Tim Lincecum

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's kind of funny. Lincecum wasn't particularly high on my HOF radar. If you look at his record, and I mean just the raw numbers, you wouldn't think you were looking at a future HOFer, even adjusting for era. Then he goes out and, to my utter surprise, wins a 2nd consecutive Cy Young Award.

Not many pitchers have done this, and the ones that have are an impressive lot. Let's see: Sandy Koufax. Roger Clemens. Greg Maddux (4 straight). Randy Johnson (wow, he won 4 straight). Pedro Martinez. Jim Palmer. Denny McLain. Of the lot of those guys, McLain is the only one not going to the HOF, and he had an extremely high peak. The rest of the guys are all going to the HOF; even Clemens, one of these days.

None of these guys started out their careers winning consecutive CYAs, but Lincecum is the only guy to do it his first two FULL years as a starter. And, to top it off, he led the league in Ks the last 2 years.

So how much, exactly, did Tim Lincecum project himself toward the HOF this past year. He's not there yet, and he won't go in if his arm dies next year, but how close is he? Could he get into the HOF if he wins 200 games with a decent W-L record, if the core of his greatness is the past two (2) seasons?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

It's kind of funny. Lincecum wasn't particularly high on my HOF radar. If you look at his record, and I mean just the raw numbers, you wouldn't think you were looking at a future HOFer, even adjusting for era. Then he goes out and, to my utter surprise, wins a 2nd consecutive Cy Young Award.

Not many pitchers have done this, and the ones that have are an impressive lot. Let's see: Sandy Koufax. Roger Clemens. Greg Maddux (4 straight). Randy Johnson (wow, he won 4 straight). Pedro Martinez. Jim Palmer. Denny McLain. Of the lot of those guys, McLain is the only one not going to the HOF, and he had an extremely high peak. The rest of the guys are all going to the HOF; even Clemens, one of these days.

None of these guys started out their careers winning consecutive CYAs, but Lincecum is the only guy to do it his first two FULL years as a starter. And, to top it off, he led the league in Ks the last 2 years.

So how much, exactly, did Tim Lincecum project himself toward the HOF this past year. He's not there yet, and he won't go in if his arm dies next year, but how close is he? Could he get into the HOF if he wins 200 games with a decent W-L record, if the core of his greatness is the past two (2) seasons?

Well, I expect him to take one more step and perhaps be Pedro-esque in his prime seasons so he'll have more that a two year "peak". But let Lincecum put in 6-7 seasons before we start talking HoF.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

It's kind of funny. Lincecum wasn't particularly high on my HOF radar. If you look at his record, and I mean just the raw numbers, you wouldn't think you were looking at a future HOFer, even adjusting for era. Then he goes out and, to my utter surprise, wins a 2nd consecutive Cy Young Award.

Really? Going into 2009, I know Lincecum's career was a tiny sample size, but winning a Cy Young in his first full season at age 24 didn't at least put him on your HOF radar? He also had a .700 career winning percentage and a 141 career ERA+ after 2008. I agree that he significantly increased his odds of becoming a HOFer in 2009, but he at least should've been a guy whose career you had made a mental note to follow closely before the season even started. He's got a long way to go, but you can't possibly expect him to have accomplished any more at this point in his career. On a side note, I think it's a reasonable assumption to think that he'll get a little bit better when he hits his late 20s or early 30s. The sky is the limit for him right now.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

Well, I expect him to take one more step and perhaps be Pedro-esque in his prime seasons so he'll have more that a two year "peak". But let's lets Lincecum put in 6-7 seasons before we start talking HoF.

agreed ...

[Senor Octobre]

He's certainly got a great start.

[Aqua]

Just for the heck of it, I compared Lincecum's back-to-back Cy years with the years of the other pitchers who won back-to-back.

