PCA Request Line

[SABR Matt]

Originally Posted by brett

2 quick questions about methodology Matt.

1) Do you take into account that a pitcher does not pitch equally against each team opponent and at home and away, or do you just have a single TEAM run environment for DNRA+

2) How do you calculate career DNRA+? Do you take the pitchers total career DNRA divided by his total environment or do you take the weighted average of each season's relative DNRA?

for a simple example here, lets say column 1 is the pitcher's DNRA and column 2 is the league and column 3 is the relative DNRA. Assume the same number of innings each year.

Season 1: 2 4 0.500
Season 2: 1 3 0.333
Season 3: 2 3 0.667
Season 4: 9 8 1.125
Season 5: 1 2 0.500

The average of column 1 is 3. The average of column 2 is 4.

The relative ERA would be 0.750 by taking the average of each column separately but:

The average of the relative ERA's is 0.625 which I believe to be more appropriate. Using method one to average, Season 4 gets weighted more than all the other seasons combined because the denomonator is 8.

The first question: I do not account for strenght of opponents faced in the original DNRA, however, that is in the plans for the new version. Not that that does you much good right now. The old system used seasonal summaries of the PBP database and PCA was going to adjust the total expected run scoring against with the F/S Matrix run value for the opposing teams for each starting pitcher...I am probably going to shift to a system which totals up a pitcher's plate appearances against each team, figures out the ratios each team's offense produced (per PA) in the relevant statistics and essentially calculates a DNRA for each pitcher vs. team match-up. But that's a ways off still.

The second question: to get career DNRA+ is use the player's original defense neutral runs allowed and his original expected runs allowed...sum them all up and recalculate the + version on the career totals. That's, I believe the best way to do it.

[brett]

Originally Posted by SABR Matt

The second question: to get career DNRA+ is use the player's original defense neutral runs allowed and his original expected runs allowed...sum them all up and recalculate the + version on the career totals. That's, I believe the best way to do it.

My only point with this is that the higher run environment seasons will "accidentally" get weighted more.

Just compare 2 hypotheticals.

Hypothetical #1: 2 seasons.
Year 1:
Innings 200
Defense neutral runs allowed: 80
Expected: 100

Year 2:
Innings 200
Defense neutral runs allowed: 120
Expected: 100

This guy has given up 200 neutralized runs out of 200 expected for a DNRA+ of 100

Hypothetical #2
Year 1:
Innings 200
Defense neutral runs allowed: 80
Expected: 100

Year 2
IP: 200
Defense neutral runs allowed: 180
Expected: 150 (basically the run environment was 50% higher for whatever reason).

Now you get 260 defense neutral runs allowed and 250 expected. The DNRA+ is now 96 and the only reason is that the higher run environment of Year 2 makes it get weighted 3/2 as much as season 1.

The net practical result is that when a player has his best years in a higher run setting, they count more and he gets overrated. When he has his worst in a higher run setting, they count more and he gets underrated.

The other way to do it is take the relative ERA's of 0.8 and 1.2 for seasons 1 and 2 and weight them by innings (or equivalent innings) and then divide. This counts seasons of all run setting equally.

(1.2 x 200+0.8x 200)/200

[SABR Matt]

Huh.

That's actually a great point.

I hadn't thought of that...but you're correct. The way to account for that is to use the odds ratio method and set everyone's run environments to the same score. That's a relatively quick fix...so let me do that for my DIPItchers table and post new career figures.

[BigRon]

I'm no mathematician, but I think you guys are entering the world of harmonic means versus arithmetic means, and things like that. As Brett implied, you've got to be very careful when doing these things.

I think the old fuel economy example is illustrative. You own 2 cars. Car A gets 30 miles per gallon (MPG) and car B gets 20 MPG. You drive each 1000 miles per month. Your average fuel economy is 25 MPG, right? No, it's 24.0 MPG. Car A uses 33.3 gallons to travel 1000 miles, car B uses 50 gallons. Together, they consume 83.3 gallons to travel 2000 miles= 24.0 MPG.

To get an average of 25.0 MPG, Car A (which consumes less, or under-consumes) must travel 1500 miles while car B travels 1000 miles. Then, car A will use 50 gallons, car B will use 50 gallons, and the combined distance travelled with 100 gallons of fuel will be 2500 miles= 25.0 MPG.

There are lots of related things like looking at inverses incorectly, too. As I said, I'm not a math guy and don't even know many of the terms, but it is really easy to reach the wrong answer/conclusion if you don't follow the correct logic.

[SABR Matt]

The solution, as I said before, is to take every player's season and adjust it so that it appears they all played with the same run-scoring context. The way to do it is by assuming their relative production rates are constant in any environment (if you allow 10% more runs than you should in a 5 R/G league - resulting in a 5.50 DNRA...you're still going to allow 10% more runs than you should in a 4 R/G league, resulting in a 4.40 DNRA).

I reduced all pitching seasons to a 4.75 R/G context and recalculated my career figures for total neutral runs allowed and expected runs allowed. Here is the new DNRA+ leaderboard for pitchers with at least 3000 defense independent outs:

