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  • Therwil Flyer
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    oops...

    The +1 Jays should have been Orioles.

    Too many damn birds
    Question: Did you use the 25 man and just add WAR or how did you adjust for playing time. But otherwise interesting. Personally I feel like the Jays have to be considered an early "on paper" favorite* with the rotation they now have. Wonder how your calculations change once you take Dickey into account. This could be an interesting season.

    * of course so were the Red Sox two years ago...

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by TonyK View Post
    Which one is the Orioles?
    oops...

    The +1 Jays should have been Orioles.

    Too many damn birds

    Leave a comment:


  • TonyK
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    I just did some quick projections

    Right now I have
    Yankees +6
    Jays +3
    Rays +2
    Jays +1
    Red Sox 0

    It should be a fun season in the AL East.
    Which one is the Orioles?

    Leave a comment:


  • TonyK
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    WAR projections for the players on the team
    I'm surprised the Yankees have that much of an advantage. Thanks for your efforts!

    Leave a comment:


  • SwissRedSoxFan
    replied
    Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    I understand you wanted the team to go a different route, handing positions to their young "near ready" prospects and that's ok. I also share your disdain for Victorino. But to just say they picked up nothing but garbage is unfair. They had a plan and stuck to it. That plan is close enough to the plan i had for them ( not that they care).

    They picked up a better half of a platoon who hit lefties to the tune of a roughly .900+ ops last year (and the years before).
    They picked up a rp who has arguably been the best over the past 3 years.
    They picked up a ss whose stats suffered from an ankle injury and who would otherwise have required a multi-year deal*.
    They picked up an ageing sp who over the last 3 years has had peripherals identical to those of Anibal Sanchez who signed for 5/80.
    They signed a backup catcher who is one of the best at that.
    They presumably are signing a 1b who was easily the best available at a position with no internal alternative.
    They signed all of these players for short term deals, didn't give up any prospects or draft picks.
    They replaced the worst manager in Red Sox history and his entourage with a (hopefully) very competent and staff that is on the same page.

    They also signed Victorino. But garbage? I don't think so. Tons of upside? I think so.

    It is fair to wonder if rebuilding Marlins style would have been a better option (part of me actually thinks so), but I think the idea behind what we saw this offseason from the Red Sox is this. They believe they have a very good core with players such as Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Lester, Buchholz, the pen. They chose to complement that core with solid player (with upside) for positions where a need existed. They did so without, in any way conceivable, sacrificing the development from within. They overpayed for some of these solid players (e.g. in the cases of Victorino and to a lesser extent Gomes) and that is somewhat regrettable. But if one accepts the idea that the goal was/is to build a team that has the potential to fight for the wild card while banking on the development of their young players, then I think one has to conclude that they did well.

    How the season will turn out, I think, largely depends on two players that had nothing to do with free agency this year. Namely, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

    *It's probably not entirely fair to blame the ankle injury for his last two years. E.g. his ISO was trending the wrong way before.
    Agreed on everything you said. Goals were keeping draft picks and agreeing to shorter deals.


    The Drew signing is an expensive gamble on upside of the player and if reached during 2013 collecting the draft picks after he declines a qualifying offer. Of course, it enables Iglesias to learn how to get on base a little bit more down in AAA (I'm not sure he will be able to learn it onto a respectable level, whatever this is (.330 imo)). But I think Ciriaco could duplicate a high .600 low .700 OPS season like Drew had in the past. The Red Sox are hoping that it is 2088-2010 again for Drew. It would be a steal. Otherwise an expensive experiment.

    Leave a comment:


  • SwissRedSoxFan
    replied
    Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    I understand you wanted the team to go a different route, handing positions to their young "near ready" prospects and that's ok. I also share your disdain for Victorino. But to just say they picked up nothing but garbage is unfair. They had a plan and stuck to it. That plan is close enough to the plan i had for them ( not that they care).

    They picked up a better half of a platoon who hit lefties to the tune of a roughly .900+ ops last year (and the years before).
    They picked up a rp who has arguably been the best over the past 3 years.
    They picked up a ss whose stats suffered from an ankle injury and who would otherwise have required a multi-year deal*.
    They picked up an ageing sp who over the last 3 years has had peripherals identical to those of Anibal Sanchez who signed for 5/80.
    They signed a backup catcher who is one of the best at that.
    They presumably are signing a 1b who was easily the best available at a position with no internal alternative.
    They signed all of these players for short term deals, didn't give up any prospects or draft picks.
    They replaced the worst manager in Red Sox history and his entourage with a (hopefully) very competent and staff that is on the same page.

    They also signed Victorino. But garbage? I don't think so. Tons of upside? I think so.

    It is fair to wonder if rebuilding Marlins style would have been a better option (part of me actually thinks so), but I think the idea behind what we saw this offseason from the Red Sox is this. They believe they have a very good core with players such as Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Lester, Buchholz, the pen. They chose to complement that core with solid player (with upside) for positions where a need existed. They did so without, in any way conceivable, sacrificing the development from within. They overpayed for some of these solid players (e.g. in the cases of Victorino and to a lesser extent Gomes) and that is somewhat regrettable. But if one accepts the idea that the goal was/is to build a team that has the potential to fight for the wild card while banking on the development of their young players, then I think one has to conclude that they did well.

