Scott Rolen - can a big 2010 put him in?

[Matthew C.]

Oh yeah. you are both right - there is no way he will make it. I am only referring to his deservedness.

[willshad]

Rolen is interesting, as he seems to be in the 'middle ground'. He is clearly not as good as the top tier of third basemen, and yet he seems better than a lot of the third basemen who are right under the border...like Nettles, Evans, etc. His best comp in Ron Santo, but i think he is a little better, due to the fact that Santo had HUGE home field advantage throughout his career. Plus Rolen is one of the best fielding third basemen ever. if you think that Santo deserves the hall, then you really cannot say Rolen doesn't. A few injury seasons seemed to kill his chances, but right now he is probably the MVP of the league in 2010, and an MVP season would put him right on the map.

[Brad Harris]

Rolen's already deserving of election. He doesn't have to be the best third baseman not already in for that to be true. Whether that will ever be the perception of three-quarters of the electorate is different question altogether (as it is for so many deserving candidates.)

[Matthew C.]

You are right about his season so far - probably the position player MVP: 2nd in the NL in OPS as a GG 3B??? After Jiminez (if you chose to), he is right up there.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Rolen's already deserving of election. He doesn't have to be the best third baseman not already in for that to be true. Whether that will ever be the perception of three-quarters of the electorate is different question altogether (as it is for so many deserving candidates.)

There is a plethora of comments here that I can agree with. I can agree that Rolen isn't in the top tier of 3Bmen, but he's also ahead of a number of guys that get 3B HOF love here. He's had injury problems, but he's nowhere near as injury-riddled as his reputation in some quarters suggests. He's considered to be in decline, but he's at .698 OWP for this year, and last year wasn't bad at all for a prospective HOFer in his mid-thirties. He's been considered a pain in the rear at times, but that stuff seems to have faded after he left Philly (where he played for Larry Bowa).

What Brad says goes to the heart of the issue with Rolen's HOF chances. My gut says that as of now, Rolen will NOT make the HOF by the writers, deserving or not. I say this because if you look at what he's done lately, he's not made the All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, or done anything that would be consider a "star" accomplishment since 2006. Rolen fell off the pedastal after 2006; his 2007 and 2008 seasons were the seasons of a guy who looked like he was done.

That image has hurt Rolen, IMO, because the BBWAA seems to give an edge to strong finishers in HOF voting. What Rolen has going for him is that he's recaptured much of what he's lost, offensively in 2009 and 2010, but it's slow to be recognized. A big 2010 will go a long way toward re-establishing Rolen as a star in the mind of people, but there are some things that Rolen needs to do to REALLY help himself, HOF-wise. He NEEDS to make the All-Star team. I think this is important because he's not likely to win another Gold Glove, and his failure to win the GG since 2006, coupled with his back issues, have fueled a reputation that he isn't the defensive third baseman he used to be. A strong 2010 will cause Rolen to get credit for what he did in 2009, and will help him to erase the image of an Early Fader.

If Rolen stays at or near this level (or even at the level of 2009 over a full season) until age 38, he'll be a solid candidate who'll give the HOF a good run. If he doesn't; if this is his last good year, he won't make the HOF by the BBWAA. He doesn't have the perception of being a GREAT player (even though he was great at his best) and he needs a strong finish to his career to change that perception enough to put him over the top of the BBWAA voting.

[Ubiquitous]

Rolen put up a 102 ops+ last year for the Reds and Rolen has missed a lot of time because of injuries. He missed half a season in 19990-2000. 2004-2006 he basically missed a full season and then from 2007 to 2009 he missed about a third of the season in each season. So far UZR puts him at below average defensively this year.

[Matthew C.]

Rolen put up a 102 ops+ last year for the Reds and Rolen has missed a lot of time because of injuries. He missed half a season in 19990-2000. 2004-2006 he basically missed a full season and then from 2007 to 2009 he missed about a third of the season in each season. So far UZR puts him at below average defensively this year.