First	Last    	Outs	XRA	NRA	DNRA+	Marker
Pedro	Martinez	6893	1212.66	781.23	155.2	197.8
Roger	Clemens 	13666	2404.20	1648.92	145.8	309.4
Randy	Johnson 	10075	1772.45	1272.40	139.3	225.7
Sandy	Koufax  	6684	1175.89	888.58	132.3	115.9
Greg	Maddux  	12525	2203.47	1666.32	132.2	247.6
Mike	Mussina 	8394	1476.72	1124.43	131.3	141.9
Kevin	Brown   	9036	1589.67	1231.38	129.1	157.5
Curt	Schilling	8183	1439.60	1122.58	128.2	134.7
Bruce	Sutter  	3109	546.95	431.75	126.7	57.1
Kent	Tekulve 	4327	761.23	601.36	126.6	68.4
Hoyt	Wilhelm 	4853	853.77	676.96	126.1	73.0
Lee	Smith   	3892	684.70	544.04	125.9	61.1
Andy	Pettitte	5737	1009.29	807.82	124.9	84.3
Tim	Hudson  	3846	676.61	542.24	124.8	56.4
Kerry	Wood    	3371	593.05	477.00	124.3	47.7
John	Smoltz  	8228	1447.52	1170.41	123.7	122.0
Stu	Miller  	3778	664.65	538.10	123.5	55.7
Rich	Gossage 	5390	948.24	771.59	122.9	94.5
Dan	Quisenberry	3091	543.79	445.07	122.2	46.2
Bret	Saberhagen	7314	1286.72	1054.26	122.0	100.4
Nolan	Ryan    	16256	2859.85	2350.79	121.7	217.2
J.R.	Richard 	4826	849.02	700.52	121.2	65.5
Tom	Seaver  	14283	2512.75	2082.87	120.6	187.1
Barry	Zito    	3577	629.29	523.74	120.2	49.1
Mark	Buehrle 	3611	635.27	528.87	120.1	45.2
Sam	McDowell	7560	1330.00	1108.84	119.9	102.3
Tom	Gordon  	5914	1040.43	870.54	119.5	87.8
Bartolo	Colon   	4859	854.82	715.43	119.5	62.8
Dave	Stieb   	8650	1521.76	1276.23	119.2	109.5
Sid	Fernandez	5613	987.47	832.36	118.6	68.6
Ron	Guidry  	7124	1253.30	1056.74	118.6	91.9
Juan	Marichal	10576	1860.59	1569.13	118.6	134.1
Doug	Jones   	3059	538.16	454.02	118.5	47.6
Alej.	Pena    	3210	564.72	478.44	118.0	41.3
Jesse	Orosco  	3777	664.47	566.15	117.4	50.2
Andy	Messersmith	6643	1168.68	995.78	117.4	76.3
John	Franco  	3602	633.69	539.93	117.4	46.1
Derek	Lowe    	3616	636.15	542.33	117.3	46.6
Dwight	Gooden  	8118	1428.17	1217.67	117.3	98.9
Dean	Chance  	6425	1130.32	964.77	117.2	76.3
Mike	Jackson 	3323	584.60	499.13	117.1	48.4
Bob	Gibson  	11601	2040.92	1744.82	117.0	138.5
John	Hiller  	3722	654.80	560.03	116.9	48.8
Kevin	Appier  	7122	1252.94	1072.15	116.9	91.8
Gary	Lavelle 	3249	571.58	489.45	116.8	40.5
Whitey	Ford    	6420	1129.44	967.29	116.8	71.9
Gaylord	Perry   	16021	2818.51	2415.48	116.7	186.1
Bob	Stanley  	5151	906.19	777.22	116.6	60.4
Dave	Righetti	4205	739.77	634.68	116.6	55.5
Rollie	Fingers  	5029	884.73	759.23	116.5	63.8
Larry	Andersen	3003	528.31	453.78	116.4	41.6
Dick	Hall    	3252	572.11	491.98	116.3	40.6
Greg	Minton  	3391	596.56	513.01	116.3	47.5
Dan	Plesac  	3083	542.38	466.49	116.3	38.8
Jimmy	Key     	7714	1357.09	1168.19	116.2	89.3
Camilo	Pascual 	7545	1327.36	1143.84	116.0	90.9
David	Cone    	8148	1433.44	1239.56	115.6	97.2
Don	Drysdale	9994	1758.20	1525.62	115.2	107.5
Bert	Blyleven	14916	2624.11	2281.60	115.0	166.6
Sparky	Lyle    	4136	727.63	633.65	114.8	47.2
Jose	Rijo    	5655	994.86	866.62	114.8	68.5
Tug	McGraw  	4486	789.20	688.75	114.6	57.8
Dennis	Eckersley	9867	1735.86	1518.29	114.3	118.5
Teddy	Higuera 	4120	724.81	634.23	114.3	49.6
Juan	Guzman  	3892	684.70	599.27	114.3	46.4
Orel	Hershiser	8888	1563.63	1368.54	114.3	96.6
Jim	Maloney 	5525	971.99	854.76	113.7	61.0
Don	Wilson  	5186	912.35	803.54	113.5	51.4
Tom	Glavine 	11132	1958.41	1726.68	113.4	119.2
Ben	McDonald	3832	674.15	595.21	113.3	39.6
Fergie	Jenkins  	13506	2376.06	2099.60	113.2	135.9
Jon	Matlack 	7111	1251.01	1107.05	113.0	73.2
Larry	Jackson 	8983	1580.34	1399.16	112.9	88.4
Don	McMahon 	3883	683.12	605.68	112.8	47.8
Chuck	Finley  	8934	1571.72	1396.31	112.6	89.3
Sam	Jones   	3526	620.31	551.25	112.5	34.3
Willie	Hernandez	3120	548.89	489.42	112.2	38.0
Luis	Tiant   	10478	1843.35	1646.81	111.9	105.1
David	Wells   	8934	1571.72	1404.35	111.9	88.7
Steve	Rogers  	8449	1486.40	1328.15	111.9	83.8
Mark	Langston	8732	1536.19	1373.38	111.9	88.0
Clay	Carroll 	3927	690.86	619.77	111.5	41.0
Gene	Garber  	4516	794.48	712.83	111.5	51.4
Steve	Carlton 	15702	2762.39	2478.78	111.4	161.4
Roger	McDowell	3155	555.05	498.11	111.4	31.4
Kenny	Rogers  	8093	1423.77	1279.11	111.3	80.7
Bill	Hands   	5888	1035.85	931.45	111.2	55.2
Rick	Reuschel	10726	1886.98	1701.42	110.9	105.8
Hank	Aguirre 	3909	687.69	620.46	110.8	41.7
Jim	Palmer  	11620	2044.26	1845.97	110.7	108.2
Terry	Forster 	3308	581.96	526.22	110.6	34.0
Bill	Swift   	4803	844.97	764.64	110.5	50.0
Gary	Nolan   	4996	878.93	795.56	110.5	44.9
Don	Mossi   	3882	682.94	618.64	110.4	34.6
Jim	Bunning 	10911	1919.53	1739.60	110.3	103.7
Wilson	Alvarez 	4723	830.90	753.33	110.3	46.7
Al	Leiter  	6523	1147.56	1040.81	110.3	64.3
Jeff	Fassero 	5620	988.70	898.77	110.0	56.8
Ron	Perranoski	3502	616.09	560.15	110.0	37.1
Don	Aase    	3345	588.47	535.21	110.0	32.2
Greg	Harris  	4433	779.88	710.12	109.8	46.7
Mark	Mulder  	3561	626.47	570.67	109.8	33.4
John	Tudor   	5342	939.80	857.95	109.5	50.3
Jim	O'Toole 	4854	853.94	779.86	109.5	45.1
Matt	Clement 	3523	619.79	566.89	109.3	33.8
Javier	Vazquez 	4485	789.03	721.95	109.3	42.2
Warren	Spahn   	6587	1158.82	1060.91	109.2	57.8
Billy	O'Dell  	5316	935.22	856.73	109.2	47.0
Mel	Stottlemyre	7928	1394.74	1279.45	109.0	66.7
Alex	Fernandez	4797	843.92	774.27	109.0	42.9
Sonny	Siebert  	6534	1149.50	1054.96	109.0	58.2
Tommy	John    	14093	2479.32	2275.88	108.9	126.0
Chan Ho	Park    	4264	750.15	688.66	108.9	38.5
Chris	Bosio   	5140	904.26	830.98	108.8	44.6
Vida	Blue    	9963	1752.75	1611.28	108.8	96.1
Frank	Viola   	8535	1501.53	1382.26	108.6	77.9
Jason	Schmidt 	4573	804.51	741.26	108.5	44.8
Jeff	Reardon 	3368	592.52	546.00	108.5	30.7
Mario	Soto    	5184	912.00	841.33	108.4	48.3
Don	Sutton  	15676	2757.81	2544.26	108.4	131.5
Wilbur	Wood    	8088	1422.89	1313.87	108.3	71.5
Don	Gullett 	4081	717.95	663.74	108.2	33.3
Len	Barker  	4024	707.93	655.68	108.0	36.3
Larry	Dierker 	6945	1221.81	1131.91	107.9	60.7
Rudy	May     	7795	1371.34	1271.19	107.9	69.1
Jim	Brewer  	3067	539.56	500.49	107.8	33.0
John	Denny   	6488	1141.41	1058.79	107.8	59.2
Jon	Lieber  	5130	902.50	838.32	107.7	41.3
Jeff	Russell 	3327	585.31	543.81	107.6	33.3
Zane	Smith   	5744	1010.52	939.87	107.5	47.7
Ken	Forsch  	6285	1105.69	1028.41	107.5	51.8
Ron	Reed    	7345	1292.18	1202.66	107.4	60.9
Rick	Aguilera	3651	642.31	597.84	107.4	33.4
Dave	Rozema  	3287	578.27	539.15	107.3	26.0
John	Candelaria	7528	1324.37	1234.93	107.2	62.5
Brad	Radke   	6158	1083.35	1010.31	107.2	48.0
Atlee	Hammaker	3246	571.06	533.43	107.1	27.9
Mike	Witt    	6278	1104.46	1032.12	107.0	52.2
Eric	Plunk   	3244	570.70	533.38	107.0	31.5
Pascual	Perez   	3718	654.09	611.46	107.0	35.8
Steve	Bedrosian	3588	631.22	590.42	106.9	30.4
Mike	Boddicker	6379	1122.23	1049.70	106.9	52.1
Frank	Lary    	4906	863.09	807.49	106.9	40.2
Bob	Veale   	5336	938.74	880.01	106.7	45.0
Bob	Ojeda   	5710	1004.54	941.98	106.6	48.8
Jerry	Koosman  	11437	2012.06	1887.16	106.6	88.6
Randy	Jones   	5786	1017.91	955.27	106.6	49.5
Burt	Hooton  	7936	1396.15	1310.64	106.5	64.1
Phil	Niekro  	16148	2840.85	2668.06	106.5	126.2
Bill	Campbell	3659	643.71	604.65	106.5	30.1
Britt	Burns   	3255	572.64	538.30	106.4	25.2
Bob	Miller  	4650	818.06	769.10	106.4	42.2
Matt	Morris  	4060	714.26	671.53	106.4	31.7
Tim	Belcher 	6947	1222.16	1150.11	106.3	52.8
Mickey	Lolich  	10986	1932.72	1819.30	106.2	82.1
Ramon	Martinez	5637	991.69	933.84	106.2	44.4
Jose	DeLeon  	5671	997.68	939.61	106.2	45.5
Tom	Candiotti	8026	1411.98	1330.22	106.1	60.1
Mike	Cuellar 	8214	1445.06	1362.49	106.1	71.0
Billy	Pierce  	4196	738.19	696.13	106.0	30.5
Freddy	Garcia   	3606	634.39	598.34	106.0	27.3
Tom	Burgmeier	3714	653.39	616.66	106.0	36.1
Mike	Marshall	4061	714.44	674.60	105.9	35.0
Bill	Singer  	6519	1146.86	1083.27	105.9	50.4
Erik	Hanson  	4631	814.71	770.22	105.8	37.3
Lindy	McDaniel	5970	1050.28	994.36	105.6	52.3
Frank	Tanana  	12610	2218.43	2100.93	105.6	96.3
Chris	Carpenter	3403	598.68	567.25	105.5	26.8
Dave	LaRoche 	3111	547.31	518.67	105.5	27.3
Bill	Monbouquette	5947	1046.23	993.34	105.3	42.6
Doug	Drabek  	7584	1334.22	1266.78	105.3	56.6
Ralph	Terry   	5386	947.54	900.83	105.2	40.5
Pat	Hentgen 	5626	989.76	941.17	105.2	45.6
Joe	Horlen  	5968	1049.93	1000.56	104.9	44.8
Mark	Gubicza 	6646	1169.20	1114.49	104.9	48.7
Geoff	Zahn    	5520	971.11	926.56	104.8	41.8
Rick	Honeycutt	6510	1145.28	1093.03	104.8	52.8
John	Smiley  	5672	997.85	953.00	104.7	41.1
Jim	Perry   	9870	1736.39	1658.57	104.7	71.3
Jack	Morris  	11408	2006.96	1917.67	104.7	79.7
Cory	Lidle   	3436	604.48	578.03	104.6	25.2
Ed	Halicki 	3233	568.77	544.35	104.5	23.9
Jack	Kralick 	3652	642.48	615.03	104.5	27.1
Turk	Farrell 	5085	894.58	856.76	104.4	42.9
Pat	Jarvis  	3596	632.63	606.39	104.3	28.8
Bob	Friend  	6734	1184.69	1136.43	104.2	46.5
Jack	Sanford 	6154	1082.65	1038.69	104.2	42.3
Milt	Pappas  	9422	1657.57	1590.52	104.2	65.7
Greg	Swindell	6517	1146.51	1100.64	104.2	48.2
Jose	Guzman  	3692	649.52	623.97	104.1	25.3
Charles	Nagy    	5278	928.54	892.33	104.1	44.0
Stan	Williams	5306	933.46	897.12	104.1	36.5
Jack	McDowell	5534	973.57	937.52	103.8	38.5
Ken	Johnson 	4966	873.65	841.42	103.8	35.3
Bryn	Smith   	5352	941.56	906.86	103.8	37.4
Bob	Welch   	9245	1626.44	1567.04	103.8	64.5
Jim	Gott    	3371	593.05	571.47	103.8	23.7
Jeff	Weaver  	3688	648.81	625.25	103.8	24.8
Ray	Herbert 	4691	825.27	796.00	103.7	31.9
Pete	Richert 	3480	612.22	590.62	103.7	25.4
Bruce	Hurst   	7302	1284.61	1239.66	103.6	51.3
Kevin	Tapani  	6376	1121.70	1082.58	103.6	42.0
Steve	Barber  	5968	1049.93	1013.39	103.6	44.1
Jim	Abbott  	4723	830.90	802.84	103.5	32.7
Tim	Wakefield	6520	1147.04	1108.45	103.5	46.7
Shane	Reynolds	4693	825.62	798.13	103.4	36.3
Jim	Beattie 	3459	608.53	589.04	103.3	27.6
Kevin	Millwood	3951	695.08	672.91	103.3	25.0
Al	Downing 	6750	1187.50	1150.14	103.2	47.3
John	Thomson 	3362	591.46	573.22	103.2	22.4
Jarrod	Washburn	3236	569.30	551.97	103.1	20.1
Harvey	Haddix  	3608	634.74	616.13	103.0	25.1
Danny	Darwin  	9019	1586.68	1540.88	103.0	65.2
Jim	Barr    	6217	1093.73	1062.25	103.0	39.7
Dick	Donovan 	4541	798.88	776.10	102.9	30.8
Steve	Busby   	3176	558.74	543.21	102.9	22.4
Rick	Reed    	4154	730.80	712.41	102.6	29.3
Earl	Wilson  	6254	1100.24	1073.46	102.5	38.5
Dave	Dravecky	3116	548.19	535.05	102.5	18.5
Dennis	Martinez	11939	2100.38	2050.28	102.4	85.4
Dave	Goltz   	6123	1077.19	1051.64	102.4	40.8
Dennis	Lamp    	5489	965.66	942.93	102.4	38.9
La Marr	Hoyt    	3909	687.69	671.64	102.4	26.7
Fritz	Peterson	6594	1160.06	1133.29	102.4	43.4
Andy	Benes   	6904	1214.59	1186.73	102.3	45.3
Ray	Culp    	5786	1017.91	995.35	102.3	39.4
Jamie	Moyer   	8699	1530.38	1496.48	102.3	61.2
Chris	Short   	6958	1224.09	1197.16	102.2	50.1
Ismael	Valdez  	4868	856.41	838.30	102.2	36.2
Fernan.	Valenzuela	8763	1541.64	1509.26	102.1	66.7
Jerry	Reuss   	10994	1934.13	1894.21	102.1	72.2
David	Palmer  	3275	576.16	564.27	102.1	20.2
Early	Wynn    	3967	697.90	683.73	102.1	23.6
Steve	Avery   	4384	771.26	756.27	102.0	27.6
Kirk	McCaskill	5174	910.24	892.55	102.0	33.6
Dave	Boswell 	3210	564.72	553.89	102.0	23.6
Scott	Erickson	6360	1118.89	1097.45	102.0	43.5
Bill	Bonham  	4532	797.30	782.81	101.9	28.5
Storm	Davis   	5328	937.33	920.75	101.8	35.3
Rick	Waits   	4314	758.94	746.61	101.7	29.1
Jim	Bibby   	5183	911.82	897.22	101.6	35.4
Johnny	Podres  	5520	971.11	955.61	101.6	34.7
Marty	Pattin  	6111	1075.08	1058.04	101.6	36.4
Mark	Portugal	5009	881.21	867.39	101.6	31.1
Joey	Hamilton	3729	656.03	645.78	101.6	26.6
Gary	Bell    	6041	1062.77	1046.35	101.6	37.0
Jim	Kaat    	13638	2399.28	2362.22	101.6	85.9
Catfish	Hunter  	10176	1790.22	1763.00	101.5	64.0
Rheal	Cormier 	3292	579.15	570.51	101.5	24.2
Mike	Scott   	6182	1087.57	1071.79	101.5	46.7
Ken	Brett   	4613	811.55	800.11	101.4	30.1
