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How will the Sox do in '06?

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  • #16
    I'm guessing AL East is going to be a close battle between NY, Boston, and Toronto. Exactly what order they're going to finish, I'm not going to try to guess, but they will probably all be somewhere in the 90-95 win range.

    The Red Sox do have some holes, but assuming they get filled by players who are at least mediocre, the team should be pretty good offensively, and I think in terms of pitching they have actually improved, assuming the staff remains healthy. In fact, they will probably have the best staff in the division, given that the Yankees have done nothing significant to improve an already weak staff, and the fact that Toronto is relying heavily on Burnett and Halliday not getting injured and on Ryan actually being a good closer.
    "Too many pitchers, that's all, there are just too many pitchers Ten or twelve on a team. Don't see how any of them get enough work. Four starting pitchers and one relief man ought to be enough. Pitch 'em every three days and you'd find they'd get control and good, strong arms."

    -Cy Young

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Sean Casey
      The Red Sox do have some holes, but assuming they get filled by players who are at least mediocre, the team should be pretty good offensively, and I think in terms of pitching they have actually improved, assuming the staff remains healthy. In fact, they will probably have the best staff in the division, given that the Yankees have done nothing significant to improve an already weak staff, and the fact that Toronto is relying heavily on Burnett and Halliday not getting injured and on Ryan actually being a good closer.
      I think Toronto has a great argument for best rotation in the division, and can stack up with most any team in the AL.

      - Halladay is the best pitcher in the American league
      - Burnett is Toronto's version of Beckett and has actually proven that he can pitch more than 180 innings in a season (Beckett has never done so), plus Burnett has been better than Beckett away from Dolphins Stadium
      - Chacin is extremely underrated. He posted a 3.72 ERA last year, and at age 25, should only improve.
      - Lilly is a good steady and hard-throwing left-hander that slots in nicely at the backend of the rotation
      - Towers last year posted a 3.71 ERA. Not too shabby for a 5th starter.

      - Toronto also has some good young arms in the bullpen that should continue to mature, and B.J. Ryan is a better option for Toronto than whatever the Sox have at closer.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by DoubleX
        I think Toronto has a great argument for best rotation in the division, and can stack up with most any team in the AL.

        - Halladay is the best pitcher in the American league
        - Burnett is Toronto's version of Beckett and has actually proven that he can pitch more than 180 innings in a season (Beckett has never done so), plus Burnett has been better than Beckett away from Dolphins Stadium
        - Chacin is extremely underrated. He posted a 3.72 ERA last year, and at age 25, should only improve.
        - Lilly is a good steady and hard-throwing left-hander that slots in nicely at the backend of the rotation
        - Towers last year posted a 3.71 ERA. Not too shabby for a 5th starter.

        - Toronto also has some good young arms in the bullpen that should continue to mature, and B.J. Ryan is a better option for Toronto than whatever the Sox have at closer.
        To follow-up on the AL East rotations, I made these evaluations of the AL East rotations based on ESPN.Com lineup projections (as of 1/4/06) which you can find at this link.

        Below are the rotation evaluations I made. When making these rankings I considered things such as last year's performance, career performance/consistency, durability, and potential. The system is far from perfect, as some players are virtually identical, but I had to make the tough decisions and separate them causing one player to be awarded less points. Conversely, some players are so much better than the rest of the field, that separating them by only a few points doesn't do justice to the advantage. Hopefully these discrepansies somewhat balance out in the overall scheme.

        Also, if you wish to see my evaluations for all positions, follow this link. Anyway, here are my rotation and closer rankings (no bullpen since ESPN.com did not project the bullpen other than closer):

        Starting Pitcher 1
        1) Roy Halladay - Blue Jays - 10 Points
        2) Randy Johnson - Yankees - 8 Points
        3) Josh Beckett - Red Sox - 6 Points
        4) Scott Kazmir - Devil Rays - 4 Points
        5) Erik Bedard - Orioles - 2 Points

        Starting Pitcher 2
        1) Curt Schilling - Red Sox - 10 Points
        2) A.J. Burnett - Blue Jays - 8 Points
        3) Mike Mussina - Yankees - 6 Points
        4) Daniel Cabrera - Orioles - 4 Points
        5) Casey Fossum - Devil Rays - 2 Points

        Starting Pitcher 3
        1) Shawn Chacon - Yankees - 10 Points
        2) Gustavo Chacin - Blue Jays - 8 Points
        3) David Wells - Red Sox - 6 Points
        4) Rodrigo Lopez - Orioles - 4 Points
        5) Mark Hendrickson - Devil Rays - 2 Points

