Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Ortiz deserving of MVP

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Ortiz deserving of MVP

    In final stats:

    7th in OBP
    2nd in Slugging
    3rd in OPS
    4th in Runs
    1st in Total Bases
    1st in HRs
    1st in RBIs
    1st in BBs
    3rd in OPS+
    2nd in Extra-Base hits
    2nd in times on base
    10.3 ABs per HR

    And MOST IMPORTANTLY - 1st in Runs Created, by 16 runs over Hafner.

    And leader of our team
    And all the walk-off hits


    But of course, since he doesn't play D, people will not vote for him, but they will vote for someone who plays D but doesn't do it well. (Howard)

    And then someone will come in talking about VORP, when really he contributes the most to our team, unless Jeter or Morneau save as many runs as they trail Ortiz in Runs Created, and I dont think Morneau saved 21 runs with his glove, and I don't think Jeter saved 23.

    So, before I had picked Mauer as my MVP, but after looking at it after the season, my choice is Big Papi. (and no, standings have no effect on my position, as I thought A-Rod was deserving when he won as well)

    But the New York bias will reign once again. See: Joe Gordon, 1942.

  • #2
    It's not just simply about playing D, it's also about how being a one way player gives Ortiz certain advantages to be a better hitter.

    I notice that you curiously left out any mention of win shares.

    Ortiz finished tied for third in the AL in win shares at 29. He was behind Derek Jeter (33) and Joe Mauer (31) and tied with teammate Manny Ramirez.

    Additionally, and very interestingly, Ortiz despite being a designated hitter, and therefore paid to be a slugger and big hitter, had 29 batting win shares - Derek Jeter, a SS - a position with typically weak offense, had 28 batting win shares. I'd say that Jeter's speed and fielding easily make up that 1 win share, as does the enormous intrinsic value of having that type of production out of a SS (whereas, there are likely a number of players that can be a DH and have 25+ win shares).

    Again, value is measured by where the premium is, IMO. There is a much greater premium on guys like Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer playing SS and C, than there is on someone like Ortiz DHing (or playing 1B - but he can't even do that).

    Comment


    • #3
      I dont use Win Shares very much at all, to tell you the truth. You're again going on stuff like premium, and while I respect that, I would rather use that when I'm a GM, not when i'm voting for a MVP. I go with PRODUCTION. Ortiz produced more runs than anyone. I'd call that an MVP, no matter what position you play.

      (not to say runs created should be the only reason)
      Last edited by EvanAparra; 10-05-2006, 09:16 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by EvanAparra
        I dont use Win Shares very much at all, to tell you the truth. You're again going on stuff like premium, and while I respect that, I would rather use that when I'm a GM, not when i'm voting for a MVP. I go with PRODUCTION. Ortiz produced more runs than anyone. I'd call that an MVP, no matter what position you play.

        (not to say runs created should be the only reason)
        Yet Jeter and Mauer contributed to more wins, and Ortiz's own teammate, Ramirez, contributed to just as many. So how could Ortiz be the most valuable player of the league when someone else was just as valuable to his team in terms of contributing to wins, and especially when that player missed the last month of the season?

        And as for runs created, since you seem to favoring that statistic, a SS that produces 28 runs of offense is more valuable than a DH that produces 29.
        Last edited by DoubleX; 10-05-2006, 09:43 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Again, you are using your SS vs. DH type of thing.... And if I were GM, i would use it. But i refuse to believe that 28 runs is better than 29 over the course of one season when it comes to determining the MVP. According to Win Shares Jeter and Mauer contributed to more wins, and i don't take Win Shares as my bible to see who was more productive. Ortiz created more runs, and had a higher OPS+ than either of those guys, by a longshot. He contributed in scoring the most runs for his team, so he did his job.

          So, is it by your estimation, whoever has the most Win Shares or VORP should win the MVP?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by EvanAparra
            Again, you are using your SS vs. DH type of thing.... And if I were GM, i would use it. But i refuse to believe that 28 runs is better than 29 over the course of one season when it comes to determining the MVP. According to Win Shares Jeter and Mauer contributed to more wins, and i don't take Win Shares as my bible to see who was more productive. Ortiz created more runs, and had a higher OPS+ than either of those guys, by a longshot. He contributed in scoring the most runs for his team, so he did his job.

            So, is it by your estimation, whoever has the most Win Shares or VORP should win the MVP?
            No, but it's just another stat. You seem to be selecting stats that help your case and dismissing stats that cut against your case - that doesn't seem like a very objective way to go about this. Yes, one stat shows Ortiz produced more runs, but another shows that Jeter and Mauer contributed to more wins and Ramirez as many. At the end of the day, what matters more, runs scored, or winning?

            Most importantly to this, Runs Created does not factor in defense - it is entirely offensively based. So of course it is going to be slanted towards DHs and 1Bman. So are you saying we should just ignore defense altogether? If this is the only stat we're going to base the MVP on, then there really isn't any need for anyone to play defense is there? Don't you think defensive value should also be factored into the equation? Win shares includes that and is thus probably a better statistics here because it is reflective of a player's TOTAL contribution to winning. Players that bother to play defense deserve to have that be factored into their value, especially in comparison to players that don't. Your insistence on premising this on runs created would totally ignore the defensive contributions of the entire non-DHing league, and that's not fair at all, and of course will be biased towards guys like Ortiz and Hafner who have the advantage of being nothing but hitters.

