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In 9 Years: What will Ortiz accomplish?

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  • DoubleX
    replied
    Originally posted by Dogdaze
    Well, as I said it will be a stretch, he will have to stay healthy, and have some protection, but I believe Papi will be hitting HR's in the 45 to 55 range in the next 4 to 5 years. After that who knows, maybe 30 to 35 per year. All I'm saying is it's possible, and I'm optomistic that he can do it!
    It's certainly possible, but very few players have been able to put together stretches like that.

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  • Dogdaze
    replied
    Originally posted by DoubleX
    That's a convenient decline .

    I actually don't believe Ortiz will still be playing in 2015, though I do think Ortiz, if healthy, can hit 40+ homeruns for the next 3 years or so.
    Well, as I said it will be a stretch, he will have to stay healthy, and have some protection, but I believe Papi will be hitting HR's in the 45 to 55 range in the next 4 to 5 years. After that who knows, maybe 30 to 35 per year. All I'm saying is it's possible, and I'm optomistic that he can do it!

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  • DoubleX
    replied
    Originally posted by Dogdaze
    Assuming he does play till he's 40, which I have to admit will be a stretch, but let's say his HR production dips by 5 on average each year. He currently has 231 career HR's, so if he drops 5 each year for the next nine years he will have hit 501 career HR's.

    2007 50 HR's
    2008 45 HR's
    2009 40 HR's
    2010 35 HR's
    2011 30 HR's
    2012 25 HR's
    2013 20 HR's
    2014 15 HR's
    2015 10 HR's

    Total = 270 HR's + 231 = 501

    Another thing to consider is that he currently has Manny protecting him, so they do pitch to Big Papi, but how long before Manny is gone, plus Manny in a few years may not be the fearsome hitter he is now, and unless the Sox get another slugger for protection of Big Papi, he may not produce as many HR's as he has in recent (the past few) years.

    But I'm fairly optomistic that Papi will produce 45 to 55 HR's the next few years so I think 450 to 500 career Hr's is very possible. Which will give him a change at the HOF imo.
    That's a convenient decline .

    I actually don't believe Ortiz will still be playing in 2015, though I do think Ortiz, if healthy, can hit 40+ homeruns for the next 3 years or so.

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  • Dogdaze
    replied
    I agree 4 to 5 good productive years, followed by some so-so years. I don't know how long he'll play, but I can see him playing at least 7 more years, providing he stays healthy.

    Assuming he does play till he's 40, which I have to admit will be a stretch, but let's say his HR production dips by 5 on average each year. He currently has 231 career HR's, so if he drops 5 each year for the next nine years he will have hit 501 career HR's.

    2007 50 HR's
    2008 45 HR's
    2009 40 HR's
    2010 35 HR's
    2011 30 HR's
    2012 25 HR's
    2013 20 HR's
    2014 15 HR's
    2015 10 HR's

    Total = 270 HR's + 231 = 501

    Another thing to consider is that he currently has Manny protecting him, so they do pitch to Big Papi, but how long before Manny is gone, plus Manny in a few years may not be the fearsome hitter he is now, and unless the Sox get another slugger for protection of Big Papi, he may not produce as many HR's as he has in recent (the past few) years.

    But I'm fairly optomistic that Papi will produce 45 to 55 HR's the next few years so I think 450 to 500 career Hr's is very possible. Which will give him a chance at the HOF imo.
    Last edited by Dogdaze; 01-14-2007, 10:18 AM.

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  • DoubleX
    replied
    Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan
    Hurt will get in, he atleast played first base for a considerable amount of time, and he'll get around 550 HRs, plus a high BA and high rate numbers.
    I think he'll get in as well, but I don't think he (or Bagwell) will get the support that he'll deserves from the writers and wouldn't be at all surprised if he had to wait a year or two, especially depending on who else is in the incomign class with him, as he could get overshadowed.

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  • EvanAparra
    replied
    Originally posted by Chris from NY
    Just my opinion, but I think Ortiz has 4-5 really good years left in front of him until his production starts to wane. If he is able to keep up the pace he has set for himself in those years, then some people could make a case for him making the hall. I personally don't think he will end up in the hall, but you never know. Such things are out of my hands
    Yeah, I think 4 to 5 very good years is a good possibility. But even that probably wont be enough.

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  • Chris from NY
    replied
    Just my opinion, but I think Ortiz has 4-5 really good years left in front of him until his production starts to wane. If he is able to keep up the pace he has set for himself in those years, then some people could make a case for him making the hall. I personally don't think he will end up in the hall, but you never know. Such things are out of my hands

    Leave a comment:


  • ChrisLDuncan
    replied
    Originally posted by DoubleX
    Right now, it doesn't seem likely that Edgar Martinez will be making into the Hall, and Ortiz still has a long, long way to go to having a career comparable to Martinez. I also have a feeling that Frank Thomas will not get as much support as he should when Hall of Fame voting comes around. Thomas is unquestionably a Hall of Famer, IMO, but people (i.e. writers) don't seem to treat him as such, but rather seem to treat him as a possible Hall of Famer. I do think Thomas will get in though and I don't think Martinez will, at least not until he's been on the ballot for a number of years first. Either way, Ortiz has a long way to go to catching up with these guys, and given his frame, which is the kind of body that can really speed up a player's decline and result in persistent injuries, I don't think Ortiz will put up a career on the level of Martinez or Thomas. Does Ortiz have some more good years left in him? I think so, but it will take more than just a few more good years to get into Hall of Fame territory, IMO. Look at Jim Rice - he was perceived as the most dangerous hitter in the American League for near a decade, won an MVP and factored into a number of batting title races, and he's still lingering on the ballot after 13 years.
    Hurt will get in, he atleast played first base for a considerable amount of time, and he'll get around 550 HRs, plus a high BA and high rate numbers.

