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2012 Spring training

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Mike D. View Post
    With Aviles not falling on his face so far, and Iglesias still not hitting (and still so young), I can't imagine they don't at least start the season with Iglesias in AAA and Aviles starting in the bigs. It's kinda like Bard situation, where I say "start him in the rotation and see how he does". I just don't see the downside to doing it.
    I am not a very big fan of Valentine, but i have to agree with him on this one, Bard isn't a starting type pitcher, he could be very good for a inning, maybe two but not more than that, he should go back to be a set up, also with Aceves could help the Red Sox more as a reliever. Doubront as the fourth starter and Padilla the fifth one they should be acceptable. Aviles has hit some in Spring training, but a left side of infield with Youkilis and Aviles isn't very good and the Sox's pitchers needs help there. While Lavarnway is far from a polish receiver i will take my chances with him than i will do with shoppach who hasn't look good at all this Spring.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Dogdaze View Post
      It seems at least once a week, if not daily Nick Cafardo and others, but particularly Cafardo states Iglesias should be the starting SS.

      In another RS forum someone suggested that Valentine is feeding Nicky this info and he’s drinking the kool aid. I’m not sure if Valentine is feeding Nicky but Valentine does appear to like Iglesias, and some suggest that Valentine compares him to Rey Ordenez, Valentines SS with the Mets, who played great defense but couldn't hit.
      Cafardo has been a Valentine fanboy since the first day Lucky brought up his name. Valentine has been known to feed writers who write what he thinks with more info than others. I believe that is no different in Cafardo's case.
      Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

      Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

      Comment


      • #33
        Regarding Aviles/Iglesias:
        Mike Aviles will and should be the Red Sox opening day starter. It won't be the prettiest left side of the infield defensively but it will be acceptable. Iglesias needs to start the season in the minors and develop as a hitter! Aviles will be one of the big surprises for the 2012 Red Sox.
        It would be shortsighted to hand the starting ss position to Iglesias just yet.

        Regarding Bard:
        I'm continuing to be torn on whether I want Bard in the rotation or the pen. I think the Sox (or at least the FO) will give him a chance to prove himself as a starter. The question I have is this: How long a leash will he be given. From a long term point of view, he should probably be given until about June even if the results are shaky (It is conceivable that he will need some time to adjust to the starter role). From a short term point of view if he struggles as a starter in April you want to think about putting him back in the pen - where he was one of the best last year - way earlier than June.
        I wish the Sox had signed Kuroda or Oswalt for the 4th starter role. Then they could hand the 5th starter spot to Doubront and have Aceves and Bard in the pen.

        Regarding Lavarnway:
        He should start in Pawtucket and improve his catching skills. I think handing him the backup catcher position now will hurt his value long term. But if he is added to the MLB team, I'm ok with that.
        Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 03-25-2012, 04:44 PM.
        Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

        Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by scaffolds View Post
          I am not a very big fan of Valentine, but i have to agree with him on this one, Bard isn't a starting type pitcher, he could be very good for a inning, maybe two but not more than that, he should go back to be a set up, also with Aceves could help the Red Sox more as a reliever. Doubront as the fourth starter and Padilla the fifth one they should be acceptable. Aviles has hit some in Spring training, but a left side of infield with Youkilis and Aviles isn't very good and the Sox's pitchers needs help there. While Lavarnway is far from a polish receiver i will take my chances with him than i will do with shoppach who hasn't look good at all this Spring.
          I agree Doubront should be in the rotation...beyond that...

          I guess I just can't see why you wouldn't try Bard in the rotation to start things off. He's pitched as well as Aceves or Padilla this spring, and has a lot more upside. Bard could be an above average starter...do we think that of Padilla or Aceves? I'd say probably not.

          Plus, from a "these guys aren't robots" perspective...do you really strip Bard of the starting spot without giving him a chance and give the job to a shorter-term/less-talented pitcher? I think after all winter and spring preparing to be a starter, he needs to be given a chance to fail. If he pitches well, great...you have a low-cost starter who's very talented and under team control for a long time. If he doesn't, you send him to the pen and slide Cook/Padilla/Aceves into that spot in the rotation. I just can't see an arguement for NOT doing it this way.

