Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Boston Red Sox offseason thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • double post. Ignore please!
    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 10-29-2012, 10:08 AM.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
      *Yes I realize that "trading one of your top pitching prospects (esp when that is a position of weakness in your org) for a 1B" might initially sound like madness. So to explain, I, personally, find Webster overrated (from every scouting report I have read to his numbers, his future is more solid end of the rotation starter than "ace"). Now, I might be completely wrong, and it's absolutely possible that he can deal with his FB command issues and repeat his pitching motion consistently to become a very good #3 starter. But as I think he is overrated, to me he is a sell high candidate. Now first basmen, you can always find at a discount in free agency (even now, in a terribly weak FA market you could likely still sign great players Youkilis or Napoli for relatively little years and money). That's why a young, cost controlled 1B like Rizzo or Adams might be had for comparatively little in a trade, even if both have them have a very good chance to turn into a serious #3 hitter on a perennial contender! Of course I'd rather have an excellent SS than an excellent 1B (all else being equal), but there is no way you acquire a excellent ss for Webster while there might at least be a chance that you acquire Rizzo for Webster.
      I don't think it's crazy...if you're getting a young, cost controlled player who's proven he's major league ready for one that hasn't, you're mitigating some risk there....regardless of position.

      Baseball-Nation had an article the other day that I think is relevant to a discussion of trading prospects for a young major league star:

      The lesson of the Tigers and the Miguel Cabrera trade
      Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Mike D. View Post
        I don't think it's crazy...if you're getting a young, cost controlled player who's proven he's major league ready for one that hasn't, you're mitigating some risk there....regardless of position.

        Baseball-Nation had an article the other day that I think is relevant to a discussion of trading prospects for a young major league star:

        The lesson of the Tigers and the Miguel Cabrera trade
        Well the Red Sox traded two of their top prospects at the time to get a certain undersized dominican pitcher that was about to become an FA after the season. The prospects given up were Carl Pavano and Tony Armas junior. The pitcher acquired was obviously Pedro Martinez. At the time there was a heated debate among some fans whether it's worth to give up to of your best prospects for a rental. But I'm sure there are plenty of examples the other way. Anyways, one could make a point that 1B is the easiest position to fill while SP is potentially the hardest to fill and thus, giving up a top SP prospect for a 1B post-prospect is not a good idea. But in the case of Webster for Rizzo, I would do it in a heartbeat. Not sur Theo would though. Not sure Ben would either.
        Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

        Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

        Comment


        • Stephen Drew is officially a FA after Athletics declined his $10m option. I think the Sox should definitely take a close look.
          Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

          Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
            Stephen Drew is officially a FA after Athletics declined his $10m option. I think the Sox should definitely take a close look.
            Personally Therwil, if Stephen Drew commands $10Mil per season, the Red Sox should stay away. To me he seems very similar to his older bro J.D. All the talent and potential in the world, but seems to vastly underacheive, mostly due to being quite injury prone. Just my opinion on him though.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
              Well the Red Sox traded two of their top prospects at the time to get a certain undersized dominican pitcher that was about to become an FA after the season. The prospects given up were Carl Pavano and Tony Armas junior. The pitcher acquired was obviously Pedro Martinez. At the time there was a heated debate among some fans whether it's worth to give up to of your best prospects for a rental. But I'm sure there are plenty of examples the other way. Anyways, one could make a point that 1B is the easiest position to fill while SP is potentially the hardest to fill and thus, giving up a top SP prospect for a 1B post-prospect is not a good idea. But in the case of Webster for Rizzo, I would do it in a heartbeat. Not sur Theo would though. Not sure Ben would either.
              I admit that I thought we overpaid for Pedro. Didn't want to lose Pavano at the time but I could accept him being in a deal for Pedro. I didn't want to lose Armas Jr....we had gotten him from the Yankees as a PTBNL in a deal for Mike Stanley. Given that Armas Jr had numbers with Montreal/Washington that would've translated well with the Red Sox, I wish we could've kept him AND Pedro.

              I have said this before and I will say this again.

              Do NOT trade Allen Webster!
              sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                Stephen Drew is officially a FA after Athletics declined his $10m option. I think the Sox should definitely take a close look.
                He may be worth a look. Though I'm not crazy about him, he could be the best option available at this time.

                Comment


                • Andre Ethier may be available via trade according to Buster Olney.

                  Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports that the Dodgers are "open to the idea" of trading Andre Ethier this offseason.It's certainly a surprise given that the Dodgers just inked Ethier to a five-year, $85 million extension during the season, but perhaps they're already willing to concede that they overpaid him. Of course, other teams also know that Ethier is making too much money, so the Dodgers would likely have to eat a good chunk of the deal to get something done. A trade of the 30-year-old doesn't seem particularly likely.
                  http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...=381208&spln=1

                  He might be someone we could consider in trade, but there are a couple of caution flags.

