BOSTON vs. NEW YORK '08

[Imgran]

You can argue that Beckett and Ortiz was an out performance, also with Ortiz comming off of knee surgery. You can also argue that Coco Crisp's defensive wizardry was a fluke, looking at his past scores in DWS and FRAR.

Beckett an outperformance? In what sense? He only exceeded his 2005 numbers by innings pitched and strength of schedule.

I don't see Ortiz's year as outperformance either, at least not in the sense I think you mean. Ortiz only exceeded last year's OPS by .017. If anything, he simply adjusted to match his previous year despite diminished power.

You can't bring up A-Rod's career year with out also looking at Ortiz's and Beckett's. There is room for regression in both teams. You can also take the huge UNDERperformance that the team had in the first half, from the likes of Abreu, Cano, Damon, and Matsui. The team was the best in baseball during the second half.

Which it won't be next year in all probability. Furthermore with the exception of Cano al the players who allegedly underperformed were on the far side of their career swing. Also I could point to similar underperformance by Lugo, Drew, Manny (at least for Manny), and Crisp.

Chamberlain will start the season in the bullpen, they also have Ross Ohlendorf whose stuff jumped up a whole grade when he moved to the bullpen. Chamberlain will go to the rotation when the TJ surgery guys come back. The pen should be fine. Most Yankee fans I know actually hated Scott Proctor.

The more fool they, then. Over the last 2 years Proctor pitched 102 and 86 innings with sub-4 ERA's all around. That's a superhuman workload for a reliever and not having him available is definitely going to force you guys to redistribute that workload to multiple other pitchers.

I'd heard that Chamberlain was actually headed for the rotation to start the year. Care to link me to where he's starting in the pen?

Look at Mo's BABIP in April, .417, that's very flukish. Then look at his numbers after April. He's fine.

I set no store on relief pitchers' BABIP's. There's just too much fluke there for them to be realistic statistically. Suffice it to say that this is the third year in a row that Mo's been off to a slow start. You can't blame that on just BABIP, CLD.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Beckett an outperformance? In what sense? He only exceeded his 2005 numbers by innings pitched and strength of schedule.

Career year, be bested his other 200 IP season in ERA+ by fifty points.

I don't see Ortiz's year as outperformance either, at least not in the sense I think you mean. Ortiz only exceeded last year's OPS by .017. If anything, he simply adjusted to match his previous year despite diminished power.

Career high in OPS+ by ten points.

Which it won't be next year in all probability. Furthermore with the exception of Cano al the players who allegedly underperformed were on the far side of their career swing. Also I could point to similar underperformance by Lugo, Drew, Manny (at least for Manny), and Crisp.

Manny is a 35 year old man who even by his own admission isn't the same hitter he used to be. I agree on Drew and Lugo though, they should get better.

The more fool they, then. Over the last 2 years Proctor pitched 102 and 86 innings with sub-4 ERA's all around. That's a superhuman workload for a reliever and not having him available is definitely going to force you guys to redistribute that workload to multiple other pitchers.

Superhuman workload, and he was a ticking time bomb.

I'd heard that Chamberlain was actually headed for the rotation to start the year. Care to link me to where he's starting in the pen?

Forgot where I read it, I think it was at Yankees.lhblogs.com it's the best way to use him for the full season.

I set no store on relief pitchers' BABIP's. There's just too much fluke there for them to be realistic statistically. Suffice it to say that this is the third year in a row that Mo's been off to a slow start. You can't blame that on just BABIP, CLD.

I wasn't saying "just" BABIP, I feel that people that worry about Mo are focusing a bit too much on a flukey April and not enough on May-October.

[Imgran]

Don't get me started on Chein Ming Wang...I hate that guy; on that point though, Beckett had injury problems in Florida too.

Granted, but it wasn't those problems that sidelined Beckett this year. If it was, he could just have gone to Tavarez for some Red Bull and crushed aspirin.

4.76 ERA

100 ERA+

The two aren't comparable. Joba had the stuff in the minors, and his stuff is top five in the bigs; you could never say the same thing about Hansen

Uhh, hello? 98 MPH fastball, plus-plus slider? Sound familiar? Hansen's demon isn't stuff, his stuff is tremendous. It's his inconsistency that's the problem, and Chamberlain hasn't nearly answered that question yet because he was expressed to the majors.