          The Aviles thing...it's the same thing, to a degree. Why not give him a chance...it's not like Iglesias is tearing up the place with his bat (quite the opposite). If Iglesias hits in AAA and Aviles doesn't hit/field in the bigs, you make the move.

          In both situations, it comes down to "try for upside, and if it doesn't work, you go to Plan B". If you start Iglesias at SS and move Bard to the pen and the situtation doesn't work out...what's the "Plan B"?

          If Lavarnway's two options are "backup catcher" or "AAA", you gotta go with AAA. Why stunt his development to have him rot on the bench 40% of the time? Now, if he could win the STARTING catcher job or we didn't have Ortiz to DH, it'd be a different story.
          Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Mike D. View Post
            I agree Doubront should be in the rotation...beyond that...

            I guess I just can't see why you wouldn't try Bard in the rotation to start things off. He's pitched as well as Aceves or Padilla this spring, and has a lot more upside. Bard could be an above average starter...do we think that of Padilla or Aceves? I'd say probably not.

            Plus, from a "these guys aren't robots" perspective...do you really strip Bard of the starting spot without giving him a chance and give the job to a shorter-term/less-talented pitcher? I think after all winter and spring preparing to be a starter, he needs to be given a chance to fail. If he pitches well, great...you have a low-cost starter who's very talented and under team control for a long time. If he doesn't, you send him to the pen and slide Cook/Padilla/Aceves into that spot in the rotation. I just can't see an arguement for NOT doing it this way.

            The Aviles thing...it's the same thing, to a degree. Why not give him a chance...it's not like Iglesias is tearing up the place with his bat (quite the opposite). If Iglesias hits in AAA and Aviles doesn't hit/field in the bigs, you make the move.

            In both situations, it comes down to "try for upside, and if it doesn't work, you go to Plan B". If you start Iglesias at SS and move Bard to the pen and the situtation doesn't work out...what's the "Plan B"?

            If Lavarnway's two options are "backup catcher" or "AAA", you gotta go with AAA. Why stunt his development to have him rot on the bench 40% of the time? Now, if he could win the STARTING catcher job or we didn't have Ortiz to DH, it'd be a different story.
            Iglesias is never going to impress anyone with his bat, he lets his glove do the talking and its his glove what the Red Sox pitchers needs. As for Bard, again he is not more than a two inning pitcher, i disagree Aceves and Padilla has pitched a lot better than Bard. If Lavarnway makes the roster isn't to seat, but to hit against LHP. either as a catcher or DH.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
              Regarding Aviles/Iglesias:
              Mike Aviles will and should be the Red Sox opening day starter. It won't be the prettiest left side of the infield defensively but it will be acceptable. Iglesias needs to start the season in the minors and develop as a hitter! Aviles will be one of the big surprises for the 2012 Red Sox. It would be shortsighted to hand the starting ss position to Iglesias just yet.

              Regarding Bard:
              I'm continuing to be torn on whether I want Bard in the rotation or the pen. I think the Sox (or at least the FO) will give him a chance to prove himself as a starter. The question I have is this: How long a leash will he be given. From a long term point of view, he should probably be given until about June even if the results are shaky (It is conceivable that he will need some time to adjust to the starter role). From a short term point of view if he struggles as a starter in April you want to think about putting him back in the pen - where he was one of the best last year - way earlier than June.
              I wish the Sox had signed Kuroda or Oswalt for the 4th starter role. Then they could hand the 5th starter spot to Doubront and have Aceves and Bard in the pen.

              Regarding Lavarnway:
              He should start in Pawtucket and improve his catching skills. I think handing him the backup catcher position now will hurt his value long term. But if he is added to the MLB team, I'm ok with that.
              I can't disagree with anything you wrote, well said Therwil.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Mike D. View Post
                I agree Doubront should be in the rotation...beyond that...

