Nomar versus Joe Gordon

[brett]

I didn't see too much outrage at Joe Gordon's induction. Who has a better HOF case, Nomar or Joe?

I realize people will need to consider lost wartime production.

[mwiggins]

Gordon. And it's not really that close.

[Domenic]

Even without war credit, it appears to be Gordon by a fair margin.

By OPS+
Gordon - 120
Garciaparra - 124

By EQA
Gordon - .287
Garciaparra - .291

By FRAA
Gordon - 103
Garciaparra - 18

By WAR
Gordon - 54.9
Garciaparra - 42.6

By WARP3
Gordon - 71.1
Garciaparra - 51.6

By Win Shares
Gordon - 242
Garciaparra - ~215

I would argue that Garciaparra's offensive advantage is fairly minor, and that Gordon's excellent defense at second base should exceed Garciaparra's average defense at short - particularly so, as Gordon played roughly 450 more games at second than did Garciaparra at shortstop.

[mwiggins]

Why Gordon vs. Nomar? Seems like an odd matchup.

If you want guys with similar OPS+ and lifetime PA's, Eric Davis might be a good match for Nomar. Two guys with no-question HoF talent, tremendous beginnings to their career, and careers that were derailed by an inability to stay healthy.

[Domenic]

The match-up makes some sense - both are powerful middle-infielders and both had their careers shortened substantially (albeit for fairly distinct reasons). I just feel like Gordon was clearly superior, without even considering his time spent abroad during World War II.

[mwiggins]

The match-up makes some sense - both are powerful middle-infielders and both had their careers shortened substantially (albeit for fairly distinct reasons). I just feel like Gordon was clearly superior, without even considering his time spent abroad during World War II.

Agree completely. I'm sure the perception is that Nomar had the better peak, but I'd take Gordon's best years over Nomar's. Though their peaks were very close in quality, so you could easily make a good case for either one.

But the fact that Gordon played 1500 games as a middle infielder, while Nomar played only 1055 at SS, makes it an unfair comparrison for Nomar.

[brett]

When Gordon was elected I thought it was a poor choice. It wasn't that I don't believe in giving war credit, but that the war credit would account for about 25% of his career value (given it was in "prime" years) so I didn't feel good about giving him the full amount.

I don't think Nomar played enough, but I am suprised that no one is talking about league quality, integration or the added value of the shortstop position.

[stevebogus]

If you want guys with similar OPS+ and lifetime PA's, Eric Davis might be a good match for Nomar. Two guys with no-question HoF talent, tremendous beginnings to their career, and careers that were derailed by an inability to stay healthy.

Huh? Joe Gordon was an iron man compared to Eric Davis. He missed a few seasons due to a World War and was forced out of the majors a little early after substandard (for him) seasons at age 34-35. That used to be considered old for a ballplayer, but Gordon was still an above average player. The Indians had a replacement waiting in the wings (Bobby Avila), who was a fine player, so they released Gordon. In 1951 he played for Sacramento of the PCL and hit 43 HRs with a .299 batting average. Why no major league team signed him is a mystery, but it is possible he got a better offer from the PCL.

[Domenic]

I don't think Nomar played enough, but I am suprised that no one is talking about league quality, integration or the added value of the shortstop position.

I addressed this, and mwiggins affirmed my notion.

Essentially, Gordon was a plus-plus defender at 2B for 1500-plus games. Garciaparra was an average defender at SS for 1000-plus games. I see that as advantageous to Gordon. . .

On the whole, I believe that the adjustments made by Baseball Prospectus and Bill James are fairly accurate, and Gordon has fairly substantial advantages in WARP3 and Win Shares.

[mwiggins]

When Gordon was elected I thought it was a poor choice. It wasn't that I don't believe in giving war credit, but that the war credit would account for about 25% of his career value (given it was in "prime" years) so I didn't feel good about giving him the full amount.

I don't think Nomar played enough, but I am suprised that no one is talking about league quality, integration or the added value of the shortstop position.

Those would come up if it was close, but it's not.

And being a shortstop is nice, but Gordon still played a prime defensive position. And he played it much better than Nomar played SS. And Gordon did not have his prime in a league that had just gone through 2 rounds of expansion.

Besides, even with a generous amount of war credit for Gordon, you're not looking at 25% of his total career value. Measuring it in Win Shares, the war credit I give him is about 19% of his total value.

