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Who is the Ace?

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  • #16
    You guys are so high on Matsuzaka; it's not even funny.

    Remember HIDEO NOMO?

    Yah, I thought so too.

    You guys are going nuts over someone who has yet to throw a major league pitch, he might stink here for all I know.
    Oh and Matt Clement WILL be part of this rotation there is no doubt.
    Cristobal

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    • #17
      Originally posted by wilkerson_rulz-06
      You guys are so high on Matsuzaka; it's not even funny.

      Remember HIDEO NOMO?

      Yah, I thought so too.

      You guys are going nuts over someone who has yet to throw a major league pitch, he might stink here for all I know.
      Oh and Matt Clement WILL be part of this rotation there is no doubt.
      1. We are almost unanimous in picking him as our #3 starter, behind a guy with an ERA above 5.00 last year, doesn't seem like everyone is very high on him...

      I remember Hideo Nomo, he won a ROY, was pretty good the next year as well, and threw a no-hitter in a Red Sox uniform. And he wasn't as good in Japan as Matsuzaka was.

      Oh and Matt Clement will NOT be part of this rotation, there is no doubt. He is going to miss at least half of the season due to injury, with many reports have him missing the entire 2007 season.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by EvanAparra
        Oh and Matt Clement will NOT be part of this rotation, there is no doubt. He is going to miss at least half of the season due to injury, with many reports have him missing the entire 2007 season.
        I beleive Clement's career is pretty much over. There is no room for him here, and I doubt any Big League team will want a fragile pitcher who wets himself whenever a hit ball comes close to him.
        "He studied hitting like a broker studies the stock market, how a scribe studies the scriptures" - Carl Yastrzemski on Ted Williams

        "The greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history has done it again! Big Papi!" - Don Orsillo's call of Ortiz's walk-off single

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        • #19
          Originally posted by keepthefaith3
          I beleive Clement's career is pretty much over. There is no room for him here, and I doubt any Big League team will want a fragile pitcher who wets himself whenever a hit ball comes close to him.
          Not his fault Carl Crawford lined a ball off of his skull. I'd wet myself as well.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Evangelion
            I have to disagree. Schilling the best pitcher of this staff, even at his current age. Matsuzaka got a lot of talent, but it's like saying Phillip Hughes the best pitch of the Yankee rotation when he's called up without throwing a pitcher.
            what would be wrong with that?

            the translations of schil's numbers are slightly worse than matsuzaka, and its indisputable matsuzaka has more talent of the 2.

            i've always believed that being "proven" might be the most oervalued commodity in sports (i happen to think it means more in baseball than any other sport, but that even there it barely means anything). when a prospect comes up and flops, people go "ya just can't trust em til they're proven." on the other hand, when an FA signed to a huge deal flops, they say he's failed to meet expectations and leave it at that.

            whether they were in america or not, matsuzaka's last 3 seasons have been about as impressive as schilling, and he's got 10 times the upside.

            Originally posted by keepthefaith3
            No. We can't have someone that has never thrown a pitch in the MLB as our ace. I can see Dice-K as a #2 or 3, but not an ace.
            of the people that have truly analyzed him, most of them have him as a 1, and i'm yet to hear a single person have him as a 3.

            Originally posted by Mattingly
            I'd agree with this also. Mats will have to prove what he's got against MLB hitters, including in this league..
            the 1 chance he's had against the MLB players he absolutely dominated them (WBC), and the feeling from remarks that MLB players made about him is that it wasn't a case of him getting lucky. they were all saying they were lost against him, not that he was pitching average baseball and they were failing to execute.

            Originally posted by Mattingly
            I'm just as curious to see what Papelbon can do as a starter as I am about Matsuzaka.
            personally, i'm much more curious about paps, and considerably less optimistic (i see an ERA of 4.30 from paps, an ERA of 3.90 ish from matsuzaka). the difference between getting a hitter out from the pen and getting a hitter out as a starter is a much bigger deal than the difference between getting an asian hitter out and a dominican hitter out.

            Originally posted by wilkerson_rulz-06
            You guys are so high on Matsuzaka; it's not even funny.

            Remember HIDEO NOMO?

            Yah, I thought so too.

            You guys are going nuts over someone who has yet to throw a major league pitch, he might stink here for all I know.
            Oh and Matt Clement WILL be part of this rotation there is no doubt.
            you've always struck me as a particularly smart fan, so i'm almost wondering if this is a joke.

            no one but me is high on matsuzka. granted, i am very high, and i feel pretty confident in the fact my highness is justified. but it really is only me.

            second, hideo nomo was good for the red sox, and anyone who spent a second to look at his numbers (instead of all this borderline racist stuff i'm hearing about japanese pitchers being inherently prone to flopping, instead of explaining their difficulty in the bigs as a product of faulty talent evaluation bad bad luck), you'd realize hideo nomo was not even CLOSE to the pitcher matsuzaka is. not even close.

            and last i heard clement was aiming to start his rehab stint in september of 2007. so there's a ton of doubt there.
            Gelatin Fernandalism

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            • #21
              To explain my highness (parenthetical and italit statements are things i wrote in)...