            Basically, by favoring runs created, you are saying that defense is irrelevant and worthless in the MVP discussion.
            Last edited by DoubleX; 10-05-2006, 10:21 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              I'm not ignoring them, and it seems that you are doing exactly the same thing with Jeter and Mauer, and ignoring the stats that cut against your case.

              Contributing to more wins... I dont get this... If Mauer and Jeter are on a team with more wins, they dont they have a chance to contribute to more wins? I guess I dont get how Win Shares is calculated... Does this stat take away from the production of a player in a losing effort?

              I dont ignore defense, as I think it helps Mauer's case, and its why I have him second over Jeter. Jeter is like 3rd to last in the AL in SS defensive win shares, so being below average doesn't help him in my calculations.

              Comment


              • #8
                BIG PAPI deserves it this year because he has been consistently good..consistently

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think Jeter has been consistent as well.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    If you really argue for Jeter your kidding yourself. Jeter is down my list. Don't get me wrong he's been very good, however. My list goes:

                    Ortiz - His numbers were just too high this year to screw him of this award, although I think he won't win. They love to not give it to him. Last year it was because he was a DH, and now this year he's so far better than everyone else, but since the Sox didn't make the playoff's they are playing that card.

                    Mauer- Not only did he finish with a higher avg than Jeter, but he too plays great defense at an even more important position.

                    Morneau - He had a great year.

                    Dye - Right in line with Morneau's numbers, although not realistically in it.

                    Jeter - Will probably win the MVP, however IMO there are plenty of guys that deserve it more. It's the Yankee bias.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I agree with you for the most part Jager. Ortiz and Mauer are definately my top 2. Not only does Mauer play an important position, he does it WELL.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by EvanAparra
                        I'm not ignoring them, and it seems that you are doing exactly the same thing with Jeter and Mauer, and ignoring the stats that cut against your case.

                        Contributing to more wins... I dont get this... If Mauer and Jeter are on a team with more wins, they dont they have a chance to contribute to more wins? I guess I dont get how Win Shares is calculated... Does this stat take away from the production of a player in a losing effort?

                        I dont ignore defense, as I think it helps Mauer's case, and its why I have him second over Jeter. Jeter is like 3rd to last in the AL in SS defensive win shares, so being below average doesn't help him in my calculations.
                        I'm not ignoring stats that cut against my case, I'm saying that runs created is a completely unfair stat to base the MVP on because it does not factor in defense - defense is a part of the game, it has value, and it can't be ignored. If there is a fairly good stat, such as win shares, which incorporates total contributions, and not just offensive contributions, then I'll give more weight to that stat in the MVP discussion than runs created alone. If, for example, Ortiz's win shares topped everyone in the AL, despite not playing defense, you could color me impressed and I might give more serious consideration to his candidacy. I'm not saying that a DH can't be MVP, but their hitting better be far and away better than pretty much anyone else, and enough to make up the defensive contributions of players, particularly at key defensive positions - and this superiority, if it exists, should be reflected in win shares. That's not Ortiz this year, and that's never been the case for a DH. When I think of what it would take for a DH to be MVP, I'm thinking of offensive seasons the likes of Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Foxx, and a small handful of others.

                        Win shares do not take away from players per se, but a player that is hurting his team or not contributing much to his team will be eligible for less win shares. It's kind of difficult to explain how win shares are calculated because it is a pretty complex process (that I don't fully understand). But basically, each team win counts for 3 win shares, so if a team wins 100 games, there are 300 win shares. From there, calculations are made to determine how much each player contributed to the total. These calculations are made separately for offense, defense, and pitching, and all take into account adjustments, such as for position and park (and I believe clutchness might be incorporated somehow).

                        So, for example, Ortiz, I believe, counted for 29.3 offensive win shares this year. Jeter contributed to 28, which really isn't that much of a difference, especially when you consider that one is a DH and one is a SS (and I can't stress this enough, when you're talking about value, a SS contributing just about as many offensive win shares as a DH, is more valuable to his team because of the premium on that kind of offensive production at SS). However, Ortiz only contributed to 0.1 defensively, while Jeter contributed to 4.6 defensively (Mauer contributed to 9.5). So Jeter contributed 32.6 total win shares whereas Ortiz contributed to 29.4 total win shares, meaning that Jeter was, in theory, responsible for contributing to more wins that Ortiz.

                        You might argue that the Yankees, due to winning more games, had a bigger pie to split, and thus Jeter could accumulate more win shares, but in theory, win shares are supposed to be fair regardless of how many games the team wins. A lone star player on a crappy team will still earn a lot of win shares, because he likely, as the lone star player, would have contributed to a much larger percentage of the team's total win shares, and thus would have a bigger piece of the pie for himself. On the other hand, a team that wins a lot of games, presumably has at least a few good players, so even though there is a larger pie, the invididual portions of that pie for the star players will cut into each other - the more total team win shares, the more likely that each player's contribution will become more diluted.

