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Reply With QuoteRTGF, are you Richard Van Zandt, the guy who wrote the article?
Another wonderful season of baseball is in the books, leaving us with yet another long winter of staring out the window and waiting for spring. It’s also that time of year to renew the annual debate over individual post-season honors. As I did last season, I have delved into the issue of who deserves to be awarded the coveted Cy Young trophy in the National League. And as was the case last year, I cannot deny my obvious bias. Tim Lincecum, if you didn’t already know, is my favorite player is the game. Biased or not, and after some intensive and in-depth crunching of the numbers of all the league’s top pitchers, I have come to the conclusion that Timmy has been, for the second consecutive year, the best pitcher overall in the senior circuit.
Read More: http://baseballevolution.com/richard/09nlcyyoung.html
RTGF, are you Richard Van Zandt, the guy who wrote the article?
Without going into WAR, RP, DIPS, PRC and speaking solely on anecdotal observation & looking into traditional non-sabermetric stats, I would say its a toss up. Chris Carpenter had the best season on aggregate, but threw only 192 IP. Wainwright was less dominant than Lincecum in 8 more innings, but pitched in a significantly less-friendly environment. Linecum had the most dominating season in terms of hits allowed and SO, but pitches at PacBell.
All in all, I probably have to go for Carpenter despite the lowish 192 IP. Aside from having the best overall numbers (ERA, WHIP, HR/9 IP, etc), I'm more impressed with his home/away splits. Carpenter was actually better on the road, going 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA & 0.88 WHIP. It's clear Lincecum on the other hand, was helped significantly by him home park; he posted a 10-2 /1.88 ERA / 1.01 WHIP / 0 HR allowed line a home but 5-5 / 3.21 ERA / 10 HR allowed on the road. Oddly enough, he was better on the road the last couple of years prior. Wainwright also has much more irregular home/away splits.
So all things considered, I'll go with Carpenter simply because he pitched the best by a measurable margin in a more hitter-friendly yard while being the ERA, ERA+, WP% leader, lowest HR/9 and much more dominant road record. I have Wainwright edging out Linecum for posting comparable ERA numbers and leading in W and IP while but being less dominant because of the home park. But it's extremely close and wouldn't complain either way.
Last edited by Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan; 11-07-2009 at 07:28 AM.
That is correct.Originally Posted by Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan
I don't think Wainwright is even close. It's a two-horse race as far as I'm concerned.
Rich, it may not be particularly close if you judge Wainwright against Lincecum using most sabermetric stats, H/9 or strikeouts, but at the end of the day, Lincecum only had an ERA 0.15 better playing in a much more pitching friendly yard - and that's what counts. Wainwright allowed more runners, more HR and the like, but apparently pitched better with RISP. So I'm going with Wainwright based on the ultimate arbiter, ERA, being slightly in favor of Wainwright in 8 more IP adjusted for home park.
1 pitching statistic is all that counts? I compared them with over 100 different categories, not just one. Wainwright fell way short.
Oh, not to mention that Wainwright enjoyed silly run support.
Last edited by Rich the Giants fan; 11-08-2009 at 09:09 AM.
Park Factors (per B-R.com: The value indicate a number above 100 is a park good for hitters and below 100 is a park good for pitchers.)
St. Louis - multi-year: batting 99, pitching 99
one-year: batting 98, pitching 98
San Francisco - multi-year: batting 101, pitching 101
one-year: batting 103, pitching 104
Just because Willie Mays Field suppresses home runs, does not mean it supresses scoring. Judging from their park factors, Carpenter and Wainwright pitched in more friendly home surroundings than did Lincecum.
To narrow things down initially, I compared the top 12 in the NL in ERA in over 100 different statistical categories. Head-to-head as such, Lincecum led in 35 categories, Carpenter 26, Wainwright 8 and Vazquez 6.
Re-comparing the top 6 after that came up with these results: Lincecum 41, Carpenter 28, Wainwright 11, Haren 11, Johnson 8, Vazquez 6.
Two-horse race.
w/RISP:
W - .209
L - .226
2 out w/RISP:
W - .194
L - .233
Men on:
W - .218
L - .218
None on:
W - .263
L - .200
vs non-P:
W - .256
L - .213
BAA All:
W - .244
L - .206
OBP:
W - .297
L - .271
SLG:
W - .349
L - .290
OPS:
W - .646
L - .561
Guess those small advantages trump everything else?
Carpenter and Lincecum performed at pretty much the same level, but Lincecum did hurl and additional 32 innings. That gives him my vote. Wainwright slightly lags these two.
Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball
If Wainwright indeed pitched in a more pitcher friendly park, then I'd vote for Lincecum. I thought SanFran was a much worse place for hitters than St.Louis; guess I was wrong.
In terms of the other stats, I acknowledge Lincecums dominance in most everything. However, at the end of the day, the name of the game is not allowing runs. Wainwright could lose all the sabermetric battles but if his ERA, and to a lesser degree total runs allowed, is similar to Lincecum, then I don't differentiate between performance. I would acknowledge Linecum was more dominant but not necessarily more effective. This could be due to luck, circumstance or whatever, it doesn't matter.
ERA
L - 2.48
W - 2.63
ERA+
L - 173
W - 158
RA
L - 2.76
W - 2.90
DIPS
L - 2.48
W - 3.22
FIP
L - 2.37
W - 3.16
xFIP
L - 2.95
W - 3.47
FRA*
L - 2.73
W - 2.82
* "Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.
Kudos Rich to your argument; you nailed it! The voters obviously took into account that Lincecum was the most dominant pitcher, and the extra innings over Carpenter (and split vote with Wainwright) sealed the deal. An excellent argument which was obviously taken at face value by the voters
the city by the bay
^
more than one voter has stated that lincecum's sheer dominance was important, as was carpenter not eaching 200 innings.
wainwright garnering the most first-place votes is puzzling, though.
"you don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. just get people to stop reading them." -ray bradbury
I agree Tony, Timmy's dominence had to play into the vote.
I think we Giants fans are witnessing something I'd never thought we'd see...somebody who could be as good as Marichal. IMO Timmy has the arm, and the mental make-up to be great. And I mean GREAT. He's already the best pitcher in the NL, and he's going to get better. All he really needs to have his arm not fall off and a better haircut. That and some hitters in the lineup!
Sure , Maybe I'm chugging the orange and black kool-aid, but I've watched a lot of hurlers over the past 45 years, and to me, this isn't a fluke or a flash in the pan. It's the real deal Giants fans, Rejoice!
Do you feel the rue? Do you??!!--Neville Paperman
