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  • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Question: Did you use the 25 man and just add WAR or how did you adjust for playing time. But otherwise interesting. Personally I feel like the Jays have to be considered an early "on paper" favorite* with the rotation they now have. Wonder how your calculations change once you take Dickey into account. This could be an interesting season.

    * of course so were the Red Sox two years ago...
    This was a quick projection. I'll do a more in depth one closer to the beginning of the season when rosters are closer to being finalized.

    I just looked at the starters and top relievers. I added in a few bench players when there looked to be some sort of platoon or the starter is expected to miss significant time for any reason (The Yankees with Youkilis and A-Rod for example).

    Comment


    • Originally posted by 9&10 View Post
      I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a chance.
      I hope your'e wrong too!

      The Red Sox as currently constructed to me, unfortunately appear to be a non playoff team. So I hope I'm wrong too!

      But the offseason isn't over yet, it's still possible they make another move or two, possibly a trade that may help improve the team further. And hopefully they get the Napoli contract taken care of.

      I think there's a chance that we'll contend for a playoff spot, if some of our players can "bounce-back" and play as they had in past years. I think a healthy Ellsbury on a contract year for example will probably put up some very good numbers, hopefully 2011 numbers.

      And I'm hopefull that we get "bounce-backs" from Lester, Buchholz and Lackey. Plus Doubrant with a year experience under his belt will hopefully improve. And if Lester and Buchholz can make some adjustements perhaps on the advice of our our new pitching coach Juan Nieves as well as our new manager who previously had success working with them, I have hope they will bounce back and pitch much better.

      And lets hope our team remains healthy this year, remember we dealt with huge amount of injuries last season. So I think if Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury remains healthy as well as all our players, we should hopefully see improvement in our offense.

      So if we see "bounce-backs" with some of our starters (and I think we will) plus what looks to be a pretty good bullpen and hopefully an improved offense, I think we may have a chance of making the playoffs.

      Heh, maybe "hope" and or "bounce-back" should be the theme this year!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by SwissRedSoxFan View Post
        Agreed on everything you said. Goals were keeping draft picks and agreeing to shorter deals.


        The Drew signing is an expensive gamble on upside of the player and if reached during 2013 collecting the draft picks after he declines a qualifying offer. Of course, it enables Iglesias to learn how to get on base a little bit more down in AAA (I'm not sure he will be able to learn it onto a respectable level, whatever this is (.330 imo)). But I think Ciriaco could duplicate a high .600 low .700 OPS season like Drew had in the past. The Red Sox are hoping that it is 2088-2010 again for Drew. It would be a steal. Otherwise an expensive experiment.
        Agreed.

        I like the Drew signing, though as you say it's a gamble. But he is better then what we currently have available at SS. I like Iglesias glove(who doesn't) but I don't think he hits well enough to be a full time player, at least not yet. And I think Therwill brought up some good points as well about Drew. And if Drew goes down with an injury, perhaps Iglesias but possibly Ciriaco gets a shot. It's also possible Ciriaco, who I assume will be our utilities player could platoon with Drew on occassion hitting againts lefties.

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        • Therwill brings up a lot of good points and hopefully his optimism trumps my skepticism for the 2013 season. Trust me, there's nothing more I'd like to do than to eat some crow regarding my feelings about the 2013 Red Sox

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          • Originally posted by filihok View Post
            This was a quick projection. I'll do a more in depth one closer to the beginning of the season when rosters are closer to being finalized.

            I just looked at the starters and top relievers. I added in a few bench players when there looked to be some sort of platoon or the starter is expected to miss significant time for any reason (The Yankees with Youkilis and A-Rod for example).
            Interesting none the less. Surprised the Yankees come out on top so clearly. We'll see how their ageing team holds up.
            Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

            Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

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            • so, when do we start to worry that the Napoli deal does not happen?

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              • Originally posted by Boston Boxer View Post
                so, when do we start to worry that the Napoli deal does not happen?
                About a week ago. I imagine the longer this goes, the less likely it gets done.

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                • Originally posted by Zoltan View Post
                  About a week ago. I imagine the longer this goes, the less likely it gets done.
                  Sands better look good pretty fast.
                  sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

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                  • what problems are they having with napoli? i really haven't kept up with it.


                    go sox!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Zoltan View Post
                      About a week ago. I imagine the longer this goes, the less likely it gets done.
                      I think it will happen nonetheless. But maybe it's a sign from the baseball gods to trade for Anthony Rizzo or Matt Adams.
                      Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                      Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                        Interesting none the less. Surprised the Yankees come out on top so clearly. We'll see how their ageing team holds up.
                        So clearly? That's a virtual 5-way tie

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                        • Originally posted by filihok View Post
                          So clearly? That's a virtual 5-way tie
                          They have a 6 WAR lead over us according to your calculations. I wouldn't necessarily consider that a tie. But I guess we'll have a better picture once rosters are more or less set and projections are updated.
                          Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                          Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

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                          • Hanrahan for Iggy? what say you?

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                            • Originally posted by Boston Boxer View Post
                              Hanrahan for Iggy? what say you?

                              We already have a closer and the bullpen is getting crowded as it is.
                              sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                                I think it will happen nonetheless. But maybe it's a sign from the baseball gods to trade for Anthony Rizzo or Matt Adams.
                                I asked that quite a few times but: who do you give up for them?

                                The cards certainly could use an adams trade as he is pretty much blocked there but most red sox prospects are either far away from the majors or have issues like injuries and other trouble. I can't see them trade adams or rizzo for a guy with issues (like pretty much all sox pitching prospects) or guy far away from the majors (like bogaerts).

                                so who do you offer? you could of course trade ellsbury for one of those but then you likely would also need to eat a lot of salary as those guys are pretty cheap.

                                especially with rizzo this is an issue as the cubs are now trying to dump as much salary as possible so that they can spent in a few years when their prospects are ready. epstein is not trying to win anyway in 2013 so he likely isn't intrested in trading rizzo for a guy ten times as expensive.

                                with rizzo I see no chance at all but for adams you could probably do something. the cards have need at 2B and starting pitching so if you have something there you might get a deal done.
                                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                                Comment

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