The Mets Minor League/Player Development Thread

[Blue387]

The St. Lucie Mets are 34-10 for the season.

[Blue387]

Zack Wheeler has been excellent in AA Binghamton.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp...vkey=news_milb
http://www.courant.com/sports/baseba...0,804637.story

[Blue387]

The Mets draft Gavin Cecchini in the first round.

[Ralf]

Hate this pick. I really wanted to Lucas Giolito.

[theAmazingMet]

The Mets draft Gavin Cecchini in the first round.

I like this pick. He has the largest upside of any SS in the draft.

[Ralf]

I like this pick. He has the largest upside of any SS in the draft.

The upside just isn't there for a #12 pick imo. I think it has more to do with sign-ability because they have 3 picks in the top 70 and there is a quasi cap on draft spending this year.

[Ralf]

Kevin Plawecki, C

Projects to be a back-up. Very little upside. Meh. I'm not understanding the strategy here.

[Blue387]

RHP Brandon Welch drafted by the Mets in the fifth round.

[Blue387]

The St. Lucie Mets are 48-15 with a 16.5 game lead in their division.

[Mongoose]

The Mets failed to sign their 2nd Round pick:

The Mets Miss Out on Signing Second Round Pick Teddy Stankiewicz

By Toby Hyde on 14. Jul, 2012

The Mets did not come to an agreement with second round pick Teddy Stankiewicz, a RHP from Ft. Worth Christian HS in Texas. Stankiewicz, who was committed to Arkansas, will instead go to school at Seminole (OK) JC, presumably with the intention to re-enter the 2013 draft.

According to Baseball America, Stankiewicz was the second-highest pick who did not sign and one of eight picks in the first 10 round who did not come to terms. The highest profile player who did not sign was Stanford RHP Mark Appel, the eighth overall pick in the draft, who reportedly turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates, the maximum the team could offer without losing a pick in 2013 to go back to the Farm.

Also, per Baseball America, the Mets, offer to Stankiewicz, ”never came within 10 percent of his $680,400 pick value.”

This is … odd. The Mets had the money to offer Stankiewicz his full pool value and in fact could have offered him up to $185,600 over his slot value without incurring even financial penalties. Here’s the math: the Mets’ total draft allocation was $7,151,400. Without Stankiewicz, the team had committed $6,285,400 against the cap. Remember, all picks in the top 10 rounds carry allocations. Every dollar spent on a pick in the first 10 rounds counts against the draft cap, and every dollar above $100,000 for a player outside the top 10 rounds also counts against the cap. Again, Stankiewicz’s slot value was $680,400. The Mets were $185,600 under slot on the rest of their picks (if the bonuses report at Baseball America are correct). They could have offered him up to $866,00. And yet, if Baseball America’s reporting is correct, and the Mets did not get within 10% of his value, their max offer was $612,360, or 90% of his $680,400.

So the Mets let a decent prospect go for $68,040? Really? That’s roughly 2% of the $3.5 million the team is paying Jon Rauch and his 0.2 fWAR for his work during the 2012 baseball season

Was Stankiewicz worth it? Lets check his baseball America scouting report: where he was described as “ polished high school pitcher who fits in the third to fifth round on talent, but he may not be signable away from an Arkansas commitment outside of the top two. He flashes two above-average pitches that should improve as he fills out his projectable 6-foot-4, 190-pound frame. His fastball usually sits at 88-92 mph, topping out anywhere from 89-94 on a given day. His slider is very good at times and mediocre at others. He also uses a curveball as a show pitch and has the makings of a changeup.”

Lets be clear: he “FLASHES” two plus pitches, his fastball and slider, but does not have them consistently.

There’s something weird going on here. Plenty of players moved up draft boards in the days leading up to the June draft based on their willingness to sign, but by the end of the process in July, Stankewicz and the Mets had different opinions on his value. Did his asking price change post-draft, or did the Mets mis-read his demands? For example, did he indicate in June that he would be willing to sign for say, $550,000 and then began asking for more as it became clear that the Mets had more money available? Or did the Mets change their own internal valuation of his abilities?

Even so, why were the Mets willing to go to 90% of slot when they had more than 100% of slot available? Were they trying to make an example of him? That does not make sense. Is their valuation on high school arms that precise to the level of under $70,000? That’s a tough sell.

I am surprised that Stankiewicz did not sign. At this point, I have more questions than answers.

