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Boston Red Sox offseason thread

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  • Originally posted by SwissRedSoxFan View Post
    Keith law of espn:

    "Shane Victorino's three-year, $39 million contract with the Boston Red Sox vaults to the top of the rankings of the worst contracts signed so far this offseason, giving him virtually the same total dollars that Angel Pagan -- a superior player -- will receive in a contract that's a year longer.

    The Sox have now squandered a substantial amount of the payroll flexibility they obtained over the summer when they traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Los Angeles Dodgers just to rid themselves of two awful contracts, yet they have little to show for their recent spending spree.

    Victorino is a platoon outfielder at this point, and paying him $13 million a year, even with the rapid salary escalation we're seeing this offseason, is mad as pants. His bat speed was noticeably slower in 2012, especially later in the season, and despite being a switch-hitter, he doesn't really hit right-handed pitching:

    Against RHP
    2012: .230/.295/.332
    2011: .271/.333/.456
    2010: .235/.306/.386

    That's a .244/.311/.390 composite line over 1,388 plate appearances, and at age 32 he's extremely unlikely to suddenly learn how to hit from the left side. Victorino delivers the bulk of his value in the 150 or so plate appearances he gets against left-handed pitching each year and should be platooned against most right-handers, which means the Red Sox just paid $13 million a year for the equivalent of a fourth outfielder.

    Victorino remains a good defensive outfielder, more due to his above-average arm and his foot speed than good reads on balls hit to him in center, and he can add value on the bases because he reads pitchers well, even though overall his instincts for the game are poor. He could handle center for a year if the Red Sox chose to trade Jacoby Ellsbury and wanted to give top prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. another full season in the minors before promoting him, and then slide to right or left, with Ryan Kalish in the other corner if he can stay healthy. But if Victorino plays mostly right field, he'll face a higher offensive standard, and they'll likely find themselves looking for a platoon partner for him sooner rather than later, while wondering what better values were available for the money they gave him."
    I agree that this signing seems odd; an over-30 player coming off a poor year (which was a contract year). I think that this confirms my feeling that the Red Sox will not contend this year either.

    There is still some favorable sentiment about Youk, which I don't understand. He was barely better with the White Sox than he was in Boston last year (you could look it up). I know it seems annoying for me to say it, but Bobby Valentine was right on the money about him.

    The Red Sox are still, in my estimation, the modern version of the "Crybaby" Indians of 1940.

    Comment


    • You can look at this from whatever angle you want (and I have) but this is just a bad signing. Everything about it is just bad. My prediction is it won't haunt us (since we got Kalish, and JBJ and others ready soon) but it's a waste of money. hope I'm wrong, but this is really reverting to the old (as in bad) ways! Bad Ben!
      Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

      Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

      Comment


      • how many days before we sign Hamilton? I say we sign him by Monday. what say you?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Boston Boxer View Post
          how many days before we sign Hamilton? I say we sign him by Monday. what say you?
          I HOPE NOT!!! Hamilton is a night out on the town away from collapsing. He's a ticking timebomb and I don't wanna see him with the Red Sox, not for the $$$ or the number of years he'd get. The Victorino and Gomes aquisistions are terrible. I've always liked Mike Napoli since his days with the Angels and while his defense isn't good, he should hit well for us.

          I was content with playing the youngsters and languishing at the bottom of the division for another season or two while they Sox developed some of their prospects. They haven't done jack squat regarding their greatest weakness--starting pitching.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
            You can look at this from whatever angle you want (and I have) but this is just a bad signing. Everything about it is just bad. My prediction is it won't haunt us (since we got Kalish, and JBJ and others ready soon) but it's a waste of money. hope I'm wrong, but this is really reverting to the old (as in bad) ways! Bad Ben!
            Indeed. The only change I've seen is the team is no handing out extremely long-term contracts since none of these deals handed out this winter exceed three years. Still, if there's nothing out there, then don't spend. There's no choice when there's no value on the market. While I liked Napoli and Victorino as players. Both players are coming off down seasons and they land contracts like these? One year? Sure, but three year deals at that price? I believe we had Beltre a couple of seasons ago on a one year deal at lower annual salary and he wasn't as poor as both of these players were last year.

            The money seems high, but the team does seem to be avoiding long term contracts.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
              You can look at this from whatever angle you want (and I have) but this is just a bad signing. Everything about it is just bad. My prediction is it won't haunt us (since we got Kalish, and JBJ and others ready soon) but it's a waste of money. hope I'm wrong, but this is really reverting to the old (as in bad) ways! Bad Ben!
              Indeed. The only change I've seen is the team is no handing out extremely long-term contracts since none of these deals handed out this winter exceed three years. Still, if there's nothing out there, then don't spend. There's no choice when there's no value on the market. While I liked Napoli and Victorino as players. Both players are coming off down seasons and they land contracts like these? One year? Sure, but three year deals at that price? I believe we had Beltre a couple of seasons ago on a one year deal at lower annual salary and he wasn't as poor as both of these players were last year.

              The money seems high, but the team does seem to be avoiding long term contracts.

              Comment


              • I'm wondering why the red sox dump salary by trading away a prime player like gonzalez for not much and then sign washed up old guys to expensive multi year contracts (not extremely long but still 3 years). I could understand doing a rebuild but what they are doing now is not really a rebuild.
                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                Comment


                • What I don't understand in the Victorino signing is how they let his price both in terms of years and AAV end up so high? I understand that there is competition for OFers and that prices are inflated because the industry is flush with cash, but there are other options.

