Does Jim Rice get in this year?

[Brooklyn]

I'm not asking if you think he deserves it, that has been debated frequently.

The question is if you think he is going to get in to the Hall in his 15th and final shot on the writer's ballot.

[SamtheBravesFan]

My gut says he will, so I think "yes". That's really all I can say.

[Mongoose]

I think the relentless lobbying will finally work, even though Rice really doesn't belong.

My question is: will his nickname be etched on the plaque like that of so many other Hall of Famers?

Denton True "Cy" Young
George Herman "Babe" Ruth
James Edward "6-4-3" Rice

That's what the Boston fans used to chant while waiting for him to ground into another double play.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by SamtheBravesFan

My gut says he will, so I think "yes". That's really all I can say.

Your gut is supported by history.

Jim RiceYear Votes PCT 
1995  137 29.8% 
1996  166 35.3% 
1997  178 37.6% 
1998  203 42.9% 
1999  146 29.4% 
2000  257 51.5% 
2001  298 57.9% 
2002  260 55.1% 
2003  259 52.2% 
2004  276 54.5% 
2005  307 59.5% 
2006  337 64.8% 
2007  346 63.5% 
2008  392 72.2%

Rice started out in HOF voting in 1995 at 29.8% of the BBWAA vote. He jumped to 35 percent in 1996, 37 percent in 1997, and 42.9 percent in 1998, before dropping to 29.4% in 1999.

I view the 1999 result as an aberration caused by the McGwire/Sosa HR duel. The feats of these two guys made Rice's career seem less impressive, and his vote total took a sudden dip. He would recover in 2000, breaking the 50 percent mark (51.5%). He would build on this steadily, breaking the 60 percent mark in 2006 (64.8%), solidifying this gain in support in 2007 (63.5% in a year where Ripken and Gwynn were on the ballor for the first time), and jumping to 72.7 percent in 2008. There is no question but that Rice has solidified a base of support for his HOF candidacy

Let's look at some other close calls that didn't get in:

Nellie FoxYear Votes PCT 
1971  39 10.8% 
1972  64 16.2% 
1973  73 19.2% 
1974  79 21.6% 
1975  76 21% 
1976  174 44.8% 
1977  152 39.7% 
1978  149 39.3% 
1979  174 40.3% 
1980  161 41.8% 
1981  168 41.9% 
1982  127 30.6% 
1983  173 46.3% 
1984  246 61% 
1985  295 74.7%

Gil HodgesYear Votes PCT 
1969  82 24.1% 
1970  145 48.3% 
1971  180 50% 
1972  161 40.7% 
1973  218 57.4% 
1974  198 54.2% 
1975  188 51.9% 
1976  233 60.1% 
1977  224 58.5% 
1978  226 59.6% 
1979  242 56% 
1980  230 59.7% 
1981  241 60.1% 
1982  205 49.4% 
1983  237 63.4%

Both of these guys came close, but didn't make it (although Fox was later tapped for the HOF by the VC). Rice's standing is better than both Hodges and Fox going into his last year of eligibility. Rice has a much more solidified base of support than Fox (who didn't even break 50% until his next to last year). Hodges had much more solid support than did Fox, but not at as high a level; he topped out at 63.4%. Hodges' support had solidified at about a 60 percent level; that would require a 15% jump in support for Hodges to get in. Rice's support has solidified at AT LEAST a 65% level; that would require only a 10% jump to get in. Then, too, neither Fox nor Hodges broke 70% having eligibility left.

The presence of "first ballot HOFers" on the HOF ballot does affect voting. There was no such candidate in 2008, so Rice made a great leap forward. That's not the case in 2009; Rickey Henderson will be on the ballot, and he will walk right in. Bert Blyleven will also be on the ballot, and while has has another year to go beyond Rice, he is more highly regarded in some quarters than is Rice. Blyleven has what Rice has going for him; an awareness on the part of the BBWAA that it's "now or never" time with his candidacy.

Despite the presence of Blyleven and Henderson, I say Rice gets in. Henderson is a first-ballot HOFer, but he has his detractors, so he won't overshadow the field as much as, say, Ripken did. And while it's ALMOST now-or-never time for Blyleven, it's zero hour for Rice, and the BBWAA is aware of this. Lastly, the steroid thing is working in Rice's favor; he hit HRs without PEDs, and this makes it for the S. S. S. (Super Sanctimonious Sportswriter) contingent in the BBWAA. Rice's election is likely; there would be no precedent for any player coming this close with eligibility left only to fall short. I don't think Rice is going to be the first exception.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by Mongoose

I think the relentless lobbying will finally work, even though Rice really doesn't belong.

