Quo Vadis Red Sox?

[Mike D.]

I basically agree on Ellsbury. He's going to want to be paid for 2011, even though so far in his career it's the exception, not the rule. He'll basically be 30 when he's a FA...and speed guys in their 30's aren't a good investment. Plus, several of the Sox top prospects play CF (Bradley, Brentz, Jacobs), so locking up someone in that spot seems a bit silly.

I'm sure the Sox will shop him around this winter. If someone will give you a huge return in young pitching, I think you make the move. With the year he's had in 2012, I think that's a bit doubtful, though. I don't sell low...if you can't get that monster return, you keep him. He should be highly motivated to have a huge 2013, since next year will go a LONG way towards establishing what he'll get as a FA.

If the Sox are contending, they can enjoy that performance and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year, and collect a draft pick when he leaves. If the Sox fall out of contention, they can shop him at the deadline. If someone offers a better deal than the compensation pick, you trade him. If not, you hold onto him and make the qualifying offer.

It's really a no-lose situation for the Sox...right now, they have a potential MVP candidate on a 1-year, $10 million-ish deal for next year. If they make a qualifying offer and he leaves, they get a pick. If they make a qualifying offer and he ACCEPTS, they get a potential MVP candidate on a 1-year deal for around $12-13 million. If he stays another year (pretty unlikely) it would buy Jacobs and company another year to develop.

[Dogdaze]

I assume that the Red Sox let Bobby Valentine walk and replace him with a young, smart, energetic manager such as Dave Martinez.

I recently listened to Curt Schilling on WEEI talking about Valentine. I think Curt summed it up quite well in regards to what you need as a manager in MLB when he said;

“Were done needing the fiery [email protected] x’s & o’s Casey Stengal, knows the game better then everybody else. Those days are gone. You have to have the man that manages you’re 25 player’s, manages people better then anybody else. Your coaching staff handles the x’s and o’s and all those things, don’t need a smart baseball guy, it helps and that’s nice and if you have it that’s great, this is about managing human beings period.”

http://audio.weei.com/a/62147733/cur...eam-stinks.htm

Based on a recent statement by John Henry who said;

“Ben is the right person to make the final decisions for the club.”

I assume Henry will now allow Cherrington to hire a new manager since I really can’t see them bringing Valentine back next year.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/b...ox#articleFull

Though I don’t completely fault Bobby V for this season’s disastrous record, IMO Valentine did play a role in the Sox failure, fair or not, the players and some of the coaches just didn’t respond to his style of management.

John Farrell has been mentioned much by the media and many fans, myself included, as someone who the Sox could target for manager. I like Farrell and think he’d probably do a good job as our manager, but from what I’ve read, the Sox tried to get him last year and the Jays asked for Buchholz as compensation.

Someone in the media suggested that Rubby De La Rosa could be compensation, but I definitely would not do that, as I think De La Rosa will turn out to be a very good pitcher.
Farrell was a good pitching coach for us and might be a good manager for us as well, but not at a cost of one of our best prospects and probably one of our future starters.

For me the compensation for Farrell would have to something like what the ChiSox received for Ozzie Guillen, a couple of AA prospects, if the Jays agree fine, else I have to no interest.

There are plenty of potentially decent managers available besides Farrell, such as;

Dave Martinez, bench coach for the Rays.
Sandy Alomar Jr., bench coach for the Indians.
John Russell; Orioles bench coach and former manager for the Pirates.
Torey Lovullo, 1st base coach for the Jays, and former manager for the PawSox.
Ryne Sandberg, AAA manager for the Phillies.
Brad Mills, former Astros manager and former bench coach for Red Sox.
Gene Lamont, 3rd base coach for the Tigers and former manager for the White Sox.

Undoubtedly there’s other candidates for manager, but whoever they hire, the FO, imo should allow the new manager to select his own coaches so as to avoid any potential issues such as what Valentine apparently experienced with some of the coaches, some of whom, from what I’ve read didn’t communicate well with Valentine.

If Farrell is not available, then I’d seriously look at Dave Martinez or Sandy Alomar Jr.

[Dogdaze]

b) The 2003 way. In that scenario, they go back to their origins. Build a core and complete it with smart signings a la Billy Mueller and Kevin Millar. This approach bears considerable risk. Finding value a la Ortiz (in 2003) or Ross (last offseason) is not easy. Sometimes these signings/trades work out, sometimes they don't.

That leaves us with approach b and, hence, the question of how to deal with the holes at 1B, LF, SS, SP, DH; trying to identify the next Cody Ross (figuratively speaking).

I agree that of you're scenarios, B shown above is probably the best course of action, but I'd add catcher and right field as holes that could be patched up. And I'd trade some prospects and some current roster players if it was the right player in return.

Pitching is obviously the biggest and most important area to fix and I'll post on that later. For this post I'll talk about catcher and RF.

