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In 9 Years: What will Ortiz accomplish?

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  • In 9 Years: What will Ortiz accomplish?

    When Papi turns 40 in 9 years, what will he have done those 9 years? What kind of stats will he have put up by then? Will people consider him a Hall of Famer? What do you think? My answers:

    500 homers
    2700 hits
    1900 RBIs

    Merely based on his stats already and his averages:

    Code:
      Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+  TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
    +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
     1997 21 MIN AL  15   49   10   16   3  0   1    6   0  0   2  19  .327  .353  .449  107   22   0   0   0   0   1
     1998 22 MIN AL  86  278   47   77  20  0   9   46   1  0  39  72  .277  .371  .446  112  124   0   4   3   5   8
     1999 23 MIN AL  10   20    1    0   0  0   0    0   0  0   5  12  .000  .200  .000  -43    0   0   0   0   0   2
     2000 24 MIN AL 130  415   59  117  36  1  10   63   1  0  57  81  .282  .364  .446   98  185   0   6   2   0  13
     2001 25 MIN AL  89  303   46   71  17  1  18   48   1  0  40  68  .234  .324  .475  107  144   1   2   8   1   6
     2002 26 MIN AL 125  412   52  112  32  1  20   75   1  2  43  87  .272  .339  .500  122  206   0   8   0   3   5
     2003 27 BOS AL 128  448   79  129  39  2  31  101   0  0  58  83  .288  .369  .592  144  265   0   2   8   1   9 
     2004 28 BOS AL 150  582   94  175  47  3  41  139   0  0  75 133  .301  .380  .603  145  351   0   8   8   4  12 
     2005 29 BOS AL 159  601  119  180  40  1  47  148   1  0 102 124  .300  .397  .604  161  363   0   9   9   1  13 
     2006 30 BOS AL 151  558  115  160  29  2  54  137   1  0 119 117  .287  .413  .636  164  355   0   5  23   4  12 
    +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
     10 Seasons    1043 3666  622 1037 263 11 231  763   6  2 540 796  .283  .374  .550  135 2015   1  44  61  19  81
    +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
     162 Game Avg        569   97  161  41  2  36  119   1  0  84 124  .283  .374  .550  135  313   0   7   9   3  13
     Career High    159  601  119  180  47  3  54  148   1  2 119 133  .301  .413  .636  164  363   1   9  23   5  13
    "He studied hitting like a broker studies the stock market, how a scribe studies the scriptures" - Carl Yastrzemski on Ted Williams

    "The greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history has done it again! Big Papi!" - Don Orsillo's call of Ortiz's walk-off single

  • #2
    Originally posted by keepthefaith3

    500 homers
    2700 hits
    1900 RBIs
    I agree with that, maybe 450-500 HRs, but your predictions should be close 9 years from now, as long as he stays healthy. If Ortiz was drafted by the Red Sox instead of the Twins, I think he might of been a top 25 player of all-time by the time his playing days are over, but I'm not sure now.

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    • #3
      I'd guess somewhere near 425 HRs, 2200 Hits, and 1350 RBIs. And no, I dont think he will be considered a HOFer. I think he COULD be a HOFer, if he exceeds my expectations and is closer to where you predict. But those are going to be VERY hard numbers to get for him.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by EvanAparra
        I'd guess somewhere near 425 HRs, 2200 Hits, and 1350 RBIs. And no, I dont think he will be considered a HOFer. I think he COULD be a HOFer, if he exceeds my expectations and is closer to where you predict. But those are going to be VERY hard numbers to get for him.
        Agreed.

        400-450 HR, 2100-2200 H and 1300-1400 RBI are the current expectation I got for Ortiz. I don't think he'll remain 280.-290./40-45/100-120 player during his later years of his career since the age would likely take a toll on him.

        Though, I hope I'm wrong. I won't mind Ortiz in the Hall. Here's hoping he exceed my expectation, too.

        Comment


        • #5
          I have a feeling he'll break down long before then and will come short of a lot of these projected numbers. Players with his body frame typically don't age well - Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Boog Powell. Of course, being a fulltime DH should help him, but at his size, things will begin to catch up with him likely sooner than later.

          If I had to make some projections for Ortiz, I'd say 400 homeruns and 1800-2000 hits, but I even think these could be on the high side. I'd say there's very little chance he gets to 2700 hits as predicted in the first post in this thread. He would need 1663 hits to do that, and with his decline coming up and given that he's never had more than 180 hits in a year (and had just 160 last year in what was arguably his best season), I don't see him coming anywere close to 2700 hits.

          Comment


          • #6
            My guess would be:

            400 HR's
            1800 Hits
            1300 RBI

            It would be hard to say if he would make it in, but the WS MVP surely won't hurt. It would definately draw many votes, for HoF, I would personally say yes.

            Comment


            • #7
              It's difficult to speculate how Papi will do in the next nine years, if he plays till he's 40. And if he stays healthy.

              But I'm optomistic and I think he'll have some good number in the next 5 to 7 years, after that, who knows.

              But my guess is 400 to 500 HR's, 1800 to 1900 hits and 1300 to 1400 RBI's.

              HOF, a distinct possibility imo, if he gets 500 HR's, some extra awards like MVP would help too.

