VC Finalists-Herzog, Harvey and Bill White

[Captain Cold Nose]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4642412

I'm wonder if Marvin Miller will continue to lose votes.

[dgarza]

Clue me in... 2 Steve O'Neills?

[Captain Cold Nose]

Clue me in... 2 Steve O'Neills?

They must have allowed the proofreader to make the office coffee that day.

With all the attention on bad calls during the post-season, how does it look if Doug Harvey is elected after being so close the last time?

If Charlie Grimm is elected, will they swap his plaque position for Joe Gordon's?

Will Bill Burgess cry if Col. Ruppert gets his due?

[KCGHOST]

Hoping against hope that the electorate elects no one. This new VC set-up just seems rigged to elect managers and other non-players.

[Paul Wendt]

>>
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. -- Billy Martin, Whitey Herzog, Gene Mauch and Danny Murtaugh are among the former managers who will be on the ballot when the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee votes next month.

Tom Kelly, Davey Johnson, Steve O'Neill and Charlie Grimm also are on the 10-man ballot for managers and umpires. The Hall released the names Tuesday.

Doug Harvey and Hank O'Day are the umpires up for consideration.
<<

Here is the result of the meeting two years ago for 2008 induction. The committee of 16 considered 10 candidates, vote for as many as four with 12 votes needed election. The second column gives the result of the preceding vote by HOF members and honorees, restricted to these 10 nominees.

Numbers of votes for managers and umpires
2008	2007	
13		Billy	Southworth
13	30	Dick	Williams
11	52	Doug	Harvey
11	29	Whitey	Herzog
6		Danny	Murtaugh
4		Hank	O'Day
1		Davey	Johnson
1	12	Billy	Martin
1		Gene	Mauch
1		Cy	Rigler

'1' represents 0 to 2 votes each; no more than 6 total

Southworth and Williams were elected (blue). Seven runners up have been renominated (bold) while umpire Rigler have been replaced by managers Tom Kelly, Steve O'Neill, and Charlie Grimm.

Two years ago the committee cast at least 58 of its permitted 64 votes (64 is my guess), so at least ten members cast all four of their allotments. We may expect that leading incumbents Harvey, Herzog, Murtaugh, and O'Day will all garner more votes next month, a good share of the 26 votes previously cast for Southworth and Williams. Anyone who then supported five or six of the strong candidates may now vote for all four who remain.

[nyykan_t]

I'm shock that Jacob Ruppert is not in the HOF. He was the one who built the Yankees Dynasty.

[Paul Wendt]

>>
A separate ballot for executives and pioneers includes former owners Gene Autry (Angels), Ewing Kauffman (Royals), John Fetzer (Tigers), Jacob Ruppert (Yankees) and Sam Breadon (St. Louis Cardinals) along with former players' association head Marvin Miller.

Retired National League president Bill White and former general managers Bob Howsam, John McHale and Gabe Paul also will be considered.
<<

Here is the result of the meeting two years ago for 2008 induction. The committee of 12 considered 10 candidates, vote for as many as four with 9 votes needed election. The second column gives the result of the preceding vote by HOF members and honorees, restricted to these 10 nominees.

Numbers of votes for executives
2008	2007
10		Barney	Dreyfuss
10	14	Bowie	Kuhn
9	36	Walter	O'Malley
5		Ewing	Kauffman
4		John	Fetzer
3		Bob	Howsam
3	51	Marvin	Miller
1	30	Buzzie	Bavasi
1		John	McHale
1	10	Gabe	Paul

'1' represents 0 to 2 votes each; no more than 4 total.

Dreyfuss, Kuhn, and O'Malley were elected (blue). Six runners up have been renominated (bold) while GM Bavasi has been replaced by owners Gene Autry, Sam Breadon, Jacob Ruppert, and league president Bill White.

Note that GM Buzzie Bavasi ran with owner Walter O'Malley, 30 and 36 votes, when the HOF members and honorees held the franchise (2007). I daresay we may expect that the owners continue to spank the GMs in these committee meetings.

Two years ago several committee members explained that Marvin Miller is a strong candidate but the slate and the rule, vote for no more than four, required choosing among strong candidates. That committee cast at least 44 of its permitted 48 votes (48 is my guess), so at least eight members cast all four of their allotments. We may expect that leading incumbents Kauffman, Fetzer, Miller, and Howsam will all garner more votes next month, a good share of the 29 votes previously cast for the big three.

[Paul Wendt]

I'm shock that Jacob Ruppert is not in the HOF. He was the one who built the Yankees Dynasty.

Sam Breadon represents the Cardinals in the same way.

