Daniel Murphy - Thoughts?

[Mongoose]

I think Daniel Murphy will put up something close to a .290/.350/.450 line. That is, barring injury and Manuel (or whoever else manages the team this season) jerking him around too much.

Lots of people seem to have become Daniel Murphy haters. I'm not one of them. I think he'll be just fine. It will be interesting to check this thread at the end of the season and see just how he did.

What do you think?

[NJMetfan4life]

I like him, I think that he will be a big contributer, but it think he's a late bloomer at the big league level, he'll get there but I think he will take a year or two more. I think he'll hit .280/.335/.440 with around 15 homeruns this year.

[EasilyFound]

Murphy and Castillo. A championship right side of the infield if I ever heard of one.

[m8644]

For some strange reason I have a weirdly good feeling about Murphy this year. Im not sure why, but I think he's going to be a decent player. Something like Mongoose said (290/350/450)

[Let's Go Mets!]

Despite his ocassional wonderful plays, he still isn't a good defensive ballplayer.

[PVNICK]

I'm inclined to agree with the first two posts somewhere .280/.290/ @ .340/.450 with mid teens in HR. I think hitting wise the negative is I wasn't the only one thinking .300 easy with closer to .400 OBP based on 2008. But he did improve and coincidence or not his bad stretch coincided with Manuel jerking him around, as it was so aptly put.

[theAmazingMet]

I see Murphy at worst a Dave Magadan type player, at best a Mark Grace type. Offensively of course. He seems to have a good eye, and doesnt make many easy outs. I dont see the power though, which is fine provided others in the lineup (Wright, Bay, Franceour, Beltran when healthy) step up in that regard. He can develop into a solid player if he is given a chance.

[robardin]

I'm rooting hard for Murphy and Pelfrey this year. Not just because Minaya's already bet the season on them, along with Oliver Perez, but because they're exactly the sort of miracle story I like to see best: young guy written off way too early (after just one or two full seasons, and in Pelfrey's case, just one bad sophomore season) who rises to astonish the naysayers.

I don't mind seeing the team bet on breakout seasons from young players who've shown talent, or on comeback seasons from injury or "one down season" from linchpin players like Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Santana and the like. What I dislike to see are a cadre of over-30 veterans overpaid for their production and role (Castillo), and spending scattered one-year contracts of 500K-1MM to accumulate a body of castoffs and washups for the bench, bullpen and the back of the starting rotation, guys whose maximum upside is "substitute/bench quality role player", instead of dropping (say) a $2MM (?) one-year contract on a gamble on a pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang whose downside is pretty much the same as those other guys, but whose upside is "20 game winner and solid #2 pitcher behind Santana".

I'm also lukewarm on Santos as a starting catcher because he's not exactly "young talent eager to prove everybody wrong" any more. He's only got parts of 2 years in the majors, but that's because he's been a long time minor leaguer: he turns 29 years old shortly after Opening Day. He hit a few dramatic, clutch home runs for the Mets -- all right, he hit THREE such homers, more than the entire Mets team did in 2003 -- so there's hope he could be a solid backup catcher and pinch hitter, a la Todd Pratt. But a starting catcher? I'd be fine with it if the team were solid in every other position, and so long as Castillo's at 2B and a question mark is at 1B, I'm not sold.

[robardin]

I was trying to think of what other pitchers or position players needed at least 2 years to "season" to reach their full potential, and two came to mind:

Tom Glavine is almost a certain HOF pitcher, but also one who put up pretty mediocre numbers in his first 3+ seasons with the Braves in 1987-1990, with flashes of brilliance mixed in. Pelfrey came up at age 22 in 2006, looked like he'd found his groove in the second half of 2008, then had a down year in 2009. Very similarly, Glavine was 21 years old when he came up in 1987, looked poised to break out in 1989, then "took a step back" in 1990.

1987: 9 GS, 50.1 IP, 2-4 record, 5.54 ERA
1988: 34 GS, 195.1 IP, 7-17 record, 4.56 ERA
1989: 29 GS, 186.0 IP, 14-8 record, 3.68 ERA
1990: 33 GS, 214.1 IP, 10-12 record, 4.28 ERA

But after that down year, Glavine became a very constently good pitcher for the next 10 years:

1991 - 34 GS, 246.2 IP, 20-11, 2.55 ERA
1992 - 33 GS, 225.0 IP, 20-8, 2.76 ERA
1993 - 36 GS, 239.1 IP, 22-6, 3.20 ERA
1994 - 25 GS, 165.1 IP, 13-9, 3.97 ERA
1995 - 29 GS, 198.2 IP, 16-7, 3.08 ERA
1996 - 36 GS, 235.1 IP, 15-10, 2.98 ERA
1997 - 33 GS, 240.0 IP, 14-7, 2.96 ERA
1998 - 33 GS, 229.1 IP, 20-6, 2.47 ERA
1999 - 35 GS, 234.0 IP, 14-11, 4.12 ERA
2000 - 35 GS, 241.0 IP, 21-9, 3.40 ERA

I'm not saying Pelfrey's going to BECOME the next Tom Glavine, but clearly writing him off so soon is way premature. If Glavine could take a full season's step back and still become a HOF pitcher, why can't Pelfrey suffer a similar setback and come back to be at least a Rick Reed-like solid pitcher for a five year span?