                        Here's what is probably a better and more helpful summary at hardballtimes.com.

                        I'm not a huge Win Shares guy, but I think it's probably a better stat than RC for MVP because it takes into account all contributions and not just offense alone. To decide the MVP on just RC, would be to ignore a whole and very significant element of the game.
                        Last edited by DoubleX; 10-05-2006, 11:09 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by DoubleX
                          I'm not a huge Win Shares guy, but I think it's probably a better stat than RC for MVP because it takes into account all contributions and not just offense alone. To decide the MVP on just RC, would be to ignore a whole and very significant element of the game.
                          Thanks for the WinShares break down, and although it seems to have its faults, it does seem to be worth something. However, you seem to think that i'm only using runs created, and although i think its a very good stat, it isn't all i'm using.

                          Everyone here LOVES ops+, but for some reason, when it comes to MVP, everyone seems to ignore it. Ortiz's is 164, where as Jeter's is (i can't find it). But regular ops, Ortiz's is 1.049 and Jeter's is .851. That a pretty big difference to ignore.

                          I know Ortiz doesnt play D and Jeter does, and if Jeter was ACTUALLY a gold glove SS, I might give it to him, but i think he's average AT BEST. Which is also why Mauer is above him, IMO.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Just for reference, here are the top 25 individual win shares for AL player for this past season as posted at hardballtimes.com.

                            1) Derek Jeter (Yankees) - 32.6
                            2) Joe Mauer (Twins) - 30.8
                            3) David Ortiz (Red Sox) - 29.4
                            4) Manny Ramirez (Red Sox) - 29.0
                            5) Justin Morneau (Twins) - 27.5
                            6) Raul Ibanez (Mariners) - 27.1
                            7) Jermaine Dye (White Sox) - 26.5
                            8) Michael Young (Rangers) - 26.2
                            9) Jim Thome (White Sox) - 25.9
                            10) Carlos Guillen (Tigers) - 25.8
                            11) Grady Sizemore (Indians) - 25.5
                            12) Vernon Wells (Blue Jays) - 25.4
                            13) Vladimir Guerrero (Angels) - 25.2
                            14) Travis Hafner (Indians) - 25.0
                            15) Johan Santana (Twins) - 24.9
                            16) Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) - 24.8
                            17) Ivan Rodriguez (Tigers) - 24.5
                            18) Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners) - 24.2
                            19) Jorge Posada (Yankees) - 23.6
                            20) Michael Cuddyer (Twins) - 23.5
                            22) Carl Crawford (Devil Rays) - 23.4
                            22) Jason Giambi (Yankees) - 23.2
                            23) Miguel Tejada (Orioles) - 23.0
                            t24) Jason Kendall (Athletics) - 22.6
                            t24) Paul Konerko (White Sox) - 22.6

                            Now of all the serious candidates (with the exception of Frank Thomas who doesn't crack the top 25, probably because of time missed), Jeter is the only one without a teammate in the top 15. Ortiz and Ramirez both represent the Sox in the top 4, Mauer and Morneau in the top 5 plus Santana in the top 15, and Dye and Thome in the top 9. Now which player would appear more valuable? A player that has another teammate that contributed about as much to their team's total wins, or the player that did not have a teammate with consummate contributions to his team's total wins? Jeter stands alone without another teammate standing out with him, while Ortiz has Manny, Mauer, Morenau, and Santana have each other, and Dye has Thome.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by EvanAparra
                              Thanks for the WinShares break down, and although it seems to have its faults, it does seem to be worth something. However, you seem to think that i'm only using runs created, and although i think its a very good stat, it isn't all i'm using.

                              Everyone here LOVES ops+, but for some reason, when it comes to MVP, everyone seems to ignore it. Ortiz's is 164, where as Jeter's is (i can't find it). But regular ops, Ortiz's is 1.049 and Jeter's is .851. That a pretty big difference to ignore.

                              I know Ortiz doesnt play D and Jeter does, and if Jeter was ACTUALLY a gold glove SS, I might give it to him, but i think he's average AT BEST. Which is also why Mauer is above him, IMO.
                              I like OPS+ and I think it's a good measure for a player's offensive dominance, but that does not necessarily equate to total value. Again, win shares can give a better picture of total value because it tries to create an appropriate balance between all facets of the game.

                              Jeter's RAW OPS this year was 0.900 (0.851 is his career OPS), and his OPS+ is 138. I agree, that is a sizeable difference between Jeter and Ortiz, but at the end of the day, MVP is the award for the player that contributes most to his team winning, and that exactly what win shares were created for. OPS+ doesn't measure value like that.

                              Win Shares certainly has its flaws, and like I said, I'm not a huge fan of it, but when you're talking about total value to a team, that's what win shares are there for.

                              Comment

                              Ad Widget

                              Collapse
                              Working...
                              X