Bunting foul w/2 strikes--Jeter

[skipper5]

Unlike the pundits, I think Derek Jeter was tactically correct when he attempted to sac bunt on an 0-2 count, and bunted foul.

7th inning, Yanks ahead by 2, runners at first and second, and a slew of good hitters behind him.

--Against play-off pitching, Jeter's odds of getting a clean hit or BB during an AB where he gets into an 0-2 hole are probably around 20-25%.

--Down 0-2 and forced to hit "pitchers' pitches", the odds of his hitting into a DP increase greatly

--Whereas, my guess is that a good bunter like Jeter is able to get a sac bunt down on at least 30% of the pitches that he offers at.

NY Times:

"Jeter he was asked if he thought the idea of the bunt, its execution or both were faulty.

'Afterwards, the idea was stupid and the execution was stupid so they go hand in hand,' Jeter said.

But if Jeter had bunted the ball fairly, he would not have placed a dunce helmet on his head.

'Then, yeah, it would’ve been good because the whole idea is to move the runners,' said Jeter, clinging to his belief that a successful two-strike bunt would have been the best play in that spot.

'Man, I won’t do it again,' he said. 'I won’t do it again with two strikes in my career.' "

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/sp...r=1&ref=sports

That's unfortunate. It was the correct percentage play to make.

[Jake Patterson]

Didn't make much sense to me....

[skipper5]

Unlike the pundits, I think Derek Jeter was tactically correct when he attempted to sac bunt on an 0-2 count, and bunted foul.

7th inning, Yanks ahead by 2, runners at first and second, and a slew of good hitters behind him.

--Against play-off pitching, Jeter's odds of getting a clean hit or BB during an AB where he gets into an 0-2 hole are probably around 20-25%.

--Down 0-2 and forced to hit "pitchers' pitches", the odds of his hitting into a DP increase greatly

--Whereas, my guess is that a good bunter like Jeter is able to get a sac bunt down on at least 30% of the pitches that he offers at.

NY Times:

"Jeter he was asked if he thought the idea of the bunt, its execution or both were faulty.

'Afterwards, the idea was stupid and the execution was stupid so they go hand in hand,”'Jeter said.

But if Jeter had bunted the ball fairly, he would not have placed a dunce helmet on his head.

'Then, yeah, it would’ve been good because the whole idea is to move the runners,' said Jeter, clinging to his belief that a successful two-strike bunt would have been the best play in that spot. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/sp...r=1&ref=sports

[ipitch]

--Against play-off pitching, Jeter's odds of getting a clean hit or BB during an AB where he gets into an 0-2 hole are probably around 20-25%.

After an 0-2 count for his career, Jeter's OBP is .280. And, he may have been facing "playoff pitching", but Chan Ho Park's ERA+ this year was 97, and he has pitched poorly in the playoffs, so far. So, I think it's more accurate to say he was facing below average pitching.

[omg]

I think it was a bad move for him to bunt 0-0,0-1, or 0-2. He's one of the best hitters in the game. Let him break the game open or at least go the other way, which he can do.

He was overthinking.

[FindAGap12]

"Against play-off pitching, Jeter's odds of getting a clean hit or BB during an AB where he gets into an 0-2 hole are probably around 20-25%.

--Whereas, my guess is that a good bunter like Jeter is able to get a sac bunt down on at least 30% of the pitches that he offers at."

But the difference is that the sac bunt creates an out and the bb or hit does not. So a 30% chance of moving runners up but giving an out is much less appealing than a 25% chance of jeter himself getting on base.