Craig	Lefferts	3396	597.44	589.91	101.3	21.0
Mike	Norris  	3394	597.09	589.74	101.2	24.3
Dave	Giusti  	4944	869.78	859.19	101.2	29.0
Mike	Hampton 	5555	977.27	965.48	101.2	37.6
Dock	Ellis   	6303	1108.86	1095.52	101.2	40.7
Matt	Young   	3610	635.09	627.59	101.2	22.1
John	Burkett 	7474	1314.87	1299.52	101.2	43.6
Steve	Stone   	5393	948.77	938.45	101.1	30.8
Lee	Stange  	3654	642.83	635.85	101.1	21.0
Oil Can	Boyd    	4204	739.59	731.67	101.1	25.2
Skip	Lockwood	3693	649.69	643.28	101.0	24.9
Hideo	Nomo    	5349	941.03	932.56	100.9	35.9
Mike	Moore   	8541	1502.58	1489.11	100.9	56.9
Jim	Rooker  	5424	954.22	945.87	100.9	32.3
Bruce	Kison   	5424	954.22	946.33	100.8	30.5
Moose	Haas    	4937	868.55	861.95	100.8	29.2
Woody	Williams	5004	880.33	873.84	100.7	31.5
Rick	Wise    	9412	1655.81	1643.89	100.7	53.5
Denny	McLain  	5645	993.10	985.97	100.7	39.0
Charlie	Leibrandt	6913	1216.18	1208.18	100.7	42.0
Moe	Drabowsky	4655	818.94	813.68	100.6	35.1
Dennis	Leonard 	6505	1144.40	1137.35	100.6	38.1
Mike	Caldwell	7217	1269.66	1262.41	100.6	45.5
Paul	Foytack 	3575	628.94	626.42	100.4	20.0
Chris	Hammond 	3279	576.86	574.69	100.4	22.3
Joe	Nuxhall 	4352	765.63	762.75	100.4	24.9
Joey	Jay     	4444	781.81	779.56	100.3	26.9
Claude	Osteen  	10267	1806.23	1801.20	100.3	56.2
Darold	Knowles 	3243	570.53	569.09	100.3	21.0
Dick	Ellsworth	6418	1129.09	1126.62	100.2	38.9
Jose	Mesa    	4047	711.97	710.91	100.1	32.5
Shawn	Estes   	4282	753.31	752.47	100.1	26.1
Denny	Neagle  	5324	936.63	935.76	100.1	33.3
Bud	Black   	6113	1075.44	1074.83	100.1	34.5
Julian	Tavarez 	3082	542.20	542.21	100.0	20.9
Gene	Conley  	3190	561.20	561.99	99.9	18.7
Pedro	Ramos   	6269	1102.88	1105.06	99.8	38.1
Dave	Roberts 	6270	1103.06	1105.36	99.8	39.2
Larry	Christenson	4194	737.83	739.54	99.8	23.7
Mike	Flanagan	8177	1438.55	1442.48	99.7	45.8
Ed	Figueroa	3886	683.65	685.66	99.7	21.8
Miguel	Batista 	3122	549.24	551.04	99.7	17.9
Bob	Purkey  	5646	993.28	996.78	99.6	30.7
Robin	Roberts 	6207	1091.97	1096.40	99.6	35.9
Melido	Perez   	4034	709.69	712.62	99.6	24.9
Bob	Tewksbury	5361	943.14	947.13	99.6	28.2
Rick	Helling 	3849	677.14	680.21	99.5	25.4
Reggie	Cleveland	5472	962.67	967.08	99.5	29.6
Tom	Bradley 	3093	544.14	546.90	99.5	19.0
Bobby	Bolin   	4753	836.18	840.45	99.5	29.3
Lew	Burdette	5874	1033.39	1039.25	99.4	32.2
Gary	Peters  	6185	1088.10	1094.57	99.4	37.3
Bob	Moose   	3792	667.11	671.13	99.4	22.5
Dave	McNally 	8056	1417.26	1427.97	99.3	42.6
Mike	Morgan  	7877	1385.77	1396.77	99.2	47.6
Curt	Simmons 	5399	949.82	957.57	99.2	32.3
Dan	Petry   	6188	1088.63	1097.67	99.2	35.4
Pat	Dobson  	6317	1111.32	1120.88	99.1	32.5
Darryl	Kile    	5890	1036.20	1045.61	99.1	31.2
Vern	Law     	5203	915.34	923.72	99.1	29.5
Steve	Trout   	4541	798.88	806.51	99.1	29.4
Rick	Rhoden  	7758	1364.83	1378.77	99.0	40.3
Tom	Underwood	4731	832.31	840.96	99.0	25.4
Grant	Jackson 	4032	709.33	717.20	98.9	25.8
Dick	Tidrow  	5213	917.10	927.44	98.9	29.3
Juan	Berenguer	3593	632.10	640.30	98.7	22.0
Dick	Drago   	5607	986.42	999.36	98.7	27.9
Andy	Ashby   	4805	845.32	857.21	98.6	29.3
Scott	Sanderson	7687	1352.34	1372.16	98.6	41.2
Scott	McGregor	6344	1116.07	1132.73	98.5	31.1
Dave	Burba   	4686	824.39	837.43	98.4	23.8
Pedro	Astacio 	5644	992.93	1009.39	98.4	29.3
Charlie	Hough   	11411	2007.49	2043.54	98.2	59.2
Esteban	Loaiza  	5278	928.54	946.32	98.1	29.2
Jim	Merritt  	4456	783.93	799.16	98.1	22.4
Doc	Medich  	5957	1047.99	1068.37	98.1	26.8
Steve	Hargan  	4927	866.79	883.73	98.1	34.2
Danny	Jackson 	6220	1094.26	1115.75	98.1	35.6
Sidney	Ponson  	3695	650.05	662.88	98.1	19.1
Dave	Wickersham	3384	595.33	607.30	98.0	16.6
Russ	Ortiz   	3716	653.74	666.90	98.0	21.1
Cal	McLish  	3843	676.08	689.72	98.0	20.2
John	Montefusco	4958	872.24	891.19	97.9	23.4
Vern	Ruhle   	4231	744.34	760.56	97.9	21.1
Ken	Hill    	5493	966.36	987.43	97.9	30.7
Dustin	Hermanson	3167	557.16	569.47	97.8	18.8
Todd	Stottlemyre	6278	1104.46	1129.02	97.8	29.0
Joe	Magrane 	3289	578.62	591.55	97.8	16.6
Orlando	Pena    	3624	637.56	652.11	97.8	19.3
John	Buzhardt	4382	770.91	788.66	97.7	23.4
Pete	Vuckovich	4318	759.65	777.15	97.7	20.5
Ron	Darling  	7097	1248.55	1277.47	97.7	32.6
Dave	Stewart 	7840	1379.26	1411.37	97.7	37.7
Shane	Rawley  	5631	990.64	1014.26	97.7	28.5
Al	Fitzmorris	3797	667.99	684.23	97.6	18.3
Rick	Sutcliffe	8136	1431.33	1466.22	97.6	44.7
Woodie	Fryman  	7175	1262.27	1293.58	97.6	38.7
Livan	Hernandez	5203	915.34	938.81	97.5	25.5
Lary	Sorensen	5203	915.34	939.30	97.4	24.0
Bill	Lee     	5876	1033.74	1060.99	97.4	27.7
Pete	Harnisch	5267	926.60	951.46	97.4	26.8
Paul	Quantrill	3565	627.18	644.04	97.4	22.2
Joe	Coleman 	7723	1358.68	1396.30	97.3	40.0
Dick	Ruthven 	6386	1123.46	1154.69	97.3	28.1
Denny	Lemaster	5048	888.07	912.99	97.3	21.3
Wally	Bunker  	3227	567.71	584.18	97.2	16.4
Charles	Hudson  	3054	537.28	552.98	97.2	14.7
Ken	Holtzman	8560	1505.93	1549.97	97.2	40.8
Steve	Trachsel	5822	1024.24	1054.41	97.1	24.1
Bob	Turley  	3011	529.71	545.38	97.1	14.3
Jim	Bouton  	3697	650.40	669.88	97.1	18.1
Steve	Renko   	7484	1316.63	1356.77	97.0	32.3
Roger	Craig   	3772	663.59	683.88	97.0	21.1
Joaquin	Andujar 	6381	1122.58	1157.25	97.0	28.6
Pedro	Borbon  	3027	532.53	549.54	96.9	14.5
Cal	Eldred  	3779	664.82	686.13	96.9	17.7
Rick	Langford	4489	789.73	815.61	96.8	22.2
Hal	Brown   	3201	563.14	581.63	96.8	14.3
Jim	Clancy  	7532	1325.07	1371.52	96.6	34.8
Ernie	Broglio 	3959	696.49	721.24	96.6	21.7
Jack	Billingham	6605	1161.99	1204.17	96.5	30.4
Ted	Power   	3472	610.81	633.03	96.5	17.7
Terry	Mulholland	7225	1271.06	1318.44	96.4	35.6
Mudcat	Grant   	7297	1283.73	1331.75	96.4	32.2
Jim	Colborn 	4791	842.86	874.90	96.3	20.2
Mark	Clark   	3514	618.20	641.78	96.3	16.3
Floyd	Bannister	7154	1258.57	1308.15	96.2	30.4
Diego	Segui   	5391	948.42	985.96	96.2	22.5
Kent	Mercker 	3466	609.76	633.90	96.2	18.2
Mike	McCormick	7060	1242.04	1291.29	96.2	29.5
Fred	Norman  	5766	1014.39	1054.80	96.2	25.6
Bob	McClure 	3455	607.82	632.09	96.2	18.4
Don	Cardwell	6065	1066.99	1109.67	96.2	25.1
Juan	Pizarro 	5960	1048.52	1090.75	96.1	29.9
Larry	Gura    	6051	1064.53	1109.20	96.0	27.0
Frank	Castillo 	4766	838.46	873.66	96.0	21.9
Kirk	Rueter  	5146	905.31	944.36	95.9	23.5
Wayne	Garland 	3112	547.48	571.14	95.9	15.9
Doyle	Alexander	9989	1757.32	1835.31	95.8	45.6
Carl	Morton  	4862	855.35	893.34	95.7	19.9
Paul	Lindblad	3602	633.69	661.91	95.7	18.2
Walt	Terrell 	5927	1042.71	1089.64	95.7	23.0
Bob	Shaw    	5230	920.09	961.72	95.7	24.0
Jim	Lonborg 	7448	1310.30	1369.96	95.6	30.2
Bob	Bruce   	3384	595.33	622.53	95.6	14.7
Bill	Gullickson	7644	1344.78	1406.74	95.6	30.1
Clyde	Wright  	5142	904.61	946.77	95.5	20.5
Bob	Shirley 	4267	750.68	785.68	95.5	17.2
Pat	Zachry  	3535	621.90	651.45	95.5	14.9
Omar	Olivares	4158	731.50	767.10	95.4	17.5
Aaron	Sele    	5354	941.91	987.90	95.3	23.0
Stan	Bahnsen 	7606	1338.09	1403.94	95.3	29.9
Bruce	Ruffin  	3844	676.26	709.88	95.3	25.0
Joe	Gibbon  	3224	567.19	595.77	95.2	14.9
Bill	Wegman  	4424	778.30	817.60	95.2	18.0
Mark	Leiter  	3558	625.94	658.21	95.1	14.1
Mike	Krukow  	6620	1164.63	1225.09	95.1	23.3
Rick	Mahler  	5859	1030.75	1085.46	95.0	20.4
Mark	Davis   	3460	608.70	641.31	94.9	23.4
Don	Robinson	5852	1029.52	1085.39	94.9	23.0
Dick	Bosman  	4759	837.23	882.83	94.8	22.7
Craig	Swan    	3692	649.52	685.38	94.8	19.1
Bob	Buhl    	5511	969.53	1023.06	94.8	21.4
Tom	Browning	5770	1015.09	1071.63	94.7	20.1
Paul	Splittorff	7589	1335.10	1410.36	94.7	27.9
Tom	Hume    	3258	573.17	605.71	94.6	16.0
Eddie	Fisher  	4546	799.76	846.26	94.5	19.8
Bobby	Witt    	6901	1214.06	1284.76	94.5	24.5
Phil	Regan   	4128	726.22	768.72	94.5	19.7
Ed	Whitson 	6693	1177.47	1247.11	94.4	26.2
Dan	Schatzeder	3924	690.33	731.47	94.4	17.5
Mike	Torrez  	9075	1596.53	1691.75	94.4	34.5
Nelson	Briles  	6311	1110.27	1176.97	94.3	22.6
Ray	Washburn	3592	631.93	670.82	94.2	14.4
Andy	Hassler 	3361	591.29	627.73	94.2	15.6
Kevin	Gross   	7516	1322.26	1404.61	94.1	24.0
Milt	Wilcox  	5964	1049.22	1114.69	94.1	20.8
Ron	Kline   	4557	801.69	851.95	94.1	17.5
Bobby	Jones   	4354	765.98	814.30	94.1	14.5
Larry	McWilliams	4681	823.51	876.92	93.9	20.0
Jim	Deshaies	4569	803.81	856.76	93.8	17.7
Glen	Hobbie  	3752	660.07	704.45	93.7	12.7
Danny	Cox     	3829	673.62	719.26	93.7	17.2
Pete	Schourek	3113	547.66	585.06	93.6	13.3
Doug	Rau     	3734	656.91	702.02	93.6	12.2
Mark	Gardner  	4856	854.30	913.16	93.6	14.2
Dan	Spillner	4514	794.13	849.44	93.5	17.5
Al	Jackson 	4169	733.44	785.27	93.4	13.9
Eric	Show    	4915	864.68	926.76	93.3	16.4
Barry	Latman  	3631	638.79	684.73	93.3	16.1
Eric	Milton  	3520	619.26	664.58	93.2	11.2
Bob	Knepper 	8115	1427.64	1534.86	93.0	29.4
Doug	Bird    	3615	635.97	683.86	93.0	13.1
Steve	Sparks   	3505	616.62	663.50	92.9	10.9
Brett	Tomko   	3753	660.25	711.76	92.8	11.6
Steve	McCatty 	3581	629.99	679.37	92.7	12.2
Jim	McGlothlin	3849	677.14	730.70	92.7	14.5
Steve	Blass   	4587	806.97	871.21	92.6	16.5
Mike	Bielecki	3715	653.56	705.89	92.6	11.1
Ray	Sadecki 	7503	1319.97	1426.63	92.5	24.3
Gene	Nelson  	3208	564.37	610.03	92.5	13.0
Clay	Kirby   	4566	803.28	868.59	92.5	14.7
George	Brunet  	4220	742.41	803.60	92.4	16.7
Ster.	Hitchcock	3252	572.11	619.58	92.3	8.4
Bob	Forsch   	8268	1454.56	1577.62	92.2	24.1
Jason	Bere    	3138	552.06	599.78	92.0	11.2
Brian	Anderson	4233	744.69	810.06	91.9	10.4
Joe	Niekro  	10695	1881.53	2048.44	91.9	29.6
Glendon	Rusch   	3894	685.06	746.79	91.7	10.8
Bill	Stoneman	3673	646.18	704.45	91.7	13.1
Sammy	Ellis   	3037	534.29	582.90	91.7	11.6
Dennis	Rasmussen	4358	766.69	837.37	91.6	18.2
Richard	Dotson  	5529	972.69	1062.65	91.5	15.3
Tom	Murphy  	4264	750.15	819.83	91.5	14.1
Jason	Johnson 	3288	578.44	632.97	91.4	6.9
Tom	Phoebus 	3040	534.81	585.24	91.4	7.8
Tim	Leary   	4480	788.15	862.51	91.4	11.5
Mike	LaCoss  	5156	907.07	994.25	91.2	13.5
Lynn	McGlothen	4499	791.49	867.98	91.2	13.3
Tony	Cloninger	5005	880.51	966.02	91.1	12.6
Ramon	Ortiz   	3040	534.81	589.43	90.7	5.7
Darren	Oliver  	3677	646.88	713.27	90.7	9.5
Pat	Rapp    	3697	650.40	717.18	90.7	7.9
Willie	Blair   	3411	600.08	662.53	90.6	8.2
Bob	Walk    	4996	878.93	970.50	90.6	10.1
Curt	Young   	3304	581.26	642.95	90.4	9.0
Neal	Heaton  	4509	793.25	878.34	90.3	9.7
John	Curtis  	4929	867.14	960.59	90.3	10.0
Chuck	Dobson  	3763	662.01	733.41	90.3	7.3
Matt	Keough  	3589	631.40	700.01	90.2	8.8
Jaime	Navarro 	5664	996.44	1105.40	90.1	14.2
Jim	Nash    	3310	582.31	646.25	90.1	8.5
James	Baldwin 	3354	590.06	655.00	90.1	8.4
Bl. Mo.	Odom    	4504	792.37	882.02	89.8	13.3
Pete	Smith   	3091	543.79	605.46	89.8	6.2
Alan	Foster  	3054	537.28	598.79	89.7	8.8
Jim	Slaton  	7998	1407.06	1571.00	89.6	13.1
Jack	Fisher  	5892	1036.56	1158.35	89.5	10.6
Bill	Krueger 	3608	634.74	709.92	89.4	7.1
Eric	Rasmussen	3009	529.36	592.52	89.3	6.7
Mike	Smithson	4070	716.02	802.27	89.2	5.3
Glenn	Abbott  	3841	675.73	757.22	89.2	7.6
Bill	Travers 	3368	592.52	664.16	89.2	5.8
Jeff	Suppan  	4336	762.81	855.31	89.2	6.4
Wayne	Twitchell	3153	554.69	623.47	89.0	9.9
Ray	Burris  	6579	1157.42	1305.81	88.6	11.7
Tom	Griffin  	4517	794.66	899.22	88.4	9.6
Jamey	Wright  	3674	646.35	733.92	88.1	4.2
George	Stone   	3018	530.94	606.17	87.6	4.6
Ross	Grimsley	5928	1042.89	1194.10	87.3	6.9
Lew	Krausse 	3835	674.68	776.95	86.8	3.8
Jimmy	Haynes  	3151	554.34	639.28	86.7	5.5
Andy	Hawkins 	4625	813.66	938.39	86.7	3.2
Dave	LaPoint 	4419	777.42	896.82	86.7	5.6
Ricky	Bones   	3659	643.71	743.54	86.6	4.0
Jose	Lima    	3900	686.11	797.42	86.0	3.5
Jesse	Jefferson	3287	578.27	672.13	86.0	3.5
Dave	Mlicki  	3079	541.68	646.35	83.8	-0.4
Pete	Falcone 	4256	748.74	899.40	83.2	0.0
Randy	Lerch   	3248	571.41	736.10	77.6	-8.1