        Starting Pitcher 4
        1) Ted Lilly - Blue Jays - 10 Points
        2) Chien-Ming Wang - Yankees - 8 Points
        3) Tim Wakefield - Red Sox - 6 Points
        4) Bruce Chen - Orioles - 4 Points
        5) Doug Waechter - Devil Rays - 2 Points

        Starting Pitcher 5
        1) Matt Clement - Red Sox - 10 Points
        2) Josh Towers - Blue Jays - 8 Points
        3) Carl Pavano - Yankees - 6 Points
        4) Hayden Penn - Orioles - 4 Points
        5) Seth McClung - Devil Rays - 2 Points

        Closer
        1) Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 10 Points
        2) B.J. Ryan - Blue Jays - 8 Points
        3) Danys Baez - Devil Rays - 6 Points
        4) Mike Timlin - Red Sox - 4 Points
        5) Jorge Julio - Orioles - 2 Points

        Overall Rotation
        1) Blue Jays: 46
        t2) Yankees: 38
        t2) Red Sox: 38
        4) Orioles: 18
        5) Devil Rays: 12

        Comment


        • #19
          One thing, XX: The Wells Question. He has also demanded a trade and might well not be in the Sox rotation come April. In that case you have to factor in Arroyo, who while not a great pitcher by any means, is not completely embarrassing, either. Kind of a middle-of-the-road guy. How would this change in the landscape affect your calculations?

          Edit: Another thing -- what about Foulke? I see you've omitted him from your consideration of closers. It does seem strange to me that there has not been one syllable of news about him, that I've come across, since the end of the season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's out of the picture for good. Timlin is good -- has been good, shall I say -- as long as he isn't asked to work with inherited runners on base, which was a bane of his last year. But we mustn't discount Foulke until we know for sure what's going to become of him.
          Last edited by VTSoxFan; 01-07-2006, 12:49 PM.
          --Annie
          Be civil to all, sociable to many, familiar with few, friend to one, enemy to none. -Benjamin Franklin, statesman, author, and inventor (1706-1790)
          Remember Yellowdog
          ABNY

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          • #20
            Annie, you think it may be a good idea for you to spin off a separate thread on Boomer, and what he may likely bring via trade? Also, if he were partnered with another player (Shoppach, etc), if that may give back more lucrative returns.

            Your choice.
            Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
            Rest very peacefully, John “Buck” O'Neil (1911-2006) & Philip Francis “Scooter” Rizzuto (1917-2007)
            THE BROOKLYN DODGERS - 1890 thru 1957
            Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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            • #21
              DoubleX: Great work! It looks accurate and gives us a picture of where each team's starters are. Now as soon as the Red Sox hurry up and find their leadoff and #2 batters can you forecast the hitting in the AL East for us?
              "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
              "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

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              • #22
                Originally posted by VTSoxFan
                One thing, XX: The Wells Question. He has also demanded a trade and might well not be in the Sox rotation come April. In that case you have to factor in Arroyo, who while not a great pitcher by any means, is not completely embarrassing, either. Kind of a middle-of-the-road guy. How would this change in the landscape affect your calculations?

                Edit: Another thing -- what about Foulke? I see you've omitted him from your consideration of closers. It does seem strange to me that there has not been one syllable of news about him, that I've come across, since the end of the season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's out of the picture for good. Timlin is good -- has been good, shall I say -- as long as he isn't asked to work with inherited runners on base, which was a bane of his last year. But we mustn't discount Foulke until we know for sure what's going to become of him.
                All valid points, and I totally agree. However, I was strictly sticking to the ESPN.com projections. Foulke (and Papelbon) was not included in those projections, so I did not include him in the rankings. Arroyo was included, as was Jaret Wright, but only as an alternate fifth starter. The other three teams did not have this second fifth starter, so I left Arroyo and Wright out of the equation altogether.

                On the other hand, Wells was included in those projections as the third starter, so I included him in my rankings.

                As for how these changes would affect my rankings...