My question is: will his nickname be etched on the plaque like that of so many other Hall of Famers?

Denton True "Cy" Young
George Herman "Babe" Ruth
James Edward "6-4-3" Rice

That's what the Boston fans used to chant while waiting for him to ground into another double play.

I don't see Rice's election as a case of relentless lobbying. Rice was considered a superstar while active; it was his early flameout (due to eye problems) and his BA dropping under .300 lifetime that took some of the sparkle off his HOF case.

I'm not a big fan of Rice's HOF case. His Offensive Winning Percentage for his career was only .627, and although it was probably in the .660 range if you took out his last 3 years, that's still not overwhelming for a corner outfielder with a short career. I would not support him for the HOF.

But he's going to get in. At least I BELIEVE he will get in this year. I can't emphasize enough that given the degree to which he has steadily built his base of support with the BBWAA, coupled with the fact that this is his LAST year of eligibility, I believe that Rice will increase his support to where he will (deservedly or not) break the 75% barrier, if only by a few votes, and be elected to the HOF.

[henrich]

LF Henderson 15,519
LF Rice Jim 11,347

How long has it been since a LF has been inducted. The strongest players from this field are Rose (if that's where you put him), Henderson, and Rice. The problem with Rice this year is exactly what Fuzzy pointed out that many sportswriters like some superstars to stand alone, that would be henderson this year. My hope is the S.S.S. as previously stated helps him more than the lone stage hurts him.

I thought Blyleven had more than 2 years of eligibility left. I'll have to look that up. Blyleven is the biggest oversight in all of the Hall of fame voting history and that should be rectified as well.

Dawson is also on this ballot as is Lee Smith and Jack Morris.

Newcomer Matt Williams should get some votes as well-he plays an underrepresented position and he wasn't bad. I put him in the Santo, Boyer category, though that may hurt him to be grouped with them if the writers share this opinion.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by henrich

LF Henderson 15,519
LF Rice Jim 11,347

How long has it been since a LF has been inducted. The strongest players from this field are Rose (if that's where you put him), Henderson, and Rice. The problem with Rice this year is exactly what Fuzzy pointed out that many sportswriters like some superstars to stand alone, that would be henderson this year. My hope is the S.S.S. as previously stated helps him more than the lone stage hurts him.

What will help Rice, IMO, is the astonishing stupidity of some sportwriters. There are actually some sportswriters who view Henderson a non-superstar who "hung on to get 3,000 hits and the steals record". Amazing, but true.

Henderson's hanging on well into his forties, while a sign of ability retention, does diminish his image with the BBWAA somewhat. Rice is the beneficiary of that diminishment.

[henrich]

I hope your right Fuzzy. I want nothing more than a Rice selection and then next year give me Andre and Bert.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by henrich

I hope your right Fuzzy. I want nothing more than a Rice selection and then next year give me Andre and Bert.

I'm not a Rice man, personally, but I won't be bent out of shape when (and I do believe it's "when") he goes into the Hall.

There is, IMO, something wrong with Rice going in if Allen and Belle are still out.

[henrich]

LF Rice 11,347
LF Belle 8686
1B Allen 9030

My numbers don't support that opinion, but I do recognize that both Belle and Allen were quality players and it wouldn't break my heart if both Belle and Allen got in some day.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Bear

I'm not a Rice man, personally, but I won't be bent out of shape when (and I do believe it's "when") he goes into the Hall.

There is, IMO, something wrong with Rice going in if Allen and Belle are still out.

I'm almost certain that Rice will get in this year. The "last year on the ballot effect" should give him more than the necessary boost in votes to get him in. I'd vote for Allen and Belle myself, but both of them will have a hard time ever getting in. Voters traditionally show no mercy on guys with surly reputations who aren't slam-dunk candidates. You can't rightly argue against Cobb or Hornsby, but when Belle retires prematurely due to injury, that's all the voters need to keep him out. Rice wasn't loved by the media either, but he certainly wasn't in the Belle/Allen category. If those two could've toned it down just a little, maybe they'd be viewed differently. Though they were both troubled, I don't think either of them were terrible guys, they just didn't care to court the media and smile for the camera like some of the other jerks in baseball history were willing to do.