Also in Hansen's first season in the minors (by which I mean the season after he was drafted, I know, unclear my apologies) he had a 1.39 WHIP and terrible peripheral stats.

That's just not true -- you're counting only the AAA numbers. Factor in the AA innings and the number becomes a very respectable 1.23. Reliever innings are like that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rosters

... and? You *do* realize just how much Timlin, Wakefield and Schilling throw that number off, right?

You can say the same thing "what if Ortiz goes down" If one of your best players gets injured you're going to have a hard time replacing him.

Not quite. We have at least an above replacement heir for any of our guys who go down with the possible exception of 'Tek (depending on what Kottaras does). I'm not intimately familiar with the Yankees' farm system but I'm under the impression that's not the case for you guys.

[ElHalo]

The Yankees got into the playoffs on ourperformances by A-Rod, Posada, and arguably Chamberlain. And the question of whether several of their key players can repeat their years (notably: Damon, Marsui, Posada, Rivera, besides the outperformers) is a very open one.

This isn't true at all. ARod and Posada will be significantly worse than they were last year; I don't expect Jeter to be any better this year than last year. Other than those three, everybody on the Yankees underperformed last season. All of the left handed hitters (Damon, Cano, Abreu, Giambi, Matsui) had TERRIBLE first halves of the season; all but Giambi got over it and were a lot better in the second half. I don't think you can count on Cano being terrible for three months again (project his post-All Star Break numbers to a full season, and he hits .343/.396/.557, with 113 R, 28 HR, and 122 RBI). Abreu is getting older, but he also picked up his performance a lot in the second half. Despite big dropoffs from Posada and Rodriguez, I expect the Yankees' offense to be better this year than last.

And the pitching last year was awful. The Yankees got 30 starts (or nearly one fifth of their games) out of pitchers with ERA's above 6.00 (Igawa, Clippard, DeSalvo, Henn, Karstens, Wright). Unless Mussina blows up and somehow keeps his starting job, that ain't happening this year. The Yanks' three main setup guys -- Farnsworth, Vizcaino, and Bruney -- had ERA+'s of 93, 96, and 104. On the pitching front, the Yankees' depth is a key asset. They'll be starting out with Ohlendorf and Britton getting big roles, and hopefully living up to expectations, but if anybody falters they have Horne and Marquez to bring in from the minors... they have enough young arms to stick in the bullpen that, if any one or two don't work out, they'll have more to come in and win on percentages.

I have high hopes for the Yankees this season. We'll have to see.

[Westlake]

Career year, be bested his other 200 IP season in ERA+ by fifty points.



Career high in OPS+ by ten points.





Manny is a 35 year old man who even by his own admission isn't the same hitter he used to be. I agree on Drew and Lugo though, they should get better.

I sometimes wonder about this kind of reasoning Chris. Its not like Beckett has never been good in his life. #2 pick overall in the draft. Very good in Florida. WS MVP. He had an off year in his first AL season and put it together in his second. So because of that, its a fluke? Yikes...

Saying the same thing about Ortiz is just flat out crazy IMO. A 10 point OPS+ increase makes it flukish? Do you want every year to be the exact same OPS+? His non adjusted OPS was very near his previous season. OBP isnt a fluke.

What's the reasoning behind either of these claims other than that you're a Yankee fan who hopes that these things happen?

I could bullsh*t around false manipulations of stats like you did with the "50 point increase over other 200 IP season" but i wont... (I mean, A-Rod, thats his highest OPS+ by 4 points!)

And everyone who does well next year is flukish -- everyone who does bad is entering their decline.

Also, where is the source on Manny saying he isn't the same hitter? Not that I dont believe you, but i've never seen it. Also, many MANY people have had a season like Manny's last year (which was still very good) and had it not be the beginning of their decline -- Heilmann, Cobb, Aaron, Allen, ect... Do you expect Manny to hit for a 115 OPS+ this year? If so, you're probably going to be VERY disappointed.

[Jager]

Beckett has bested some of his numbers, but you should expect that from a young guy that's entering his prime. He's not on the downside of his career like Mussina, Pettite, Mo, and others are. You can debate it all you want, but he's a certifiable ace on any staff. Plus, his "injuries" in the past aren't really that bad. I'd much rather have a guy that had blisters which sidelined him rather than elbow or shoulder problems. If anything that will help him for the rest of his career because it kept his IP down for the majority of his younger career.

