1993 Best of Baseball election thread

[Jar of Flies]

1 Johnny Bench
2 Hughie Jennings
3 Joe Kelley
4 Charlie Keller
5 Dick Lundy
6 Darrell Evans
7 Jimmy Sheckard
8 Phil Rizzuto
9 Jimmy Wynn
10 Don Newcombe
11 Roger Bresnahan
12 Luis Tiant

[jalbright]

1 Johnny Bench

I've also sent you a PM on this, but Bench has been elected. Your ballot is valid--but everyone moves up a spot and #12 is open. I prefer that the voter fix it his or her own way, and not leave an open spot. That said, this stuff happens, so not to worry about anything other than fixing it.

[Chadwick]

Players
1. Luis Tiant
2. Joe Torre
3. Roger Bresnahan
4. Jimmy Wynn
5. Edd Roush
6. Darrell Evans
7. Willard Brown
8. Hughie Jennings
9. Reggie Smith
10. Joe Kelley
11. Perucho Cepeda
12. Charlie Keller

Contributors
1. Gus Greenlee
2. O.P. Caylor
3. Vic Harris
4. Bob Ferguson
5. Al Munro Elias

[Captain Cold Nose]

1. Burleigh Grimes
2. Edd Roush
3. Addie Joss
4. Luis Aparicio
5. Lefty Gomez
6. Hughie Jennings
7. Roger Bresnahan
8. Luis Tiant
9. Joe Torre
10.Joe Kelley
11. Willard Brown
12. Eppa Rixey

Contributors

1. Billy Evans
2. Gus Greenlee
3. Happy Chandler
4. O.P. Caylor
5. Vic Harris

[TheMendozaLine]

Players:

1. Addie Joss
2. Lou Brock
3. Jake Beckley
4. Edd Roush
5. Roger Bresnahan
6. Joe Kelley
7. Burleigh Grimes
8. Sam Rice
9. Luis Tiant
10. Tony Mullane
11. Willard Brown
12. Jimmy Sheckard


Contributors:

1. Happy Chandler
2. Harry Caray
3. Phil Rizzuto
4. Vin Scully
5. Paul Krichell

[jalbright]

We have a quorum on both ballots.

[jalbright]

We're down to two player ballots from the last election's voters, namely Paul Wendt and joggerdru. If one or both of them have not voted by Monday, I will follow up with them by PM. Next election promises to be rather interesting.

On the contributor side, we add:
Hemond , Roland
Tanner , Chuck
Williams , Dick

Ordinarily, I'd say Williams would be in excellent shape. That would ignore a critical fact--1994 is the year Buck O'Neill deserves to receive credit for both the opening of the Negro League Museum as well as his work in Ken Burns' baseball. That will vault him to #1 on my list. Williams will find a spot as well, so I'll have to bump at least one and possibly two guys to make room for them.

On the player side, I think the holdovers will have to wait. This is a loaded class coming in:
Baker , Dusty
Baylor , Don
Blue , Vida
Buckner , Bill
Dempsey , Rick
Fisk , Carlton
Garner , Phil
Grich , Bobby
Hargrove , Mike
Hrabosky , Al
Reuschel , Rick
Ryan , Nolan
Schmidt , Mike
Scott , George
Simmons , Ted
Thornton , Andre

There are five guys who will make my ballot from that list Schmidt, Ryan, Simmons, Grich and Fisk (not in that order). Fortunately, it looks like I'll have three openings, so only my last two additions will have to go on vacation for a bit.

[joggerdru]

1 Burleigh Grimes
2 Addie Joss
3 Luis Tiant
4 Eppa Rixey
5 Ed Roush
6 Rog Breshanan
7 Hughie Jennings
8 Joe Torre
9 Joe Kelley
10 Urban Schocker
11 Jim Wynn
12 Lou Brock

[jjpm74]

Why are Addie Joss and Burleigh Grimes being pushed over Luis Tiant Jr. as the best 2 pitchers? Tiant blows Grimes away in career value and peak value and has a decided edge over Joss, who is possibly the most overhyped short career pitcher in terms of peak value, had no longevity, and Tiant was more important in terms of peak when looking at era and league quality.

[jalbright]

Why are Addie Joss and Burleigh Grimes being pushed over Luis Tiant Jr. as the best 2 pitchers? Tiant blows Grimes away in career value and peak value and has a decided edge over Joss, who is possibly the most overhyped short career pitcher in terms of peak value, had no longevity, and Tiant was more important in terms of peak when looking at era and league quality.

It may seem that way from some of the recent ballots, but Tiant leads those two, though Joss is reasonably close. Joss only lead him by 1 point in the last election, but had fewer supporters. That gave Luis more opportunities to increase his score, and has pushed him ahead.

[J W]

I've explained my support for Joss and support against Grimes before. What I want to know is why Billy Pierce is so far behind Tiant, who may very well be elected this season. Tiant had 7 votes for 51 points last time and Pierce had nothing. Compare the two and you will see (I hope) there is little statistical difference. I don't get it. Kind of the same way I don't get why Red Faber made it in while Eppa Rixey is struggling.

