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  • Manny 3rd, Papi 4th

    I'm sure this has been discussed before, but, does anybody else feel that Manny should bat 3rd and Ortiz 4th? Manny is a little better OBP guy, Papi has a little more power...and, either one of them should have plenty of "protection" in the strong 2007 lineup that the Bosox should have.
    This is what was done in 2004, and it seemed to work then. I guess Papi-Manny-Drew gives you a nice L-R-L, but maybe Drew should bat 2nd and WMP could bat 5th? Wait, how do you get JD and WMP in the lineup at the same time...
    Well, just wondering if anybody else is thinking about this.
    "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

  • #2
    Not this season. It hurts the opposing team more to have Ortiz LHH, Manny RHH, and Drew LHH the lefty righty left combo hurts more, but on Drews days off when Wily Mo is in the lineup I would be opposed to hitting Manny, Ortiz, Pena. I don't think they will do that, but oh well.

    Comment


    • #3
      Count me in as one of those "batting order is overrated" type people. I just don't think swapping them in the batting order can possibly add anything to the already extreemly potent offense. Considering they're both doing just fine as they are, I'd say keep 'em where they are.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Sankhara-dukkha
        Count me in as one of those "batting order is overrated" type people. I just don't think swapping them in the batting order can possibly add anything to the already extreemly potent offense. Considering they're both doing just fine as they are, I'd say keep 'em where they are.
        I hear you, any advantage or disadvantage would probably be slight. Guess that Bill James used to advocate having the 4 and 5 hitters be good OBP guys because they tended to lead off innings somewhat more often. But, he also reported that scrambling the batting orders made next to no difference in his computer sims.
        I just remember that there was a huge controversy about how these two would be ordered before the 2005 season, and Manny wasn't happy about hitting cleanup. They both wanted to hit 3rd, maybe because that is the traditional "best all around hitter" spot. I felt then that they should have stuck with the '04 order.
        "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

        Comment


        • #5
          According to Bill James' 07 projections (from the Handbook) and David Pinto's lineup analysis program (based on the work of Cyril Morong, Ken Arneson, and Ryan Armbrust) this would be the ideal Sox lineup:


          Youkilis
          Manny
          Lowell
          Drew
          Papi
          Coco
          Pedroia
          'Tek
          Lugo

          Of course, that's based on OBP/SLG regression analysis, and isn't what is considered "practical."

          I think that the reason Manny bats behind Papi is because Manny is "protecting" him, so to speak. Manny is certainly the better hitter, which forces pitchers to throw more aggressively to Papi and maybe put up a few right-field home run balls.

          Originally posted by sankhara-dukkha
          Count me in as one of those "batting order is overrated" type people. I just don't think swapping them in the batting order can possibly add anything to the already extreemly potent offense.
          And that's the truth: a lot of research has shown that the difference in production between the best lineup and worst lineup for the same ballclub is worth only around two or three wins. And those are for the EXTREMES.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Johnny Evers
            And that's the truth: a lot of research has shown that the difference in production between the best lineup and worst lineup for the same ballclub is worth only around two or three wins. And those are for the EXTREMES.
            I'd be very interested in seeing some sources for this, Johnny. Do you know of any handy articles, etc., that get into the value of a particular order in a lineup?
            "Anything less would not have been worthy of me. Anything more would not have been possible." - Carl Yastrzemski

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by SoxSon
              I'd be very interested in seeing some sources for this, Johnny. Do you know of any handy articles, etc., that get into the value of a particular order in a lineup?
              I can't remember where exactly I found that 2-3 win figure, but there are a number of studies which involve lineup value and batting order. I can do some more digging later on, but this should get you started:

              http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/R...lineup_art.htm

              In that study he reports that the difference is only about 3 runs per season:

              I must confess that this wasn't what I hoped to find when I began this investigation. I suppose the best-case scenario would have been to find a handful of counter-intuitive lineups that were significantly better than the traditional ones. As it was, the best lineup in the NL scored only 4.4% more runs than the worst, and in the AL the range was even narrower, as the best team scored only 2.4% more runs than the worst. And the difference between the best and the traditional lineup is negligible: in the NL it amounted to 0.38% more runs (or about 3 runs a season) and in the AL it was 0.24% more runs. These results seem to agree with the long-held belief that the ordering makes little difference.
              http://www.pankin.com/markov/btn1191.htm

              http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~mbodell/...Order2001.html

              http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/013178.php

              http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~raj/writ...tingOrder.html

              I know there are a few more links somewhere (I'll pass them on to you when I find them)....Tango, Litchman, and Dolphin had a section on batting order in general in The Book.

              Comment


              • #8
                Thanks a lot, Johnny...good reading!
                "Anything less would not have been worthy of me. Anything more would not have been possible." - Carl Yastrzemski

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by SoxSon
                  Thanks a lot, Johnny...good reading!
                  I second that...good stuff! Need more time to look at it...
                  "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    i've thought about it, and the old "if it ain't broke don't fix it" thing always comes up in my head.

                    i have thought, though, that in away games against lefties, the lineup of
                    lf) coco
                    ss)lugo
                    rf) j.d. drew
                    dh) manny ramirez
                    cf) wmp
                    3b)lowell
                    2b)pedroia
                    1b)youk

                    should come up a few times. if it showed up more than a few times though, i'd be mad. really that just gives you a great defensive outfield, which'd be nice to watch. but papi is unbelievable on the road, and drew isn't very good against lefties. so there are obviously some things to dislike about that lineup.

                    the red sox are- as they typically have been in the theo era- very deep this year, there'll be lots of oppurtunities to mix and match.
                    Gelatin Fernandalism

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by PhilWings24
                      i've thought about it, and the old "if it ain't broke don't fix it" thing always comes up in my head.
                      ....
                      Yeah, but they batted Manny-Papi in '04, it worked, then they "fixed" it and there have been no WS appearances since then!
                      And, that is the #1 reason why, I'm sure!!!
                      "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SoxSon
                        I'd be very interested in seeing some sources for this, Johnny. Do you know of any handy articles, etc., that get into the value of a particular order in a lineup?