                I guess I just can't see why you wouldn't try Bard in the rotation to start things off. He's pitched as well as Aceves or Padilla this spring, and has a lot more upside. Bard could be an above average starter...do we think that of Padilla or Aceves? I'd say probably not.

                Plus, from a "these guys aren't robots" perspective...do you really strip Bard of the starting spot without giving him a chance and give the job to a shorter-term/less-talented pitcher? I think after all winter and spring preparing to be a starter, he needs to be given a chance to fail. If he pitches well, great...you have a low-cost starter who's very talented and under team control for a long time. If he doesn't, you send him to the pen and slide Cook/Padilla/Aceves into that spot in the rotation. I just can't see an arguement for NOT doing it this way.

                The Aviles thing...it's the same thing, to a degree. Why not give him a chance...it's not like Iglesias is tearing up the place with his bat (quite the opposite). If Iglesias hits in AAA and Aviles doesn't hit/field in the bigs, you make the move.

                In both situations, it comes down to "try for upside, and if it doesn't work, you go to Plan B". If you start Iglesias at SS and move Bard to the pen and the situtation doesn't work out...what's the "Plan B"?

                If Lavarnway's two options are "backup catcher" or "AAA", you gotta go with AAA. Why stunt his development to have him rot on the bench 40% of the time? Now, if he could win the STARTING catcher job or we didn't have Ortiz to DH, it'd be a different story.
                I mostly agree with everything you wrote, except Bard, who I feel has not pitched as well as Aceves or Padilla. I didn't want him in the rotation but since they've worked on making him a starter, I say give him a chance for a while and see how he works out. If he doesn't do well, then as you say go with plan B.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by scaffolds View Post
                  Iglesias is never going to impress anyone with his bat, he lets his glove do the talking and its his glove what the Red Sox pitchers needs.
                  We know Iglesias has a great glove but even if he saved as many runs as Vizquel did in 2007, an amazing 23.2, and hit about the same as Vizquel, his WAR would be around 2.4 which wouldn’t be as good as Aviles if he played average defense and hit around his career numbers which would give him around 4.5 WAR, two more wins above replacement.

                  The only way I can see Iglesias being more valuable then Aviles is if Aviles plays bad defense and I haven’t seen any evidence for this in ST. As previously mentioned his career UZR/150 at SS with 1212 innings is + 12.4 which is very good and in 2011 Aviles UZR/150 at SS with 91 innings was + 7.5 which is good, though a very small sample.

                  But I think it’s possible rushing Iglesias to the majors could be harmful to his development as a hitter. While he may never be a great hitter, if he can improve at AAA and gain some confidence at the plate, he hopefully will hit better in MLB when he's called up and then maybe be more valuable. But at this time he’s simply not as valuable to the Sox as Aviles.

                  As for Bard, again he is not more than a two inning pitcher, i disagree Aceves and Padilla has pitched a lot better than Bard.
                  I don't disagree with you, but I think Mike D has a point, give him a some more time, maybe a month to 6 weeks and see how he works out, if he isn't pitching well, then go to plan B, bring Padilla, Cook or Aceves in.

                  If Lavarnway makes the roster isn't to seat, but to hit against LHP. either as a catcher or DH
                  I like Lavarnway and look forward to seeing him play for the big club in the future, but at this time I'd prefer Lavarnway to start at AAA and work on his defense. I think in the long run it will pay dividends as he'll become a better catcher. And we really don't need him as a DH to hit LHP since Papi in 2011 hit .329/.423/.566 against LHP, so as long as he continues to hit well I don't see a need for an additional DH.

                  And defensively he's not currently better then Salty or Shoppach as a catcher.

                  One of the problems the Sox have had in recent years is a catcher that can throw runners out and play good defense, Shoppach was the best in the league at throwing runners out in 2011 with 41% and plays good defense.