Lincecum:
2008: 18-5, 2.62, 227 IP, 265 K, 169 ERA+
2009: 15-7, 2.48, 225 IP, 261 K, 176 ERA+

Koufax:
1965: 26-8, 2.04, 335.2 IP, 382 K, 160 ERA+
1966: 27-9, 1.73, 323 IP, 317 K, 190 ERA+

Clemens:
1986: 24-4, 2.48, 254 IP, 238 K, 169 ERA+
1987: 20-9, 2.97, 281.2 IP, 256 K, 154 ERA+

1997: 21-7, 2.05, 264 IP, 292 K, 221 ERA+
1998: 20-6, 2.65, 234.2 IP, 271 K, 174 ERA+

Maddux:
1992: 20-11, 2.18, 263 IP, 198 K, 166 ERA+
1993: 20-10, 2.36, 267 IP, 197 K, 171 ERA+
1994: 16-6, 1.56, 202 IP, 156 K, 271 ERA+
1995: 19-2, 1.63, 209.2 IP, 181 K, 262 ERA+

Johnson:
1999: 17-9, 2.48, 271.2 IP, 364 K, 186 ERA+
2000: 19-7, 2.64, 248.2 IP, 347 K, 181 ERA+
2001: 21-6, 2.49, 249.2 IP, 372 K, 188 ERA+
2002: 24-5, 2.32, 260 IP, 334 K, 197 ERA+

Martinez:
1999: 23-4, 2.07, 213.1 IP, 313 K, 243 ERA+
2000: 18-6, 1.74, 217 IP, 284 K, 291 ERA+

Palmer:
1975: 23-11, 2.09, 323 IP, 193 K, 169 ERA+
1976: 22-13, 2.51, 315 IP, 159 K, 130 ERA+

McClain:
1968: 31-6, 1.96, 336 IP, 280 K, 154 ERA+
1969: 24-9, 2.80, 325 IP, 181 K, 135 ERA+


Clemens' 97-98 and Maddux's, Johnson's, Koufax's, and Martinez's runs look clearly superior to me. You could make a case that Lincecum's years are better than Clemens' first two years, but I wouldn't, given Clemens' massive advantage in IP. Palmer and McClain are harder to judge for me; compared to league, Lincecum was a good deal better, but the IP differences are enormous (and even in the context of their times, McClain in particular was a horse), and I tend to give LQ advantages to both Palmer and McClain over Lincecum; I don't have a lot of love for the '00s NL. Nonetheless, if you say you prefer Lincecum over them, I won't argue.

At any rate, Lincecum's back-to-back Cys are, IMO, less impressive than any of the others, except possibly Palmer, who's a HoFer on career rather than peak, and McClain, who will never be a HoFer, and whose 1960's peak was massively overrated at the time.

This doesn't mean Lincecum's not a potential HoFer, or someone whose career doesn't bear watching. It does mean that it's possible that his hardware isn't quite as impressive as it might otherwise be, IMHO.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Really? Going into 2009, I know Lincecum's career was a tiny sample size, but winning a Cy Young in his first full season at age 24 didn't at least put him on your HOF radar? He also had a .700 career winning percentage and a 141 career ERA+ after 2008. I agree that he significantly increased his odds of becoming a HOFer in 2009, but he at least should've been a guy whose career you had made a mental note to follow closely before the season even started. He's got a long way to go, but you can't possibly expect him to have accomplished any more at this point in his career. On a side note, I think it's a reasonable assumption to think that he'll get a little bit better when he hits his late 20s or early 30s. The sky is the limit for him right now.

He wasn't really on my HOF radar because (A) I viewed Lincecum's 2008 season as something of a fluke, and (B) his win total this year was OK, but not CYA stuff. Or so I thought.

I guess here's the question: How would the BBWA view Lincecum if he wins 4 Cy Young Awards with seasons like this, but never wins 20, and doesn't win 200 games? Lincecum could easily win 4 Cy Young awards, have 3,000 Ks, and post a record of 199-100. What's going to carry the day; the somewhat ordinary wins totals, or the number of awards he wins?

[Second Base Coach]

In my opinion, the second biggest factor when looking at someone's HOF chances is the age at which he was recognized as being very good (read: famous). You don't see many HOFers who had late starts.

The first is "overall health" of course.

Ability is in there somewhere too, but there are several players who would have made it if they could have traded ten percent of their talent for three fewer injuries.

Getting back to the title of the thread.... his early splash is just about as large as one guy can make under present playing conditions.

He may not even have to improve from here. Timmy, just stay the course and don't run into any walls shagging flies during batting practice.