                  He’s never hit very well against lefties;

                  Career against LHP: .238/.296/.352
                  2012 against lefties: .222/.276/.330

                  He’s hit decently but not great away from Chavez Ravine;

                  Home: .309/.378/.525 – Away: .272/.347/.429
                  2012 home: .331/.389/.549 – 2012 away: .238/.315/.374

                  He’s never hit very well against AL opponents in inter-league play;

                  In a smallish sample of 109 career games against AL teams he hit: .255/.322/.413
                  His 2012 inter-league stats, 15 games against AL teams: .250/.323/.357

                  Ethier will be 31 in 2013 and has 5 years plus an option left on his contract;

                  13:$13.5M, 14:$15.5M, 15:$18M, 16:$16M, 17:$18M, 18:$17.5M club option ($2.5M buyout) 2018 salary guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2017 or 1,100 PAs in 2017-18

                  I copied the above contract info from Cot’s contracts but I’m guessing they made a type-o and meant that 2018 salary is guaranteed if 1,100 PA’s between 2016 and 2017.

                  I’d consider trading for him if the cost isn’t too steep and if the Dodgers paid a portion of his contract which is pretty expensive.

                  I’d offer Kalish and have them pay 10 to 15 million towards his contract, or I’d offer Kalish and Lackey and not ask for any money.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by RDB_SoxFan View Post
                    Personally Therwil, if Stephen Drew commands $10Mil per season, the Red Sox should stay away. To me he seems very similar to his older bro J.D. All the talent and potential in the world, but seems to vastly underacheive, mostly due to being quite injury prone. Just my opinion on him though.
                    Nobody is talking $10m. The A's just declined his $10m option. But if he can be had on a decent deal (I am thinking either a one year reestablish your value deal to give Iglesias another full year to develop his bat or a two/three year deal at not too much value), he provides some upside at SS and some insurance at a position the Sox clearly have a hole.
                    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 10-30-2012, 04:31 AM.
                    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                    Comment


                    • Now that the offseason officially began, a lot of names are thrown around. One of those names is Andre Ethier's. The Dodgers are reportedly looking to trade him. Ethier signed an extension that overpays him quite handsomely (5/85: 13:$13.5M, 14:$15.5M, 15:$18M, 16:$16M, 17:$18M, 18:$17.5M club option ($2.5M buyout)). Last season he hit .284 .351 .460 with a 124 wRC+ (somewhat below his career averages). He is an average-ish RFer and struggles against lefties offensively.

                      Doesn't sound like a player you'd really want. But if the Dodgers kicked in say $10m to $15m (bringing down his AAV to $14m to 15m a year) and wouldn't require a ton in return, is this something we think about? Obviously it's too much to pay for a platoon player (He would be the perfect platoon partner for Cody Ross) but even with his numbers against lefties he still gives you a .350 to .360 OBP along with 25-ish HRs.

                      The starting OF at the beginning of 2013 would look something like Ellsbury/Ethier/Ross/Kalish/Nava. After the trade deadline Ethier and Ross would go back to being a full time players for the rest of the season. 2014-ish the OF would be Ethier/Ross/Bradley/Brentz/Kalish with Ross gone after 2014 wich would leave them with Ethier/Bradley/Brentz/Kalish from 2015 on. That would be a killer OF.

                      You probably don't want to take on a 5 year deal* at that money for Ethier and have to trade players to get it. But I like Ethier and you'd have to at least think about it (assuming they wouldn't have to give up much to acquire him. A sort of buy low type move because another team wants to dump him). He's 30 and the deal is for 5 years.

                      *The last thing you want to do is immediately go back to hand out expensive (semi-)long term deals.
                      Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 10-30-2012, 04:33 AM.
                      Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                      Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by SDL View Post
                        I have said this before and I will say this again.

                        Do NOT trade Allen Webster!
                        I have to ask, why are you so high on Webster? Obviously as I mentioned before, I'm not particularly down on him but think he is somewhat overrated (in the sense that I don't think his ceiling is that high (solid #3 starter) nor do I think he will actually reach his ceiling (see him more as a #4 guy)). That assessment is based on the scouting reports I have read about him and from looking at his numbers over his mL career. I am no expert though by any means! So what is it that makes Webster untradable to you? Obviously you see something that I missed.
                        Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                        Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                          Now that the offseason officially began, a lot of names are thrown around. One of those names is Andre Ethier's. The Dodgers are reportedly looking to trade him. Ethier signed an extension that overpays him quite handsomely (5/85: 13:$13.5M, 14:$15.5M, 15:$18M, 16:$16M, 17:$18M, 18:$17.5M club option ($2.5M buyout)). Last season he hit .284 .351 .460 with a 124 wRC+ (somewhat below his career averages). He is an average-ish RFer and struggles against lefties offensively.

