Boston Red Sox offseason thread

[Therwil Flyer]

2 years/$22M...that is more reasonable and a lot less than he wants

I agree. Currently looks more like 2/26 plus incentives. If true that's a fairly clear overpay! UPDATE: 2/26 is confirmed! (I am glad this is resolved and I am ok with 2 years but $13m per is an overpay. I can live with that.).

And reports are Angels are about to trade Haren to the Cubs for Marmol. If true, how did the Red Sox not match that? Relief arms is about the one thing we can afford to trade away. UPDATE: Haren to Cubs is not happening. Haren is officially a free agent now (The fact that the Angels were willing to pay $3.5m to get rid of him and the fact that no one was willing to give up a fringe player to get Haren one a (somewhat expensive) one year deal really makes me wonder if maybe the Red Sox should stay away from Haren?)!

[raysnbran]

Ortiz, 2 yrs $26M, with incentives could boost it to $30M...worth it??

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/...nt-source-says

[Boston Boxer]

I agree. Currently looks more like 2/26 plus incentives. If true that's a fairly clear overpay! UPDATE: 2/26 is confirmed! (I am glad this is resolved and I am ok with 2 years but $13m per is an overpay. I can live with that.).

And reports are Angels are about to trade Haren to the Cubs for Marmol. If true, how did the Red Sox not match that? Relief arms is about the one thing we can afford to trade away. UPDATE: Haren to Cubs is not happening. Haren is officially a free agent now (The fact that the Angels were willing to pay $3.5m to get rid of him and the fact that no one was willing to give up a fringe player to get Haren one a (somewhat expensive) one year deal really makes me wonder if maybe the Red Sox should stay away from Haren?)!

a little more than i would have been comfortable with, but i guess he got the little extra since he has been the face of the Sox for so long. It will be interesting to see what these incentives are that could push him into $30M. yikes

[Therwil Flyer]

a little more than i would have been comfortable with, but i guess he got the little extra since he has been the face of the Sox for so long. It will be interesting to see what these incentives are that could push him into $30M. yikes

If he earns the extra from his incentives it means he is performing really well and in that case I'm more than happy if they pay him $15m (and I assume so are they). That's the nice thing about incentives. I wish the contract had been more like $24m with $6m incentives or even $22m with $8m incentives. But I'm glad David is back.

[Mike D.]

While in pure dollars and cents, the Ortiz contract seems high compared to what he'd make on the open market, I think it's fine for the following reasons:

1) He's not blocking a younger player who deserves a shot.

2) They weren't going to get that level of production for less on the FA market.

3) You gotta spend SOME money to put a decent team on the field. It's not like this was suddenly going to be a $70 million payroll team.

4) He's a fan favorite and even with the extra year, if he suddenly gets terrible, it's not a huge deal to eat it.

[dominik]

well the most important thing with a new ortiz deal is that it is short. 1 or 2 years are the best at his age. don't give him a retirement contract till he is 41.

of course it will be expensive but he still produces. over the last 2 years he had a 160 OPS+, no other red sox player has the potential to post such a season, he carried the offense in the last 2 seasons.

if you don't resign him you will have to fill a huge hole in production. I understand that the red sox want to rebuild around a young core but those young players actually have to hit. Is there any young so player that will produce a 150 OPS+ in the future? having young guys is nice but you still need actual hitting and not just young names.

On the flip side the end can come quickly and you could end up overpaying. thus the deal should be short so that you are only overpaying for a season or so.

[Dogdaze]

I have suggested Kuroda as a possibility for a FA SP on a short deal. And while he reportedly is willing to accept a one year deal the Yankees will make him a qualifying offer (and he will prob accept it). If that's the case, I do not want the Sox to sign him (or any other player they forfeit their 2nd round pick for). So how about Scott Baker? Baker is 31, and posted a 3.44 SIERA last year and .3.74 the year before. Decent K-rates and very low BB-rates (7.23 vs. 2.10 careerwise). His 34-ish GB-rate isn't exactly great though.

I like the idea of Scott Baker who I think would be a pretty good pickup for us.

[Dogdaze]

While in pure dollars and cents, the Ortiz contract seems high compared to what he'd make on the open market, I think it's fine for the following reasons:

1) He's not blocking a younger player who deserves a shot.

2) They weren't going to get that level of production for less on the FA market.

3) You gotta spend SOME money to put a decent team on the field. It's not like this was suddenly going to be a $70 million payroll team.

4) He's a fan favorite and even with the extra year, if he suddenly gets terrible, it's not a huge deal to eat it.

Well stated. Though it's a little bit of an over-pay and though I do worry if he'll continue to be as productive and stay healthy, I have to say I'm happy to have Big Papi back.

[Dogdaze]

Am I the only one who thinks Anibal Sanchez will be wearing a Red Sox uniform for the next years?