                If Wells is traded, the rankings would be affected depending on how the new rotation plays out. I'd actually bump Clement up to the 3rd starter and slot Arroyo (or Papelbon) into the fifth spot. In which case, the 3-5 starter rankings would probably look like this:

                Starting Pitcher 3
                1) Shawn Chacon - Yankees - 10 Points
                2) Gustavo Chacin - Blue Jays - 8 Points
                3) Matt Clement - Red Sox - 6 Points
                4) Rodrigo Lopez - Orioles - 4 Points
                5) Mark Hendrickson - Devil Rays - 2 Points

                Starting Pitcher 4
                1) Ted Lilly - Blue Jays - 10 Points
                2) Chien-Ming Wang - Yankees - 8 Points
                3) Tim Wakefield - Red Sox - 6 Points
                4) Bruce Chen - Orioles - 4 Points
                5) Doug Waechter - Devil Rays - 2 Points

                Starting Pitcher 5
                1) Josh Towers - Blue Jays - 10 Points
                2) Bronson Arroyo - Red Sox - 8 Points
                3) Carl Pavano - Yankees - 6 Points
                4) Hayden Penn - Orioles - 4 Points
                5) Seth McClung - Devil Rays - 2 Points

                The overall effect would be for the Blue Jays to gain two more overall points, while the Sox would lose two and fall into third place, two points behind the Yankees in the overall ranking.

                As for Foulke. If he slotted in instead of Timlin, I think my closer rankings would probably be the same, and he'd rank 4th behind Rivera, Ryan, and Baez. If Foulke can return to his pre-2005 form, he would probably move up to 2nd, but last year leaves a lot of question marks for Foulke, as does your point about there being so little talk about him so far this year.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by TonyK
                  DoubleX: Great work! It looks accurate and gives us a picture of where each team's starters are. Now as soon as the Red Sox hurry up and find their leadoff and #2 batters can you forecast the hitting in the AL East for us?
                  Thanks Tony. I tried to be as objective as possible, so I'm glad it came across that way. I still had some trouble ranking a few players, notably Scott Kazmir, who I think is on the verge of being a fantastic pitcher (he's only 22) and Carl Pavano. For some reason, it didn't feel right having him behind Matt Clement and Josh Towers, but sticking to my system, that's where he fell.

                  I'll start the same thread I started in the Yankees forum in which I go over the entire AL east by position according to the ESPN.com projections (though there is no bench or bullpen).

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by DoubleX
                    I think Toronto has a great argument for best rotation in the division, and can stack up with most any team in the AL.

                    - Halladay is the best pitcher in the American league
                    - Burnett is Toronto's version of Beckett and has actually proven that he can pitch more than 180 innings in a season (Beckett has never done so), plus Burnett has been better than Beckett away from Dolphins Stadium
                    - Chacin is extremely underrated. He posted a 3.72 ERA last year, and at age 25, should only improve.
                    - Lilly is a good steady and hard-throwing left-hander that slots in nicely at the backend of the rotation
                    - Towers last year posted a 3.71 ERA. Not too shabby for a 5th starter.

                    - Toronto also has some good young arms in the bullpen that should continue to mature, and B.J. Ryan is a better option for Toronto than whatever the Sox have at closer.
                    If Schilling has as good a year in 2006 as he did in 2004 (granted, it is a big if) he can probably match Halladay. As you said, Beckett and Burnett are similar, and I would say I would rather have Clement, Wakefield, and Wells/Arroyo than Lilly, Chacin, and Towers. Plus, the Red Sox also have Papelbon as a likely starter, and if he pitches like he did last year, he could have a very good season (possibly rookie of the year?). That alone gives the Red Sox six starters who are good or better, or seven if they keep Wells. Toronto might have a good rotation, but I'd take the depth that the Red Sox rotation has.
                    "Too many pitchers, that's all, there are just too many pitchers Ten or twelve on a team. Don't see how any of them get enough work. Four starting pitchers and one relief man ought to be enough. Pitch 'em every three days and you'd find they'd get control and good, strong arms."

                    -Cy Young

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      I would say I would rather have Clement, Wakefield, and Wells/Arroyo than Lilly, Chacin, and Towers.
                      While a case could be made for Clement, Wakefield, Wells and Arroyo over Lilly and Towers. I can't say that any of them are better than Chacin, who would have come closer to winning the Rookie of Year last year if it was not for Street's amazing run as a closer last year. Chacin is young and can only get better at this point. While we know what we get with Wakefield and Wells. Arroyo and Clement being question marks as to how good they really can be. Clement shown he can be a top tier pitcher during a first half of the season, if he do it for the second half, I'll give him the nod over Chacin, but until then, Chacin shown he's better than Arroyo and Clement as it stand and for the future.

                      Extremely doubtful Wells will stay in Boston. Giving the Red Sox the typical six starters that most teams have. If we want to talk about depth in the rotation, then the nod goes to New York Yankees with Wright and Small as back-up starters along with Villone and Sturtze also having the ability to start.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        2nd in AL East with 90 wins
                        AL Wild Card
                        BOS over ANA in 5 - ALDS
                        NYY over BOS in 7 - ALCS
                        ATL over NYY in 6 - WS
                        ""I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball."
                        -Pete Rose

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