[mwiggins]

I think Rice will most likely get in this year. I wouldn't vote for him, but I don't really have a problem with him making it. He certainly won't be the least deserving player elected this decade by the BWAA.

[mwiggins]

Originally Posted by Otis Nixon's Bodyguard

Voters traditionally show no mercy on guys with surly reputations who aren't slam-dunk candidates.

It'll be interesting to see how they treat Sheffield and Manny when they're on the ballot. They should be slam-dunk candidates, but you never know.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by mwiggins

It'll be interesting to see how they treat Sheffield and Manny when they're on the ballot. They should be slam-dunk candidates, but you never know.

Sheffield and Manny will both have 500 HRs, and good batting averages. There would be no precedent for keeping either player out of the HOF.

[jjpm74]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Bear

Sheffield and Manny will both have 500 HRs, and good batting averages. There would be no precedent for keeping either player out of the HOF.

Sheffield had 2 peaks and is a prime candidate for PEDs usage. That seems to be taking its toll in HOF elections and may impede Sheffield's chances.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by jjpm74

Sheffield had 2 peaks and is a prime candidate for PEDs usage. That seems to be taking its toll in HOF elections and may impede Sheffield's chances.

Sheffield won't be a first-ballot pick, but the BBWAA will eventually come around.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Originally Posted by mwiggins

It'll be interesting to see how they treat Sheffield and Manny when they're on the ballot. They should be slam-dunk candidates, but you never know.

Manny will get elected with very little resistance. He may have to settle for 85% of the vote instead of the 95% that players of his caliber typically command, but I predict he'll be a first ballot HOFer. Sheffield will have HOF numbers, but he's a prime PED suspect. Until there is more of a precedent than just Mark McGwire, I can't say how Sheffield will be treated.

[gwynnfan]

IMO, besides not getting along with the sports writers. If he did not play his last year and retired with .300 batting average he would have got in a long time ago.
For the first 12 years out of his 15 he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
8 x's Allstar
MVP + 7x's top 5's
2 Silver Slugger
1st AVG 6 x's top 7 average
3 x's 1st HRs 7 x's top 10
2 1st RBIs 7 x's top 5
1 1st hits 8 x's top 10
2 1st 6 x's top 2 slugging 9 top 10
8 x's top 10 runs
4 x's 1st 9 x's top 7 total bases


In his era how many played better than that thats not in the HALL?

[mwiggins]

Originally Posted by gwynnfan

IMO, besides not getting along with the sports writers. If he did not play his last year and retired with .300 batting average he would have got in a long time ago.
For the first 12 years out of his 15 he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
8 x's Allstar
MVP + 7x's top 5's
2 Silver Slugger
1st AVG 6 x's top 7 average
3 x's 1st HRs 7 x's top 10
2 1st RBIs 7 x's top 5
1 1st hits 8 x's top 10
2 1st 6 x's top 2 slugging 9 top 10
8 x's top 10 runs
4 x's 1st 9 x's top 7 total bases


In his era how many played better than that thats not in the HALL?

This has been done to death, but...

Forget his era, how 'bout just his team.

Dwight Evans - 8 time GG, 3 time All-Star 127 OPS+, .646 OWP, in 10,569 PA's
Jim Rice - 0 GG's, 8 time All-Star, 128 OPS+, .627 OWP, in 9058 PA's
Fred Lynn - 4 GG's, 9 time All-Star, 129 OPS+, .648 OWP, in 7923 PA's

I would say Evans is easily more worthy than Rice. Lynn's also probably got a better case, but I wouldn't put him in the Hall either. Lynn also vastly out performed Rice in the post season. .407/.450/.593 in 15 games for Lynn, .225/.313/.366 in 18 games for Rice. He was also a GG winning CF, not a poor fielding LF.

Rice was certainly more feared, but even as a kid back in the early 80's I understood that Evans was the better all-around player. And when Lynn was healthy he was often the better player, too. See 1975 & 1979 for the best examples of that.

[gwynnfan]

Originally Posted by mwiggins

This has been done to death, but...

Forget his era, how 'bout just his team.

