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In 9 Years: What will Ortiz accomplish?

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  • #16
    I agree 4 to 5 good productive years, followed by some so-so years. I don't know how long he'll play, but I can see him playing at least 7 more years, providing he stays healthy.

    Assuming he does play till he's 40, which I have to admit will be a stretch, but let's say his HR production dips by 5 on average each year. He currently has 231 career HR's, so if he drops 5 each year for the next nine years he will have hit 501 career HR's.

    2007 50 HR's
    2008 45 HR's
    2009 40 HR's
    2010 35 HR's
    2011 30 HR's
    2012 25 HR's
    2013 20 HR's
    2014 15 HR's
    2015 10 HR's

    Total = 270 HR's + 231 = 501

    Another thing to consider is that he currently has Manny protecting him, so they do pitch to Big Papi, but how long before Manny is gone, plus Manny in a few years may not be the fearsome hitter he is now, and unless the Sox get another slugger for protection of Big Papi, he may not produce as many HR's as he has in recent (the past few) years.

    But I'm fairly optomistic that Papi will produce 45 to 55 HR's the next few years so I think 450 to 500 career Hr's is very possible. Which will give him a chance at the HOF imo.
    Last edited by Dogdaze; 01-14-2007, 10:18 AM.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Dogdaze
      Assuming he does play till he's 40, which I have to admit will be a stretch, but let's say his HR production dips by 5 on average each year. He currently has 231 career HR's, so if he drops 5 each year for the next nine years he will have hit 501 career HR's.

      2007 50 HR's
      2008 45 HR's
      2009 40 HR's
      2010 35 HR's
      2011 30 HR's
      2012 25 HR's
      2013 20 HR's
      2014 15 HR's
      2015 10 HR's

      Total = 270 HR's + 231 = 501

      Another thing to consider is that he currently has Manny protecting him, so they do pitch to Big Papi, but how long before Manny is gone, plus Manny in a few years may not be the fearsome hitter he is now, and unless the Sox get another slugger for protection of Big Papi, he may not produce as many HR's as he has in recent (the past few) years.

      But I'm fairly optomistic that Papi will produce 45 to 55 HR's the next few years so I think 450 to 500 career Hr's is very possible. Which will give him a change at the HOF imo.
      That's a convenient decline .

      I actually don't believe Ortiz will still be playing in 2015, though I do think Ortiz, if healthy, can hit 40+ homeruns for the next 3 years or so.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by DoubleX
        That's a convenient decline .

        I actually don't believe Ortiz will still be playing in 2015, though I do think Ortiz, if healthy, can hit 40+ homeruns for the next 3 years or so.
        Well, as I said it will be a stretch, he will have to stay healthy, and have some protection, but I believe Papi will be hitting HR's in the 45 to 55 range in the next 4 to 5 years. After that who knows, maybe 30 to 35 per year. All I'm saying is it's possible, and I'm optomistic that he can do it!

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Dogdaze
          Well, as I said it will be a stretch, he will have to stay healthy, and have some protection, but I believe Papi will be hitting HR's in the 45 to 55 range in the next 4 to 5 years. After that who knows, maybe 30 to 35 per year. All I'm saying is it's possible, and I'm optomistic that he can do it!
          It's certainly possible, but very few players have been able to put together stretches like that.

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