[brett]

Originally Posted by BigRon

I'm no mathematician, but I think you guys are entering the world of harmonic means versus arithmetic means, and things like that. As Brett implied, you've got to be very careful when doing these things.

I think the old fuel economy example is illustrative. You own 2 cars. Car A gets 30 miles per gallon (MPG) and car B gets 20 MPG. You drive each 1000 miles per month. Your average fuel economy is 25 MPG, right? No, it's 24.0 MPG. Car A uses 33.3 gallons to travel 1000 miles, car B uses 50 gallons. Together, they consume 83.3 gallons to travel 2000 miles= 24.0 MPG.

To get an average of 25.0 MPG, Car A (which consumes less, or under-consumes) must travel 1500 miles while car B travels 1000 miles. Then, car A will use 50 gallons, car B will use 50 gallons, and the combined distance travelled with 100 gallons of fuel will be 2500 miles= 25.0 MPG.

There are lots of related things like looking at inverses incorectly, too. As I said, I'm not a math guy and don't even know many of the terms, but it is really easy to reach the wrong answer/conclusion if you don't follow the correct logic.

What you have described is the problem with the current method of taking those averages.

[brett]

Originally Posted by SABR Matt

The solution, as I said before, is to take every player's season and adjust it so that it appears they all played with the same run-scoring context. The way to do it is by assuming their relative production rates are constant in any environment (if you allow 10% more runs than you should in a 5 R/G league - resulting in a 5.50 DNRA...you're still going to allow 10% more runs than you should in a 4 R/G league, resulting in a 4.40 DNRA).

I reduced all pitching seasons to a 4.75 R/G context and recalculated my career figures for total neutral runs allowed and expected runs allowed. Here is the new DNRA+ leaderboard for pitchers with at least 3000 defense independent outs:

First	Last    	Outs	XRA	NRA	DNRA+	Marker
Pedro	Martinez	6893	1212.66	781.23	155.2	197.8
etc.

What year is that data through?

Any major movers?

I notice that relievers tend to drop a lot, like 20 points or so versus traditional ERA+. Is that due to their situational advantage being negated?

Also with that in mind, I'm wondering about where Rivera would fit right now. What's your estimate?

Wilhelm and Gossage look good, with Tekulve next among relievers.

[SABR Matt]

It's through 2005 still...and 1999 is still missing...I just applied the corrected method to my old excel table.

Rivera has a corrected DNRA+ of 192 excluding 1999 and 2006-2009...so...I'm thinking he fits in as the greatest reliever of all time. He just didn't have 3000 outs yet without 99 and 2006 onward.

Actually...relievers dropped because I fixed a small bug in my table that I didn't notice before today (thank goodness I went back in there to make this other correction or I'd be using bad data...for which I apologize...feel rather dumb at the moment).