Dwight Evans - 8 time GG, 3 time All-Star 127 OPS+, .646 OWP, in 10,569 PA's
Jim Rice - 0 GG's, 8 time All-Star, 128 OPS+, .627 OWP, in 9058 PA's
Fred Lynn - 4 GG's, 9 time All-Star, 129 OPS+, .648 OWP, in 7923 PA's

I would say Evans is easily more worthy than Rice. Lynn's also probably got a better case, but I wouldn't put him in the Hall either. Lynn also vastly out performed Rice in the post season. .407/.450/.593 in 15 games for Lynn, .225/.313/.366 in 18 games for Rice. He was also a GG winning CF, not a poor fielding LF.

Rice was certainly more feared, but even as a kid back in the early 80's I understood that Evans was the better all-around player. And when Lynn was healthy he was often the better player, too. See 1975 & 1979 for the best examples of that.

They definitely had one of the top outfields for a stretch I have seen. 75 to 80 they were great. I watch them growing up in Boston. I had a Rice and Evans bat. My Dad worked the Police detail in the dugout. I have played golf with both of them, you should see Rice hit a driver. But Evans was a solid hitter but did not have the avg or slg Rice did. He had one the best arms I have personally seen. Lynn was a solid hitter too but only in Boston. He hit like 40 HR one year then went to the Angels and thought he could do it all the time. kind of became average after that.

[mwiggins]

Originally Posted by gwynnfan

But Evans was a solid hitter but did not have the avg or slg Rice did. He had one the best arms I have personally seen. .

True, but Rice didn't have the OBP that Evans did. Evans was a different kind of hitter, but he was just as productive, over a significantly longer career. And Rice wasn't nearly the defensive player that Evans was.

[jaxxr]

Among countless stats, numbers, awards, league leading performances, the following is a pretty good indicator,

Rice could hit for both power and average, and at this time, only nine other completely retired ballplayers rank ahead of him in both career home runs and batting average. They are: Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams.

[Captain Cold Nose]

The only way Rice does not get in this year is if there are multiple first-year locks. That's how Jim Bunning did not get voted in after coming so close with a couple years left, he took a back seat to Bench and Yaz in 1989 and Morgan and Palmer in 1990. Rickey Henderson obviously will get in, probably clearing 95% because of all the records he held. Rice will clear 80%.

You can argue day and night he doesn't belong or he does. His election is imminent.

[gwynnfan]

If 15 years is not long enough to play compared to Reggies 21 here are some season average #s

Jim Rice
36 pts higher average, 42 more hits, 2 more dbl, 3 more trpl, 2 less hrs, 15 more RBIs, 39 less strike outs, 12 pts higher slugging, 42 more total base
Pretty dominate stats over Reggie.


career totals per season ( don't forget Reggie has 6 more season to achieve )
of standard marks of strong seasons in each category.

............................. Reggie Jackson...............Jim Rice

+280 avg seasons............... 5.............................11
+300 avg seasons................0.......................... ....7
+160 hits............................0................. .............9
+200 hits............................0................. .............4
+100 runs...........................1.................. ............3
+100 RBIs...........................6.................. ............8
+25 dbls.............................9................ ..............8
+5 triples...........................1...(6)......... ...............6...( 15 2 x's )
+35 home runs....................4...( high 47 )..............4...( high 46 )
+60 extra base hits............. 6...............................7
+300 total bases.................3........................... ....6
+350 total bases.................0........................... ....3
+400 total bases.................0........................... ....1
+ 100 strike outs................18...(14 xs top 5 ).........6
+130 strike outs.................10..(league leader 5 x's)..0
MVP awards.......................1.................... ............1
top 5 MVPs........................5..................... ...........6
led league in rbi
avg,hr,slg,tb,xbh................12............... ...............19

[mwiggins]

Originally Posted by gwynnfan

If 15 years is not long enough to play compared to Reggies 21 here are some season average #s

Jim Rice
36 pts higher average, 42 more hits, 2 more dbl, 3 more trpl, 2 less hrs, 15 more RBIs, 39 less strike outs, 12 pts higher slugging, 42 more total base
Pretty dominate stats over Reggie.

He also has dominate stats over Clemente on a per season basis. 14 more HR's, 27 pts higher slugging, 21 more total bases, 26 more RBI.

And over Ty Cobb...24 more HR's, 10 more RBI, 8 more total bases,