Honoring the owner is a novelty. Once it was routine to recognize general managers in name or function as the builders of great ballclubs. Ed Barrow and Branch Rickey enjoyed the lion's share of the credit for the Yankees and Cardinals. (Larry MacPhail and George Weiss for the Dodgers and Yankees a generation later?) Field managers got their share, Huggins and McCarthy for the "Barrow Yankees". Maybe the successful ballclub was practically equated with the winning team so that selecting, acquiring, developing, and leading players were presumed to bethe crucial and honorable roles.

[nyykan_t]

Sam Breadon represents the Cardinals in the same way.

Honoring the owner is a novelty. Once it was routine to recognize general managers in name or function as the builders of great ballclubs. Ed Barrow and Branch Rickey enjoyed the lion's share of the credit for the Yankees and Cardinals. (Larry MacPhail and George Weiss for the Dodgers and Yankees a generation later?) Field managers got their share, Huggins and McCarthy for the "Barrow Yankees". Maybe the successful ballclub was practically equated with the winning team so that selecting, acquiring, developing, and leading players were presumed to bethe crucial and honorable roles.

What piss me off is that Tom Yawkey was inducted 29 years ago, while Jacob Ruppert and Sam Breadon are still outside the Hall.

[Paul Wendt]

What piss me off is that Tom Yawkey was inducted 29 years ago, while Jacob Ruppert and Sam Breadon are still outside the Hall.

That was exceptional. Until the special Negro Leagues election of 2006 and the election of Dreyfuss and O'Malley two years ago, the Hall of Fame had inducted only Yawkey and one other owner, Bill Veeck, younger than the league builders Mack, Comiskey, Griffith (iirc). It had elected only Yawkey and Veeck since electing Griffith in 1945 (iirc).

Veeck is in the Hall of Fame for his baseball work while the principal owner of a major league club. I'm not sure that is true of Yawkey. It may be that owner Yawkey and NL/MLB executive Ford Frick are really honored primarily as supporters of the Hall of Fame as an institution, Yawkey for donating money and Frick for donating time and energy.
--


Here in the first column is the full result of the 2007 "vote by HOF members and honorees" that appears partly in the second columns of my two tables above (#5,7). Here the second column gives the full result of the parallel 2003 election. These were the two combined Contributors elections under the "veterans committee" regime between the 2001/2002 and 2007 reforms. (That will someday be "the interregnum" if the present system survives for a long while.) Evidently the same 15 candidates were nominated for both 2003 and 2007.

2007	2003			where are they now?	
52	48	Doug Harvey	Managers & Umpires ballot
51	35	Marvin Miller	Executives ballot
36	38	Walter O'Malley	* elected two years ago
30	34	Buzzie Bavasi	--
30	33	Dick Williams	* elected two years ago
29	25	Whitey Herzog	Managers & Umpires ballot
24	22	Bill White	Executives ballot
14	20	Bowie Kuhn	* elected two years ago
13	11	August Busch	--
12	22	Billy Martin	Managers & Umpires ballot 
10	13	Gabe Paul	Executives ballot
10	9	Charley Finley	--
10	10	Paul Richards	--
9	9	Phil Wrigley	--
8	6	Harry Dalton	--

-- "so sorry to see you go"
* elected two years ago

[Fuzzy Bear]

Herzog deserves induction.

So does Danny Murtaugh, the most underrated great manager in baseball history. His induction is long overdue, IMO.

[Cougar]

My top 8 eligible HOF candidates as managers

1. Whitey Herzog (Cardinals)
2. Billy Martin (Yankees)
3. Gene Mauch (Phillies)
4. Davey Johnson (Mets)
5. Danny Murtaugh (Pirates)
6. Ralph Houk (Yankees)
7. Charlie Grimm (Cubs)
8. Steve O’Neill (Tigers)

Replace Tom Kelly (who I've got at #12, and who's a pretty good candidate himself) with Houk and let them all in.

(Not gonna happen, I know.)

The lack of love for Houk is puzzling in my mind.

[Cougar]

But, I should add, major kudos to the selection committee for putting together a really good ballot here, Houk or no Houk.

I think they got the umps right too -- Harvey's a no brainer, and this should be his year, but O'Day's a nice choice as well.

[Michael Green]

I saw this clip the other day of the Dodgers-Astros series at the end of the 1980 season--the Dodgers swept it, then lost the one-game playoff. Harvey's crew worked the series, then Harvey worked the plate in the playoff. I had never noticed umpires before, and I never saw a better-umpired series. In the clip, the benches clear when two players get into it at home plate. Harvey jumps between them, gets them separated, then starts put up his hands and waving at both sides--and they basically STOPPED. His nickname was God. For good reason. He should be in the Hall of Fame.

