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  • End of Money Ball Management?

    This question could easily be directed to baseball fans in general, but I prefer to bounce it around RSN.

    Given that the A's have once again crashed out of the playoffs as perennial bride's-maids, how much longer do you think the Billy Bean model will hold sway? It might be a functional approach in markets like Oakland, but does Theo really stand a chance of implementing such an approach in Boston in its pure theory? Remember that more than half of the 2004 championship team were not Money-Ball style acquisitions.

    2007 World Series Champions
    The Boston Red Sox


  • #2
    Originally posted by FlashGordon
    This question could easily be directed to baseball fans in general, but I prefer to bounce it around RSN.

    Given that the A's have once again crashed out of the playoffs as perennial bride's-maids, how much longer do you think the Billy Bean model will hold sway? It might be a functional approach in markets like Oakland, but does Theo really stand a chance of implementing such an approach in Boston in its pure theory? Remember that more than half of the 2004 championship team were not Money-Ball style acquisitions.
    I think that approach can work to a point. I think it's good in the sense that you don't get stuck with players long after their good. Really it's best to trade away a player BEFORE his numbers fall off completely, because then you can replenish your team, and keep it young. The balance is that you need to figure when a player will decline. If you trade them too early you look like a dope for a little while, and if you trade them too late, you won't get anything for them. That's why I support trading Lowell. He was great last year, and his glove is something I'll definetely miss at 3B, but He has one of his best seasons last year, and we only have 1 year left on his contract, so trading him for solid bullpen help is the smartest thing. IMO anyways.

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    • #3
      Explain your version of "Moneyball" FlashGordon ...

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      • #4
        Originally posted by TheKingofKings
        Explain your version of "Moneyball" FlashGordon ...
        Have you read the book "Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game " by Michael Lewis?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by TheKingofKings
          Explain your version of "Moneyball" FlashGordon ...
          I suppose that's a fair question because I did pose the question, but in some ways I'm looking for others who are more familiar with the approach to inform me (and others) through the discussion. I'll concede right away that I haven't read the book. Maybe one day when my own academic demands permit, I will. I'm not looking to trap anyone, so please share your viewpoints. I look forward to any further light that can be cast to help my admittedly superficial understanding.

          Most of what I understand is filtered through analyses I've encountered elsewhere. As I understand it, the moneyball approach emphasizes sabermetrics, especially the OBP, as a means for evaluating a player. I also believe it means going with the cheapest solution for staffing problems, often in the form of young, raw talent over commitment to big names with big contractual demands.

          Finally, I realize this is a bigger question for the A's, who are becoming the Braves of the AL: a team that deserves more credit than it receives because it fails to seal the deal year after year. That said, it seems that Theo is trying to fight against some heavy market forces by letting veterans walk or trading them away. By his own admission, this past year was an even more difficult one for Theo because his dedication to his own young talent was compromised by the market pressure to produce a contender. My question is whether he will find himself in this position year after year (of trying to follow the moneyball model in a market that is very impatient), or if the failure of the A's to even win the pennant (again) will force a re-evaluation of this model that has been idealized for some time now?

          2007 World Series Champions
          The Boston Red Sox

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          • #6
            Moneyball to me is nothing more than smoke and mirrors management. You can only go so far with it before it is exposed as a fraud, hence the early exits for Oakland despite the "stronger" teams.

            I believe you can have parts of moneyball work for you such as a few youngsters that you can trade away every few years for new youngerster but on the other hand you must have a core of older, reliable guys who have been around the league for a while and who may be either at or beyond their prime but still put up great numbers. I akin that philosophy to what Atlanta and St. Louis have, two teams that have had more success than Oakland and who have come as close as anyone has to winning big if not for some setbacks.
            Best posts ever:
            Originally posted by nymdan
            Too... much... math... head... hurts...
            Originally posted by RuthMayBond
            I understand, I lost all my marbles years ago

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            • #7
              Moneyball to me is nothing more than smoke and mirrors management. You can only go so far with it before it is exposed as a fraud, hence the early exits for Oakland despite the "stronger" teams.
              Moneyball to me is maximixing your return on an investment.