              From Baseball Prospectus/Sports Illustrated's Clay Davenport http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5699

              Beyond the Clemens comparison (his most comprable player, over the last 4 years) the next most-comparable pitchers over the last four years include Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy. In other words, a short list that includes most of the true right-handed rotation aces in the game over the past four seasons.

              Starting pitchers with a better translated four-year NERA (defensively neutral era, i believe. not sure) than Matsuzaka's 3.37: Johan Santana 2.84, Roger Clemens 3.11, Roy Halladay 3.21, Roy Oswalt 3.29, Chris Carpenter 3.31, Pedro Martinez 3.35.

              In PERA (era based solely on peripherals), Matsuzaka has a 3.41. Beaten by: Santana 3.02, Curt Schilling 3.23, Martinez 3.26, Clemens 3.30, Ben Sheets 3.32, Halladay 3.40, Oswalt 3.40.

              The only pitcher I would say he seems to be clearly behind is Santana. I think Clemens has been ahead, but I'm not sure you can continue to project that at a coming age-44 season. It's also safe to put Halladay and Oswalt ahead too, although the difference there is slim.

              --Clay Davenport
              Baseball Prospectus'/Sports Illustrated's Christina Kahrl

              Beyond the stathead-minded reasons for optimism, there's also the basic scouting report. Matsuzaka throws heat into the mid-90s with good sinking action, outstanding placement and running it in at will. He supports those varied flavors of gas with a plus curve, a plus slider and a plus change. It's the assortment of a pitcher who should be perfectly suited to step into a rotation as a true staff ace. Who couldn't use one of those? There aren't 30 "number ones" in baseball in the first place, so the question is who has the need and the wherewithal. Despite the cloak of secrecy with which the industry is trying to keep over this process, some teams have been publicly speculated to be willing to play these particular stakes, with the New Yorks, the Red Sox and the Rangers all likely to be involved, and others besides.
              A projection from Nate Silver's PECOTA system, a system deemed the most accurate projection system available by Baseball-Think Factory

              G GS IP H BB SO HR ERA VORP WARP
              29 29 187.3 188 52 167 19 4.01 35.8 5.6

              These are very good numbers. I’m sure that some of you would like to see an ERA in the 3’s, but a 4.01 number for a starting pitcher in Fenway Park, American League circa 2007 is quite an accomplishment. PECOTA hedges a little bit on his innings pitched, but that’s appropriate given the time Matsuzaka missed last year.
              Days later, the same man responded to e-mails that that seemed like a very pessimistic projection with this..

              Here is how PECOTA compares Matsuzaka’s projected ERA to a handful of other star pitchers, projected as members of the 2007 Red Sox.

              Chris Carpenter, 3.95
              Daisuke Matsuzaka, 4.01
              Carlos Zambrano, 4.08
              Roy Oswalt, 4.20
              Barry Zito, 4.96

              Matsuzaka is almost certainly an All-Star caliber pitcher, and he might be a HOF-caliber pitcher. He’s going to live up to the hype.
              now i know that anytime you have comparisons this lofty with a pitcher yet to play in the majors (cus like i said, while i think it is overstated drastically, there is certainly SOME value to proving your worth against major league competition), you need to hedge your bets a little.

              and really, i want people as a whole to stay as down on him as possible, because once he's annointed as a sure thing all-star, it means there's little room for him to exceed the expectations, and lots of roomfor him to fall short. and although i pay no attention to mainstream baseball media in the ways of forming an opinion, i like watching the 12:30 AM baseball tonight during the summer, and it's gonna be annoying if every show is about matsuzaka being a flop.

              but, either way, i say schilling and matsuzaka are VERY evenly matched pitchers, but schilling's pushin 40 and has shown signs, though they are just early signs, of aging, and matsuzaka is a 26 year old with outstanding potential. that's the only reason i give mats the edge.
              Gelatin Fernandalism

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              • #22
                Originally posted by wilkerson_rulz-06
                You guys are so high on Matsuzaka; it's not even funny.

                Remember HIDEO NOMO?
                Yeah, I do...13-10 with a 4.50 ERA, but he did lead the AL in Ks.

                Oh, I forgot..he no-hit the Orioles that year, too...

                Typical Duquette fertilizer-for-brains move to not re-sign him...
                sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by EvanAparra
                  Not his fault Carl Crawford lined a ball off of his skull. I'd wet myself as well.
                  I was at that game..all of us in Section 141 damn near had heart attacks. We could hear it out there
                  sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

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