BBF Progressive HoF Election: 1986

[DoubleX]

Why would Cepeda's problems getting in apply to Jenkins?

Ace may have been referring to the problems both players had with drugs. I think that may have held Cepeda back for his first year or two, but now I think it's just the deeper statistical analysis which you mention. I'm not sure we've had a candidate perform quite like Cepeda has, in that he consistently comes just short of election and doesn't seem to experience any movement either positive or negative from one election to another.

I think what also might be holding Cepeda back is Norm Cash. The two are extremely similar (especially when tempering the impressiveness of Cash's flukish and corked-bat driven 1961 campaign), so it would be hard to elect Cepeda without also electing Cash, who for many might feel like isn't quite a Hall of Famer for whatever reason.

[Ace Venom]

Ace may have been referring to the problems both players had with drugs. I think that may have held Cepeda back for his first year or two, but now I think it's just the deeper statistical analysis which you mention. I'm not sure we've had a candidate perform quite like Cepeda has, in that he consistently comes just short of election and doesn't seem to experience any movement either positive or negative from one election to another.

Exactly. I'm talking more about the drug issues. About the only difference here is that Cepeda went to jail and Jenkins did not. Jenkins was also banned by Kuhn, though the ban was overturned a couple of weeks later. In reference to Cepeda's support, there are just enough people adamantly against his election to hold him out. This isn't a knock against them, but I think Cepeda supporters should be doing more to beat the drum for his inclusion. Sam Rice and Rabbit Maranville come to mind as candidates who had a difficult time getting elected on the regular ballot even though they were annually polling mid-60 to low-70 percent. Rice and Maranville supporters were simply unable to convince their detractors that they belonged. Rice and Maranville were eventually elected by the VC. There's also the fact that we don't regularly elect holdovers.

[DoubleX]

Exactly. I'm talking more about the drug issues. About the only difference here is that Cepeda went to jail and Jenkins did not. Jenkins was also banned by Kuhn, though the ban was overturned a couple of weeks later. In reference to Cepeda's support, there are just enough people adamantly against his election to hold him out. This isn't a knock against them, but I think Cepeda supporters should be doing more to beat the drum for his inclusion. Sam Rice and Rabbit Maranville come to mind as candidates who had a difficult time getting elected on the regular ballot even though they were annually polling mid-60 to low-70 percent. Rice and Maranville supporters were simply unable to convince their detractors that they belonged. Rice and Maranville were eventually elected by the VC. There's also the fact that we don't regularly elect holdovers.

Wtih respect to the drug issues, one big difference between Jenkins and Cepeda is that the drug issues could have more of an effect with Cepeda because he's more of a borderline candidate. I believe most will view Jenkins as well over the line, especially given our standards, so the drug issues, while perhaps a detriment to his candidacy, won't be enough to drag him under the line. Whereas with Cepeda, he's already around the border (either in or out) without even considering any negative assessment for his drug use. So for those grappling with whether Cepeda is over or under, the drug use could be that little thing held against him that makes the difference in bringing him under. If Cepeda had a stronger personal reputation, he'd probably be in by now.

[Ace Venom]

Whereas with Cepeda, he's already around the border (either in or out) without even considering any negative assessment for his drug use. So for those grappling with whether Cepeda is over or under, the drug use could be that little thing held against him that makes the difference in bringing him under. If Cepeda had a stronger personal reputation, he'd probably be in by now.

That once again brings to mind a candidate that lasted fifteen years on the ballot and languished on the VC ballot until 1970: Carl Mays. We practically waited until the guy was on his deathbed to elect him and that was just because he accidentally killed a guy.

[mwiggins]

Exactly. I'm talking more about the drug issues. About the only difference here is that Cepeda went to jail and Jenkins did not. Jenkins was also banned by Kuhn, though the ban was overturned a couple of weeks later. In reference to Cepeda's support, there are just enough people adamantly against his election to hold him out. This isn't a knock against them, but I think Cepeda supporters should be doing more to beat the drum for his inclusion. Sam Rice and Rabbit Maranville come to mind as candidates who had a difficult time getting elected on the regular ballot even though they were annually polling mid-60 to low-70 percent. Rice and Maranville supporters were simply unable to convince their detractors that they belonged. Rice and Maranville were eventually elected by the VC. There's also the fact that we don't regularly elect holdovers.

With only a week between elections, we don't get a lot of turnover during a 15 election "cycle", and there's not nearly as much time to "rethink" your votes as their is in real life. I think I could count on both hands the number of times I've actually switched on a candidate after the first election, and I'm sure that's not uncommon.

I guess I missed that there were people still not voting for Cepeda specifically because of his jail time/drug problems. I do think his drug issue will keep Jenkins from getting 100%, but I'd be shocked if he didn't make it within 3 elections.

[mwiggins]

That once again brings to mind a candidate that lasted fifteen years on the ballot and languished on the VC ballot until 1970: Carl Mays. We practically waited until the guy was on his deathbed to elect him and that was just because he accidentally killed a guy.