As far as Ortiz goes, It's easier to argue that he had a "down" year for him. The power numbers dropped, and that had alot to do with his knee IMO. He adjusted, and because he's such a good hitter, his AVG went up. He's certainly not a sure thing, but even if he went down, we have some decent power potential guys in AAA that could do ok. Obviously nothing like the threat that Ortiz is, but a servicable DH.

I'm not bashing the Yankees here, I think they'll be right there at the end of the year, and obviously a few injuries either way could sway things, but I think the Sox are better suited to absorb some injuries, and still have servicable replacements. Not as good, but still servicable. Plus, we have a better option in AAA for Lugo at SS. If he struggles early, we could see that upgrade.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Granted, but it wasn't those problems that sidelined Beckett this year. If it was, he could just have gone to Tavarez for some Red Bull and crushed aspirin.

Que?

h, hello? 98 MPH fastball, plus-plus slider? Sound familiar? Hansen's demon isn't stuff, his stuff is tremendous. It's his inconsistency that's the problem, and Chamberlain hasn't nearly answered that question yet because he was expressed to the majors.



That's just not true -- you're counting only the AAA numbers. Factor in the AA innings and the number becomes a very respectable 1.23. Reliever innings are like that.

His peripheral stats jumped down a grade when he jumped to AAA, they suffered a step decline.

... and? You *do* realize just how much Timlin, Wakefield and Schilling throw that number off, right?

Take out Schilling, and those are two pieces of the team.

Not quite. We have at least an above replacement heir for any of our guys who go down with the possible exception of 'Tek (depending on what Kottaras does). I'm not intimately familiar with the Yankees' farm system but I'm under the impression that's not the case for you guys.

Don't tell me that the team isn't suffering big time if Ortiz goes down. Posada was the Yankees' second best player last season. ANYTIME you lose a player that good your team suffers.

[ChrisLDuncan]

I sometimes wonder about this kind of reasoning Chris. Its not like Beckett has never been good in his life. #2 pick overall in the draft. Very good in Florida. WS MVP. He had an off year in his first AL season and put it together in his second. So because of that, its a fluke? Yikes...

There is a difference between good and a 145 ERA+.

Saying the same thing about Ortiz is just flat out crazy IMO. A 10 point OPS+ increase makes it flukish? Do you want every year to be the exact same OPS+? His non adjusted OPS was very near his previous season. OBP isnt a fluke.

The .332 batting average was a fluke. A career. 307 BABIP, but .355 last season? That's a fluke. If you give him say a .300 batting average his numbers look like .413/.565

What's the reasoning behind either of these claims other than that you're a Yankee fan who hopes that these things happen?

I could bullsh*t around false manipulations of stats like you did with the "50 point increase over other 200 IP season" but i wont... (I mean, A-Rod, thats his highest OPS+ by 4 points!)

It was in response to Imgran's first post in this thread. A-Rod's season, actually he had a lower BABIP than his career norm. He lost some weight before the season, and changed his swing. Posada's season was a fluke, he displayed less power, but a higher batting average. He won't hit .330 again, .300 maybe, but not much higher than that.

And everyone who does well next year is flukish -- everyone who does bad is entering their decline.

If you do poorly at age 35, that is in decline, if you have an unusually good year than it may be flukish.

Also, where is the source on Manny saying he isn't the same hitter? Not that I dont believe you, but i've never seen it. Also, many MANY people have had a season like Manny's last year (which was still very good) and had it not be the beginning of their decline -- Heilmann, Cobb, Aaron, Allen, ect... Do you expect Manny to hit for a 115 OPS+ this year? If so, you're probably going to be VERY disappointed.

Post game interview was the source.

120-125 OPS+ that's what I'd say

[JerseySoxFan19]

[QUOTE=ChrisLDuncan;1110501] I'm not quite sure as to what they are expecting from Lester, or how many innings they expect him to pitch, a conservative estimate would be:

160 innings, 120 Ks, 85 walks. 4.3 ERA, nothing special.