[Fuzzy Bear]

In my opinion, the second biggest factor when looking at someone's HOF chances is the age at which he was recognized as being very good (read: famous). You don't see many HOFers who had late starts.

The first is "overall health" of course.

Ability is in there somewhere too, but there are several players who would have made it if they could have traded ten percent of their talent for three fewer injuries.

Getting back to the title of the thread.... his early splash is just about as large as one guy can make under present playing conditions.

He may not even have to improve from here. Timmy, just stay the course and don't run into any walls shagging flies during batting practice.

That's normally what I would think about that situation. The problem is that Lincecum's Win totals don't say HOF.

We may well be redefining what makes a HOF-caliber starting pitcher. If Lincecum is truly the best pitcher in the NL, then it's quite possible that a pitcher can be truly great and never win 20. Specialization has created this, as well as power-friendly ballparks. If people recognize that Lincecum is a guy who would have won 20 back to back in 1965-66, he really doesn't have to improve at all. My guess, however, is that in order to make the HOF, he's going to have to win 20 at least once, or have a Mussina-length career.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

That's normally what I would think about that situation. The problem is that Lincecum's Win totals don't say HOF.

Lincecum's low win totals are a function of the Giants lousy offense. Given an average offense he would have won 20 games in '08 for sure and likely in '09.

We may well be redefining what makes a HOF-caliber starting pitcher. If Lincecum is truly the best pitcher in the NL, then it's quite possible that a pitcher can be truly great and never win 20. Specialization has created this, as well as power-friendly ballparks. If people recognize that Lincecum is a guy who would have won 20 back to back in 1965-66, he really doesn't have to improve at all. My guess, however, is that in order to make the HOF, he's going to have to win 20 at least once, or have a Mussina-length career.

Does anyone really think Lincecum can't win 20 games and never will? He's had two full season for goodness sakes. He's had an 18 win season and a 15 win season. Again his low win totals are a function of the Giants poor offense. Also, Greg Maddux had just two twenty-win seasons in his long and illustrustrious career. I fully expect Lincecum to win 20 games a few times in his career.

[nyykan_t]

That's normally what I would think about that situation. The problem is that Lincecum's Win totals don't say HOF.

We may well be redefining what makes a HOF-caliber starting pitcher. If Lincecum is truly the best pitcher in the NL, then it's quite possible that a pitcher can be truly great and never win 20. Specialization has created this, as well as power-friendly ballparks. If people recognize that Lincecum is a guy who would have won 20 back to back in 1965-66, he really doesn't have to improve at all. My guess, however, is that in order to make the HOF, he's going to have to win 20 at least once, or have a Mussina-length career.

Moose had one 20 wins season, his last season.

[ol' aches and pains]

One of the criteria HOF voters use when evaluating a player is "was he the best in the league at his position for a significant portion of his career?" If Lincecum continues pitching at the same level of his last two seasons, and wins a few more CYA's, I think he's in. But part of me still thinks it's silly to speculate about HOF chances for a player with less than three full seasons in the Majors.

[bob]

Wins are not as important as they used to be, for CYA/MVP or HOF. 20 win seasons are getting rarer and 25 win seasons are likely to become once in a blue moon events, but that doesnt mean pitchers are getting worse. Its just harder to get a win when your manager takes you out after 7 innings when youve only given up 2 or 3 runs and you only pitch every 5th day.
Yes if you have alot of wins your going to much more likely to make the HOF, but by the time the current batch of A-list pitchers retire i think voters (CYA especially, HOF voters tend to be more stuck in their ways) will be able to look beyond wins.

[NJRob65]

Well, I expect him to take one more step and perhaps be Pedro-esque in his prime seasons so he'll have more that a two year "peak". But let Lincecum put in 6-7 seasons before we start talking HoF.

Or 9 or 10 seasons.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Or 9 or 10 seasons.

We don't have to wait that long that long to start considering the HoF for an elite player.

