005. Since most of those years were short, injury-prone, or poor anyway, it looks like the steroids only had minimal impact at most to Brown's overall numbers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricAnno View Post
    Oh, so you have evidence that shows he was using that year?

    May we see it, please?

    Brown was clearly the better pitcher that year, and Smoltz got it because he won 24 games and led the league in that category as well as K's. There was a 67 point differential in ERA+. Brown was clearly the best pitcher in the National League, before there were any rumors about him being linked to steroids.
    I just took a look back and yeah the ERAs were 2.94 to 1.89 in Brown's favor with W-L 24-8 vs. 17-11 in Smoltz' favor. However Smoltz led the league in IP @ 253.2 v. 233 and K 276 w/ Brown @ 159. Brown gave up 8 HR which is the only single digit total above 121 IP while Smoltz gave up 19 HR. Brown had 33 BB v. 55 for Smoltz but Brown had 16 HBP v. 2 for Smoltz.
    To me Smoltz may have had better peripherals K, BB/HBP, HR than Brown. It hinges on which is more valuable those 117 more Ks in 20 IP or Brown's 11 less HR (and 8 fewer BB/HBP).

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    I really don't care if there is a connection with that year and Brown's PED use. That's irrelevant to me and I wasn't implying anything other than the fairly well established fact that he was a user. Some around here consider that a minor matter. I don't.

    Also, as a general rule, if you're arguing against a decision that was already arrived at, "clearly" isn't really the best possible term to employ twice. If it were that clear, there wouldn't be a controversy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    To me Smoltz may have had better peripherals K, BB/HBP, HR than Brown. It hinges on which is more valuable those 117 more Ks in 20 IP or Brown's 11 less HR (and 8 fewer BB/HBP).
    I bolded a key point there: context. John's numbers were achieved while leading the best team in the NL. Brown's Marlins finished in 3rd in that division at 80-82. Like it or not, seasons like Brown's are usually viewed as empty stats exercises by most writers, at least when compared to a comparable season from another pitcher which is coupled with a signifigant team accomplishment.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Los Bravos View Post
    I bolded a key point there: context. John's numbers were achieved while leading the best team in the NL. Brown's Marlins finished in 3rd in that division at 80-82. Like it or not, seasons like Brown's are usually viewed as empty stats exercises by most writers, at least when compared to a comparable season from another pitcher which is coupled with a signifigant team accomplishment.
    Exactly. Brown wouldn't have been a bad choice, but I thought Smoltz should have won then and I still think that was the best choice of two deserving candidates. It's not the "Best ERA+ Award".

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