I am not convinced about owners like Ruppert and Breadon. Veeck was obviously an incredible innovator. O'Malley--Brooklyn hates him for it--took the risk with the West Coast; we now know it wasn't that big a risk, but could we be sure at the time? I'm not convinced that Ruppert and Breadon did anything except give the financial and moral support that Barrow and Rickey, respectively, needed. Not that they are undeserving, but I'm just not convinced.

Marvin Miller wanted his name off the ballot. When the membership comprised the voting group and didn't put him in, I thought the players involved were the most ungrateful group of swine that ever lived. No one has had a bigger impact on modern major league baseball, for better or worse (better, in my opinion). He belongs.

Several of the managers are possible, but I think longevity is important, too. Billy Martin's life and career became such a circus that it's hard to judge him, although he certainly won a lot. Whitey Herzog built the great Cardinals teams, carried the Royals a long way, and--we tend to forget--was instrumental in the Mets organization in helping to build the 1969 team.

Which somehow reminds me: Gil Hodges. He should be in there.

[Paul Wendt]

Here is a different organization of the same data presented in #5, #7, #10. Within each occupation (bold) the 2010 nominees are listed first (winners orange), followed by past winners (hofers, blue) and past nominees. Subgroups are ordered by numbers of votes in their most recent election before this fall.

The 2007/2008 reform (partly described below) brought a massive shift of support to club owners and Bowie Kuhn, away from club GMs and Marvin Miller, whose election was barely prevented.

Updated 2009-12-07 to incorporate 2010 results.

2003	2007	2008	2010 (induction year)
				primary role
80	71	46	30	team Manager
48	52	16	23	Umpire

77	89	13	8	High executive
67	68	28	23	club Owner
63	58	6	3	club General Manager

--	--	58-64	48-58	committee on Managers & Umpires (max 64 votes)
--	--	44-48	28-40	committee on Executives (maximum 48 votes)

* above, 2008 and 2010 counts include estimates 1 for "less than three".
* below, 1 means "less than three" votes, 0 to 2

2003	2007	2008	2010
team Managers	
25	29	11	14	Whitey Herzog
		6	8	Danny	Murtaugh
22	12	1	1	Billy	Martin
		1	1	Davey	Johnson
		1	1	Gene	Mauch
			3	Charlie	Grimm
			1	Tom	Kelly
			1	Steve	O'Neill
33	30	13		Dick	Williams
		13		Billy	Southworth
Umpires	
48	52	11	15	Doug Harvey
		4	8	Hank	O'Day
		1		Cy	Rigler
high Officials		
35	51	3	7	Marvin	Miller	LABOR
22	24		1	Bill	White
20	14	10		Bowie	Kuhn
club Owners
		5	6	Ewing	Kauffman
		4	8	John	Fetzer
			1	Gene	Autry
			1	Sam	Breadon
			7	Jack	Ruppert
		10		Barney	Dreyfuss
38	36	9		Walter	O'Malley
11	13			August	Busch
9	10			Charley	Finley
9	9			Phil	Wrigley
club General Managers	
		3	1	Bob	Howsam
13	10	1	1	Gabe	Paul
		1	1	John	McHale
34	30	1		Buzzie	Bavasi
10	10			Paul	Richards
6	8			Harry	Dalton

2003	2007	2008	2010

For 2003 and 2007 the Historical Overview Committee nominated 60 contributors, 15 of whom advanced to a single final ballot voted by Hall of Fame members and nominees (about 2/3 players). For 2008 and 2010 the Historical Overview Committee directly nominated 10 managers and umpires for consideration by a committee of 16. A committee of 12 final voters nominated its own list of 10 executives for 2008, perhaps repeated for 2010.

[64Cards]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4642412

I'm wonder if Marvin Miller will continue to lose votes.

I hope so. If they build a labor leaders HOF I'd put him in, next to Walter Reuther, John Lewis amd some of those lovable lugs from the Teamsters, like Hoffa and Fitzsimmons.

[Cougar]

Marvin Miller should obviously be in as a contributor, but I can't help but wonder if Miller advances the cause of labor more as an egregious HOF snub than he would as an enshrined HOFer.

[Michael Green]

Cougar, I follow what you mean. All I need to know about why Miller should be in there is that the owners thought they should have unrestricted free agency, he told them he would help them by letting them control the players for the first six seasons, and they thought he was doing them a favor when he was actually protecting the players from a free-for-all. That's why I subscribe to the great theory of Edward Bennett Williams, who owned the Orioles and Redskins, and said that the dumbest NFL owner is smarter than the smartest MLB owner.

