Boston Red Sox offseason thread

[9&10]

What stats did you look at?

Victorino is pretty clearly the better player. By a large margin.

ok we'll see

[filihok]

ok we'll see

If you're sure now, what's your reason for being sure?

What of what I posted do you disagree with?

[Therwil Flyer]

so, let me wrap my @#$* brain around this for a minute..we get Shane @#$* Victorino of 3/$39 and we let Cody Ross go for 3/$26??? What the heck is wrong with this picture? We have the stupidest front office in baseball and have become the laughing stock of the league.

so much for all the cap room we had when we shed salary last year. We are right back where we were with a bunch of scrubs and no improvement to the starting rotation. Absolute morons

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...yers=1760,1677
Total WAR last 3 seasons:
Ross - 5.7
Victorino - 13

Batting lines last 3 seasons
Ross - .324/.434 (OBP/SLG), 4% better than league average
Victorino .334/.432 9% better than league average

Bill James' Projections for 2013
Ross - .321/..444 = .328 wOBA
Victorino - .338/.418 = .327 wOBA

Equal offensive players.
Victorino should provide much more value on defense (+26 runs last 3 seasons)and on the bases (+17 runs the last 3 seasons). He's the better player.

Why do you disagree?

I have to agree with filihok here. Victorino is a superior player to Cody Ross. Ross had a career year with the Sox last year while Victorino had a down year. What remains to be seen is whether last year was an outlier or the beginning of a decline for Victorino. The Sox obviously think it's the former.

If one wants to blame the FO, then one should do so by arguing that they signed Victorino to 3/39 when he should have been available for something like 2/24. But I'd rather have Victorino than Ross.

And while we're at it: I don't think our FO is bad at all, I think they are quite good actually. But they do seem to have a certain willingness to pay FA's the value they assign even when these players could potentially be signed cheaper. Plus they do not seem to fully understand the concept of buying low and selling high.

As for the "bunch of scrubs and no improvement to the starting rotation" part, I guess Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn, Kevin Millar and the likes were also a bunch of scrubs. So, in that regard a bunch of scrubs is just fine with me.

[Therwil Flyer]

I asked that quite a few times but: who do you give up for them?

The cards certainly could use an adams trade as he is pretty much blocked there but most red sox prospects are either far away from the majors or have issues like injuries and other trouble. I can't see them trade adams or rizzo for a guy with issues (like pretty much all sox pitching prospects) or guy far away from the majors (like bogaerts).

so who do you offer? you could of course trade ellsbury for one of those but then you likely would also need to eat a lot of salary as those guys are pretty cheap.

especially with rizzo this is an issue as the cubs are now trying to dump as much salary as possible so that they can spent in a few years when their prospects are ready. epstein is not trying to win anyway in 2013 so he likely isn't intrested in trading rizzo for a guy ten times as expensive.

with rizzo I see no chance at all but for adams you could probably do something. the cards have need at 2B and starting pitching so if you have something there you might get a deal done.

I suggested Webster for Rizzo. The Cubs tried hard for Webster at the deadline. I love Rizzo and I am not as high on Webster as others. Adams is not as good as Rizzo in my mind, so maybe a package build around Owens. Not sure that would get it done though.

btw: Bogaerts is not that far away from the majors (if he continues to progress as he has, expect him to be a mainstay with Sox in 2014) and there are very few players I would give him up for.

[Dogdaze]

Though I’m not happy with the Victorino contract, and believe they over-paid, I do agree with filihok and Therwil that Cody Ross isn’t as valuable as Victorino

Consider Ross’ home and away splits in 2012;

Fenway: BA .298 OBP .356 SLG .565 ISO .266 BABIP .341 WOBA .389 OPS .921
Away: BA .232 OBP .294 SLG .390 ISO .158 BABIP .289 WOBA .296 OPS .684

Ross hit well in Fenway which is a hitter’s park, but below average outside of Fenway.

In 2012 Ross’ fWAR was 2.4 while Victorino’s fWAR was 3.3

Ross played all three OF positions, mostly RF, his combined OF UZR was 2.6 while his UZR/150 was 3.9

Victorino also played all three OF positions, mostly CF and only 1 inning in RF, his combined OF UZR was 4.0 while his UZR/150 was 4.3

Victorino also offers the ability to steal bases, ranking tied for 7th amongst all MLB players with 39 in 2012. Ross has never been much of a base stealer and stole 2 in 2012.

Victorino should benefit from playing games in Fenway which should boost his hitting stats just as it did for Cody Ross. Here’s some excerpts from an article suggesting this;

In 2012, he made contact with 148 balls from the right side: he pulled 76 of them, hit 58 to center and sent just 14 to the opposite field. However, from the left side, he showed a completely different approach, pulling far fewer pitches. Of 379 batted balls, he pulled 139, hit 135 to center and went to the opposite 105 times. As a right-handed hitter, he pulled the majority of pitches and hit just nine percent the other way, but as lefty he hit 28 percent to the opposite field, pulling 37 percent.

Victorino may be a switch-hitter, but his overall batted ball profile is much closer to a right-handed hitters. The right-handed Victorino will derive the same advantage from the monster that a Ross or a Gomes might, but the left-handed Victorino stands to gain as well. He could struggle to hit home runs in his new home park, especially from the left side, but the extra hits off the wall and the extra bases he can take on balls to gaps should make up for that.