                  Fiscal responsibility doesn't just mean to abstain form 5+ year contracts for the top tier FAs. It also means to be willing to pass on FAs whose market explodes! If a 32 year old player has a significant down year, you sign that player to a value contract (a steal so to speak) not to an expensive multi year deal!

                  I disagree with Klaw that Victorino is essentially a fourth OFer but I am worried about his 2012 season and whether that is an outlier or the start of a decline. Also, he blows against RHP and is a SHONE*.

                  *Switch Hitter In Name Only
                  Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-06-2012, 04:28 AM.
                  Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                  Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                  Comment


                  • Sox close to signing Uehara (finally!). If the Red Sox suck in 2013 it won't be because of the bullpen. Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Miller, Bresolw and Aceves plus potentially Bard (assuming Melancon is traded), that should be a damn good bullpen!
                    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by dominik View Post
                      I'm wondering why the red sox dump salary by trading away a prime player like gonzalez for not much and then sign washed up old guys to expensive multi year contracts (not extremely long but still 3 years). I could understand doing a rebuild but what they are doing now is not really a rebuild.
                      Why don't you ask them?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by dominik View Post
                        I'm wondering why the red sox dump salary by trading away a prime player like gonzalez for not much and then sign washed up old guys to expensive multi year contracts (not extremely long but still 3 years). I could understand doing a rebuild but what they are doing now is not really a rebuild.
                        I don't think I can fully agree with this statement. First of all, the traded two bad contracts away together with Gonzalez. That is significant. Second, they did get a significant return (Webster and Rubby are our #4 and #5 prospects). Third, I don't fully agree with with the washed up old guys part. I would have thought all three (Gomes, Napoli and Victorino) should have cost less, but Gomes can be a very productive player if used correctly, Napoli maybe a one dimensional player but he he can be a force. Fourth, if they are unwilling to give up prospects/draft picks and unwilling to hand out 5+ years to FAs then the Napolis and Victorinos are what's left. And none of these guys block anyone.

                        I don't like and don't understand the Victorino signing, but otherwise I think it's a solid offseason so far. Expect them to trade Saltalamacchia, sign a SP later in the off season (the one who's left of the second tier SPs: Marcum, MCCarthy, Jackson...) and add depth. The only way I see them pull the trigger on a major trade is if they are overwhelmed.

                        The point is, this might not be the sexiest Red Sox team but it has the potential to be a very good one.
                        Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-06-2012, 01:07 PM.
                        Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                        Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                          Sox close to signing Uehara (finally!). If the Red Sox suck in 2013 it won't be because of the bullpen. Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Miller, Bresolw and Aceves plus potentially Bard (assuming Melancon is traded), that should be a damn good bullpen!
                          yes, that was a pretty nifty pick up and the Sox bullpen should be excellent this year. Nice signing!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                            Sox close to signing Uehara (finally!). If the Red Sox suck in 2013 it won't be because of the bullpen. Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Miller, Bresolw and Aceves plus potentially Bard (assuming Melancon is traded), that should be a damn good bullpen!
                            Well the bullpen is phenomenal on paper and potential. I guess this is what you do when you lack SP options. Minimalize the innings that are thrown by SP and enlarge your bullpen. And even in AAA we have bullpen guys that would probably be in the MLB right now if they were on an other club. The bullpen is totally loaded.

                            As for Victorino, I just think its a shame. The offseason was going that well and I was really proud of my Red Sox doing smart undervalued baseball moves. suddendly a really bad contract is handed out and I was really surprised and thought, that the Red Sox would know better. Victorino is a good player for 2/18 or so. Hopefully they know something we don't. But I hoped that when they signed Crawford, Lugo, Renteria, Cameron etc, too. There are obvious signs of decline in Victorino. If this turns out to be a big mistake, we will be able to say, that we knew all along. The Red Sox need a starter now I guess. Still favoring Ellsbury (gone anyway) for Teheran and somebody else.
                            I know you're watching, Si. Bu.

                            Comment


                            • Sox Roster if the season began today:

                              SP Lester
                              SP Buchholz
                              SP Doubront
                              SP Lackey
                              SP De la Rosa
                              SP Barnes AAA
                              SP Webster AAA
                              SP Workman AAA
                              SP Ranaudo AA

                              CF Ellsbury
                              2B Pedroia
                              DH Ortiz
                              1B Napoli
                              3B Middlebrooks
                              RF Victorino
                              LF Gomes/Kalish
                              C Ross/Saltalamacchia
                              SS Iglesias/Ciriaco

                              CL Bailey
                              RP Bard
                              RP Uehara
                              RP Tazawa
                              RP Breslow
                              RP Miller
                              RP Morales SP?
                              RP Melancon AAA
                              RP Aceves
                              RP Mortensen AAA
                              RP Carpenter AAA
                              RP Atchison (could return on Milb contract)
                              RP Hill (could return on milb contract)
                              RP Wilson AAA

                              They need a legit SP and also SP depth. Because behind the rotation there are the prospects only. With five catchers on the 40-man roster, I'm pretty sure a trade with catchers involved will be done for SP help. The Yankees need catching desperately...:-) not happening...
                              I know you're watching, Si. Bu.

                              Comment


                              • One American League GM said Victorino “should have been in the $7 million-$11 million range. What they paid him is ridiculous.”
                                It wasn't me (I'm no GM, haha) but I strongly agree. I still don't have any idea what they see in him.
                                Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                                Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                                Comment

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