I was calculating my pythagorean pitchers' winning percentages with an incorrectly defined X value (remember...PythagenPat W% uses a variable exponent based on run scoring rate per game: X = ((RA + XRA)/(Outs/27))^0.285 for pitchers. FOr some reason I had it as X = ((XRA*54) / Outs)^0.285...in other words...I was doing pythags based on the average run scoring environment...not the pitcher's run scoring environment. You won't notice big changes for the starting pitchers (whose run environments tend not to differ all that much from average) but for relievers running 150 DNRA+ values in their good years, it does make a noticeable difference and has now been corrected both for seasonal DNRA+ and for the same-context DNRA+ used in career DNRA+ calculation.

[curveball]

Originally Posted by SABR Matt

The solution, as I said before, is to take every player's season and adjust it so that it appears they all played with the same run-scoring context. The way to do it is by assuming their relative production rates are constant in any environment (if you allow 10% more runs than you should in a 5 R/G league - resulting in a 5.50 DNRA...you're still going to allow 10% more runs than you should in a 4 R/G league, resulting in a 4.40 DNRA).

I reduced all pitching seasons to a 4.75 R/G context and recalculated my career figures for total neutral runs allowed and expected runs allowed. Here is the new DNRA+ leaderboard for pitchers with at least 3000 defense independent outs:

