I basically agree on Ellsbury. He's going to want to be paid for 2011, even though so far in his career it's the exception, not the rule. He'll basically be 30 when he's a FA...and speed guys in their 30's aren't a good investment. Plus, several of the Sox top prospects play CF (Bradley, Brentz, Jacobs), so locking up someone in that spot seems a bit silly.
I'm sure the Sox will shop him around this winter. If someone will give you a huge return in young pitching, I think you make the move. With the year he's had in 2012, I think that's a bit doubtful, though. I don't sell low...if you can't get that monster return, you keep him. He should be highly motivated to have a huge 2013, since next year will go a LONG way towards establishing what he'll get as a FA.
If the Sox are contending, they can enjoy that performance and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year, and collect a draft pick when he leaves. If the Sox fall out of contention, they can shop him at the deadline. If someone offers a better deal than the compensation pick, you trade him. If not, you hold onto him and make the qualifying offer.
It's really a no-lose situation for the Sox...right now, they have a potential MVP candidate on a 1-year, $10 million-ish deal for next year. If they make a qualifying offer and he leaves, they get a pick. If they make a qualifying offer and he ACCEPTS, they get a potential MVP candidate on a 1-year deal for around $12-13 million. If he stays another year (pretty unlikely) it would buy Jacobs and company another year to develop.
I'm sure the Sox will shop him around this winter. If someone will give you a huge return in young pitching, I think you make the move. With the year he's had in 2012, I think that's a bit doubtful, though. I don't sell low...if you can't get that monster return, you keep him. He should be highly motivated to have a huge 2013, since next year will go a LONG way towards establishing what he'll get as a FA.
If the Sox are contending, they can enjoy that performance and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year, and collect a draft pick when he leaves. If the Sox fall out of contention, they can shop him at the deadline. If someone offers a better deal than the compensation pick, you trade him. If not, you hold onto him and make the qualifying offer.
It's really a no-lose situation for the Sox...right now, they have a potential MVP candidate on a 1-year, $10 million-ish deal for next year. If they make a qualifying offer and he leaves, they get a pick. If they make a qualifying offer and he ACCEPTS, they get a potential MVP candidate on a 1-year deal for around $12-13 million. If he stays another year (pretty unlikely) it would buy Jacobs and company another year to develop.
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