I'm hoping the Sox sign him.

[Boston Boxer]

If he earns the extra from his incentives it means he is performing really well and in that case I'm more than happy if they pay him $15m (and I assume so are they). That's the nice thing about incentives. I wish the contract had been more like $24m with $6m incentives or even $22m with $8m incentives. But I'm glad David is back.

he gets the extra $$$ if he spends less than 20 days on the DL due to the heal injury...nothing about performance. WTF?

[Therwil Flyer]

Bradford at weei is reporting the Sox are drawing the line with Ross at two years (which I am glad for). Bowden at ESPN predicts a 2/20 deal for Torii Hunter. Is a .270 .340 .440 prediction with some upside and remotely decent defense over two years reasonable for Hunter. As mentioned before I like the idea of Hunter. He's old so there's a considerable risk (his walk rate went down last year and started hacking at everything which may indicate him having trouble to keep up with fastballs or just him pressing in a contract year. He could be a nice bargain or the next Mike Cameron (who looks very similar statistically)) and he may decline but he has value and could be goos for another two years. It's short years for not too much money. Exactly what the Sox should look at for an OF.

Also, some are predicting a 1 year re-establish your value contract for Napoli. He has some downside risk, but if he was indeed willing to take such a deal what better place to do so than Fenway? It really doesn't solve 1B long term, but if a trade for Adams or someone like him is out of the question, maybe it could be an answer for 1 year.

I'm really losing interest in Haren. I thought he could be a great addition on a short contract. But between the Angels paying $3.5m not to have him and the Cubs backing out of a Haren/Marmol deal, I am more and more convinced that he may be damaged goods. I predict him to end up with the Pads on a rather short incentive-laden contract and I am ok with that. That still leaves the Sox with the need for a SP. I predict Sanchez, but whether I will like it or not will depend a lot on the contract terms. He probably will get a 5 year deal. That's long.

[Mike D.]

he gets the extra $$$ if he spends less than 20 days on the DL due to the heal injury...nothing about performance. WTF?

Most "performance bonuses" are related to health, not actual numbers.

I believe the thinking is that if you give a guy incentives based on homers, RBI, etc, he'll be swinging for the fences trying to cash in big when a single to right (or a sac bunt) might be what's needed in a certain situation.

[Therwil Flyer]

Most "performance bonuses" are related to health, not actual numbers.

I believe the thinking is that if you give a guy incentives based on homers, RBI, etc, he'll be swinging for the fences trying to cash in big when a single to right (or a sac bunt) might be what's needed in a certain situation.

If I am not completely wrong direct performance bonuses, e.g. for hr, rbi's etc, are not allowed. That's why incentive bonuses are usually for MVP votes, all star selection etc. Some are on games played, which could be both indirect performance (if a player isn't good, he plays less) and health related.

But still, Boxer's got a point. The games played or days on the dl thing essentially means they expect him to produce at the rates he did as long as he's healthy (or at least they pay him for that). That's not a given considering his age.

I am still ok with his contract. He is one of the few remaining veterans, he has been one of the most consistently good hitters in mlb, and he is a big presence in the club house.

[Boston Boxer]

Bradford at weei is reporting the Sox are drawing the line with Ross at two years (which I am glad for). Bowden at ESPN predicts a 2/20 deal for Torii Hunter. Is a .270 .340 .440 prediction with some upside and remotely decent defense over two years reasonable for Hunter. As mentioned before I like the idea of Hunter. He's old so there's a considerable risk (his walk rate went down last year and started hacking at everything which may indicate him having trouble to keep up with fastballs or just him pressing in a contract year. He could be a nice bargain or the next Mike Cameron (who looks very similar statistically)) and he may decline but he has value and could be goos for another two years. It's short years for not too much money. Exactly what the Sox should look at for an OF.

Also, some are predicting a 1 year re-establish your value contract for Napoli. He has some downside risk, but if he was indeed willing to take such a deal what better place to do so than Fenway? It really doesn't solve 1B long term, but if a trade for Adams or someone like him is out of the question, maybe it could be an answer for 1 year.

I'm really losing interest in Haren. I thought he could be a great addition on a short contract. But between the Angels paying $3.5m not to have him and the Cubs backing out of a Haren/Marmol deal, I am more and more convinced that he may be damaged goods. I predict him to end up with the Pads on a rather short incentive-laden contract and I am ok with that. That still leaves the Sox with the need for a SP. I predict Sanchez, but whether I will like it or not will depend a lot on the contract terms. He probably will get a 5 year deal. That's long.

good post. i have nothing to add but wanted to give you my endorsement. I'm Boston Boxer and I approve this message

[Therwil Flyer]

good post. i have nothing to add but wanted to give you my endorsement. I'm Boston Boxer and I approve this message

Well, thank you!