[Freakshow]

Wins are not as important as they used to be, for CYA/MVP or HOF. 20 win seasons are getting rarer and 25 win seasons are likely to become once in a blue moon events, but that doesnt mean pitchers are getting worse. Its just harder to get a win when your manager takes you out after 7 innings when youve only given up 2 or 3 runs and you only pitch every 5th day.
Yes if you have alot of wins your going to much more likely to make the HOF, but by the time the current batch of A-list pitchers retire i think voters (CYA especially, HOF voters tend to be more stuck in their ways) will be able to look beyond wins.

Most wins in a season 2003-2009:

Rk	Player	        W	L	ERA+	IP	Year	Age
1	Brandon Webb	22	7	139	226.2	2008	29
2	Cliff Lee	22	3	175	223.1	2008	29
3	Dontrel Willis	22	10	151	236.1	2005	23
4	Roy Halladay	22	7	145	266.0	2003	26
5	Bartolo Colon	21	8	122	222.2	2005	32
6	Chris Carpenter	21	5	149	241.2	2005	30
7	Curt Schilling	21	6	150	226.2	2004	37
8	Andy Pettitte	21	8	109	208.1	2003	31
9	Russ Ortiz	21	7	112	212.1	2003	29
10	Esteban Loaiza	21	9	159	226.1	2003	31
11	Jamie Moyer	21	7	132	215.0	2003	40

[GiambiJuice]

Too soon...

[DoubleX]

With 2 Cy Youngs by age 25, it's hard not to start thinking that Lincecum is at the beginning of a Hall of Fame career. He still has a long way to go though, and we've seen with the likes of Bret Saberhagen, Denny McLain, Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Tanana, and others, that early career brilliance can fizzle for a variety of reasons. Though, Lincecum does have a few things going for him that these others didn't - less innings, modern surgery, and hopefully no drug problems.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

With 2 Cy Youngs by age 25, it's hard not to start thinking that Lincecum is at the beginning of a Hall of Fame career. He still has a long way to go though, and we've seen with the likes of Bret Saberhagen, Denny McLain, Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Tanana, and others, that early career brilliance can fizzle for a variety of reasons. Though, Lincecum does have a few things going for him that these others didn't - less innings, modern surgery, and hopefully no drug problems.

I think the key is workload. It's my firm belief that it was Gooden's huge workload as a young pitcher that ruined his career. Even if he never had drug issues he was not destined for a long career. The Mets simply ran his arm into the ground with the huge workloads he had in 1984-87.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Naturally, it is too early to say. It can be said, though, that Lincecum has done nothing but deliver the goods since he began. He's a superstar. Discussing a superstar's HOF-potential is, well, natural.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think the key is workload. It's my firm belief that it was Gooden's huge workload as a young pitcher that ruined his career. Even if he never had drug issues he was not destined for a long career. The Mets simply ran his arm into the ground with the huge workloads he had in 1984-87.

It wasn't just Gooden's workload; it was his workload at a young age (19).

[STLCards2]

It wasn't just Gooden's workload; it was his workload at a young age (19).

I guess it is possible that his arm was "done" after two seasons - since he never did anything in the same stratosphere as 1985 since. I mean he had a 228 ERA+ at 270 IP in 1985. His highs for the rest of his career are 127 and 250 IP. He never cracked the top 5 in ERA again, and only did so in IP once. He went from all-time season to average-to-good from there on out. Were 270 innings too much in 1985, or was 1985 just some weird outlier. I mean his rookie season matches pretty well with 1986 too.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

It wasn't just Gooden's workload; it was his workload at a young age (19).

Isn't that what I said?

It's my firm belief that it was Gooden's huge workload as a young pitcher that ruined his career.

[PVNICK]

I still think with Gooden, Stottlemyre and the staff screwed him up @ 86 or 87 when they tried to have him "pitch to contact" though I don't think that term was in vogue then. It was like why mess with perfection especially when he was never as untouchable as in 84/85? But of course with dozens of pitchers with the high IP at a young age having arm trouble that could be coincidence. But that's a topic for another thread that I am too lazy to make.

So Lincecum has a shot, but as has been pointed out so did Tanana and many others. Too soon.

[dominik]

Lincecum is of course on HOF pace but he either has to keep it for at least ten more years(or only with a slight drop which would also make him go in) or step up to a pedro level for a few years.

He can do it(the first the second is not likely IMO) but he has to stay healthy.