Salty is an adequate catcher and has one year left before becoming a FA. But I think having a good catcher that the pichers work well with is important and I'd like to see an upgrade defensively at catcher as well as someone that calls a good game. Salty imo isn't great in those areas, though as I said he's adequate. Lavarnway is still green and has a lot to learn, so I'd look into possible trades or perhaps a value pickup via FA.

One catcher I covet is Miguel Montero of the Diamondbacks. Montero hit's well, plays very good defense and is reportedly a leader in the clubhouse. He just signed a 5 year extension for 60 million, reportedly the largest contract in D-back history and the contract doesn't include a no-trade clause so he's tradeable.

I'm not saying he's available, I'm really just hoping, but I'd at least talk to the D-backs about his availablity. We also know that right fielder Justin Upton is available, though I can't understand why. And I know it's a bit of a red flag as to why they'd want to trade Upton, but if we agreed to take Upton if they added Montero, for I'm sure a big price maybe they'd listen.

If they are available, and as I said I'm sure the cost would be steep, probably top prospects and a MLB player or two, and I honestly wouldn't hold my breath about obtaining them. But I'd at least talk to Kevin Towers and see if he's willing to deal, if the price was reasonable. So here’s an idea, Offer the D-Backs Kalish, Lavarnway, Sweeney, Iglesias and a couple of prospects, maybe Brentz and Britton for Upton, Montero and center fielder Chris Young who isn’t great and a little expensive making 8.5 million in 2013 with an 11 million option or a 1.5 mil buyout for 2014. This saves the D-Backs some cash and gives them some decent prospects. Sometimes money saved motivates a team to make trades, not sure if thats the case with the D-Backs though.

Just a thought, and hey I can dream can't I?

[Dogdaze]

Starting pitching is the biggest hole we currently have and imo we won't be very competitive until this hole is patched up. Of course this is easier said then done but there are a few possibilites, I think there is a decent chance given the financial ability we now have and a nicely stocked farm. We now have the money and the prospects to make some potentially good deals.

As others have stated above, I'd stay away from signing Greinke due to his history of anxiety disorder and depression, I just think he and Boston won't mix well, I think it would be too big of a gamble.

But there are some free agents that might be worth a look. One possibility is Jake Peavy who might become a FA if the ChiSox don’t pick up his 22 million dollar option. Gavin Floyd is another with a 9.5 million dollar option which the ChiSox may not pick up, Floyd is good but not great, so maybe. And James Shields could be yet another if the Rays don’t pick up his option, but Shields will be 31 in 2013 and though he is a good pitcher, he wasn’t that great this year, but maybe.

Edwin Jackson is a free agent and a decent pitcher but not a great one, I’d consider him but only if the money was right.

I'm almost hesitant to say this but, I'd talk to the Mariners about trading Felix Hernandez. Yeah I know, he’s been mentioned as a possible trade target ad nauseam by the media and fans for years now. And I know it’s doubtful the M’s trade him, but we need good pitching and the M’s don’t appear ready to compete that well just yet so why keep him? Anyway it certainly can’t hurt to make them an offer. Mine would be one top prospect and 2 mid-level prospects plus Jon Lester, or two top prospects and 3 mid-level prospects, or ask them to name a price and if not unreasonable, make the deal.

Why they might take Lester is because he's a good pitcher outside of Fenway for the most part, at least for this year anyway, but by taking Lester, he has one year left on his contract for 2013 at 11.625 Million and a 2014 club option of 13 million or buyout of 0.25 million. Hernandez has two years on his contract, 2013 at $20,700,000 and 2014 at $21,200,000. The M's would save a lot of money and still have a good pitcher in Lester, even if they picked up Lester's option, they'd save about 17 million dollars.

Okay, before you say it I know it probably won't happen and yeah I'm dreaming again!

[Dogdaze]

Shortstop is another position that IMO needs upgrading, Aviles was decent and played better defense then I expected but isn't as good of a hitter as I thought he might be and his OBP is horrendous. Iglesias so far can't hit, though he's still young but IMO from wht I've seen of a very small sample, he's just not ready to face MLB pitching. Unless he catches on better in the rest of the season, I think he'll need another year at AAA. Ciraco has been okay, but has recently fallen back to earth so to speak, hitting wise.

Getting a decent SS is a tall task but one possibility might be a trade with the Rangers for Elvis Andrus. With the emergence of SS prospect Jurickson Profar, currently ranked 1st among all prospects by Baseball America, perhaps the Rangers would be willing to trade Andrus. And with Hamilton set to be a FA, possibly wanting more money then the Rangers want to pay, maybe they’d consider Ellsbury and a prospect or two for Andrus?

In a tiny sample Profar in 5 AB’s for the Rangers is hitting .400 with a double and a HR and in AAA this year he hit .281/.368/.452 so maybe the Rangers want to keep him and possibly trade Andrus?

Why trade Ellsbury? well, I know he's talented and valuble to us, but I think where he has Scott Boras as his agent, it's unlikely he'll sign an extension. It's just the way Boras works, he'll have Ellsbury test the FA market and most likely be demanding more then Crawford makes. As Mike D said, his 2011 was more the exception then the rule, he'll be 30 and in a few years we'll have Bradley available. Plus we might get possibly some decent value in trade for him at this time. Then again teams may shy away given that he'll be a FA in a year.