Though it is not nearly as obvious as it is with someone like Jonny Gomes, Victorino is a player who is tailor-made for Fenway. Along with an aversion to long term deals and an emphasis on roster flexibility, targeting players who will succeed at home is clearly part of the off-season agenda for the Red Sox front office and Victorino is sneaky-smart fit for that strategy.

http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/12/6/3735496/boston-red-sox-shane-victorino-park-effects

[filihok]

Victorino should benefit from playing games in Fenway which should boost his hitting stats just as it did for Cody Ross. Here’s some excerpts from an article suggesting this;



http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/1...o-park-effects

Not sure about that

This website allows one to track batted balls from one stadium and overlay them onto another stadium.

http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/

Doing so for Victorino only shows a few balls from Citizen's Bank and Dodger Stadium that were outs that would have been hits in Fenway.

[PlanetZoltan]

Im not a big fan of Victorino's, but whenever I watched Phillies games from a few years ago, he always seemed to come up with the big hit.

Hes not a great average guy, but he has decent power, and in a down year for him last year, he still stole 39 bases. I think he can be a valuable part of this team.

[Dogdaze]

Not sure about that

This website allows one to track batted balls from one stadium and overlay them onto another stadium.

http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/

Doing so for Victorino only shows a few balls from Citizen's Bank and Dodger Stadium that were outs that would have been hits in Fenway.

Cool website, thanks for sharing.

Something interesting the overthemonster article points out that may give some hope that he’ll hit better at Fenway is that of the 379 batted balls when he was batting left handed went to the opposite field 105 times, so there may be a decent chance he can hit some against the Green Monster and collect hits, hopefully that happens, we’ll find out.

[Boston Boxer]

[QUOTE=Therwil Flyer;2099304]I have to agree with filihok here. QUOTE]

surprise surprise

[Therwil Flyer]

[QUOTE=Boston Boxer;2099420]

surprise surprise

Look, I'm the last person to say that Victorino wasn't an overpay. But he is a superior player to Cody Ross. There is a reason Ross had to settle for a 1/3 deal last offseason. Going 3/27 on Ross would constitute a bigger overpay than 3/39 for Victorino. But that is just my opinion and I could be proven wrong.

I may react a bit strongly lately, but that's because I'm just sick of having to hear what a terrible offseaon this is when it so clearly isn't! And by that I do not refer to anyone in here but more generally to the reactions from "casual" fans.

If anybody has a realistic suggestion of how this offseason could have been better I'd be glad to hear it (and there may be. Part of me still thinks the rebuilding plan Marlins-style may have been a better plan long term).

[9&10]

I think calling Victorino a superior player over Ross is an overstatement. Statistically, Victorino's numbers (which are from past seasons and really don't have any bearing on 2013) might be more appealing and I'll give him the edge defensively, but are they $4.3M a season better? That remains to be seen.

Therwill, I'll acknowledge that the Sox' offseason wasn't as bad as many make it out to be, but I don't think it was all that great, either. I've said before that this wasn't the season to spend much money due to the weak free agent crop, but I think they overpaid for Victorino, Dempster, and Drew. I hope I'm wrong, but none of the moves they've made will get them out of the cellar in my opinion.

[Therwil Flyer]

I think calling Victorino a superior player over Ross is an overstatement. Statistically, Victorino's numbers (which are from past seasons and really don't have any bearing on 2013) might be more appealing and I'll give him the edge defensively, but are they $4.3M a season better? That remains to be seen.

Therwill, I'll acknowledge that the Sox' offseason wasn't as bad as many make it out to be, but I don't think it was all that great, either. I've said before that this wasn't the season to spend much money due to the weak free agent crop, but I think they overpaid for Victorino, Dempster, and Drew. I hope I'm wrong, but none of the moves they've made will get them out of the cellar in my opinion.

Well, a player's past numbers tell us something about his future production in so far as they tell us something about his true talent level. Of course you can't predict if a certain player will have a down year or a career year (although there are indicators in the numbers) and you can't predict if a player's season represents an off year or the beginning of an age induced decline. That's what you have scouts for.

But Ross and Victorino have the same age (Cody is a couple of days younger) and Victorino's crappy 2012 season was statistically (i.e. fWAR) better than every single one of Ross's seasons except for his 2008 year. Victorino has been a superior player to Cody Ross. Will he be next year? Most every projection available says so, but only time will tell.

Fangraphs had a bunch of articles on Victorino earlier this month. In one they estimate that if you assume that 2012 indicates his true talent level, that he ages as your average hitter ages, and that he plays exclusively RF for the next 3 years, his expected dollar worth would be 27m. If you assumed his true talent level is about his 2010 season and he plays some CF, then they get to 34m.

Victorino had an off year at age 31 and the Sox should have been able to capitalize an that. They didn't and that's disappointing. Do not misunderstand me, Victorino is not a signing a like, but he is a superior player to Cody Ross.

[9&10]

time will tell

[Boston Boxer]

so far, this is what we have?

C: Salty/Ross
1b: Napoli?
2b: Pedroia
3b: Middlebrooks
SS: Drew
LF: Gomes/Kalish
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Victorino
DH: Ortiz
Bench: Nava, Ciriaco

Rotation:
1: Lester
2: Buchholz
3: Dempster
4: Lackey
5: Doubront

Pen:
CL: Hanrahan
Bailey
Uehara
Breslow
Bard or Aceves
Miller
Morales
Tazawa

not sure what to do with Bard and Aceves. I imagine one, but not both would be in the pen. Did i miss anyone?

[filihok]

Red Sox/Pirates trade is official

Red Sox get: Hanrahan and 2B/SS Brock Holt

Pirates get: Mark Melancon, Jerry Sands, Ivan DeJesus jr and Stolmy Pimentel


Seems like the Pirates' haul >>>>>>>>>> Red Sox' haul