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/t...y-stankiewicz/


Truth is all their high picks looked like "signability" selections. All were a reach for how high they were picked. Info from Baseball America suggests they signed under slot. Stankiewicz wanted slot money. The Mets refused.

I see no strategy here other than the Wilpons wanting to pocket what really is nickel and dime money by MLB standards. It's disheartening, but not really surprising. Cheap drafts have been a constant for years, regardless of GM.

[Mongoose]

I hear he might to be brought up to fill the void in the rotation this week.

I saw him pitch a great game in 2009 for the Cyclones. I sat in the seats scouts would ordinarily sit in and got a good look at him. I remember an adequate fastball, decent secondary stuff, but great command. He looked like a Big Leaguer the way he was mixing pitches and locations. He hung maybe two curves the whole game, but nobody hit them. He was dominant.

Later that year I saw a Mets game in which Ollie pitched and noted McHugh's superior command and velocity (low 90s I'd say). He was unheralded but I remembered his name because I hoped he might be one of the few to make it from low A to the majors. Looks like he will. From what I saw, he could have gotten Major League hitters out even then. He might surprise some people. I wish him well.

[Blue387]

What do you know about Chris Ray and Trevor Bell? Both of whom were both released by the A's and Angels today.

[CokeMachineGlow]

What do you know about Chris Ray and Trevor Bell? Both of whom were both released by the A's and Angels today.

Why is this in the Mets minor league development thread?

[MattD1972]

B-Mets swept a doubleheader from Portland (Red Sox) at home, 2-1, 3-1, Francisco relieved in G1 and worked around a leadoff double for the save. Dustin Martin had the GW hits in both games, including a 3-run HR in the 6th inning of G2.

[Mongoose]

I hear he might to be brought up to fill the void in the rotation this week.

I saw him pitch a great game in 2009 for the Cyclones. I sat in the seats scouts would ordinarily sit in and got a good look at him. I remember an adequate fastball, decent secondary stuff, but great command. He looked like a Big Leaguer the way he was mixing pitches and locations. He hung maybe two curves the whole game, but nobody hit them. He was dominant.

Later that year I saw a Mets game in which Ollie pitched and noted McHugh's superior command and velocity (low 90s I'd say). He was unheralded but I remembered his name because I hoped he might be one of the few to make it from low A to the majors. Looks like he will. From what I saw, he could have gotten Major League hitters out even then. He might surprise some people. I wish him well.

As I said here, McHugh has been on my radar for three years now. I'm a bit surprised by the lack of attention he's gotten. I think he'll be a decent big league pitcher. I wish I could have been at today's game. Even then he was unheralded but his command was Major League and he had a good grasp of how to work the strike zone. From what I saw, and reports of continuing progress, he's probably about as good as this year's improved Dillon Gee - in other words at least a credible middle of the rotation big league starter. Today's game did nothing to change my opinion.

[Blue387]

Baseball Prospectus New York Mets Top 10 Prospects
December 18, 2012

1. RHP Zack Wheeler
2. C Travis d'Arnaud
3. RHP Noah Syndergaard
4. RHP Michael Fulmer
5. 3B/1B Wilmer Flores
6. SS Gavin Cecchini
7. ​RHP Domingo Tapia
8. RHP Jeurys Familia
9. OF Brandon Nimmo
10. RHP Rafael Montero

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19198

[milladrive]

Baseball Prospectus New York Mets Top 10 Prospects
December 18, 2012

1. RHP Zack Wheeler
2. C Travis d'Arnaud
3. RHP Noah Syndergaard
4. RHP Michael Fulmer
5. 3B/1B Wilmer Flores
6. SS Gavin Cecchini
7. ​RHP Domingo Tapia
8. RHP Jeurys Familia
9. OF Brandon Nimmo
10. RHP Rafael Montero

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19198

Wow. If you ask me, that's a relatively weak top ten.

[Blue387]

Wow. If you ask me, that's a relatively weak top ten.

2012 is better than 2010:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10048

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Fernando Martinez, CF
3. Wilmer Flores, SS
4. Ike Davis, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jon Niese, LHP
6. Brad Holt, RHP
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
8. Josh Thole, C
9. Kyle Allen, RHP
10. Ruben Tejada, SS
11. Reese Havens, SS

[Strawman]

2012 is better than 2010:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=10048

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Fernando Martinez, CF
3. Wilmer Flores, SS
4. Ike Davis, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jon Niese, LHP
6. Brad Holt, RHP
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
8. Josh Thole, C
9. Kyle Allen, RHP
10. Ruben Tejada, SS
11. Reese Havens, SS

Only with the benefit of hindsight. Our current top 10 is not exactly laden with sure things and 2010 at least had Ike.