It's hard to feel sympathy, I know, when the players are so overpaid--and they are; we can talk about market value and compare them with other "entertainers," but that doesn't make anybody in that argument any less overpaid. But I am amazed at the people who are critical of baseball players and other athletes for taking big paychecks, as if we would not take a better offer ourselves.

[J W]

Not much to add; I think Harvey and Herzog would be welcome additions to Coopertsown. I'd be surprised if anyone else is elected from the managers/umps ballot this time.

The owners/execs ballot... I have no idea what direction that will go in, but I'm rooting for Bob Howsam. Ruppert and Breadon would also be solid picks. I unfortunately don't see Miller making it.

[J W]

Question: what's the appeal of John McHale? He tried three times as an GM and fell short every time. How important, really, was establishing a team in Montreal in the grand scheme of MLB?

[Paul Wendt]

Question: what's the appeal of John McHale? He tried three times as an GM and fell short every time. How important, really, was establishing a team in Montreal in the grand scheme of MLB?

Two years ago I wondered whether he had been nominated because his death was anticipated.

He filled a few positions for Baseball and for the Hall of Fame rather than for particular clubs. I don't know whether any of them may be considered important (surely not his HOF Veterans Committee service), or what stature earned elsewhere they may indicate. One that he didn't get was Commissioner of Baseball in 1968. "He had strong support in the American League, but NL owners — who wanted McHale's experienced hand turned toward the fledgling Expo franchise — intervened and McHale's candidacy was halted." (Wikipedia cites the TSN Baseball Guide for 1969.)

[klbo3plus3]

It seems like the difficulty of predicting the outcome of this vote is pretty high? It seems like Harvey and Herzog may have the best shot on the managers/umpires side. I don't know enough about the execs to make a guess. Any thoughts on the likely number of inductees? For me it seems like more than 3 or 4 out of this bunch (both groups) would be excessive, but I fear they will induct 5 or 6 due to the low number of voters.

[Captain Cold Nose]

It seems like the difficulty of predicting the outcome of this vote is pretty high? It seems like Harvey and Herzog may have the best shot on the managers/umpires side. I don't know enough about the execs to make a guess. Any thoughts on the likely number of inductees? For me it seems like more than 3 or 4 out of this bunch (both groups) would be excessive, but I fear they will induct 5 or 6 due to the low number of voters.

Which is what happened the last time they did this vote.

I'll be glad to see Herzog and Harvey get their due, if they do. Barney Dreyfuss's election tells me an owner will get in. Probably Ruppert.

[Paul Wendt]

... I am not convinced about owners like Ruppert and Breadon. Veeck was obviously an incredible innovator. O'Malley--Brooklyn hates him for it--took the risk with the West Coast; we now know it wasn't that big a risk, but could we be sure at the time? I'm not convinced that Ruppert and Breadon did anything except give the financial and moral support that Barrow and Rickey, respectively, needed. Not that they are undeserving, but I'm just not convinced.

I suppose that that was a popular position one and two generations ago, and that is a big part of good explanation why the Hall of Fame didn't elect club owners. There has been a cultural change. Lacking a better term, I'll call it the celebration of capitalism. For those who don't believe in culture, that doesn't exclude "real" change. Owners really have more power and responsibility, managers less (and workers less, and government more, but they are out of the picture here).

Still, I go back again to the structure of the veterans committees since the 2007 reform, relative to the famous VC formed in 1953 (active 1953-2001). The 2001 reform that governed elections for 2003/2005/2007 is important mainly as a clean break between the regimes governing elections for 1953-2001 and those for 2008-20??.

Procedurally, the first radical reform and following six-year break must have been important, maybe crucial. In 2001 the NBHOFM probably would have appointed the current veterans committees mainly from members of the old VC. In composition they would have been nearly subcommittees of the old VC, which would support continuity in other respects. Alternatively, in 2001 the NBHOFM might have granted the HOF players jurisdiction over recent player candidates only (which has been a net outcome of the two reforms), and retained the old VC with jurisdiction over all other candidates.

[Paul Wendt]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4642412

I'm wonder if Marvin Miller will continue to lose votes.

I think it's barely possible that anyone will continue to lose votes. The composition of the committee changed radically before 2008, and the members were limited to casting four Yes votes each. Since then the composition has been stable (how stable?) and three winners have departed the top of the ballot. We know that the four-vote ceiling was binding for almost every committee member, if not all. On average they have more than two votes freed by the departure of Dreyfuss, O'Malley and Kuhn.

It seems likely that Kauffman, Fetzer, Howsam, and Miller will all gain votes.
OK, I predict they gain at least two vote each.

...Marvin Miller wanted his name off the ballot.

Can you tell us more about that?