Yeah, to say that he hasn't missed a lot of time due to injury is not true. I noticed today that UZR and TZ have Rolen below average defensively (barely). I wonder how +/- will see him. It will be interesting to see where he ends the season.

[Ubiquitous]

I added some stuff but then lost it because I hit the wrong button but in short if you go by WAR Rolen comes up well short when comparing him to other third basemen both in the hall and out of it in terms of excellent seasons. He has something like 1 MVP like season, 4 all-star like seasons, and the rest are starter and reserve like seasons for him.

[Matthew C.]

I added some stuff but then lost it because I hit the wrong button but in short if you go by WAR Rolen comes up well short when comparing him to other third basemen both in the hall and out of it in terms of excellent seasons. He has something like 1 MVP like season, 3 all-star like seasons, and the rest are starter and reserve like seasons for him.

He is lighter on peak seasons that is ideal, but he will end his career with over 70 WAR in a quality era. Enough for me, as a career value leaning guy. The number of 3B with 70 or more career WAR can be counted on one hand. I can see his exclusion if one is a peak-focused person.

[dominik]

I think a problem of him is that he has not that big numbers. HOF likes power hitters who get 500 HRs and also average hitters who get 3000 hits. but when you are kind of a tweener who hits 300 HRs and 2000 hits you are often overlooked because you fit neither category.

Kinda like edgar martinez. fantastic hitter with a 147 OPS (matching Arods and schmidts career OPS) but only 2200 hits and 309 HRs. so he fits neither category no real slugger and no real hit monster. just a great alround hitter who walked a ton.
Will have a hard time getting recognized.

[dgarza]

He has something like 1 MVP like season, 3 all-star like seasons, and the rest are starter and reserve like seasons for him.

I think you're underselling him here if you'll only going by WAR, which would suggest 1 MVP like season and 3 other (4 total?) All Star like seasons.

While OPS+ suggests that Rolen has had only 1 MVP like season, 2004 (of course, 2010 is sheping up just as well.), OPS+ suggests that I see 8 All Star like seasons, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006. 2010 is shaping up to be #9.

WARP suggests 3 (possibly 5) "HOF like" seasons, 2002, 2003, 2004 (1998, 2001).
WARP suggests 8 All Star like seasons, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006.
Then we sill have 2010.

Win Shares also suggest 1998 & 2004 to be MVP type seasons.
And 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 to be All Star type seasons.

Looking at the big picture, Rolen clearly have 1 MVP type season, but I don't think it's clear that it was clearly only that 1 season. He might have had 2.
The bigger oversight is, I think, the recognition of his very good years, his All Star type years. He clearly had more than the 3 you are claiming. The exact number is debatable, but 5 (or 6) All Star years should be a conservative guess. Liberal arguements could easily take that up to 8.

[Ubiquitous]

He is lighter on peak seasons that is ideal, but he will end his career with over 70 WAR in a quality era. Enough for me, as a career value leaning guy. The number of 3B with 70 or more career WAR can be counted on one hand. I can see his exclusion if one is a peak-focused person.

It is not even peak focused. Besides the MVP season he has 3 all-star seasons (this season is projecting to be either high end starter or low end all star) and that is it. Basically WAR is stating that Scott Rolen was a good starter through out his career. I just don't think you reward people for being good your reward them for being great.

[brett]

A big 2010 would be enough to push him over my HOF line, but I don't think it'll be enough for the real HOF to recognize him for a while.

This is how I feel. Third basemen tend to have shorter careers and injuries. There may also be some perception that there is just less talent there-that if they were really good they'd be shortstops.

I think third base defense is underappreciated, because its hard to hide a really bad defensive third basemen-they can even force it to you with bunts.


Anyway, Rolen is probably up to about 84th in career WAR as of today just passing Al Simmons and Frank Baker. He tops Hack, Darrell Evans, Nettles, Bell, Baker, Groh, Ventur...