First	Last    	Outs	XRA	NRA	DNRA+	Marker
Pedro	Martinez	6893	1212.66	781.23	155.2	197.8
Roger	Clemens 	13666	2404.20	1648.92	145.8	309.4
Randy	Johnson 	10075	1772.45	1272.40	139.3	225.7
Sandy	Koufax  	6684	1175.89	888.58	132.3	115.9
Greg	Maddux  	12525	2203.47	1666.32	132.2	247.6
Mike	Mussina 	8394	1476.72	1124.43	131.3	141.9
Kevin	Brown   	9036	1589.67	1231.38	129.1	157.5
Curt	Schilling	8183	1439.60	1122.58	128.2	134.7
Bruce	Sutter  	3109	546.95	431.75	126.7	57.1
Kent	Tekulve 	4327	761.23	601.36	126.6	68.4
Hoyt	Wilhelm 	4853	853.77	676.96	126.1	73.0
Lee	Smith   	3892	684.70	544.04	125.9	61.1
Andy	Pettitte	5737	1009.29	807.82	124.9	84.3
Tim	Hudson  	3846	676.61	542.24	124.8	56.4
Kerry	Wood    	3371	593.05	477.00	124.3	47.7
John	Smoltz  	8228	1447.52	1170.41	123.7	122.0
Stu	Miller  	3778	664.65	538.10	123.5	55.7
Rich	Gossage 	5390	948.24	771.59	122.9	94.5
Dan	Quisenberry	3091	543.79	445.07	122.2	46.2
Bret	Saberhagen	7314	1286.72	1054.26	122.0	100.4
Nolan	Ryan    	16256	2859.85	2350.79	121.7	217.2
J.R.	Richard 	4826	849.02	700.52	121.2	65.5
Tom	Seaver  	14283	2512.75	2082.87	120.6	187.1
Barry	Zito    	3577	629.29	523.74	120.2	49.1
Mark	Buehrle 	3611	635.27	528.87	120.1	45.2
Sam	McDowell	7560	1330.00	1108.84	119.9	102.3
Tom	Gordon  	5914	1040.43	870.54	119.5	87.8
Bartolo	Colon   	4859	854.82	715.43	119.5	62.8
Dave	Stieb   	8650	1521.76	1276.23	119.2	109.5
Sid	Fernandez	5613	987.47	832.36	118.6	68.6
Ron	Guidry  	7124	1253.30	1056.74	118.6	91.9
Juan	Marichal	10576	1860.59	1569.13	118.6	134.1
Doug	Jones   	3059	538.16	454.02	118.5	47.6
Alej.	Pena    	3210	564.72	478.44	118.0	41.3
Jesse	Orosco  	3777	664.47	566.15	117.4	50.2
Andy	Messersmith	6643	1168.68	995.78	117.4	76.3
John	Franco  	3602	633.69	539.93	117.4	46.1
Derek	Lowe    	3616	636.15	542.33	117.3	46.6
Dwight	Gooden  	8118	1428.17	1217.67	117.3	98.9
Dean	Chance  	6425	1130.32	964.77	117.2	76.3
Mike	Jackson 	3323	584.60	499.13	117.1	48.4
Bob	Gibson  	11601	2040.92	1744.82	117.0	138.5
John	Hiller  	3722	654.80	560.03	116.9	48.8
Kevin	Appier  	7122	1252.94	1072.15	116.9	91.8
Gary	Lavelle 	3249	571.58	489.45	116.8	40.5
Whitey	Ford    	6420	1129.44	967.29	116.8	71.9
Gaylord	Perry   	16021	2818.51	2415.48	116.7	186.1
Bob	Stanley  	5151	906.19	777.22	116.6	60.4
Dave	Righetti	4205	739.77	634.68	116.6	55.5
Rollie	Fingers  	5029	884.73	759.23	116.5	63.8
Larry	Andersen	3003	528.31	453.78	116.4	41.6
Dick	Hall    	3252	572.11	491.98	116.3	40.6
Greg	Minton  	3391	596.56	513.01	116.3	47.5
Dan	Plesac  	3083	542.38	466.49	116.3	38.8
Jimmy	Key     	7714	1357.09	1168.19	116.2	89.3
Camilo	Pascual 	7545	1327.36	1143.84	116.0	90.9
David	Cone    	8148	1433.44	1239.56	115.6	97.2
Don	Drysdale	9994	1758.20	1525.62	115.2	107.5
Bert	Blyleven	14916	2624.11	2281.60	115.0	166.6
Sparky	Lyle    	4136	727.63	633.65	114.8	47.2
Jose	Rijo    	5655	994.86	866.62	114.8	68.5
Tug	McGraw  	4486	789.20	688.75	114.6	57.8
Dennis	Eckersley	9867	1735.86	1518.29	114.3	118.5
Teddy	Higuera 	4120	724.81	634.23	114.3	49.6
Juan	Guzman  	3892	684.70	599.27	114.3	46.4
Orel	Hershiser	8888	1563.63	1368.54	114.3	96.6
Jim	Maloney 	5525	971.99	854.76	113.7	61.0
Don	Wilson  	5186	912.35	803.54	113.5	51.4
Tom	Glavine 	11132	1958.41	1726.68	113.4	119.2
Ben	McDonald	3832	674.15	595.21	113.3	39.6
Fergie	Jenkins  	13506	2376.06	2099.60	113.2	135.9
Jon	Matlack 	7111	1251.01	1107.05	113.0	73.2
Larry	Jackson 	8983	1580.34	1399.16	112.9	88.4
Don	McMahon 	3883	683.12	605.68	112.8	47.8
Chuck	Finley  	8934	1571.72	1396.31	112.6	89.3
Sam	Jones   	3526	620.31	551.25	112.5	34.3
Willie	Hernandez	3120	548.89	489.42	112.2	38.0
Luis	Tiant   	10478	1843.35	1646.81	111.9	105.1
David	Wells   	8934	1571.72	1404.35	111.9	88.7
Steve	Rogers  	8449	1486.40	1328.15	111.9	83.8
Mark	Langston	8732	1536.19	1373.38	111.9	88.0
Clay	Carroll 	3927	690.86	619.77	111.5	41.0
Gene	Garber  	4516	794.48	712.83	111.5	51.4
Steve	Carlton 	15702	2762.39	2478.78	111.4	161.4
Roger	McDowell	3155	555.05	498.11	111.4	31.4
Kenny	Rogers  	8093	1423.77	1279.11	111.3	80.7
Bill	Hands   	5888	1035.85	931.45	111.2	55.2
Rick	Reuschel	10726	1886.98	1701.42	110.9	105.8
Hank	Aguirre 	3909	687.69	620.46	110.8	41.7
Jim	Palmer  	11620	2044.26	1845.97	110.7	108.2
Terry	Forster 	3308	581.96	526.22	110.6	34.0
Bill	Swift   	4803	844.97	764.64	110.5	50.0
Gary	Nolan   	4996	878.93	795.56	110.5	44.9
Don	Mossi   	3882	682.94	618.64	110.4	34.6
Jim	Bunning 	10911	1919.53	1739.60	110.3	103.7
Wilson	Alvarez 	4723	830.90	753.33	110.3	46.7
Al	Leiter  	6523	1147.56	1040.81	110.3	64.3
Jeff	Fassero 	5620	988.70	898.77	110.0	56.8
Ron	Perranoski	3502	616.09	560.15	110.0	37.1
Don	Aase    	3345	588.47	535.21	110.0	32.2
Greg	Harris  	4433	779.88	710.12	109.8	46.7
Mark	Mulder  	3561	626.47	570.67	109.8	33.4
John	Tudor   	5342	939.80	857.95	109.5	50.3
Jim	O'Toole 	4854	853.94	779.86	109.5	45.1
Matt	Clement 	3523	619.79	566.89	109.3	33.8
Javier	Vazquez 	4485	789.03	721.95	109.3	42.2
Warren	Spahn   	6587	1158.82	1060.91	109.2	57.8
Billy	O'Dell  	5316	935.22	856.73	109.2	47.0
Mel	Stottlemyre	7928	1394.74	1279.45	109.0	66.7
Alex	Fernandez	4797	843.92	774.27	109.0	42.9
Sonny	Siebert  	6534	1149.50	1054.96	109.0	58.2
Tommy	John    	14093	2479.32	2275.88	108.9	126.0
Chan Ho	Park    	4264	750.15	688.66	108.9	38.5
Chris	Bosio   	5140	904.26	830.98	108.8	44.6
Vida	Blue    	9963	1752.75	1611.28	108.8	96.1
Frank	Viola   	8535	1501.53	1382.26	108.6	77.9
Jason	Schmidt 	4573	804.51	741.26	108.5	44.8
Jeff	Reardon 	3368	592.52	546.00	108.5	30.7
Mario	Soto    	5184	912.00	841.33	108.4	48.3
Don	Sutton  	15676	2757.81	2544.26	108.4	131.5
Wilbur	Wood    	8088	1422.89	1313.87	108.3	71.5
Don	Gullett 	4081	717.95	663.74	108.2	33.3
Len	Barker  	4024	707.93	655.68	108.0	36.3
Larry	Dierker 	6945	1221.81	1131.91	107.9	60.7
Rudy	May     	7795	1371.34	1271.19	107.9	69.1
Jim	Brewer  	3067	539.56	500.49	107.8	33.0
John	Denny   	6488	1141.41	1058.79	107.8	59.2
Jon	Lieber  	5130	902.50	838.32	107.7	41.3
Jeff	Russell 	3327	585.31	543.81	107.6	33.3
Zane	Smith   	5744	1010.52	939.87	107.5	47.7
Ken	Forsch  	6285	1105.69	1028.41	107.5	51.8
Ron	Reed    	7345	1292.18	1202.66	107.4	60.9
Rick	Aguilera	3651	642.31	597.84	107.4	33.4
Dave	Rozema  	3287	578.27	539.15	107.3	26.0
John	Candelaria	7528	1324.37	1234.93	107.2	62.5
Brad	Radke   	6158	1083.35	1010.31	107.2	48.0
Atlee	Hammaker	3246	571.06	533.43	107.1	27.9
Mike	Witt    	6278	1104.46	1032.12	107.0	52.2
Eric	Plunk   	3244	570.70	533.38	107.0	31.5
Pascual	Perez   	3718	654.09	611.46	107.0	35.8
Steve	Bedrosian	3588	631.22	590.42	106.9	30.4
Mike	Boddicker	6379	1122.23	1049.70	106.9	52.1
Frank	Lary    	4906	863.09	807.49	106.9	40.2
Bob	Veale   	5336	938.74	880.01	106.7	45.0
Bob	Ojeda   	5710	1004.54	941.98	106.6	48.8
Jerry	Koosman  	11437	2012.06	1887.16	106.6	88.6
Randy	Jones   	5786	1017.91	955.27	106.6	49.5
Burt	Hooton  	7936	1396.15	1310.64	106.5	64.1
Phil	Niekro  	16148	2840.85	2668.06	106.5	126.2
Bill	Campbell	3659	643.71	604.65	106.5	30.1
Britt	Burns   	3255	572.64	538.30	106.4	25.2
Bob	Miller  	4650	818.06	769.10	106.4	42.2
Matt	Morris  	4060	714.26	671.53	106.4	31.7
Tim	Belcher 	6947	1222.16	1150.11	106.3	52.8
Mickey	Lolich  	10986	1932.72	1819.30	106.2	82.1
Ramon	Martinez	5637	991.69	933.84	106.2	44.4
Jose	DeLeon  	5671	997.68	939.61	106.2	45.5
Tom	Candiotti	8026	1411.98	1330.22	106.1	60.1
Mike	Cuellar 	8214	1445.06	1362.49	106.1	71.0
Billy	Pierce  	4196	738.19	696.13	106.0	30.5
Freddy	Garcia   	3606	634.39	598.34	106.0	27.3
Tom	Burgmeier	3714	653.39	616.66	106.0	36.1
Mike	Marshall	4061	714.44	674.60	105.9	35.0
Bill	Singer  	6519	1146.86	1083.27	105.9	50.4
Erik	Hanson  	4631	814.71	770.22	105.8	37.3
Lindy	McDaniel	5970	1050.28	994.36	105.6	52.3
Frank	Tanana  	12610	2218.43	2100.93	105.6	96.3
Chris	Carpenter	3403	598.68	567.25	105.5	26.8
Dave	LaRoche 	3111	547.31	518.67	105.5	27.3
Bill	Monbouquette	5947	1046.23	993.34	105.3	42.6
Doug	Drabek  	7584	1334.22	1266.78	105.3	56.6
Ralph	Terry   	5386	947.54	900.83	105.2	40.5
Pat	Hentgen 	5626	989.76	941.17	105.2	45.6
Joe	Horlen  	5968	1049.93	1000.56	104.9	44.8
Mark	Gubicza 	6646	1169.20	1114.49	104.9	48.7
Geoff	Zahn    	5520	971.11	926.56	104.8	41.8
Rick	Honeycutt	6510	1145.28	1093.03	104.8	52.8
John	Smiley  	5672	997.85	953.00	104.7	41.1
Jim	Perry   	9870	1736.39	1658.57	104.7	71.3
Jack	Morris  	11408	2006.96	1917.67	104.7	79.7
Cory	Lidle   	3436	604.48	578.03	104.6	25.2
Ed	Halicki 	3233	568.77	544.35	104.5	23.9
Jack	Kralick 	3652	642.48	615.03	104.5	27.1
Turk	Farrell 	5085	894.58	856.76	104.4	42.9
Pat	Jarvis  	3596	632.63	606.39	104.3	28.8
Bob	Friend  	6734	1184.69	1136.43	104.2	46.5
Jack	Sanford 	6154	1082.65	1038.69	104.2	42.3
Milt	Pappas  	9422	1657.57	1590.52	104.2	65.7
Greg	Swindell	6517	1146.51	1100.64	104.2	48.2
Jose	Guzman  	3692	649.52	623.97	104.1	25.3
Charles	Nagy    	5278	928.54	892.33	104.1	44.0
Stan	Williams	5306	933.46	897.12	104.1	36.5
Jack	McDowell	5534	973.57	937.52	103.8	38.5
Ken	Johnson 	4966	873.65	841.42	103.8	35.3
Bryn	Smith   	5352	941.56	906.86	103.8	37.4
Bob	Welch   	9245	1626.44	1567.04	103.8	64.5
Jim	Gott    	3371	593.05	571.47	103.8	23.7
Jeff	Weaver  	3688	648.81	625.25	103.8	24.8
Ray	Herbert 	4691	825.27	796.00	103.7	31.9
Pete	Richert 	3480	612.22	590.62	103.7	25.4
Bruce	Hurst   	7302	1284.61	1239.66	103.6	51.3
Kevin	Tapani  	6376	1121.70	1082.58	103.6	42.0
Steve	Barber  	5968	1049.93	1013.39	103.6	44.1
Jim	Abbott  	4723	830.90	802.84	103.5	32.7
Tim	Wakefield	6520	1147.04	1108.45	103.5	46.7
Shane	Reynolds	4693	825.62	798.13	103.4	36.3
Jim	Beattie 	3459	608.53	589.04	103.3	27.6
Kevin	Millwood	3951	695.08	672.91	103.3	25.0
Al	Downing 	6750	1187.50	1150.14	103.2	47.3
John	Thomson 	3362	591.46	573.22	103.2	22.4
Jarrod	Washburn	3236	569.30	551.97	103.1	20.1
Harvey	Haddix  	3608	634.74	616.13	103.0	25.1
Danny	Darwin  	9019	1586.68	1540.88	103.0	65.2
Jim	Barr    	6217	1093.73	1062.25	103.0	39.7
Dick	Donovan 	4541	798.88	776.10	102.9	30.8
Steve	Busby   	3176	558.74	543.21	102.9	22.4
Rick	Reed    	4154	730.80	712.41	102.6	29.3
Earl	Wilson  	6254	1100.24	1073.46	102.5	38.5
Dave	Dravecky	3116	548.19	535.05	102.5	18.5
Dennis	Martinez	11939	2100.38	2050.28	102.4	85.4
Dave	Goltz   	6123	1077.19	1051.64	102.4	40.8
Dennis	Lamp    	5489	965.66	942.93	102.4	38.9
La Marr	Hoyt    	3909	687.69	671.64	102.4	26.7
Fritz	Peterson	6594	1160.06	1133.29	102.4	43.4
Andy	Benes   	6904	1214.59	1186.73	102.3	45.3
Ray	Culp    	5786	1017.91	995.35	102.3	39.4
Jamie	Moyer   	8699	1530.38	1496.48	102.3	61.2
Chris	Short   	6958	1224.09	1197.16	102.2	50.1
Ismael	Valdez  	4868	856.41	838.30	102.2	36.2
Fernan.	Valenzuela	8763	1541.64	1509.26	102.1	66.7
Jerry	Reuss   	10994	1934.13	1894.21	102.1	72.2
David	Palmer  	3275	576.16	564.27	102.1	20.2
Early	Wynn    	3967	697.90	683.73	102.1	23.6
Steve	Avery   	4384	771.26	756.27	102.0	27.6
Kirk	McCaskill	5174	910.24	892.55	102.0	33.6
Dave	Boswell 	3210	564.72	553.89	102.0	23.6
Scott	Erickson	6360	1118.89	1097.45	102.0	43.5
Bill	Bonham  	4532	797.30	782.81	101.9	28.5
Storm	Davis   	5328	937.33	920.75	101.8	35.3
Rick	Waits   	4314	758.94	746.61	101.7	29.1
Jim	Bibby   	5183	911.82	897.22	101.6	35.4
Johnny	Podres  	5520	971.11	955.61	101.6	34.7
Marty	Pattin  	6111	1075.08	1058.04	101.6	36.4
Mark	Portugal	5009	881.21	867.39	101.6	31.1
Joey	Hamilton	3729	656.03	645.78	101.6	26.6
Gary	Bell    	6041	1062.77	1046.35	101.6	37.0
Jim	Kaat    	13638	2399.28	2362.22	101.6	85.9
Catfish	Hunter  	10176	1790.22	1763.00	101.5	64.0
Rheal	Cormier 	3292	579.15	570.51	101.5	24.2
Mike	Scott   	6182	1087.57	1071.79	101.5	46.7
Ken	Brett   	4613	811.55	800.11	101.4	30.1
