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Who would have won a seven-game series: The '75 Sox or the '86 Sox?

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  • Who would have won a seven-game series: The '75 Sox or the '86 Sox?

    Who would have won a seven-game series between the 1975 Boston Red Sox and the 1986 Boston Red Sox?

  • #2
    Originally posted by saturdaysarebetter View Post
    Who would have won a seven-game series between the 1975 Boston Red Sox and the 1986 Boston Red Sox?
    I've always liked WhatIfSports for quick fun matchups.

    https://www.whatifsports.com/mlb/default.asp
    Put it in the books.

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    • #3
      I would hazard a guess that the 1986 team would win on the strength of pitching, but I could be wrong.

      Originally posted by milladrive View Post

      I've always liked WhatIfSports for quick fun matchups.

      https://www.whatifsports.com/mlb/default.asp
      I think it's time to do a little too-in-depth simulating with WIS again...

      Comment


      • #4
        So I just did some semi-in-depth sims of a best-of-7 1975 vs. 1986 series. Short version: a lot of slugfests, but the 1986 team would prevail, likely in no more than 5 games.

        Long version:
        I optimized, to the best of my ability, the lineups for each team, based on the batting lineup lists from Baseball Ref. In situation where positions had players sharing roughly even playing time (like the revolving door at SS for the 1986 team) I used the player with the higher/-est OPS+. Since the 1975 team had a better record (95-65 vs. 95-66), they had home-field advantage. I used a three-man rotation for each team.
        Each game was simulated 25 times, and every trial had its own "series"–the first trial of each game would comprise a series, the second of each, etc., as did the overall result of each game. After a team "won" a series, it was stopped–if one team won the first "series" in 4 games, then the first trial of the 5th-7th games wouldn't count toward the overall result.

        I used the average RPG to determine the overall winner of each game. Contests were pretty high-scoring, but it was close. The 1975 team clearly had the better offense, but the 1986 team's better pitching won the day, and they swept.

        Lineups I used:
        1986 Pos 1986 Batter 1975 Pos 1975 Batter
        2B Marty Barrett LF Bernie Carbo
        3B Wade Boggs 2B Denny Doyle
        1B Bill Buckner 1B Carl Yastrzemski
        LF Jim Rice CF Fred Lynn
        DH Don Baylor DH Jim Rice
        RF Dwight Evans C Carlton Fisk
        CF Tony Armas RF Dwight Evans
        C Rich Gedman 3B Rico Petrocelli
        SS Rey Quinones SS Rick Burleson
        Rotations:
        1975 team: Tiant, Lee, Wise
        1986 team: Clemens, Boyd, Hurst

        Per-game average:
        Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 4.34.44 PM.png

        "Series" results:
        Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 4.33.42 PM.png
        Last edited by pedrosrotatorcuff; 07-18-2020, 02:50 PM.

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        • #5
          Is there no allowance for trades? Spike Owen was the regular once he was acquired and was the shortstop in the '86 WS.
          And in '75, I would put Rice in LF and Cecil Cooper as the DH.

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