[milladrive]

Only with the benefit of hindsight. Our current top 10 is not exactly laden with sure things and 2010 at least had Ike.

And Tejada. And Niese. And the yet-to-mature Nieuwenhuis (who I do think has the defensive tools and should be further trained properly on offense).

So, if 2012 is better than the list from 2010, I'm not sure what that says. If three and a half of the players on the current list live up to their names, I'll consider it a positive.

As well, I'd kinda like to see Flores in a deal for either an outfielder or a reliever.

[Mongoose]

Here's something from an article in Baseball America before the Dickey trade:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...3/2614461.html

A lack of blue-chip position prospects clouds New York's future lineup possibilities, however. Its best upper-level hitter is infielder Wilmer Flores, but he may not have enough power or defensive chops to profile as a long-term starter at any position.

Mets domestic farm clubs finished with a cumulative winning record for the third straight season, with the pitching staffs at high Class A St. Lucie, low Class A Savannah and short-season Brooklyn serving as particular highlights. All three units led their leagues in ERA, WHIP and K-BB ratio while featuring the bulk of the system's most promising arms, including Luis Mateo, Rafael Montero and Michael Fulmer.

Though the Mets sought to cut costs by going without an entry in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2012, they'll reverse course in 2013 and continue to invest in player development. For the second straight year, New York set a new franchise record for draft bonuses, upping the mark to $7 million. It also signed Dominican shortstop Amed Rosario for $1.75 million, the highest bonus it ever has paid for an international amateur.

Here is John Sickels' top 20 after the trade:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...pects-for-2013

1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Should be acquired from Jays in the R.A. Dickey trade. He's not perfect, but D'Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline and immediate stardom is unlikely, but overall he's the complete package. Don't expect him to be Mike Piazza, but he should be a long-term solution.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Aside from some control wobbles in Triple-A, he had a terrific year. Projects as a number two starter. Can he duplicate what Matt Harvey did? It's possible.

3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Acquired in Dickey trade. He's ahead of where Wheeler was at age 20. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. I like him more than many people do, but I really like him.

4) Wilmer Flores, 3B-2B, Grade B+: Borderline B. I am impressed with the progress he made last year developing his power, and he's still just 21. There are still significant questions about his defense and how his bat will fit into a lineup, but progress is progress.

5) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B-: Strong performance in Low-A, impressive fastball/slider combination. Development of changeup, command, and durability concerns over cross-body mechanics lead to some questions about future role, but he could be a mid-rotation guy eventually. Another guy I'm laying a bet on. Maybe a bad idea when it comes to pitchers, but I'm operating on very little sleep tonight.

6) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Another hard-thrower with command issues and question about his role. I've been in the starter camp but am now leaning towards the bullpen. Even slight command improvement could make him significant contributor in 2013.

7) Luis Mateo, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Love the arm and he blew away the NY-P, however, he is in the age cohort of a college senior at age 22 so take the raw stats (2.45 ERA, 85/9 K/BB in 73 innings) with a grain of salt. That said, he throws quite hard and if his changeup comes around he is another mid-rotation arm for the future. If he repeats this at higher levels, he'll zoom up the lists quickly in '13 and this grade could look too low.

8) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B-: Very patient, showed some pop in the New York-Penn League, but his athleticism and speed weren't as good as advertised. Will need more power if he has to move to an outfield corner.

9) Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B-: Baseball rat type, 2012 first rounder, good polish on defense, but hitting in rookie ball wasn't as good as I was led to expect when he was in high school. Young enough to get a lot better, of course.

10) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B-: Another product of the Mets pitching pipeline in Latin America, thrived in Low-A and High-A. Good command of low-90s fastball, and has a solid slider and improving changeup, throws strikes. Another potential mid-rotation starter.

11) Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade B-: Here's another one, gets up to 98 MPH, erratic but promising in Low-A, needs a better breaking ball to remain a starter, but another high-ceiling guy.

12) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Inconsistent after promotion to Double-A and long-term role is uncertain, but could be another mid/back-rotation or bullpen candidate within the next two years. Low-to-mid-90s, good slider, but splitter wasn't completely effective.

13) Jake DeGrom, RHP, Grade C+: Older prospect at age 24 due to lost Tommy John season, but has a nasty sinker, an athletic body, throws strikes, and was sharp statistically with a 2.43 ERA and 96/20 K/BB in 111 innings in A-ball. Significant sleeper prospect.