Craig	Lefferts	3396	597.44	589.91	101.3	21.0
Mike	Norris  	3394	597.09	589.74	101.2	24.3
Dave	Giusti  	4944	869.78	859.19	101.2	29.0
Mike	Hampton 	5555	977.27	965.48	101.2	37.6
Dock	Ellis   	6303	1108.86	1095.52	101.2	40.7
Matt	Young   	3610	635.09	627.59	101.2	22.1
John	Burkett 	7474	1314.87	1299.52	101.2	43.6
Steve	Stone   	5393	948.77	938.45	101.1	30.8
Lee	Stange  	3654	642.83	635.85	101.1	21.0
Oil Can	Boyd    	4204	739.59	731.67	101.1	25.2
Skip	Lockwood	3693	649.69	643.28	101.0	24.9
Hideo	Nomo    	5349	941.03	932.56	100.9	35.9
Mike	Moore   	8541	1502.58	1489.11	100.9	56.9
Jim	Rooker  	5424	954.22	945.87	100.9	32.3
Bruce	Kison   	5424	954.22	946.33	100.8	30.5
Moose	Haas    	4937	868.55	861.95	100.8	29.2
Woody	Williams	5004	880.33	873.84	100.7	31.5
Rick	Wise    	9412	1655.81	1643.89	100.7	53.5
Denny	McLain  	5645	993.10	985.97	100.7	39.0
Charlie	Leibrandt	6913	1216.18	1208.18	100.7	42.0
Moe	Drabowsky	4655	818.94	813.68	100.6	35.1
Dennis	Leonard 	6505	1144.40	1137.35	100.6	38.1
Mike	Caldwell	7217	1269.66	1262.41	100.6	45.5
Paul	Foytack 	3575	628.94	626.42	100.4	20.0
Chris	Hammond 	3279	576.86	574.69	100.4	22.3
Joe	Nuxhall 	4352	765.63	762.75	100.4	24.9
Joey	Jay     	4444	781.81	779.56	100.3	26.9
Claude	Osteen  	10267	1806.23	1801.20	100.3	56.2
Darold	Knowles 	3243	570.53	569.09	100.3	21.0
Dick	Ellsworth	6418	1129.09	1126.62	100.2	38.9
Jose	Mesa    	4047	711.97	710.91	100.1	32.5
Shawn	Estes   	4282	753.31	752.47	100.1	26.1
Denny	Neagle  	5324	936.63	935.76	100.1	33.3
Bud	Black   	6113	1075.44	1074.83	100.1	34.5
Julian	Tavarez 	3082	542.20	542.21	100.0	20.9
Gene	Conley  	3190	561.20	561.99	99.9	18.7
Pedro	Ramos   	6269	1102.88	1105.06	99.8	38.1
Dave	Roberts 	6270	1103.06	1105.36	99.8	39.2
Larry	Christenson	4194	737.83	739.54	99.8	23.7
Mike	Flanagan	8177	1438.55	1442.48	99.7	45.8
Ed	Figueroa	3886	683.65	685.66	99.7	21.8
Miguel	Batista 	3122	549.24	551.04	99.7	17.9
Bob	Purkey  	5646	993.28	996.78	99.6	30.7
Robin	Roberts 	6207	1091.97	1096.40	99.6	35.9
Melido	Perez   	4034	709.69	712.62	99.6	24.9
Bob	Tewksbury	5361	943.14	947.13	99.6	28.2
Rick	Helling 	3849	677.14	680.21	99.5	25.4
Reggie	Cleveland	5472	962.67	967.08	99.5	29.6
Tom	Bradley 	3093	544.14	546.90	99.5	19.0
Bobby	Bolin   	4753	836.18	840.45	99.5	29.3
Lew	Burdette	5874	1033.39	1039.25	99.4	32.2
Gary	Peters  	6185	1088.10	1094.57	99.4	37.3
Bob	Moose   	3792	667.11	671.13	99.4	22.5
Dave	McNally 	8056	1417.26	1427.97	99.3	42.6
Mike	Morgan  	7877	1385.77	1396.77	99.2	47.6
Curt	Simmons 	5399	949.82	957.57	99.2	32.3
Dan	Petry   	6188	1088.63	1097.67	99.2	35.4
Pat	Dobson  	6317	1111.32	1120.88	99.1	32.5
Darryl	Kile    	5890	1036.20	1045.61	99.1	31.2
Vern	Law     	5203	915.34	923.72	99.1	29.5
Steve	Trout   	4541	798.88	806.51	99.1	29.4
Rick	Rhoden  	7758	1364.83	1378.77	99.0	40.3
Tom	Underwood	4731	832.31	840.96	99.0	25.4
Grant	Jackson 	4032	709.33	717.20	98.9	25.8
Dick	Tidrow  	5213	917.10	927.44	98.9	29.3
Juan	Berenguer	3593	632.10	640.30	98.7	22.0
Dick	Drago   	5607	986.42	999.36	98.7	27.9
Andy	Ashby   	4805	845.32	857.21	98.6	29.3
Scott	Sanderson	7687	1352.34	1372.16	98.6	41.2
Scott	McGregor	6344	1116.07	1132.73	98.5	31.1
Dave	Burba   	4686	824.39	837.43	98.4	23.8
Pedro	Astacio 	5644	992.93	1009.39	98.4	29.3
Charlie	Hough   	11411	2007.49	2043.54	98.2	59.2
Esteban	Loaiza  	5278	928.54	946.32	98.1	29.2
Jim	Merritt  	4456	783.93	799.16	98.1	22.4
Doc	Medich  	5957	1047.99	1068.37	98.1	26.8
Steve	Hargan  	4927	866.79	883.73	98.1	34.2
Danny	Jackson 	6220	1094.26	1115.75	98.1	35.6
Sidney	Ponson  	3695	650.05	662.88	98.1	19.1
Dave	Wickersham	3384	595.33	607.30	98.0	16.6
Russ	Ortiz   	3716	653.74	666.90	98.0	21.1
Cal	McLish  	3843	676.08	689.72	98.0	20.2
John	Montefusco	4958	872.24	891.19	97.9	23.4
Vern	Ruhle   	4231	744.34	760.56	97.9	21.1
Ken	Hill    	5493	966.36	987.43	97.9	30.7
Dustin	Hermanson	3167	557.16	569.47	97.8	18.8
Todd	Stottlemyre	6278	1104.46	1129.02	97.8	29.0
Joe	Magrane 	3289	578.62	591.55	97.8	16.6
Orlando	Pena    	3624	637.56	652.11	97.8	19.3
John	Buzhardt	4382	770.91	788.66	97.7	23.4
Pete	Vuckovich	4318	759.65	777.15	97.7	20.5
Ron	Darling  	7097	1248.55	1277.47	97.7	32.6
Dave	Stewart 	7840	1379.26	1411.37	97.7	37.7
Shane	Rawley  	5631	990.64	1014.26	97.7	28.5
Al	Fitzmorris	3797	667.99	684.23	97.6	18.3
Rick	Sutcliffe	8136	1431.33	1466.22	97.6	44.7
Woodie	Fryman  	7175	1262.27	1293.58	97.6	38.7
Livan	Hernandez	5203	915.34	938.81	97.5	25.5
Lary	Sorensen	5203	915.34	939.30	97.4	24.0
Bill	Lee     	5876	1033.74	1060.99	97.4	27.7
Pete	Harnisch	5267	926.60	951.46	97.4	26.8
Paul	Quantrill	3565	627.18	644.04	97.4	22.2
Joe	Coleman 	7723	1358.68	1396.30	97.3	40.0
Dick	Ruthven 	6386	1123.46	1154.69	97.3	28.1
Denny	Lemaster	5048	888.07	912.99	97.3	21.3
Wally	Bunker  	3227	567.71	584.18	97.2	16.4
Charles	Hudson  	3054	537.28	552.98	97.2	14.7
Ken	Holtzman	8560	1505.93	1549.97	97.2	40.8
Steve	Trachsel	5822	1024.24	1054.41	97.1	24.1
Bob	Turley  	3011	529.71	545.38	97.1	14.3
Jim	Bouton  	3697	650.40	669.88	97.1	18.1
Steve	Renko   	7484	1316.63	1356.77	97.0	32.3
Roger	Craig   	3772	663.59	683.88	97.0	21.1
Joaquin	Andujar 	6381	1122.58	1157.25	97.0	28.6
Pedro	Borbon  	3027	532.53	549.54	96.9	14.5
Cal	Eldred  	3779	664.82	686.13	96.9	17.7
Rick	Langford	4489	789.73	815.61	96.8	22.2
Hal	Brown   	3201	563.14	581.63	96.8	14.3
Jim	Clancy  	7532	1325.07	1371.52	96.6	34.8
Ernie	Broglio 	3959	696.49	721.24	96.6	21.7
Jack	Billingham	6605	1161.99	1204.17	96.5	30.4
Ted	Power   	3472	610.81	633.03	96.5	17.7
Terry	Mulholland	7225	1271.06	1318.44	96.4	35.6
Mudcat	Grant   	7297	1283.73	1331.75	96.4	32.2
Jim	Colborn 	4791	842.86	874.90	96.3	20.2
Mark	Clark   	3514	618.20	641.78	96.3	16.3
Floyd	Bannister	7154	1258.57	1308.15	96.2	30.4
Diego	Segui   	5391	948.42	985.96	96.2	22.5
Kent	Mercker 	3466	609.76	633.90	96.2	18.2
Mike	McCormick	7060	1242.04	1291.29	96.2	29.5
Fred	Norman  	5766	1014.39	1054.80	96.2	25.6
Bob	McClure 	3455	607.82	632.09	96.2	18.4
Don	Cardwell	6065	1066.99	1109.67	96.2	25.1
Juan	Pizarro 	5960	1048.52	1090.75	96.1	29.9
Larry	Gura    	6051	1064.53	1109.20	96.0	27.0
Frank	Castillo 	4766	838.46	873.66	96.0	21.9
Kirk	Rueter  	5146	905.31	944.36	95.9	23.5
Wayne	Garland 	3112	547.48	571.14	95.9	15.9
Doyle	Alexander	9989	1757.32	1835.31	95.8	45.6
Carl	Morton  	4862	855.35	893.34	95.7	19.9
Paul	Lindblad	3602	633.69	661.91	95.7	18.2
Walt	Terrell 	5927	1042.71	1089.64	95.7	23.0
Bob	Shaw    	5230	920.09	961.72	95.7	24.0
Jim	Lonborg 	7448	1310.30	1369.96	95.6	30.2
Bob	Bruce   	3384	595.33	622.53	95.6	14.7
Bill	Gullickson	7644	1344.78	1406.74	95.6	30.1
Clyde	Wright  	5142	904.61	946.77	95.5	20.5
Bob	Shirley 	4267	750.68	785.68	95.5	17.2
Pat	Zachry  	3535	621.90	651.45	95.5	14.9
Omar	Olivares	4158	731.50	767.10	95.4	17.5
Aaron	Sele    	5354	941.91	987.90	95.3	23.0
Stan	Bahnsen 	7606	1338.09	1403.94	95.3	29.9
Bruce	Ruffin  	3844	676.26	709.88	95.3	25.0
Joe	Gibbon  	3224	567.19	595.77	95.2	14.9
Bill	Wegman  	4424	778.30	817.60	95.2	18.0
Mark	Leiter  	3558	625.94	658.21	95.1	14.1
Mike	Krukow  	6620	1164.63	1225.09	95.1	23.3
Rick	Mahler  	5859	1030.75	1085.46	95.0	20.4
Mark	Davis   	3460	608.70	641.31	94.9	23.4
Don	Robinson	5852	1029.52	1085.39	94.9	23.0
Dick	Bosman  	4759	837.23	882.83	94.8	22.7
Craig	Swan    	3692	649.52	685.38	94.8	19.1
Bob	Buhl    	5511	969.53	1023.06	94.8	21.4
Tom	Browning	5770	1015.09	1071.63	94.7	20.1
Paul	Splittorff	7589	1335.10	1410.36	94.7	27.9
Tom	Hume    	3258	573.17	605.71	94.6	16.0
Eddie	Fisher  	4546	799.76	846.26	94.5	19.8
Bobby	Witt    	6901	1214.06	1284.76	94.5	24.5
Phil	Regan   	4128	726.22	768.72	94.5	19.7
Ed	Whitson 	6693	1177.47	1247.11	94.4	26.2
Dan	Schatzeder	3924	690.33	731.47	94.4	17.5
Mike	Torrez  	9075	1596.53	1691.75	94.4	34.5
Nelson	Briles  	6311	1110.27	1176.97	94.3	22.6
Ray	Washburn	3592	631.93	670.82	94.2	14.4
Andy	Hassler 	3361	591.29	627.73	94.2	15.6
Kevin	Gross   	7516	1322.26	1404.61	94.1	24.0
Milt	Wilcox  	5964	1049.22	1114.69	94.1	20.8
Ron	Kline   	4557	801.69	851.95	94.1	17.5
Bobby	Jones   	4354	765.98	814.30	94.1	14.5
Larry	McWilliams	4681	823.51	876.92	93.9	20.0
Jim	Deshaies	4569	803.81	856.76	93.8	17.7
Glen	Hobbie  	3752	660.07	704.45	93.7	12.7
Danny	Cox     	3829	673.62	719.26	93.7	17.2
Pete	Schourek	3113	547.66	585.06	93.6	13.3
Doug	Rau     	3734	656.91	702.02	93.6	12.2
Mark	Gardner  	4856	854.30	913.16	93.6	14.2
Dan	Spillner	4514	794.13	849.44	93.5	17.5
Al	Jackson 	4169	733.44	785.27	93.4	13.9
Eric	Show    	4915	864.68	926.76	93.3	16.4
Barry	Latman  	3631	638.79	684.73	93.3	16.1
Eric	Milton  	3520	619.26	664.58	93.2	11.2
Bob	Knepper 	8115	1427.64	1534.86	93.0	29.4
Doug	Bird    	3615	635.97	683.86	93.0	13.1
Steve	Sparks   	3505	616.62	663.50	92.9	10.9
Brett	Tomko   	3753	660.25	711.76	92.8	11.6
Steve	McCatty 	3581	629.99	679.37	92.7	12.2
Jim	McGlothlin	3849	677.14	730.70	92.7	14.5
Steve	Blass   	4587	806.97	871.21	92.6	16.5
Mike	Bielecki	3715	653.56	705.89	92.6	11.1
Ray	Sadecki 	7503	1319.97	1426.63	92.5	24.3
Gene	Nelson  	3208	564.37	610.03	92.5	13.0
Clay	Kirby   	4566	803.28	868.59	92.5	14.7
George	Brunet  	4220	742.41	803.60	92.4	16.7
Ster.	Hitchcock	3252	572.11	619.58	92.3	8.4
Bob	Forsch   	8268	1454.56	1577.62	92.2	24.1
Jason	Bere    	3138	552.06	599.78	92.0	11.2
Brian	Anderson	4233	744.69	810.06	91.9	10.4
Joe	Niekro  	10695	1881.53	2048.44	91.9	29.6
Glendon	Rusch   	3894	685.06	746.79	91.7	10.8
Bill	Stoneman	3673	646.18	704.45	91.7	13.1
Sammy	Ellis   	3037	534.29	582.90	91.7	11.6
Dennis	Rasmussen	4358	766.69	837.37	91.6	18.2
Richard	Dotson  	5529	972.69	1062.65	91.5	15.3
Tom	Murphy  	4264	750.15	819.83	91.5	14.1
Jason	Johnson 	3288	578.44	632.97	91.4	6.9
Tom	Phoebus 	3040	534.81	585.24	91.4	7.8
Tim	Leary   	4480	788.15	862.51	91.4	11.5
Mike	LaCoss  	5156	907.07	994.25	91.2	13.5
Lynn	McGlothen	4499	791.49	867.98	91.2	13.3
Tony	Cloninger	5005	880.51	966.02	91.1	12.6
Ramon	Ortiz   	3040	534.81	589.43	90.7	5.7
Darren	Oliver  	3677	646.88	713.27	90.7	9.5
Pat	Rapp    	3697	650.40	717.18	90.7	7.9
Willie	Blair   	3411	600.08	662.53	90.6	8.2
Bob	Walk    	4996	878.93	970.50	90.6	10.1
Curt	Young   	3304	581.26	642.95	90.4	9.0
Neal	Heaton  	4509	793.25	878.34	90.3	9.7
John	Curtis  	4929	867.14	960.59	90.3	10.0
Chuck	Dobson  	3763	662.01	733.41	90.3	7.3
Matt	Keough  	3589	631.40	700.01	90.2	8.8
Jaime	Navarro 	5664	996.44	1105.40	90.1	14.2
Jim	Nash    	3310	582.31	646.25	90.1	8.5
James	Baldwin 	3354	590.06	655.00	90.1	8.4
Bl. Mo.	Odom    	4504	792.37	882.02	89.8	13.3
Pete	Smith   	3091	543.79	605.46	89.8	6.2
Alan	Foster  	3054	537.28	598.79	89.7	8.8
Jim	Slaton  	7998	1407.06	1571.00	89.6	13.1
Jack	Fisher  	5892	1036.56	1158.35	89.5	10.6
Bill	Krueger 	3608	634.74	709.92	89.4	7.1
Eric	Rasmussen	3009	529.36	592.52	89.3	6.7
Mike	Smithson	4070	716.02	802.27	89.2	5.3
Glenn	Abbott  	3841	675.73	757.22	89.2	7.6
Bill	Travers 	3368	592.52	664.16	89.2	5.8
Jeff	Suppan  	4336	762.81	855.31	89.2	6.4
Wayne	Twitchell	3153	554.69	623.47	89.0	9.9
Ray	Burris  	6579	1157.42	1305.81	88.6	11.7
Tom	Griffin  	4517	794.66	899.22	88.4	9.6
Jamey	Wright  	3674	646.35	733.92	88.1	4.2
George	Stone   	3018	530.94	606.17	87.6	4.6
Ross	Grimsley	5928	1042.89	1194.10	87.3	6.9
Lew	Krausse 	3835	674.68	776.95	86.8	3.8
Jimmy	Haynes  	3151	554.34	639.28	86.7	5.5
Andy	Hawkins 	4625	813.66	938.39	86.7	3.2
Dave	LaPoint 	4419	777.42	896.82	86.7	5.6
Ricky	Bones   	3659	643.71	743.54	86.6	4.0
Jose	Lima    	3900	686.11	797.42	86.0	3.5
Jesse	Jefferson	3287	578.27	672.13	86.0	3.5
Dave	Mlicki  	3079	541.68	646.35	83.8	-0.4
Pete	Falcone 	4256	748.74	899.40	83.2	0.0
Randy	Lerch   	3248	571.41	736.10	77.6	-8.1