In fact in WAR he is only behind:

Schmidt
Mathews
Boggs
Brett
Jones
Brooks Robinson
Ron Santo

among primary third basemen!

He still probably will pass Santo and may top Brooks in WAR.

I don't totally trust WAR on defense. They have Boggs almost at +105 defensive runs at third (almost even with Schmidt) and Mathews as +32, and Chipper at only -28.

Other metrics which account for other factors put Boggs at dead average (0), Mathews at about -60 or so and Jones in the -120 or more range.

[brett]

He is lighter on peak seasons that is ideal, but he will end his career with over 70 WAR in a quality era. Enough for me, as a career value leaning guy. The number of 3B with 70 or more career WAR can be counted on one hand. I can see his exclusion if one is a peak-focused person.

Its odd how a guy with a fairly short career, and without a lot of great seasons can rack up 64 WAR.

[brett]

Oh yeah. you are both right - there is no way he will make it. I am only referring to his deservedness.

2000 hits, 500 doubles, 300 home runs and 7 gold gloves used to look like a hall of famer. (maybe in the 80s, though I think there are about 5 times more 300 home run men now).

[Ubiquitous]

I think you're underselling him here if you'll only going by WAR, which would suggest 1 MVP like season and 3 other (4 total?) All Star like seasons.

While OPS+ suggests that Rolen has had only 1 MVP like season, 2004 (of course, 2010 is sheping up just as well.), OPS+ suggests that I see 8 All Star like seasons, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006. 2010 is shaping up to be #9.

WARP suggests 3 (possibly 5) "HOF like" seasons, 2002, 2003, 2004 (1998, 2001).
WARP suggests 8 All Star like seasons, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006.
Then we sill have 2010.

Win Shares also suggest 1998 & 2004 to be MVP type seasons.
And 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 to be All Star type seasons.

Looking at the big picture, Rolen clearly have 1 MVP type season, but I don't think it's clear that it was clearly only that 1 season. He might have had 2.
The bigger oversight is, I think, the recognition of his very good years, his All Star type years. He clearly had more than the 3 you are claiming. The exact number is debatable, but 5 (or 6) All Star years should be a conservative guess. Liberal arguements could easily take that up to 8.

WARP uses a different scale than WAR the two are not really compatible for a straight comparison based on WAR's standards. According to WARP standards Rolen had no MVP seasons, 4 all star seasons, 3 good starter seasons, and pretty much the rest being regular player seasons.

As for Win Shares if we go by the standard that above 20 is an all star and above 30 is an MVP then Rolen gets 2 MVP seasons and 5 all star seasons. But that is pre-loss share version of WS and of course with a win shares that has a wonky defensive component to it.

[dgarza]

It is not even peak focused. Besides the MVP season he has 3 all-star seasons (this season is projecting to be either high end starter or low end all star) and that is it.

Are you counting 2002? BBRef does not total 2002 up so I'm wondering if you missed it???

[dgarza]

Since we're all on this WAR kick...

Scott Rolen is only 1 of 16 players to have 5 3B 5.0 WAR seasons.

If he does well enough this season, he could be 1 of 9 players to have 6 3B 5.0 WAR seasons.

[Ubiquitous]

Are you counting 2002? BBRef does not total 2002 up so I'm wondering if you missed it???

Yep, I missed it. I hit hide partial season but apparently it doesn't do that for all fields. so it is 1 MVP season and 4 all-star like seasons for him.

[dgarza]

Yep, I missed it. I hit hide partial season but apparently it doesn't do that for all fields.

It took me awhile to fingure out that too. I hope that's just a temp. oversight. I don't know how many time I forgot to look for split seasons.

so it is 1 MVP season and 4 all-star like seasons for him.

Are you counting the 1 MVP season as one of the 4 AS seasons?

[Ubiquitous]

Since we're all on this WAR kick...

Scott Rolen is only 1 of 16 players to have 5 3B 5.0 WAR seasons.

If he does well enough this season, he could be 1 of 9 players to have 6 3B 5.0 WAR seasons.