Did anybody actually not vote for Mays because of that pitch? I think the fact that he won just 208 games, pitched barely 3,000 innings in his career, and had an ERA+ (120) that wasn't that great when you factored in the level of defensive support that he received were the reasons he fell short for the handful of voters it took to keep him out.

That, and he was probably completely off the radar of the casual voters, which made it hard to elect him in the normal elections.

I was one of the 3 people who didn't vote for him in the '70 VC election, and the pitch that killed had nothing to do with it.

[b30b30]

Orlando Cepeda
Bobby Bonds
Norm Cash
Tony Oliva
Vada Pinson
Frank Howard
Rocky Colavito
Bill Mazeroski
Mike Marshall

[mwiggins]

With Sal Bando seemingly stalling out, here's a comparison of Bando to another modern 3B - first ballot Hall of Famer Ken Boyer.

Both players had careers of very similar lengths - 16 years and 8288 PA's for Sal vs. 15 years and 8268 for Ken.

Career Win Shares:
Boyer - 280
Bando - 283

Career WS/162:
Boyer - 22.3
Bando - 22.7

# of 30+ Win Share Seasons:
Boyer - 1
Bando - 2

Career WAR:
Boyer - 58.4
Bando - 60.6

Top 5 WAR Seasons:
Boyer - 7.8, 6.2, 6.2, 5.8, 5.6 (31.6)
Bando - 8.9, 7.3, 6.3, 6.2, 5.8 (34.5)

MVP Voting:
Boyer - Won 1964 MVP, 3 other Top-10 finishes, received votes in 8 seasons
Bando - 3 Top-5 finishes (2nd, 3rd, 4th), no other Top-10 finishes, received votes in 7 seasons

OPS+:
Boyer - 116
Bando - 119

Best 5 OPS+ Seasons:
Boyer - 144, 135, 130, 130, 124 (663)
Bando - 153, 150, 137, 135, 130 (705)

Gold Gloves:
Boyer - 5
Bando - 0

Career Total Zone Runs Saved Above Average:
Boyer - 70
Bando - 35


There doesn't seem to be much difference between the two of them, in terms of their qualifications. I would still vote Boyer in before I'd vote in Bando, but Boyer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, not a borderline selection who got in through the VC.

Obviously Bando is going to struggle to get voted in, as he's a peak candidate who happened to play his peak years in a very low offensive era in a strong pitchers park. Here's the seasonal averages for Bando's 1969-1974 peak years, adjusted to a 4.42 runs/game context (which is roughly the average runs/game for the AL in the 20th century).

Bando 1969-1974 Neutralized for 4.42 R/G: .292/.409/.490, 27 2B, 27 HR, 103 Runs, 111 RBI, 108 BB. He was also an above average defensive 3B over that time, and was the heart of a team that won 4 pennants and 3 World Series titles.

[PVNICK]

As far as Bando goes, he was the captain of that A's team that won 3 WS in a row and bracketed that with two divsion crowns. This team as a whole is one of the underappreciated if not out right forgotten dynasties. In some ways it is odd how and why some players get credit as being winners etc. yet others do not despite pretty similar credentials. Campy and Concepcion do not get bonus points either. Rant over.

[mwiggins]

As far as Bando goes, he was the captain of that A's team that won 3 WS in a row and bracketed that with two divsion crowns. This team as a whole is one of the underappreciated if not out right forgotten dynasties. In some ways it is odd how and why some players get credit as being winners etc. yet others do not despite pretty similar credentials. Campy and Concepcion do not get bonus points either. Rant over.

That A's team had a lot of guys who flamed out fairly early, and their offensive stars are underrated due to the environment they played in. Even their one deserving Hall of Famer, Reggie, is still underappreciated for how great he was during his Oakland years. Just the fact that he's most remembered as a one-dimensional player, as opposed to the 5 tool player he was during his years in Oakland tells you a lot.

[PVNICK]

Agreed especially on Reggie who is wierdly underrated as an A and O and overrated as a Yankee. As for Bando he also gets the double or triple whammy of being the best AL 3B (arguably) between Brett and Brooks Robinson and then Schmidt comes along at the same time. Finally the contemporaries he was probably better than like Nettles, Evans, Bell, et. al. went on the have longer careers and as such put up bigger countign #s.

[cbenson5]

1. Sal Bando
2. Norm Cash
3. Bill Freehan
4. Bill Mazeroski

[Fielding Marshall]

Sal Bando
Bobby Bonds
Clay Carroll
Orlando Cepeda
Rocky Colavito
Bill Freehan
Jerry Grote
John Hiller
Frank Howard
Bill Mazeroski
Stu Miller
Thurman Munson
Tony Oliva
Roy White
Jimmy Wynn

[Ace Venom]

This election is closed. We elected the former Detroit Tigers catcher Bill Freehan in his 6th year of eligibility.