    How the season will turn out, I think, largely depends on two players that had nothing to do with free agency this year. Namely, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

    *It's probably not entirely fair to blame the ankle injury for his last two years. E.g. his ISO was trending the wrong way before.
    Agreed on everything you wrote above. Red Sox were concenteating on not giving up draft picks and signing players to short term deals. Mission accomplished and with the exception of the Victorino signing: well done.

    The Drew signing is an expensive gamble on upside of the player and if reached during 2013 collecting the draft picks after he declines a qualifying offer. Of course, it enables Iglesias to learn how to get on base a little bit more down in AAA (I'm not sure he will be able to learn it onto a respectable level, whatever this is (.330 imo)). But I think Ciriaco could duplicate a high .600 low .700 OPS season like Drew had in the past. The Red Sox are hoping that it is 2088-2010 again for Drew. It would be a steal. Otherwise an expensive experiment.

    Leave a comment:


  • SwissRedSoxFan
    replied
    Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    I understand you wanted the team to go a different route, handing positions to their young "near ready" prospects and that's ok. I also share your disdain for Victorino. But to just say they picked up nothing but garbage is unfair. They had a plan and stuck to it. That plan is close enough to the plan i had for them ( not that they care).

    They picked up a better half of a platoon who hit lefties to the tune of a roughly .900+ ops last year (and the years before).
    They picked up a rp who has arguably been the best over the past 3 years.
    They picked up a ss whose stats suffered from an ankle injury and who would otherwise have required a multi-year deal*.
    They picked up an ageing sp who over the last 3 years has had peripherals identical to those of Anibal Sanchez who signed for 5/80.
    They signed a backup catcher who is one of the best at that.
    They presumably are signing a 1b who was easily the best available at a position with no internal alternative.
    They signed all of these players for short term deals, didn't give up any prospects or draft picks.
    They replaced the worst manager in Red Sox history and his entourage with a (hopefully) very competent and staff that is on the same page.

    They also signed Victorino. But garbage? I don't think so. Tons of upside? I think so.

    It is fair to wonder if rebuilding Marlins style would have been a better option (part of me actually thinks so), but I think the idea behind what we saw this offseason from the Red Sox is this. They believe they have a very good core with players such as Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Lester, Buchholz, the pen. They chose to complement that core with solid player (with upside) for positions where a need existed. They did so without, in any way conceivable, sacrificing the development from within. They overpayed for some of these solid players (e.g. in the cases of Victorino and to a lesser extent Gomes) and that is somewhat regrettable. But if one accepts the idea that the goal was/is to build a team that has the potential to fight for the wild card while banking on the development of their young players, then I think one has to conclude that they did well.

    How the season will turn out, I think, largely depends on two players that had nothing to do with free agency this year. Namely, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

    *It's probably not entirely fair to blame the ankle injury for his last two years. E.g. his ISO was trending the wrong way before.
    Agreed on everything you wrote above. Red Sox were concenteating on not giving up draft picks and signing players to short term deals. Mission accomplished and with the exception of the Victorino signing: well done.

    The Drew signing is an expensive gamble on upside of the player and if reached during 2013 collecting the draft picks after he declines a qualifying offer. Of course, it enables Iglesias to learn how to get on base a little bit more down in AAA (I'm not sure he will be able to learn it onto a respectable level, whatever this is (.330 imo)). But I think Ciriaco could duplicate a high .600 low .700 OPS season like Drew had in the past. The Red Sox are hoping that it is 2088-2010 again for Drew. It would be a steal. Otherwise an expensive experiment.

    Leave a comment:


  • Therwil Flyer
    replied
    Originally posted by 9&10 View Post
    Exactly, and who have they acquired to account for those million$??? Garbage. In a weak FA class, they spent like drunken sailors and have little to show for it. I was really hoping they were going to go on the cheap and ride out the storm and spend their money wisely, not on the likes of Shane Victorino.
    I understand you wanted the team to go a different route, handing positions to their young "near ready" prospects and that's ok. I also share your disdain for Victorino. But to just say they picked up nothing but garbage is unfair. They had a plan and stuck to it. That plan is close enough to the plan i had for them ( not that they care).

    They picked up a better half of a platoon who hit lefties to the tune of a roughly .900+ ops last year (and the years before).
    They picked up a rp who has arguably been the best over the past 3 years.
    They picked up a ss whose stats suffered from an ankle injury and who would otherwise have required a multi-year deal*.
    They picked up an ageing sp who over the last 3 years has had peripherals identical to those of Anibal Sanchez who signed for 5/80.
    They signed a backup catcher who is one of the best at that.
    They presumably are signing a 1b who was easily the best available at a position with no internal alternative.
    They signed all of these players for short term deals, didn't give up any prospects or draft picks.
    They replaced the worst manager in Red Sox history and his entourage with a (hopefully) very competent and staff that is on the same page.

    They also signed Victorino. But garbage? I don't think so. Tons of upside? I think so.