              Early exits and division championships are bad? They're in the playoffs almost every year, I don't know about you, But I would have liked to be rooting for my team in the ALCS this year, even if they lost.

              I akin that philosophy to what Atlanta and St. Louis have, two teams that have had more success than Oakland and who have come as close as anyone has to winning big if not for some setbacks
              Atlanta and St. Louis also have much bigger payrolls than Oakland, they are 8th and 13th in payroll, and Oakland is 21st... I think if you can take a team with that payroll to the playoffs, your team is a success, even if you dont win the WS.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by EvanAparra
                Moneyball to me is maximixing your return on an investment.
                For a quick return, yes. However investing a lump sum initially that matures over the course of a year or two can bring in a large amount to pay for future investments. It is a gamble but it does pay off well, see Detroit this year as a good case.

                Early exits and division championships are bad? They're in the playoffs almost every year, I don't know about you, But I would have liked to be rooting for my team in the ALCS this year, even if they lost.
                True, playing in the playoffs is better than none at all. However continuously doing that can alienate fans and causes frustration. Just ask Atlanta fans about that, I'm sure they wouldn't mind missing the playoffs every two or three years if it meant winning one or two of those World Series they lost...

                Atlanta and St. Louis also have much bigger payrolls than Oakland, they are 8th and 13th in payroll, and Oakland is 21st... I think if you can take a team with that payroll to the playoffs, your team is a success, even if you dont win the WS.
                But that also can isolate fans and deepen that "small market" vs. "large market" gap not to mention outrage fans who will blame the owner and or GM for being too greedy to go after players who can help them win beyond the division title. Winning is good, but an annual letdown because the team isn't good enough to win in the postseason harms the team as well.
                Best posts ever:
                Originally posted by nymdan
                Too... much... math... head... hurts...
                Originally posted by RuthMayBond
                I understand, I lost all my marbles years ago

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                • #9
                  Even though using this "Technique" or "Patern" , the A's still haven't won a world series in Billy's reign , he took over in '97 when Sandy Alderson stepped down .

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                  • #10
                    All this money ball talk really doesn't matter with the Sox. I think it's a great idea to adopt many of the ideas of it, however the Sox have enough payroll to push them over the top.

                    BTW, how did making it to the playoff's every year, and then not winning become as bad as not making it to the playoffs?? I don't understand that logic.

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                    • #11
                      Some of Oakland's draft picks in the book are now in the ML's. Despite losing some excellent free agents through the years, the A's maintain a winning record on a low budget.

                      Theo and company chose not to keep the 2004 team together which would have let the payroll skyrocket. Their budget is much higher than Oakland's, and one reason is NY is in the same division. Some of the moves seem driven by high OBP, but others do not.

                      Now that NY is building a new stadium, I wonder how long will it be before the Red Sox have to do the same? A new ballpark could draw another million fans each year and that would give the team more revenue for player's salaries.
                      "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
                      "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TonyK
                        Now that NY is building a new stadium, I wonder how long will it be before the Red Sox have to do the same? A new ballpark could draw another million fans each year and that would give the team more revenue for player's salaries.
                        Most fans like Fenway fo its tradition,they dont want a park like the Phillies.

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                        • #13
                          How is a new park doing to attract a million new fans? Unless you are going to make it a 50,000 seater.

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                          • #14
                            my problem with theo is his quick hit mentality...
                            he spent so much time and energy to develop a sound draft strategy (pitching and athletes, not just power hitters), but then trades away the future (ramirez and sanchez)...err

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Honus Wagner
                              my problem with theo is his quick hit mentality...
                              he spent so much time and energy to develop a sound draft strategy (pitching and athletes, not just power hitters), but then trades away the future (ramirez and sanchez)...err
                              The Beckett trade was a Luccino decision. Theo wasn't part of the organization at the time of the trade. Apparently, Luccino knew Theo was going to come back soon, and that he wouldn't have made that trade... So Luccino made a rushed decision and didn't think consult a lot of people that should have been consulted, just to spite Theo.

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