Boston Red Sox offseason thread

[9&10]

Agreed. Neither Aviles or Iglesias, or Ciraco for that matter are the answer.

Are you kidding me? So now we're giving up on Iglesias AND Ciriaco? If I had a dollar for every time I saw Iglesias' name on this forum, I'd be rich. How many more years does he need to spend in the minors before he's ready? How about Ciriaco? I say play 'em or trade 'em. People thought Lars Anderson was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and he floundered in the minors, and then we traded him for jack squat.

I say we go with the youth movement. The free agent crop this offseason sucks so it's going to be a rough year or two and we're not going to be contenders, but who cares.

[Therwil Flyer]

Are you kidding me? So now we're giving up on Iglesias AND Ciriaco? If I had a dollar for every time I saw Iglesias' name on this forum, I'd be rich. How many more years does he need to spend in the minors before he's ready? How about Ciriaco? I say play 'em or trade 'em. People thought Lars Anderson was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and he floundered in the minors, and then we traded him for jack squat.

I say we go with the youth movement. The free agent crop this offseason sucks so it's going to be a rough year or two and we're not going to be contenders, but who cares.

Pedro Ciriaco was a nice story this year, but that's it. He is a bench player at best. His 2.9 BB-% is a career best. His final slash line of .293 .315 .390 was inflated by a .352 BAbip. His minor league number and limited major league numbers before this season suggest that this was a good year for him. If he'd be a defensive whizzkid, I'd say give him a shot, but he is pretty much league average (according to UZR which should always be taken with a grain of salt). I'd be very surprised if somewhat would give up anything for him in a trade.

Mike Aviles has hit .250 .282 .381 on the year (.236 .264 .362 vs RHP). He started of great in March/April and then came down crashing. Obviously the playing time in the infield was completely mismanaged at the end of the season and that might or might not have affected him. He played pretty good defense, which is probably about the only reason he's had any value to the team.

Marco Scutaro is a great player whos' been a force for the Giants especially late in the season (although his performance was buoyed by a near .400 BAbip). He will be 37 though and even this year has played most of his games at 2B not SS. I fear he isn't a full season SS anymore.

Elvis Andrus will cost a small fortune IF he is made available. This may make some sense but only if they are 100% sure that Bogaerts will not play SS at the MLB-level. Also keep in mind that there are several positions were the Sox need to go the trade route to upgrade, there may be better options for these limited tradable resources.

On way or another, the main problem that needs to be adressed is not so much SS as it is the pitching. Whether the Red Sox have any shot at being a contender again any time soon, depends on their ability to rebuild the rotation.

[Dogdaze]

I like the idea of bringing Youkillis back for one year, but not against letting Mauro Gomez receive a chance. I don't believe there's much of a upgrade or downgrade from either. Youkillis doesn't appear to be hitting for average any longer and he's a injury risk, but he does have the ability to draw walks and get on base.

I do like Youk, but I feel that if the team isn't playoff bound that we should use this rebuilding year to see what we have with Gomez and maybe Sands.

This team major issue offensive is their inability to get on base. Salty and Aviles both major to sport OBP under .300. Even Youkillis pasted both of them in that category after going to Chicago. I want the team to get back to bring strong OBP players back into the lineup. They got away from that ideal by bring Aviles, Salty and Crawford. Gomez biggest selling point to me is his possible upside. If he could produce those numbers he sported in AAA. He be awesome.

I agree they need to get players who are more patient at the plate and Gomez wasn't too shabby in the OBP dept. at .324 in the small sample we had with him on the big club but also a .371 OBP in AAA where he was named MVP this year.

I would love to land Ike Davis, which I heard the Mets are interested in moving. I'm not sure we have the pieces to land him. I'm sure the Mets would ask for Jackie Bradley in any deal involving Ike Davis. I'm not sure I be against moving 22 year old Bradley for 25 year old Ike Davis. I don't see the Mets being interest in Jon Lester or Matt Barnes since starting pitching isn't the issue with their club. I known they have no interest in a one year rental of Ellsbury.

If Davis is available he'll probably cost a bit but might be worth it.