[mwiggins]

Huh? Joe Gordon was an iron man compared to Eric Davis. He missed a few seasons due to a World War and was forced out of the majors a little early after substandard (for him) seasons at age 34-35. That used to be considered old for a ballplayer, but Gordon was still an above average player. The Indians had a replacement waiting in the wings (Bobby Avila), who was a fine player, so they released Gordon. In 1951 he played for Sacramento of the PCL and hit 43 HRs with a .299 batting average. Why no major league team signed him is a mystery, but it is possible he got a better offer from the PCL.

I was saying Nomar and Eric Davis would be a good comparision, since they both had a similar career arc due to injuries. I wasn't trying to say Gordon was anything like Davis, other than that they both had a similar amount of career PA's and OPS+.

[Fielding Marshall]

Best 7, WARP3:

Gordon: 9.3, 8.7, 8.4, 8.1, 7.4, 7.3, 7.2
Garciaparra: 9.0, 8.6, 7.4, 7.3, 6.0, 5.5, 3.3

I think it's safe to give the edge to Gordon...

[Domenic]

When Gordon was elected I thought it was a poor choice. It wasn't that I don't believe in giving war credit, but that the war credit would account for about 25% of his career value (given it was in "prime" years) so I didn't feel good about giving him the full amount.

Even without war credit, Gordon does fit into the Hall of Fame range for second basemen:

By WARP3
Carew - 83.6
McPhee - 82.9
Herman - 82.5
Doerr - 77.4
Sandberg - 76.2
Gordon - 71.1
Schoendienst - 62.4
Lazzeri - 61.2
Fox - 60.1
Mazeroski - 59.3
Evers - 49.1

Ignoring war credit (and possibly PCL credit), Gordon fits comfortably within the mid-range of Hall of Fame second basemen. While that may not scream "Hall of Famer," I don't see him as falling by the wayside as a mistake, either.

A ten-percent adjustment to his WARP3, which should be reasonable for war credit (if not understating that factor a bit) puts him ahead of Doerr and Sandberg.

While WARP3 isn't necessarily the best statistic to hang my hat on, I do think that Gordon fits comfortably into the Hall of Fame.

[EdTarbusz]

In 1951 he played for Sacramento of the PCL and hit 43 HRs with a .299 batting average. Why no major league team signed him is a mystery, but it is possible he got a better offer from the PCL.

Joe Gordon was a California native. He may have wanted to play closer to home.

[brett]

OK what about Vern Stephens and Nomar?

[brett]

Even without war credit, Gordon does fit into the Hall of Fame range for second basemen:

By WARP3
Carew - 83.6
McPhee - 82.9
Herman - 82.5
Doerr - 77.4
Sandberg - 76.2
Gordon - 71.1
Schoendienst - 62.4
Lazzeri - 61.2
Fox - 60.1
Mazeroski - 59.3
Evers - 49.1

I know you were showing Hofers but by the way:

Bobby Grich - 86.1
Lou Whitaker - 85.4

[Domenic]

I know you were showing Hofers but by the way:

Bobby Grich - 86.1
Lou Whitaker - 85.4

I believe that Grich and Whitaker should be in the Hall of Fame, and I don't think that a better player remaining on the waiting list should preclude a deserving player from induction.

[KCGHOST]

Nomar has had a nice career, but I would say Gordon.

[dl4060]

I would take Nomar at his best, but Gordon was healthy. I support Gordon for the HOF. I would love to support Nomar, but he needed 1-2 more seasons like 2002-2003. Another season or two like 99-00 would have cemented it easily.

For me, Gordon gets there, and Nomar just misses. His body gave out on him.

Despite missing war time, Gordon had 8 seasons where he played more than 143 games. Nomar had 4.

[Tiboreau]

Joe Gordon was a California native. He may have wanted to play closer to home.

Well, it did give Gordon the opportunity to manage as a player-manager in '51 & '52, but I don't know if that was a deciding factor. Bio Project, Wikipedia or the BP Bullpen all omit mention of possible motivating factors behind the decision, but it could very well be that the opportunity to manage in his home state played a part, as well as his .236 average by a 35 year-old 2B in the eyes of MLB teams.

BTW, here's his complete batting line from 1951:

team   g  pa  ab   h 2b 3b hr  tb  r rbi bb  k sb  avg. obp. slg. ops+ hp tob
SAC  148 566 485 145 24  3 43 304 97 136 78 39  2 .299 .399 .627  169   3 226

The OPS+ is my estimate based on his performance in the PCL according to the 1952 Sporting News Baseball Guide, and doesn't include park factors (AKA *OPS+). Joe Gordon led the PCL in HR, RBI & OPS+, finished 2nd in SLG. (by 2 points to George Schmees, who played in the LA's Wrigley Field bandbox of "Home Run Derby" fame), 4th in TB, 5 in OBP., 8th in R, & 9 in BB.