In fact, I just looked up Tiant's Hall of Merit page for the first time. The very first reply is "He looks a LOT like Billy Pierce. Was he leveraged like Pierce?"

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/luis_tiant/

Tiant will be elected without my help it seems, but he is very close on my pitcher's queue (behind Pierce). The only remarkable stat he has over the field of holdovers is a pitching WAR of 60.1 (batting WAR is -0.7). I'm having trouble figuring out where the extra (guestimate) 8-10 points comes from. Could be the ballpark... except his ERA+ is only 115. Could be the pitching age... except he pitched through the silver age of pitching, where all kinds of starting pitchers were having great years. Could be team defense... but nothing jumps out to me from those Cleveland teams of the 60s and Boston teams of the 70s as being bad. He didn't pitch particularly long for a HOF career either (77th in career BF). He's got a Gray Ink of 112 (179th all time). Yet there he is with an eqERA under 3.90 and a WAR approaching Palmer and Marichal.

I don't mean to come across as saying I do not support Tiant -- I do, or at least would be soon as a few more players are elected from my ballot. I'm showing why he's behind Joss in my queue. As well as the likes of Faber, Rixey, Ruffing, and Lemon.

[Paul Wendt]

... What I want to know is why Billy Pierce is so far behind Tiant, who may very well be elected this season. ... I just looked up Tiant's Hall of Merit page for the first time. The very first reply is "He looks a LOT like Billy Pierce. Was he leveraged like Pierce?"
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...on/luis_tiant/

There may be a plurality for Billy Pierce as the least of the Hall of Merit pitchers. Founder and "commissioner" Joe Dimino, whose research focus is Pennants Added for pitchers, has named Joe McGinnity and Bob Lemon. Officially Pierce ranks last in the 1923-1958 group, Ted Lyons to Whitey Ford.

Annually Luis Tiant is one of the best supported candidate pitchers, clearly behind only David Cone.


JW continues with the observation that
here at the Best of Baseball, Tiant leads the holdover pitchers only by pitching WAR 60.1.

I'm having trouble figuring out where the extra (guestimate) 8-10 points comes from. Could be the ballpark... except his ERA+ is only 115. Could be the pitching age... except he pitched through the silver age of pitching, where all kinds of starting pitchers were having great years.

(my emphasis)
That crowd does not much influence any version of WAR, whose reference point is "replacement level" play.

There is some reason to believe that the entire cohort benefited from relatively easy circumstances (as did Joss & Co. in the 19-aughts). First, they joined the major leagues soon after the second biggest permanent expansion, 1960-1962 (compare the biggest, 1899-1901). Tiant & Co. also benefited from the third biggest expansion, 1969. Second, per Craig Wright/Tom House and Bill James, pitchers benefit in longevity from physically easier work when young. The high pitching mounds and big strike zones of the 1960s major leagues provided relatively easy conditions that may have balanced or overbalanced the high numbers of starts and innings. The second point pertains only to big careers, not to big seasons.

[J W]

Just because we're on topic... highest pitching WAR among eligible holdovers:

(35) 64.7 - Jim McCormick (?!?)
(41) 60.1 - Luis Tiant
(42) 59.0 - Tommy John
(44) 58.8 - Jerry Koosman
(48) 57.2 - Vic Willis
(49) 56.5 - Mickey Welch
(52) 56.1 - Charlie Buffinton (?)
(54) 55.6 - Larry Jackson (!!)
(64) 53.8 - Silver King
(67) 53.5 - Billy Pierce

That list surprises me. Looks heavy on 19th century players. I did not expect to see half of those names.

[Paul Wendt]

That list surprises me. Looks heavy on 19th century players.

It is.

It is also heavy on the cohort under discussion, Tiant & Co.

Of course any list such as this is merely a red flag, not strong evidence for any particular problem ("bias"). It flags at least bias in WAR, bias in Best of Baseball participants, and structural bias in the Best of Baseball.

Here the likely-important aspects of "structure" are that we started in virtual 1936 and we are now in virtual 1993. Neither the 1880s cohort nor the 1960s cohort has been considered in just the same way as the 1910s cohort.
FWIW i don't believe structural bias in the BoB is important regarding the composition of that list.

[J W]

There may be a plurality for Billy Pierce as the least of the Hall of Merit pitchers. Founder and "commissioner" Joe Dimino, whose research focus is Pennants Added for pitchers, has named Joe McGinnity and Bob Lemon. Officially Pierce ranks last in the 1923-1958 group, Ted Lyons to Whitey Ford.

Annually Luis Tiant is one of the best supported candidate pitchers, clearly behind only David Cone.

So, if Pierce is at or near the bottom of elected pitchers, and Tiant is at or near the top of the holdovers, then they would have similar value right?

That crowd does not much influence WAR, whose reference point is "replacement level" play, nor TPI whose reference point is league average.

So replacement level is constant regardless of age, using normalized stats I assume?