                  Shoppachs offense isn’t great, but he does hit lefties fairly well with a career line of .274/.373/.536 and an OPS of .909 and in 2011 against LHP hit .241/.344/.444 with an OPS of .788 while Salty hit’s RHP decently for a catcher, in 2011 he hit .247/.304/.481 with an OPS of .786 against righties, so they can potentially make a decent platoon.
                  Last edited by Dogdaze; 03-25-2012, 10:04 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by scaffolds View Post
                    Iglesias is never going to impress anyone with his bat, he lets his glove do the talking and its his glove what the Red Sox pitchers needs. As for Bard, again he is not more than a two inning pitcher, i disagree Aceves and Padilla has pitched a lot better than Bard. If Lavarnway makes the roster isn't to seat, but to hit against LHP. either as a catcher or DH.
                    I just think a little more time in AAA will help Iglesias bat in the long run. Remember, he didn't hit well at that level in '11, but he's only been in the US 1 1/2 years and was young for AAA. If he can hit .240-.260 in the majors, that'll be plenty. But right now, I think he'd be as likely to hit .200 as he would be to hit .250.

                    As far as Bard being a 2-inning pitcher...the numbers don't back that up, considering he's gone 5 and 6 innings in his last two spring starts. He wasn't GREAT in those starts, but he can clearly be a 6 inning pitcher, especially if he uses his changeup better.
                    Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Dogdaze View Post
                      I mostly agree with everything you wrote, except Bard, who I feel has not pitched as well as Aceves or Padilla. I didn't want him in the rotation but since they've worked on making him a starter, I say give him a chance for a while and see how he works out. If he doesn't do well, then as you say go with plan B.
                      Padilla has been pretty good, but hasn't been stretched out yet (his longest appearance has been 3 IP).

                      Aceves had 3 good appearances in the early going, then got lit up last time out.

                      Neither have the upside of Bard, either long or short term. Like you said, it's worth a month or 6 weeks to see how he does.

                      Let's be honest...if Bard DOESN'T pitch well in the rotation, all the Aceves, Padilla, and Cook's in the world won't save this team.
                      Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Mike D. View Post
                        I just think a little more time in AAA will help Iglesias bat in the long run. Remember, he didn't hit well at that level in '11, but he's only been in the US 1 1/2 years and was young for AAA. If he can hit .240-.260 in the majors, that'll be plenty. But right now, I think he'd be as likely to hit .200 as he would be to hit .250.
                        Exactly my thoughts. All indications are that Iglesias's hitting is quite a bit more advanced than it was a year ago in ST. A healthy half season or so of regular at bats in the minor will help him a lot more than being thrown into the majors right now. That's what Mike Aviles is here for and there is absolutely nothing that suggests he couldn't be decent defensive SS with a bit of pop in his bat.

                        If Iglesias takes over for the second half or even next year as a player who can hit .250 with about a .300 OBP, he will be a valuable major leaguer. If he hits .200 or below then even with his fielding it will be though.

                        In the end the whole Iglesias/Bard/Lavarnway discussion depends on whether you take a 2012-view point (as Bobby Valentine probably does) or a longer term point of view (as I guess the FO does).

                        Iglesias defense is more then ML-ready, but if you keep him in the minors he will likely become a better hitter (esp offspead stuff) and thus be more valuable over the whole duration of his contract. Plus you start his arb clock later, so the Sox actually will have control for one year more!

                        The same with Lavarnway. His bat is more than ML-ready, but if you let him start in P'tucket to work on his receiving skills, he will be more valuable over the whole duration of his contract.

                        A similar argument could be made about Bard. He is one of the best relievers in the game right now. But if could become a decent no. 3 or 4 starter he has more value! A few spring training innings are likely not enough to judge that. You probably need to let him start for two to three months as it might take time for him to become a "pitcher". So long term, you might want to give him this time, while short term you'd rather have him as the dominant bullpen ace.

                        Prediction on Iglesias: will start in AAA, Aviles is Red Sox SS.
                        Preference: The same.

                        Prediction on Lavarnway: will start in AAA, Lars Anderson or Ciriaco take the 25th man spot.
                        Preference: The same.