14) Kevin Plawecki, C, Grade C+: Purdue catcher is a skilled contact hitter with a very solid glove. Didn't post eye-popping numbers in the NY-P, but I think he has growth potential. Presence of D'Arnaud means Plawecki won't have to be rushed.

15) Matt Den Dekker, OF, Grade C+: Offers left-handed power, can steal a base, and a fine glove in the outfield, but excessive strikeout inclination will likely preclude a good batting average and OBP. Should make a solid fourth outfielder.

16) Cory Vaughn, OF, Grade C+: Very productive in Florida State League (23 homers, 21 steals, 65 walks) but has a strikeout habit (114) and hit just .243. Turns 24 in May so he can't afford a slow start in Double-A.

17) Logan Verrett, RHP, Grade C+: Another college-trained strike-thrower (the Mets have several) who could be a surprise in 2013 if he adds another half-tick to his fastball or adds something to his changeup. Thrived in A-ball (2.70 ERA, 93/13 K/BB in 103 innings). Sleeper who would get more play in an organization with less pitching.

18) Jack Leathersich, LHP, Grade C+: Strikeout relief king, fanned 113 in 72 innings (read that again) in A-ball, with 3.00 ERA and gave up just 51 hits. He also walked 32 guys, so he's got work to do, but fastball/curve combination would take him a long way with even slight improvement in his command.

19) Danny Muno, INF, Grade C+: Not toolsy, but just knows how to play. Hit .280/.387/.412 in High-A, with 19 steals, 50 walks in 352 PA. Steady defense. Would make a fine utility guy. He did serve a 50-game PED suspension but I think his skills are real.

20) Phillip Evans, SS, Grade C+: Higher ceiling than Muno but further away. His bat wasn't quite as good as advertised, but his glove was better than expected, and he has as chance to stick at shortstop. Will move to Low-A at age 20 in 2013.

Looks like there are lots of pitchers with upside, but looks like few impact position players will be ready anytime soon. Sickels seems down on most of Alderson's early draft picks. I wonder if there's enough to fill the holes through trades alone?

[Cowtipper]

They named Randy St. Claire their Triple-A pitching coach.

[Blue387]

Can Wilmer Flores stick at second base?

[Mongoose]

Can Wilmer Flores stick at second base?

I guess we'll find out this year. It would be ideal if he could play right field. He's supposed to have a really good arm. Reports are his bat could play there. Range is supposedly a problem at all positions for him.

Murphy was fielding 2nd well by the end of the season. Murph's bat plays well there. I guess first we have to see if Flores can field 2nd base.

It's funny but we've been hearing about Flores for what seems like forever, but he's still only 20 or 21.

[Strawman]

It's taken as an article of faith by those who believe in this current management team that the Mets farm system - always challenged, rarely highly rated by those who keep the lists - is being systematically rebuilt by Sandy Alderson and his team.

Whether or not they agree on the team's major league moves, most of those still in this front office's camp speak as one with the mantra that the minor league system is undergoing a radical overhaul and that the Mets are now - finally! - being run "the right way" under the new regime.

People, I have some research for you from the great people at Metstoday.com - but first, I have to ask. Did you really think the Wilpons would be doing something "the right way?" That they'd open up the purse strings and build a deep farm system? That they now prize young talent? Ye fools!

Now, here's the story I speak of - meticulously researched by Joe Janish. It destroys the myth of the new, renovated, "right way" Mets draft and development system.

Mets Draft and Development Debunked
http://www.metstoday.com/8346/12-13-...ment-debunked/

One key passage:

For the past two years, the Atlanta Braves signed 72% of their draft picks. Nationals — 62%, Phillies – 58%, Marlins – 66%, and the Mets – 48%. It gets worse when you realize most teams don’t sign many of players from the last 25 rounds. If you look at just the first 25 rounds, where you are more likely to find your true prospects (and spend the most money), the Braves sign 96% of their draft picks, Nationals – 82%, Phillies – 85%, Marlins – 84% and the rebuilding New York Mets signed 74% of the players they picked in the first 25 rounds. To put it another way, the Braves signed eleven more draft picks and nine more top draft picks in the past two years then the Mets. You wonder why they always seem to have rookie of the year candidates and the Mets have Mike Baxter starting in the outfield?

Yeah, let us hear no more of the Mets and this front office - same as the old front office - doing it "the right way." It's a myth.