The difference being that the other players were way over 5 WAR while Rolen will be at the low end at just the bare minimum for the cutoff.

Boggs: 8 seasons over 5 with 5.8 being the lowest
Schmidt: 14 seasons over 5, Schmidt doesn't drop into the 5's until the end of his career.
Ron Santo: 8 seasons, gets a 5.1 at 32 and then diabetes really kicks in.
Eddie Mathews: 11 seasons with only one season in the 5's.
George Brett: 9 seasons
Chipper Jones: 8 seasons
Sal Bando: 7 seasons and is not even close to getting into the Hall.
Ken Boyer: 7 seasons and again is not even close to getting into the hall.

So if Rolen does get to 5 this season he'll have 6 seasons at 5 or better and still be a season shy of two players that have no chance of getting into the hall.

[Matthew C.]

Over on "The Book", Sean Smith himself, Tango, MGL, and others are talking about the possibility that TZ severely underrates Rolen and other infielders due to various hit location biases, etc. Interesting read:


http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...ties_to_field/

[dgarza]

WARP uses a different scale than WAR the two are not really compatible for a straight comparison based on WAR's standards. According to WARP standards Rolen had no MVP seasons, 4 all star seasons, 3 good starter seasons, and pretty much the rest being regular player seasons.

I'm not comapring WARP and WAR straight up. I'm look at different meansures (WARP, WS, OPS+, WAR [all different]) and then using my own cutoff point (for each measure) for what is an MVP/"HOF" or All Star type season. WARP and WAR do not define MVP or All Star seasons. they merely suggest such levels. It is us who define what that means and where the cut off is. So your cut off must be a little higher than mine.

For me, a player does not have an All Time Historic Great season to still have an MVP type season. He doesn't even have to have clearly the best measure in any specific season to have an MVP type season. A player could have an MVP type season even if he's just 4th best player. An MVP type season is one in which that player could reasonably be mistaken for THEE MVP in an average league with no freakishly exceptional performance from other players.

Same with what I call an All Star season. An All Star season in simply a season in which that player could reasonably make the AS squad. He doesn't have to start. He can be a bench AS. But he's not a mistake AS either. Let's face it, starter ASs are often MVP season players anyway (or should be).

[dgarza]

So if Rolen does get to 5 this season he'll have 6 seasons at 5 or better and still be a season shy of two players that have no chance of getting into the hall.

While we both agree that Rolen's chances are low with the voters, I'm not sure you've directly stated what your measure of Rolen is. Or have you and I've just missed it?

[Ubiquitous]

I'm not comapring WARP and WAR straight up. I'm look at different meansures (WARP, WS, OPS+, WAR [all different]) and then using my own cutoff point (for each measure) for what is an MVP/"HOF" or All Star type season. WARP and WAR do not define MVP or All Star seasons. they merely suggest such levels. It is us who define what that means and where the cut off is. So your cut off must be a little higher than mine.

Well, "merely suggests them" belies the point that it is the people coming up with these stats and having full access to all the data have come to that conclusion about the numbers. I'd say their perspective on what the numbers mean are a little better than ours.

For me, a player does not have an All Time Historic Great season to still have an MVP type season. He doesn't even have to have clearly the best measure in any specific season to have an MVP type season. A player could have an MVP type season even if he's just 4th best player. An MVP type season is one in which that player could reasonably be mistaken for THEE MVP in an average league with no freakishly exceptional performance from other players.

Same with what I call an All Star season. An All Star season in simply a season in which that player could reasonably make the AS squad. He doesn't have to start. He can be a bench AS. But he's not a mistake AS either. Let's face it, starter ASs are often MVP season players anyway (or should be).

No metric out there has the cutoff for MVP like season at all time historic great season. In fact the cutoff for MVP like season is usually a pretty ordinary season for great players. Okay, not ordinary for great players but the great players do hit the MVP level a lot and with a lot of seasons that nobody thinks are all time great seasons.