Yup, I know, my suggestions are highly doubtful and yes I'm dreaming again, perhaps too much! But what the heck, it's better then talking about the nightmare that is the 2012 Red Sox.

[Dogdaze]

1B: The FA market at 1B looks bleek and the Sox have no viable internal options. At this time, I see three possibilities: 1) Trade for Matt Adams. He is blocked in Stl. You would have to give up significant pieces from the farm which goes against the idea of scenario b), but at least you get a young cost controled stud back. 2) Sign Kevin Youkilis. He's hitting .250 .368 .474 since having a manager again that trusts him. 3) Go with a Looney/Sands/Gomez platoon. Not the most appealing option, but neither was Kevin Millar in 2004. That's sort of the idea of this approach..

I would definately trade some prospects for the right deal but probably not for Matt Adams. I wouldn't resign Youk, but I would go with your option C. Platoon Gomez and Sands, Loney BTW will be a FA after this season and I doubt the Sox resign him.

OF: The FA market is just as bleek as at 1B. It makes no sense to trade Ellsbury now. Cody Ross has more value to us than anybody else (hits .233 .305 .393 away from Fenway), thus resign him to 2/12. Kalish gets another year as 4th OF/in Pawtucket. For the final spot, that leaves three possibilities: 1) Trade for Shin-Soo Choo. Has refused to sign an extension with the Indians, so could be available at a reasonable price. Would be a above average stopgap for LF. .288 .380 .469 career hitter who turns 30 next season. 2) Trade for Justin Upton. He's perennially available but the same applies to him as to Adams above (Obviously Upton and Adams are mutually exclusive). 3) Kalish/Sands platoon.

If my D-Backs trade scenario worked out, very doubtful, but if so, I'd resign Ross but only at a reasonable contract and have him play LF to go along with Chris Young in CF and Justin Upton in RF.

DH: There is an obvious solution. Resign David Ortiz. Make a qualifying offer thaen sign him to 2/10.

Agreed.

SS/SP: This is a bit harder. Let's look at that in a month or so, when we have a better idea of who's available.

See my trade suggestion, though I admit it's extremely unlikely.

[PlanetZoltan]

Shortstop is another position that IMO needs upgrading, Aviles was decent and played better defense then I expected but isn't as good of a hitter as I thought he might be and his OBP is horrendous. Iglesias so far can't hit, though he's still young but IMO from wht I've seen of a very small sample, he's just not ready to face MLB pitching. Unless he catches on better in the rest of the season, I think he'll need another year at AAA. Ciraco has been okay, but has recently fallen back to earth so to speak, hitting wise.

Getting a decent SS is a tall task but one possibility might be a trade with the Rangers for Elvis Andrus. With the emergence of SS prospect Jurickson Profar, currently ranked 1st among all prospects by Baseball America, perhaps the Rangers would be willing to trade Andrus. And with Hamilton set to be a FA, possibly wanting more money then the Rangers want to pay, maybe they’d consider Ellsbury and a prospect or two for Andrus?

In a tiny sample Profar in 5 AB’s for the Rangers is hitting .400 with a double and a HR and in AAA this year he hit .281/.368/.452 so maybe the Rangers want to keep him and possibly trade Andrus?

Why trade Ellsbury? well, I know he's talented and valuble to us, but I think where he has Scott Boras as his agent, it's unlikely he'll sign an extension. It's just the way Boras works, he'll have Ellsbury test the FA market and most likely be demanding more then Crawford makes. As Mike D said, his 2011 was more the exception then the rule, he'll be 30 and in a few years we'll have Bradley available. Plus we might get possibly some decent value in trade for him at this time. Then again teams may shy away given that he'll be a FA in a year.

Yup, I know, my suggestions are highly doubtful and yes I'm dreaming again, perhaps too much! But what the heck, it's better then talking about the nightmare that is the 2012 Red Sox.

Andrus would be a great pickup in my opinion, but if the Rangers resign Hamilton, which i see as a great possibility, the Rangers probably would not want Ellsbury. They probably would be more apt to take a pitcher in trade, with Colby Lewis, Mike Adams, Roy Oswalt, among others being free agents after the year.

[Evangelion]

Red Sox are currently tied with the Marlins for the 7th worst record in MLB. The Red Sox seem all, but sure to get a Top 10 pick next year. Considering just how terrible this team is at the moment, their draft position will likely improve even further.

[Dude Paskert]

Red Sox are currently tied with the Marlins for the 7th worst record in MLB. The Red Sox seem all, but sure to get a Top 10 pick next year. Considering just how terrible this team is at the moment, their draft position will likely improve even further.

How about having Dice K heading up a three man rotation?
I'd also propose not having Buchholz throw 121 pitches in meaningless games, I'm not convinced this guy has been healthy this season and can't see breaking him down now for no reason.