                        Thing is though the line up is what alot of guys are comfortable with...also it's to create problems for the opposing managers. I know I can't hit 4th, because I uppercut too much...but fifth I'm good with. So it depends where guys are comfortable at too. Also since most managers aren't total idiots, they have an idea of how to deal with lineups so if you're telling me that a line up that looks like:

                        Lowell
                        Ortiz
                        Tek
                        Pedoria
                        Youkillis
                        Manny
                        Crisp
                        Drew

                        Is only 2-3 wins worse than


                        Lugo
                        Youkillis
                        Ortiz
                        Manny
                        Drew
                        Lowell
                        Tek
                        Crisp
                        Pedoria


                        ?

                        Also you can't do what those stat-heads do and just plug their numbers elsewhere in the line up...baseball's way different than that. It isn't as homogeneous as the stat-heads would lead you to believe. I looked at that Harvard guy's list and let me tell you this...he is an idiot. If Delgado bats lead off and he has Fulmer and Stewart behind him...he's not going to drive in very many runs. He'll get walked alot sure, but the guys behind him aren't going to do anything special...nor is Delgado going to rip up the basepaths. So order does matter, but it takes a more traditional approach to the sport...since when a player is at bat and playing the game his "feel" of it is more important and it would take a guy that has played a game, usually the manager, to help a player out with this.

                        Now that being said whether or not Manny bats third or fourth doesn't matter all that much, nor does whether or not Lugo leads off or Youkillis does (I say Youkillis two because you may as well let Lugo be the speed ahead of him and let Youkillis be second that way Ortiz/Manny have guys on for them) doesn't matter a whole lot unless Ortiz is comfortable at batting 3rd and not as comfortable batting 4th...then it matters alot, otherwise in this case it doesn't matter a whole whole lot.
                        Last edited by ChrisLDuncan; 02-03-2007, 12:00 AM.
                        "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

                        "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

                        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan
                          Thing is though the line up is what alot of guys are comfortable with...also it's to create problems for the opposing managers. I know I can't hit 4th, because I uppercut too much...but fifth I'm good with. So it depends where guys are comfortable at too. Also since most managers aren't total idiots, they have an idea of how to deal with lineups so if you're telling me that a line up that looks like:

                          Lowell
                          Ortiz
                          Tek
                          Pedoria
                          Youkillis
                          Manny
                          Crisp
                          Drew

                          Is only 2-3 wins worse than


                          Lugo
                          Youkillis
                          Ortiz
                          Manny
                          Drew
                          Lowell
                          Tek
                          Crisp
                          Pedoria


                          ?

                          Also you can't do what those stat-heads do and just plug their numbers elsewhere in the line up...baseball's way different than that. It isn't as homogeneous as the stat-heads would lead you to believe. I looked at that Harvard guy's list and let me tell you this...he is an idiot. If Delgado bats lead off and he has Fulmer and Stewart behind him...he's not going to drive in very many runs. He'll get walked alot sure, but the guys behind him aren't going to do anything special...nor is Delgado going to rip up the basepaths. So order does matter, but it takes a more traditional approach to the sport...since when a player is at bat and playing the game his "feel" of it is more important and it would take a guy that has played a game, usually the manager, to help a player out with this.

                          Now that being said whether or not Manny bats third or fourth doesn't matter all that much, nor does whether or not Lugo leads off or Youkillis does (I say Youkillis two because you may as well let Lugo be the speed ahead of him and let Youkillis be second that way Ortiz/Manny have guys on for them) doesn't matter a whole lot unless Ortiz is comfortable at batting 3rd and not as comfortable batting 4th...then it matters alot, otherwise in this case it doesn't matter a whole whole lot.

                          Oh, believe me when I say that I have my own opinions on the construction of a lineup. I just like to get as much information as I can (even if I don't always agree with it).

                          I think there is a prevailing opinion among statisticians that baseball can be thoroughly examined with numbers alone; however, baseball, like any other activity in life, is subject to an endless number of variables that may be calculable in theory, but not in practice. That being said, it's always important to educate oneself on as many perspectives as possible.
                          "Anything less would not have been worthy of me. Anything more would not have been possible." - Carl Yastrzemski

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by SoxSon
                            Oh, believe me when I say that I have my own opinions on the construction of a lineup. I just like to get as much information as I can (even if I don't always agree with it).

                            I think there is a prevailing opinion among statisticians that baseball can be thoroughly examined with numbers alone; however, baseball, like any other activity in life, is subject to an endless number of variables that may be calculable in theory, but not in practice. That being said, it's always important to educate oneself on as many perspectives as possible.
                            I agree with you, hey you may need to defect over to the dark side...because I'm agreeing with you way too much for you to be a Sox fan
                            "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

                            "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

                            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan
                              I agree with you, hey you may need to defect over to the dark side...because I'm agreeing with you way too much for you to be a Sox fan
                              I think it would take more than those slick dancing moves of yours.
                              "Anything less would not have been worthy of me. Anything more would not have been possible." - Carl Yastrzemski

                              Comment

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