                          Doesn't sound like a player you'd really want. But if the Dodgers kicked in say $10m to $15m (bringing down his AAV to $14m to 15m a year) and wouldn't require a ton in return, is this something we think about? Obviously it's too much to pay for a platoon player (He would be the perfect platoon partner for Cody Ross) but even with his numbers against lefties he still gives you a .350 to .360 OBP along with 25-ish HRs.

                          The starting OF at the beginning of 2013 would look something like Ellsbury/Ethier/Ross/Kalish/Nava. After the trade deadline Ethier and Ross would go back to being a full time players for the rest of the season. 2014-ish the OF would be Ethier/Ross/Bradley/Brentz/Kalish with Ross gone after 2014 wich would leave them with Ethier/Bradley/Brentz/Kalish from 2015 on. That would be a killer OF.

                          You probably don't want to take on a 5 year deal* at that money for Ethier and have to trade players to get it. But I like Ethier and you'd have to at least think about it (assuming they wouldn't have to give up much to acquire him. A sort of buy low type move because another team wants to dump him). He's 30 and the deal is for 5 years.

                          *The last thing you want to do is immediately go back to hand out expensive (semi-)long term deals.
                          Ethier is possibly someone we might trade for if the cost isn't to much, see my previous post on this. BTW, Therwil I sent you a private message.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Dogdaze View Post
                            Ethier is possibly someone we might trade for if the cost isn't to much, see my previous post on this. BTW, Therwil I sent you a private message.
                            Completely missed your post. But glad to see that we agree. Not sure I'd give up Kalish. With Kemp, Crawford and Puig, they might be more interested in a player with a different position anyways.
                            Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 10-30-2012, 07:55 AM.
                            Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                            Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                              I have to ask, why are you so high on Webster? Obviously as I mentioned before, I'm not particularly down on him but think he is somewhat overrated (in the sense that I don't think his ceiling is that high (solid #3 starter) nor do I think he will actually reach his ceiling (see him more as a #4 guy)). That assessment is based on the scouting reports I have read about him and from looking at his numbers over his mL career. I am no expert though by any means! So what is it that makes Webster untradable to you? Obviously you see something that I missed.
                              The fact that the Dodgers didn't want to get rid of him tells me something. And leave us face it...we are going to need pitching and I want to see Webster get a good shot in the spring. I'm realistic enough to know that he'll start out with the PawSox in 2013 but it's not inconceivable that he could come up 95 to Fenway during the season.
                              sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                                I suggested Webster* in a trade for Rizzo (same for Matt Adams). The Cubs seemed to really want Webster in a trade for Ryan Dempster at the deadline. Unlike the Red Sox, they do have options at 1B with Bryan LaHair and power hitting prospect Dan Vogelbach (whom I really really wanted as compensation for Theo).

                                As for Logan Morrison, I really didn't give it a lot of thought yet. Just wondering if he could be a buy low candidate if the Marlins make him available.

                                I also read that the Cards are very interested in acquiring a SS and willing to trade Adams in the process. Maybe if a Ellsbury/Andrus swap is unrealistic, a three way deal can be made in which Ells (+prospect(s)) goes to TEX, Andrus to STL and Adams (+minor prospect(s)) come to BOS.*Yes I realize that "trading one of your top pitching prospects (esp when that is a position of weakness in your org) for a 1B" might initially sound like madness. So to explain, I, personally, find Webster overrated (from every scouting report I have read to his numbers, his future is more solid end of the rotation starter than "ace"). Now, I might be completely wrong, and it's absolutely possible that he can deal with his FB command issues and repeat his pitching motion consistently to become a very good #3 starter. But as I think he is overrated, to me he is a sell high candidate. Now first basmen, you can always find at a discount in free agency (even now, in a terribly weak FA market you could likely still sign great players Youkilis or Napoli for relatively little years and money). That's why a young, cost controlled 1B like Rizzo or Adams might be had for comparatively little in a trade, even if both have them have a very good chance to turn into a serious #3 hitter on a perennial contender! Of course I'd rather have an excellent SS than an excellent 1B (all else being equal), but there is no way you acquire a excellent ss for Webster while there might at least be a chance that you acquire Rizzo for Webster.
                                that makes sense. however do the rangers have another SS (I guess they don't want michael young fulltime on SS anymore as this would be a big defensive downgrade)?
                                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                                Comment

                                Ad Widget

                                Collapse
                                Working...
                                X