I'd like to understand these numbers a little better.

a) Is DNRA+ similar to adjusted ERA+, but with defense factored in? If it is, then how many points of DNRA+ would you expect a pitcher to lose for every 1000 outs more?

b) Is the marker number similar to something like WAR or WARP, where you try to assign a value for each season, and then just add them all together to get the pitcher's career total?

c) Could I please get a brief explanation of XRA and NRA?


Thanks Matt.

[SABR Matt]

First XRA and NRA:

XRA is how many runs a pitcher should give up if he's exactly average in a league where 4.75 runs score per game. Simply multiply 4.75 by the pitcher's number of defense independent outs and divide by 27. DNRA is a metric designed to track actual runs...not earned runs so everything is scaled to actual runs and the errors that go on behind a pitcher are assumed to occur at the league average rate per batted ball in play (by default, this assumption occurs when you use baseRuns to evaluate the expected run-value of each possible event and then assume that anything not in the pitcher's control happens at the league average rate plus the rate at which he allows those things to happen above that which occurs when every other pitcher on his team is on the mound).

NRA is the pitcher's defense neutral runs allowed adjusted to that same 4.75 R/G context. DNRA calculates everything calibrated to the league average run scoring rate, so the original baseRuns value must be multiplied by Lg Runs per Game / 4.75 (the odds ratio method) to obtain a common run scoring context for all pitchers.

DNRA+ is 100*(XRA / NRA), yielding an ERA+ like metric where 100 is average and higher is better, but with defense factored out (along with the unfair weighting of park factors that goes on in traditional ERA+).

The Marker number is an estimate of the player's worthiness to be in the HOF. It's found with the following steps:

Calculate the pitcher's marginal run value in four steps:

1) Pitcher's Winning Percentage:

----> PWP = 1 - (NRA^X / (NRA^X + XRA^X)); X = ((NRA+XRA) / (DIOuts / 27))^0.285

2) Find the offense-equivalent run margin:

----> Margin = (.35 / .65)^(1/X) * XRA (this forces the margin to be defined using pythagorean logic at a .350 winning percentage)

3) Find the pitcher's marginal run value:

----> Offense Equivalent Runs (OER) = (PWP / (1 - PWP))^(1/X) * XRA
----> Marginal Runs (MR) = OER - Margin

4) Convert the pitcher's marginal runs to wins and the wins to a marker score:

----> W = MR / 10
----> Marker = W*2 - Average W
----> Average W = (XRA - Margin) / 10

The theory being that a player's HOF worthiness can be estimated in short as his wins in each season plus his wins above average in each season (giving him credit for being well above average on top of credit for the value he produced).

If you've got any other questions or concerns, feel free to let me know and hopefully I can be of help.

[SABR Matt]

Just noticed I missed a question...

I have debated some with STLCards2 and brett in the past about how best to deal with the reality that the more someone pitches, the harder it is to be dominant (rise far above average)...I'm not sure there's a clear answer to that question...at least I don't think we've found any kind of consensus best idea yet. I, personally, believe the best place to start would be to use Tom Tango's favorite approach and regress everything to the mean once we've picked a common playing time length to which everyone should be compared. But that's risky and may make incorrect assumptions so I'm not totally comfortable doing it as yet.

[STLCards2]

Matt - to clarify, DNRA+ has seen a lot of changes over the years. The current edition...

Does account for variances vs. team regarding XBH prevention and pitcher defense.

It does not account for situational splits or pitcher offense.

Is this correct?

And when will 1999, 2005-2009 be included? Isn't 1999 batted ball data available yet?

[curveball]

Some of your numbers had me wondering, so I have a few questions that would probably clear things up better for me

a) How does Nolan Ryan go from a career era+ of 111, and overtake Tom Seaver, who had a 127? Ryan goes to 121.7, and Seaver drops to 120.6. I didn't go through the whole list, but I definitely noticed that Ryan jumped 10 points. The same goes for Pettitte, as he jumped about 9 points, so I am assuming that they are 2 of the biggest jumpers. What was it about Ryan that he got shortchanged so much by era+ over his career?

b) You have Marichal and Gibson in a virtual dead heat. Something like WAR has Gibson ahead 85.5 to 64.1. PRAA has Gibson ahead 349 to 221. I believe both WAR and PRAA use defensive considerations. Who was better in your opinion based on your findings?

c) You probably would have answered this question by answering questions A and B. I noticed that Phil Niekro took a serious hit in your findings. He had a 96.8 WAR to Ryan's 84.8, and a 359 PRAA to Ryan's 222. Based on your research you would seem to have this group of pitchers rated kind of in this order then?

1 Nolan Ryan
2 Tom Seaver
3 Gaylord Perry
4 Bert Blyeven
5 Steve Carlton
t6 Bob Gibson
t6 Juan Marichal
8 Fergie Jenkins
9 Don Sutton
10 Jim Palmer
11 Tommy John
12 Phil Niekro


Thanks again Matt.

[SABR Matt]

Originally Posted by STLCards2

Matt - to clarify, DNRA+ has seen a lot of changes over the years. The current edition...

Does account for variances vs. team regarding XBH prevention and pitcher defense.

It does not account for situational splits or pitcher offense.

Is this correct?

And when will 1999, 2005-2009 be included? Isn't 1999 batted ball data available yet?

DNRA hasn't actually seen a lot of changes, STLCard2...the only things I've changed since the first draft hit fever in 2006 are:

I switched from linear weights to baseRuns after Tom Tango persuaded me that the pitcher's own run environment was more accurate than the average one.

I began considering pitcher-fielded balls as defense independent pitching successes.

I corrected my calculation of career DNRA+ to account for changing run environments and put everyone on the same scale.

I fixed a small bug in my calculation of the pythag exponent.

The system currently accounts for the following:

- The pitcher's ability to prevent in play hits of all types relative to his team defenses
- The pitcher's DIPS skill
- The pitcher's ability to check the running game
- The pitcher's ability to field his own position
- The pitcher's park-adjusted HR rate

No accounting for the strength of opponent faced or situational variability are included though I'd like to address both.

1999 data is available and I've already downloaded it. 1952-1956 are also available and I've stored them as I've done with 2006-2009. I just haven't had time to recalculate DNRA+ for the new database. I'm hoping to get to that this winter as I'm tired of having to hand-calculate a DNRA when people ask me about a current pitcher's results.