[EasilyFound]

why can't Pelfrey suffer a similar setback and come back to be at least a Rick Reed-like solid pitcher for a five year span?

You're setting the bar a little high, don't you think?

[Paulypal]

I dont hate Murphy at all. In fact I like him. He is smart at the plate, and from what you hear he works his ass off. Which is great and makes you root for a guy like that.

I think he is capable putting up OK numbers. I wont venture a guess. When some of you say "big contributor"...what does that mean? He doesnt strike out a lot which is good, but he has subpar power - especially for a firstbasemen-, no speed at all, and is a liability with the glove (although he wasnt as bad at first as he was left).

As mentioned in an above post - Minaya bet the season on him - Pelfrey, Ollie and Maine. I wouldnt have.

Again this is a case of fans watching a guy for six weeks of the 2008 season where he hit .313. The expectations were too high and the front office and the public relations machine made you think this was a diamond in the rough. I dont believe he is. I think he can be a serviceable player, but big contributor? I dont see it at all. He also was touted in 2008 as someone with a super sense of the strike zone. In 2009 he walked 38 times with a .313 OBP. Again, I feel he was overhyped by the organization once he made his showing in 2008. Magadan was a .288 hitter with a .390 OBP again with little power. Murphy will hit with more power, but if he becomes a Magadan it will be a big plus.

[JPS]

Murphy could be .280/15/70 or so. Even 20/80 isn't too far fetched, but not likely. Unless a big trade comes along, Murphy (and whoever he might platoon with) is keeping the spot warm for Ike Davis.

[robardin]

Howard johsonn promissed murfy w1lll hit 25 homeruns in 2010 who u gona beleve, intrnet poserz or da ho jo?!

Nuff sed

peace out

ps hes gonna fix david rights swingg to.

[NJMetfan4life]

Howard johsonn promissed murfy w1lll hit 25 homeruns in 2010 who u gona beleve, intrnet poserz or da ho jo?!

Nuff sed

peace out

ps hes gonna fix david rights swingg to.

Can he fix your grammar as well?

[Frogshiem77]

To avoid running the risk of all of us becoming amateur baseball scouts by hobby I figured I'd link to Murphy's minor league statistics:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players.../daniel-murphy

scroll to the bottom:

I also like Murphy, but I think it's important to remember as Pauly said, he's probably just keeping the spot warm for Ike Davis.

Things I like are that he is actively improving, his 2007 numbers were pedestrian considering he was at Port St. Lucie, but he posted even better numbers in 2008 over fewer AB's in Binghampton. People like to jump all over him, but you need to acknowledge that he isn't a super prospect with out of this world abilities. And more importantly he's only had 639 AB's!...if you think that is a lot than you are kidding yourself, through his first 800 AB's John Olerud was a .260 hitter.... to take a quote from Bull Durham:

"You know what the difference between hittin .250 and .300 is? 25 hits, 25 goddamn hits over 500 AB's..."


if anything Dave Magadan is an exception, anyway the point isn't really in making comparisons it's just to say that he hasn't had enough major league AB's for any of us to be able to say what kind of player he's going to turn out to be especially when a guy has demonstrated constant improvement over his career

[Paulypal]

You're setting the bar a little high, don't you think?

Actually he is setting the bar too high. Rick Reed was 78-49 from 1997-2002. Thats 13-8 over a 6 year period. If you tell me Pelfrey is going to do that I would sign up for it right now.

[robardin]

Actually he is setting the bar too high. Rick Reed was 78-49 from 1997-2002. Thats 13-8 over a 6 year period. If you tell me Pelfrey is going to do that I would sign up for it right now.

I loved Rick Reed as a Met, that's why I threw that name out there. Because Reed first came up to the majors in 1988, yet until he landed with the Mets he never stuck with a major league team for a full season, and pitched poorly enough following being a "scab pitcher" in 1994-95 that he didn't pitch in the majors at all in 1996. By the time he came into his own in 1997, he was 32 years old and considered a typical "desperation pickup" by the Mets. So running Pelfrey out of town after just 2 full years in the majors (with one of them pretty decent) at age 26 certainly seems premature, yeah?

Realistically there's no way a New York crowd would let Pelfrey struggle for up to TEN seasons to "find his groove". But asking for at least one or two years of patience when he's a Mets top draft pick from really not that long ago shouldn't be the reluctant, teeth-gritting experience some fans seem to find it.

[robardin]

I also like Murphy, but I think it's important to remember as Pauly said, he's probably just keeping the spot warm for Ike Davis.