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  • ChrisLDuncan
    replied
    Originally posted by EvanAparra
    I'd guess somewhere near 425 HRs, 2200 Hits, and 1350 RBIs. And no, I dont think he will be considered a HOFer. I think he COULD be a HOFer, if he exceeds my expectations and is closer to where you predict. But those are going to be VERY hard numbers to get for him.
    Yeah he's kind of big, but he doesn't move around a whole lot so his decline won't be devastating, as in he won't just hit the wall, however still poorly. He'll probably age poorly due to his size, being a DH will hurt him, however the memories that he created in my mind should outweigh the disadvantage that DHing caused him. HoFer? Probably not, if he gets to 500 HRs the BBWAA will say that since he DHed he should have hit more, or that in the context of the era he contributed offense that wasn't unusual for the era (due to steroids) so he needed to do more, I'd disagree with that but it's their hall. So I'm not sure, his size could hurt him, but I think he'll get around the numbers that Evan predicted.

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  • DoubleX
    replied
    Originally posted by Mike D.
    I agree that due to body type, he has a chance to break down sooner than some.

    Of course, I think a big misconceptions among fans is that "most" players play until they're 40 or older, when in actuality, that's still very much the exception, not the rule.

    If he has a normal decline, Ortiz probably has 6 seasons left, not 9. If due to his body type, he breaks down sooner, he'll have even fewer. In that time, it'd be near impossible for him to put up the numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, unless he's hitting 50+ HR EVERY year, which is highly unlikely.
    Good point - even if he was a bastion of physical fitness, the odds would still be against him being healthy and productive until age 40. I can see Ortiz hanging around until his late 30s, but I can't see him being the great hitter he is now for more than a few more years. Perhaps through age 35, but I also imagine that at some point between now and then, injuries will sideline and perhaps slow him down a little.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mike D.
    replied
    Originally posted by DoubleX
    I have a feeling he'll break down long before then and will come short of a lot of these projected numbers. Players with his body frame typically don't age well - Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Boog Powell. Of course, being a fulltime DH should help him, but at his size, things will begin to catch up with him likely sooner than later.
    I agree that due to body type, he has a chance to break down sooner than some.

    Of course, I think a big misconceptions among fans is that "most" players play until they're 40 or older, when in actuality, that's still very much the exception, not the rule.

    If he has a normal decline, Ortiz probably has 6 seasons left, not 9. If due to his body type, he breaks down sooner, he'll have even fewer. In that time, it'd be near impossible for him to put up the numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, unless he's hitting 50+ HR EVERY year, which is highly unlikely.

    Leave a comment:


  • DoubleX
    replied
    Right now, it doesn't seem likely that Edgar Martinez will be making into the Hall, and Ortiz still has a long, long way to go to having a career comparable to Martinez. I also have a feeling that Frank Thomas will not get as much support as he should when Hall of Fame voting comes around. Thomas is unquestionably a Hall of Famer, IMO, but people (i.e. writers) don't seem to treat him as such, but rather seem to treat him as a possible Hall of Famer. I do think Thomas will get in though and I don't think Martinez will, at least not until he's been on the ballot for a number of years first. Either way, Ortiz has a long way to go to catching up with these guys, and given his frame, which is the kind of body that can really speed up a player's decline and result in persistent injuries, I don't think Ortiz will put up a career on the level of Martinez or Thomas. Does Ortiz have some more good years left in him? I think so, but it will take more than just a few more good years to get into Hall of Fame territory, IMO. Look at Jim Rice - he was perceived as the most dangerous hitter in the American League for near a decade, won an MVP and factored into a number of batting title races, and he's still lingering on the ballot after 13 years.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dogdaze
    replied
    It's difficult to speculate how Papi will do in the next nine years, if he plays till he's 40. And if he stays healthy.

    But I'm optomistic and I think he'll have some good number in the next 5 to 7 years, after that, who knows.

    But my guess is 400 to 500 HR's, 1800 to 1900 hits and 1300 to 1400 RBI's.

    HOF, a distinct possibility imo, if he gets 500 HR's, some extra awards like MVP would help too.

    Leave a comment:


  • Charger567
    replied
    My guess would be:

    400 HR's
    1800 Hits
    1300 RBI

    It would be hard to say if he would make it in, but the WS MVP surely won't hurt. It would definately draw many votes, for HoF, I would personally say yes.

    Leave a comment:


  • DoubleX
    replied
    I have a feeling he'll break down long before then and will come short of a lot of these projected numbers. Players with his body frame typically don't age well - Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Boog Powell. Of course, being a fulltime DH should help him, but at his size, things will begin to catch up with him likely sooner than later.

    If I had to make some projections for Ortiz, I'd say 400 homeruns and 1800-2000 hits, but I even think these could be on the high side. I'd say there's very little chance he gets to 2700 hits as predicted in the first post in this thread. He would need 1663 hits to do that, and with his decline coming up and given that he's never had more than 180 hits in a year (and had just 160 last year in what was arguably his best season), I don't see him coming anywere close to 2700 hits.

    Leave a comment:

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