              Comment


              • #8
                Right now, it doesn't seem likely that Edgar Martinez will be making into the Hall, and Ortiz still has a long, long way to go to having a career comparable to Martinez. I also have a feeling that Frank Thomas will not get as much support as he should when Hall of Fame voting comes around. Thomas is unquestionably a Hall of Famer, IMO, but people (i.e. writers) don't seem to treat him as such, but rather seem to treat him as a possible Hall of Famer. I do think Thomas will get in though and I don't think Martinez will, at least not until he's been on the ballot for a number of years first. Either way, Ortiz has a long way to go to catching up with these guys, and given his frame, which is the kind of body that can really speed up a player's decline and result in persistent injuries, I don't think Ortiz will put up a career on the level of Martinez or Thomas. Does Ortiz have some more good years left in him? I think so, but it will take more than just a few more good years to get into Hall of Fame territory, IMO. Look at Jim Rice - he was perceived as the most dangerous hitter in the American League for near a decade, won an MVP and factored into a number of batting title races, and he's still lingering on the ballot after 13 years.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by DoubleX
                  I have a feeling he'll break down long before then and will come short of a lot of these projected numbers. Players with his body frame typically don't age well - Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Boog Powell. Of course, being a fulltime DH should help him, but at his size, things will begin to catch up with him likely sooner than later.
                  I agree that due to body type, he has a chance to break down sooner than some.

                  Of course, I think a big misconceptions among fans is that "most" players play until they're 40 or older, when in actuality, that's still very much the exception, not the rule.

                  If he has a normal decline, Ortiz probably has 6 seasons left, not 9. If due to his body type, he breaks down sooner, he'll have even fewer. In that time, it'd be near impossible for him to put up the numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, unless he's hitting 50+ HR EVERY year, which is highly unlikely.
                  Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mike D.
                    I agree that due to body type, he has a chance to break down sooner than some.

                    Of course, I think a big misconceptions among fans is that "most" players play until they're 40 or older, when in actuality, that's still very much the exception, not the rule.

                    If he has a normal decline, Ortiz probably has 6 seasons left, not 9. If due to his body type, he breaks down sooner, he'll have even fewer. In that time, it'd be near impossible for him to put up the numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, unless he's hitting 50+ HR EVERY year, which is highly unlikely.
                    Good point - even if he was a bastion of physical fitness, the odds would still be against him being healthy and productive until age 40. I can see Ortiz hanging around until his late 30s, but I can't see him being the great hitter he is now for more than a few more years. Perhaps through age 35, but I also imagine that at some point between now and then, injuries will sideline and perhaps slow him down a little.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by EvanAparra
                      I'd guess somewhere near 425 HRs, 2200 Hits, and 1350 RBIs. And no, I dont think he will be considered a HOFer. I think he COULD be a HOFer, if he exceeds my expectations and is closer to where you predict. But those are going to be VERY hard numbers to get for him.
                      Yeah he's kind of big, but he doesn't move around a whole lot so his decline won't be devastating, as in he won't just hit the wall, however still poorly. He'll probably age poorly due to his size, being a DH will hurt him, however the memories that he created in my mind should outweigh the disadvantage that DHing caused him. HoFer? Probably not, if he gets to 500 HRs the BBWAA will say that since he DHed he should have hit more, or that in the context of the era he contributed offense that wasn't unusual for the era (due to steroids) so he needed to do more, I'd disagree with that but it's their hall. So I'm not sure, his size could hurt him, but I think he'll get around the numbers that Evan predicted.
                      "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

                      "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

                      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by DoubleX
                        Right now, it doesn't seem likely that Edgar Martinez will be making into the Hall, and Ortiz still has a long, long way to go to having a career comparable to Martinez. I also have a feeling that Frank Thomas will not get as much support as he should when Hall of Fame voting comes around. Thomas is unquestionably a Hall of Famer, IMO, but people (i.e. writers) don't seem to treat him as such, but rather seem to treat him as a possible Hall of Famer. I do think Thomas will get in though and I don't think Martinez will, at least not until he's been on the ballot for a number of years first. Either way, Ortiz has a long way to go to catching up with these guys, and given his frame, which is the kind of body that can really speed up a player's decline and result in persistent injuries, I don't think Ortiz will put up a career on the level of Martinez or Thomas. Does Ortiz have some more good years left in him? I think so, but it will take more than just a few more good years to get into Hall of Fame territory, IMO. Look at Jim Rice - he was perceived as the most dangerous hitter in the American League for near a decade, won an MVP and factored into a number of batting title races, and he's still lingering on the ballot after 13 years.
                        Hurt will get in, he atleast played first base for a considerable amount of time, and he'll get around 550 HRs, plus a high BA and high rate numbers.
                        "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

                        "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

                        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Just my opinion, but I think Ortiz has 4-5 really good years left in front of him until his production starts to wane. If he is able to keep up the pace he has set for himself in those years, then some people could make a case for him making the hall. I personally don't think he will end up in the hall, but you never know. Such things are out of my hands
                          Like Maple Syrup, Canada's evil oozes over the United States.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Chris from NY
                            Just my opinion, but I think Ortiz has 4-5 really good years left in front of him until his production starts to wane. If he is able to keep up the pace he has set for himself in those years, then some people could make a case for him making the hall. I personally don't think he will end up in the hall, but you never know. Such things are out of my hands
                            Yeah, I think 4 to 5 very good years is a good possibility. But even that probably wont be enough.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan
                              Hurt will get in, he atleast played first base for a considerable amount of time, and he'll get around 550 HRs, plus a high BA and high rate numbers.
                              I think he'll get in as well, but I don't think he (or Bagwell) will get the support that he'll deserves from the writers and wouldn't be at all surprised if he had to wait a year or two, especially depending on who else is in the incomign class with him, as he could get overshadowed.

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