QUOTE]

really? i think he can widdle his era down to maybe a 4.0 or 4.1 with 70-80 walks. if he is a season long starter i'm gonna say 12-9, 4.10 era, 80 walks, and around 160-180 innings

[Westlake]

There is a difference between good and a 145 ERA+.

Ah yes. The extra 40 Ks, 25 BBs, and 19 less HR allowed. Very flukish.


The .332 batting average was a fluke. A career. 307 BABIP, but .355 last season? That's a fluke. If you give him say a .300 batting average his numbers look like .413/.565

Maybe it had something to do with the 15 point increase in EqA. How lucky he was. BABIP is just as flawed as any other statistic. Its just a huge generalization. Putting balls in play doesnt make the player -- putting them into play WELL does.

It was in response to Imgran's first post in this thread. A-Rod's season, actually he had a lower BABIP than his career norm. He lost some weight before the season, and changed his swing. Posada's season was a fluke, he displayed less power, but a higher batting average. He won't hit .330 again, .300 maybe, but not much higher than that.

Oh. So if its a Yankee its because he changed his swing or some rational reason like that. But if its a Red Sox -- it couldnt possibly be because he figured out how to pitch in the AL (Beckett). He was just lucky. I see how it works now.

If you do poorly at age 35, that is in decline, if you have an unusually good year than it may be flukish.

No, its not. I just gave you examples. It's not my fault if you're too lazy to do some research on it. Just another incredible generalization.

...................

[JerseySoxFan19]

if schilling is gonna be out the whole year why don't we put tavarez in the fifth spot with lester, wake,dice-k, and josh filling out the 1-4 spots in that order so:
beckett
dice-k
wake
lester
tavarez
i think we should use buchholtz as a long reliever for the first half or so of the season and put him in the rotation near august or september, that way he has some innings under his belt and he can toss a few games as a starter.
with julian in the fifth spot it wouldn't be that bad. he threw pretty well last year, remember that mid-season gem against Atlanta?

[Westlake]

Short answer: Julian Tavarez is not a good pitcher.

[JerseySoxFan19]

Short answer: Julian Tavarez is not a good pitcher.

he didn't throw that terribly last year plus i doubt we'll get bartolo calon. julian stuck it out for a long stretch of 2007 and played the best he could. now unless we get our hands on another starter during the offseason, we should at least try him out.
if we got a FA or made a trade i would't mind seeing mark buerhle or jake westbrook suit up for us. maybe even ben sheets

[ChrisLDuncan]

...................

I forgot where I said that Beckett would go back to a 90s ERA+, probably 125-130 or so. I said that 145 could be considered a fluke, however so can 95. He was a better pitcher than that 95 ERA+ in 2006. He made improvements.


The point about Ortiz is that a large portion of his high SLG/OBP was due to his career high in batting average (IIRC he beat his previous career high by 30 points) I highly doubt he'll hit .330 again, likely because he likely won't have a .355 BABIP again.

Are you trying to say that a poor season at age 35 ISN'T a sign of a decline? Manny's a great, there is no denying that, but I'll be damned if a down year at age 35 is a sign of good things to come.

[Westlake]

I forgot where I said that Beckett would go back to a 90s ERA+, probably 125-130 or so. I said that 145 could be considered a fluke, however so can 95. He was a better pitcher than that 95 ERA+ in 2006. He made improvements.


The point about Ortiz is that a large portion of his high SLG/OBP was due to his career high in batting average (IIRC he beat his previous career high by 30 points) I highly doubt he'll hit .330 again, likely because he likely won't have a .355 BABIP again.

Are you trying to say that a poor season at age 35 ISN'T a sign of a decline? Manny's a great, there is no denying that, but I'll be damned if a down year at age 35 is a sign of good things to come.

I never said you did. But you were claiming it was a fluke -- which, if you actually look at everything in front of you -- it more than likely wasnt. Blindly looking at statistics will lead you to false conclusions a lot of the time.

And my point with Manny is that because he has a lower OPS+ than usual (Sorry, I refuse to call a .296/.388/.493 a 'poor season') doesnt mean he's going to automatically continue to decline. And ive given you examples of this. Its just a generalization to say that every player that has a lesser season at that age is in a decline. Did Glavine keep declining after 2003? No. Did Sheffield after 2002? No. Did Parker after '83? Nope.