In my fantasies he's starting at 2B within 2 years with a Bradon Phillips like profile offensively, while providing adequate if not GG quality defense.

Also in this fantasy is Tatoo standing next to me with a serving platter bearing a Shake Shack cheeseburger, fried calamari and Bayside Fries from Catch of the Day and an icy, tall glass of a Jim Palmer (50/50 lemonade and iced tea) with a generous splash of dark Barbados rum.

It goes on from there: Tatoo exits the scene with other people coming in, but this is a public forum so I'll let it go at that.

[ReyesOfHope]

22 hr, 90 rbi, .305 avg

[Mongoose]

Pelfrey's actually got great stuff. The problems are basically:

1) He was never taught a good off speed pitch. He was a touted first round pick, and was thrown to the wolves early when the Mets' decrepit starters of a few years ago couldn't hold down the fort. If he'd been brought along more slowly and given a good off speed pitch, he could mess with hitters timing much more than he's capable of now. As it stands, he basically throws a fast sinker and a fastball that sinks, which I can hardly tell apart. He's easy to time. He hardly gets strikeouts. It's a testament to how good his basic stuff is that it's not batting practice all the time when he pitches. Is it too late for him to learn a good off speed pitch?

2) How well his infield fields is a huge factor for a ground ball pitcher like Pelf. Last year Wright had problems, Reyes was gone, Castillo's range was hampered by his knees, and there was a platoon of non-first basemen at first.

A rebound year with the glove from Wright, Reyes coming back, and Murphy learning the position will probably make it look like Pelf's having a better season, even if he pitches exactly the same as last year.

Simple reversion to mean would portend for a better season from Pelfrey, as well.

Pelfrey's future also depends on his coaching from this point onward. If they can manage to teach him an effective off speed pitch, it will make a huge difference. I still think Pelfrey has top of the rotation stuff. The problem is he was ill served by the Mets organization, who brought him up prematurely as a cheap, easy way to fill a gap they had then, to the detriment of his future.

As for Murphy...

There's probably a good reason a guy nobody expected much from was able to surprise everyone and improve at every level. He's a heady, hardworking young guy and I look forward to seeing how he progresses. I think he'll surprise some doubters.

[EasilyFound]

Thats 13-8 over a 6 year period.

Actually, I didn't realize Reed's numbers were that good. But those aren't the numbers for a No. 2 starter. And I'd like a few more wins from my No. 3 starter. FWIW, I'm not looking to run Pelfrey out of town. The problem is the Mets are expecting too much from him. He should be a 4th or 5th starter at this stage of his career.

[milladrive]

Actually, I didn't realize Reed's numbers were that good. But those aren't the numbers for a No. 2 starter. And I'd like a few more wins from my No. 3 starter. FWIW, I'm not looking to run Pelfrey out of town. The problem is the Mets are expecting too much from him. He should be a 4th or 5th starter at this stage of his career.

I still hope he seeked some sort of psychiatric therapy during the offseason. Numbers for Pelf are only a portion of the story. Every pitch an event, it's no wonder his concentration struggles so early into his starts. Sometimes I think he'd feel much more comfortable and be more successful playing in a smaller marker without so much spotlight heat. jmho.

[Paulypal]

Actually, I didn't realize Reed's numbers were that good. But those aren't the numbers for a No. 2 starter. And I'd like a few more wins from my No. 3 starter. FWIW, I'm not looking to run Pelfrey out of town. The problem is the Mets are expecting too much from him. He should be a 4th or 5th starter at this stage of his career.

I agree. The number 2 should have more wins than 13. The problem with Pelfrey is 100% caused by Met management (so what else is new). They tried to make him a number 2 when he wasnt, especially mentally. Again, they took his half of a good season in 2008 made him the number two and managed like they always do...with their fingers crossed. I have never seen a team with so high a payroll manage on hope like this group does.

[Mongoose]

I still think Davis would be better off working on lowering his strikeouts and learning how to mash left handed pitching in Buffalo before harnessing his fuller potential at the big league level. Because of his hot start, though, there's no way they can send him back down now unless he has a horrible slump, in which case it'd be a blow to his psyche. I hope he's ready, but time will tell.

I think Murphy would have improved this year if, as stated in the original post, he wasn't jerked around. The way things are looking now his trade value will be as low as possible should the Mets look to deal him. I understand why the Mets felt they had to bring up Davis when they did, but he was in their future plans anyway. The timing of things wasn't good in the sense of more fully developing Davis and using/getting fair value for Murphy.

[ReyesOfHope]

I still think Pelfrey has top of the rotation stuff. The problem is he was ill served by the Mets organization, who brought him up prematurely as a cheap, easy way to fill a gap they had then, to the detriment of his future.

If I recall correctly...the Mets tried just about every option they could before resigning themselves to calling up Pelfrey. Also, I recall many Mets fans begging for the Mets to recall him.

How many times have you heard comments like, "Put the kid in there and let's see what he can do. I'd rather watch some hungry kid, than the stiffs they got out there now."