                        Prediction on Bard: will start as no. 4 or 5 SP. Aceves goes to the pen.
                        Preference: torn. 50.1% he should go back to pen; 49.9% he should start. But I guess give him the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season can't hurt too much. You can still move him back to pen, right?
                        Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                        Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Looks like Nick Cafardo at the Globe agrees on Bard.

                          With Lavarnway, I think he's ready...and if they had a spot where he could play every day (DH or starting catcher) I'd say put him in the majors. Playing every day in AAA will be better for him than sitting on the bench in the big leagues, though. By mid-season, injuries or ineffectiveness could open a spot for him somewhere, and he can continue working on his defense in the meantime.
                          Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Mike D. View Post
                            Looks like Nick Cafardo at the Globe agrees on Bard.

                            With Lavarnway, I think he's ready...and if they had a spot where he could play every day (DH or starting catcher) I'd say put him in the majors. Playing every day in AAA will be better for him than sitting on the bench in the big leagues, though. By mid-season, injuries or ineffectiveness could open a spot for him somewhere, and he can continue working on his defense in the meantime.
                            I would let him catch too. his bat seems to be the real deal so this compensates a bad D. the yanks had posada for a decade and still won a lot. piazza was not good either.

                            the only concern I would have was if the rotation of the Red sox really struggles. then I might prefer an experienced catcher. but usually I would trade some D for a batter bat.
                            I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              "After much discussion and speculation, the Red Sox obtained relievers Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz from the Cubs for Theo Epstein. Chances are Epstein will make a bigger impact on the Cubs than Carpenter and Kurcz will on the Red Sox, but Red Sox ownership seemed to lose leverage once Epstein started working for the Cubs. At least they got something for letting their longtime GM go."

                              That and similar sentences I read a lot in baseball specific media. Some guys in this board still do not believe it. But let's forgive them and talk about ST decisions.
                              I know you're watching, Si. Bu.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                                Regarding Aviles/Iglesias:
                                Mike Aviles will and should be the Red Sox opening day starter. It won't be the prettiest left side of the infield defensively but it will be acceptable. Iglesias needs to start the season in the minors and develop as a hitter! Aviles will be one of the big surprises for the 2012 Red Sox.
                                It would be shortsighted to hand the starting ss position to Iglesias just yet.
                                Agreed. Iglesias is not at all ready. He has no power and no on-base skills. In a perfect world he would develop into Elvis Andrus. I rather think it will be Alcides Escobar (jikes...)

                                Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                                Regarding Bard:
                                I'm continuing to be torn on whether I want Bard in the rotation or the pen. I think the Sox (or at least the FO) will give him a chance to prove himself as a starter. The question I have is this: How long a leash will he be given. From a long term point of view, he should probably be given until about June even if the results are shaky (It is conceivable that he will need some time to adjust to the starter role). From a short term point of view if he struggles as a starter in April you want to think about putting him back in the pen - where he was one of the best last year - way earlier than June.
                                I wish the Sox had signed Kuroda or Oswalt for the 4th starter role. Then they could hand the 5th starter spot to Doubront and have Aceves and Bard in the pen.
                                I understand the Kuroda-Oswalt thing. But I believe that Bard can be a pitcher like Morrow. His upside is huge. He is not expensive at all and under team control. So why not try and see if we have a really good young starter instead of a young set-up man? I think he'll be given the whole season if he does not put up horrible results. Meaning an ERA under 5, a BB/9 under 5 and a K/9 over 7 and regularly 6 innings per start.

                                Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                                Regarding Lavarnway:
                                He should start in Pawtucket and improve his catching skills. I think handing him the backup catcher position now will hurt his value long term. But if he is added to the MLB team, I'm ok with that.
                                The Red Sox will have a luxury problem not very far from today. Salty or/and Lavarnway? I have no clue: but is Lavarnway better than Martinez right now as a catcher? If yes, he should be in the MLB. He raked in ST and destroyed AAA last year. He has nothing left to prove in the minors. Maybe he will be the DH next year. I hope he will.
                                Last edited by SwissRedSoxFan; 03-27-2012, 10:49 AM.
                                I know you're watching, Si. Bu.

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