    It is fair to wonder if rebuilding Marlins style would have been a better option (part of me actually thinks so), but I think the idea behind what we saw this offseason from the Red Sox is this. They believe they have a very good core with players such as Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Lester, Buchholz, the pen. They chose to complement that core with solid player (with upside) for positions where a need existed. They did so without, in any way conceivable, sacrificing the development from within. They overpayed for some of these solid players (e.g. in the cases of Victorino and to a lesser extent Gomes) and that is somewhat regrettable. But if one accepts the idea that the goal was/is to build a team that has the potential to fight for the wild card while banking on the development of their young players, then I think one has to conclude that they did well.

    How the season will turn out, I think, largely depends on two players that had nothing to do with free agency this year. Namely, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

    *It's probably not entirely fair to blame the ankle injury for his last two years. E.g. his ISO was trending the wrong way before.
    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-17-2012, 01:16 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    What are these calculations based on?
    WAR projections for the players on the team

    Leave a comment:


  • 9&10
    replied
    Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    And on a completely different topic: Sox have used up much of the payroll flexibility they gained through the Punto trade: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...yroll-2013-15/

    And their offseason isn't doen yet. I still expect some trades and some depth signing to happen. It will be interesting to see what happens the rest of the offseason and what moves follow during the season (Salty, Ellsbury, SPs, RF/LF platoon player...).
    Exactly, and who have they acquired to account for those million$??? Garbage. In a weak FA class, they spent like drunken sailors and have little to show for it. I was really hoping they were going to go on the cheap and ride out the storm and spend their money wisely, not on the likes of Shane Victorino.

    Leave a comment:


  • Therwil Flyer
    replied
    And on a completely different topic: Sox have used up much of the payroll flexibility they gained through the Punto trade: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...yroll-2013-15/

    And their offseason isn't doen yet. I still expect some trades and some depth signing to happen. It will be interesting to see what happens the rest of the offseason and what moves follow during the season (Salty, Ellsbury, SPs, RF/LF platoon player...).

    Leave a comment:


  • Therwil Flyer
    replied
    Apparently the Sox are in agreement with SS Stephen Drew on a one year deal. Think that's a good deal ( although a bit pricey at 9.5m!). Look for him to bounce back and if not then you go to plan b aka Iglesias's glove. Not sure whether Iggy will really profit from an extra half a season in AAA as opposed to be the starting SS in Boston.

    UPDATE:
    I see no downside to this deal at all. If you look at Drew's hitting stats from the past two years, they look bleak. But keep in mind that some of this could possibly be explained by the severe ankle injury he suffered in 2011. If you look at his 2012 stats, you'll notice that after returning from the injury there was steady improvement in his numbers (small sample and all). June (12 AB): .397 OPS/5 wRC+, July (73 AB): .537/40, August (88 AB): .670/84, Sept/Oct (114 AB): .752/108. Drew also is better against RHP in his career, which probably is nice after signing 3 guys (Gomes, Victorino and probably Napoli) who's splits have them beeter against LHP.

    Drew also fits exactly the description of players BC mentioned. He has a decent walk rate (8.6 over his career) and sees a lot of pitches** (P/PA oder the last 3 years: 3.95 4.01 4.20).

    The same probably holds true for his defense. His UZR/150 last year was a dismal -10.7 (much like his UZR/150 early in his MLB career) but keep in mind that he was recovering from an ankle injury. The 3 years before he was a very good SS according to UZR/150 (8.7, 10.0, 3.1).

    Assuming he is fully recovered, I don't think it's crazy to project him somewhere around what Bill James's current projections have him at (.252 .325 .411)*, along with average to slightly above average defense.

    If injury strikes or he isn't performing, then you have a plan B in Iglesias. If Drew shows to be healthy and productive, then Iglesias keeps working on his hitting up I-95. If Drew proves to be really good, then you make a qualifying offer at the end of the season and collect the extra draft pick and slot money.

    It's a bit of a gamble, but I like this signing a lot.

    * That would amount to a 736 OPS. In 2012 Erick Aybar's .740 OPS ranked him 4th among qualifying SS in the AL in that category. That would make the lineup quite a bit deeper hitting wise, wouldn't it?

    ** Are there any studies that prove that there is a value in high P/PA beyond the correlation with OBP?
    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-17-2012, 08:40 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Therwil Flyer
    replied
    Originally posted by filihok View Post
    I just did some quick projections

    Right now I have
    Yankees +6
    Jays +3
    Rays +2
    Jays +1
    Red Sox 0

    It should be a fun season in the AL East.
    What are these calculations based on?

    Leave a comment:


  • filihok
    replied
    Originally posted by TonyK View Post
    The AL East race looks like it is up for grabs right now.
    I just did some quick projections

    Right now I have
    Yankees +6
    Jays +3
    Rays +2
    Orioles +1
    Red Sox 0

    It should be a fun season in the AL East.
    Last edited by filihok; 12-17-2012, 05:21 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • 9&10
    replied
    Originally posted by TonyK View Post
    The AL East race looks like it is up for grabs right now.
    I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a chance.

    Leave a comment:

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