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Matsuzaka in 2007

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  • Matsuzaka in 2007

    Let's say if he's indeed signed sometime by Dec. 15th, how many games do you think Daisuke Matsuzaka will win next season.

    I just don't believe Seibu is going to let him go back and lose the $51.1 million from the Red Sox, and Matsuzaka going back for another season pitching in Japan and get paid only little bit over $3 million.
    28
    Less than 10
    3.57%
    1
    11 to 13
    28.57%
    8
    14 to 16
    39.29%
    11
    17 to 19
    21.43%
    6
    Over 20
    7.14%
    2

    The poll is expired.

    Frank's Field of Dreams
    "If I build it, you'll come."

  • #2
    I put down 14-16. Before someone calls me a "typical Yankee fan" (which I wouldn't totally disagree with anyway), I think that when you have a different country, very few in Boston speak Japanese, when he needs a translator (one he'll also need to get used to), a different-sized ball, and presuming that Varitek doesn't speak Japanese (a high likelihood), I can't say he'll just walk in the front door down Yawkey Way and put up Johan Santana's 2006 numbers in his first season.

    He also doesn't know any of the batters. He may be 26, but it'll take some time for him to adopt to batters, as well as them to him. He'll be greatly scouted by other teams from Day 1, so Varitek's ability to relay scouting details about opposing batters may be put to the test, I believe.

    If he has a great 1st half, we'll have to see how well he does in his 2nd half also.
    Last edited by Mattingly; 11-27-2006, 03:44 AM.
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    • #3
      Between 14-16 and that's being hopeful. You just don't know how well he'll do coming from Japan to MLB. I do believe he'll get into double digits in the win column next season. He should be good, but not great.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Evangelion
        Between 14-16 and that's being hopeful. You just don't know how well he'll do coming from Japan to MLB. I do believe he'll get into double digits in the win column next season. He should be good, but not great.
        for 2007, you're right. and i guess you never wanna say someone SHOULD be great, just that they very well could. but he's the best pitching prospect in baseball by a big margin, so i don't think it's unreasonable to hope for him to be, one day, great.

        i voted 17-19, but it was tough. if i had to pick an individual number, i would've picked 16. but i think it's more likely for him to come over and surpass that number than it is for him to fall well short of it.

        so yeah, i went with 17-19.

        (one quick side note, there's a relatively unsubstantiated rumor that the negotiations are going very badly. but it was released by the herald, the named none of their sources, and they are the only person with the report. so it's not worth worrying about, really. i'll post a link later, but i'm in class right now and opening up another window that shouldn't be open is a risky affair right now)
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        • #5
          Originally posted by PhilWings24
          for 2007, you're right. and i guess you never wanna say someone SHOULD be great, just that they very well could. but he's the best pitching prospect in baseball by a big margin, so i don't think it's unreasonable to hope for him to be, one day, great.

          i voted 17-19, but it was tough. if i had to pick an individual number, i would've picked 16. but i think it's more likely for him to come over and surpass that number than it is for him to fall well short of it.

          so yeah, i went with 17-19.

          (one quick side note, there's a relatively unsubstantiated rumor that the negotiations are going very badly. but it was released by the herald, the named none of their sources, and they are the only person with the report. so it's not worth worrying about, really. i'll post a link later, but i'm in class right now and opening up another window that shouldn't be open is a risky affair right now)
          If he doesn't sign with Boston, his team back in Japan will have to give Boston all their money back. Let's just say, that won't sit well with them. From my point of view, the Sox got the upper hand in discussion with Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka doesn't sign with the Sox, he'll cost his former, or current team if he retuns, team 51 million dollars.

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          • #6
            I think he'll get off to a hot start next year and everyone will be jumping on the Matsuzaka bandwagon, but I think he'll cool off as the season goes on and the hitters adjust. Since 2001, he's only pitched more than 200 innings once, in 2005, and only twice in 8 seasons has he pitched more than 200 innings. So durability, like it was with Josh Beckett, is a concern. How will he hold up pitching regularly for an entire season? Will he have the stamina and are strength to still be strong down the stretch? I imagine as he gets closer to 200 innings, he'll start looking more inconsistent, at least for 2007.

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            • #7
              I went with 11-13. Tough for someone from the minors to win big their first season. Unlike most rookies he will get the opportunity for lots of starts.
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              • #8
                Ichiro 51, I'd put the number of victories somewhere between Japanese success and Taiwanese coattail riding. Wang Chien-ming is the best pitcher in the world, and let's not sully that notion with the idea that a Japanese pitcher would ever come as close to the king taiwang.
                smoker

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by riverfrontier
                  Ichiro 51, I'd put the number of victories somewhere between Japanese success and Taiwanese coattail riding. Wang Chien-ming is the best pitcher in the world, and let's not sully that notion with the idea that a Japanese pitcher would ever come as close to the king taiwang.
                  If you think Wang is the best pitcher in the world, then your out of your mind. He's good, but certainly not the best.

                  As for Monster, I put 11-13. I think that's being realistic for his first year. I hope he does better, but I think this first year will be somewhat of a transition year. I think he will still post a decent ERA, but will probably only win 11-13.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Jager
                    If you think Wang is the best pitcher in the world, then your out of your mind. He's good, but certainly not the best.

                    As for Monster, I put 11-13. I think that's being realistic for his first year. I hope he does better, but I think this first year will be somewhat of a transition year. I think he will still post a decent ERA, but will probably only win 11-13.
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                    • #11
                      I think he'll win at least 15 games. Look at Josh Beckett last year - ERA of 5.01 and he still won 16 games and he looked like a good bet for 20 wins if not for the Sox late season slump. So even if Matsuzaka is not as good as advertised next year, the Sox should still score runs and win games for their pitchers.

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                      • #12
                        Matsuzaka will win 10-12 games, if possible, if Boston trade Manny. Our offense will be that effected by dealing Manny. Lol, J.D. Drew protecting Ortiz. Honestly, I don't understand the thought process behide management if they even think Drew 1/4 the player Rameriz would be. Neither are great character type players looking at Rameriz's attitude and Drew's attitude, most recently optioning out of a contract to get even more money.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Mattingly
                          I put down 14-16. Before someone calls me a "typical Yankee fan" (which I wouldn't totally disagree with anyway), I think that when you have a different country, very few in Boston speak Japanese, when he needs a translator (one he'll also need to get used to), a different-sized ball, and presuming that Varitek doesn't speak Japanese (a high likelihood), I can't say he'll just walk in the front door down Yawkey Way and put up Johan Santana's 2006 numbers in his first season.

                          He also doesn't know any of the batters. He may be 26, but it'll take some time for him to adopt to batters, as well as them to him. He'll be greatly scouted by other teams from Day 1, so Varitek's ability to relay scouting details about opposing batters may be put to the test, I believe.

                          If he has a great 1st half, we'll have to see how well he does in his 2nd half also.
                          They might go after Tomo Ohka simply to be a translator for Matsuzaka. I'm not as concerned with the Varitek communication thing. Matsuzaka's stuff is good; he could call his own game if he has too.
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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mattingly
                            Varitek doesn't speak Japanese (a high likelihood)
                            Maybe Varitek is learning Japanese right now.
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by keepthefaith3
                              Maybe Varitek is learning Japanese right now.
                              I think with Hideo Nomo/Tomo Ohka in the past, Varitek should know some of the basic baseball terms in Japanese.

                              No doubt the Red Sox will find Matsuzaka a good translator, or vice versa, Matsuzaka or Boras go find one on their own.
                              Frank's Field of Dreams
                              "If I build it, you'll come."

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