Nope. I've soured on Iglesias after that pitiful audition this year. 8 hits in 68 AB. 3 hits came in one game. He looks lost at the plate. At 22, he's got time, but he's been in the system for some time, right? I would have hoped he progressed further. He might just be another Adam Everett/Jack Wilson type player, which would make him a great defensive replacement, but not a good everyday player. This lineup isn't as powerful as in the past. We can't just give up outs by placing him the lineup.

I had hope Iglesias would learn to hit better but man he was bad with the big club. However, he's still young and there's still time for him to develop. But my gut feeling is he'll never be able to hit well enough to be an every day SS. I see Iglesias as a Pokey Reese type player, a defesive replacement to help protect a lead at the end of a game.

While I like Ciraco, I believe he played above his head, but he deserve a shot next year. He seem one of the few young players to make the most of his chance this year. I love Circaco off the bench next year as I don't see him as a starter. If we need a 2B, he be good, but we're all set there.

He's got some potential but I think he's more of a utility type player, however if the Sox aren't able to aquire a good SS perhaps they give Ciriaco a chance, though I really don't see him as our future SS.

Mike Aviles can leave. It's disappointing what he did this year. He end up being okay with the glove, but offensively, he was pitiful. Maybe in the past when people placed a lot of values upon RBI, he look good, but no longer. How we left this guy bat 512 and post an OPS of .663. That's terrible. He manage a pitiful 23 BB, which won't be a problem if he manage to hit .300, which is how players who don't walk justify not walking, but he manage a poor .250 batting average. It stings even more watching Scutaro be the offensive spark for the Giants after he was traded from Rockies. Scutaro did exactly what was expected for our club and we dealt for Aviles. Though, that deal might have helped us sign Ross, so it's a wash.

Aviles was a disapointment to me offensively, but he surprised me at how well he did defensively, overall he was a middle of the pack SS which isn't bad, but not great either, just a mediocre SS offensively and slightly above average defensively.

I took a look at his stats and here's how he ranked among all MLB SS;

15th in OPS at .663
13th in BA at .250
17th in OBP at .282
7th in SLG at .381
17th in wOBA at .287
14th in extra base hits at 41
15th in total bases at 195
14th in stolen bases at 14
9th in HR’s at 13
14th in doubles at 28
18th in fWAR at 1.7

Here’s how Aviles ranked among all MLB SS For fielding;

9th in UZR at 5.3 and UZR/150 at 6.3
5th in DRS at 14 (Defensive runs saved, rates individual players as above or below average on defense)
4th in rPM at 14 (Plus Minus Runs Saved evaluates the fielder’s range and ability to convert a batted ball to an out.)
Tied for 2nd in rGDP at 2 (Double Play Runs Saved (2B/SS) credits infielders for turning double plays as opposed to getting one out on the play.
7th in RngR at 4.9 (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity)
11th in Fielding percentage at .975
Tied for 10th in DWAR (Defensive wins above replacement) at 2.0
6th in RF (Range factor) at 4.68

While I don't consider him our future at SS, he might have some value as a trade chip or could play another year as a stopgap till Boegarts or another minor league SS is ready.

Andrus is price tag is likey too high. I don't believe the club should trade Lester unless it's to bring a starting pitching in. While he was horrible this year, we can't deal a starter who has a good track record while his value at an all time low. Not to mention obtaining Andrus will likely cost even more pieces than Lester. Even straight up, which I doubt the Rangers would even do, not sure I do this trade unless improvements were made to the rotation before the possible trade.

I’d be willing to trade Lester because he has some value as a trade chip and there are some decent pitchers available via FA and some good pitchers that might be FA’s if their options aren’t picked up, some of which the Sox could sign to take Lester’s place.

Lester had a terrible year but interestingly was pretty good pitching outside of Fenway.

Lester’s home and away splits in 2012 were:

Home: IP 107 ERA 6.31 K’s 86 BB’s 41 WHIP 1.589 BA .302 OBP .362 SLG .508
Away: IP 98.1 ERA 3.20 K’s 80 BB’s 27 WHIP 1.159 BA .238 OBP .293 SLG .364

Now to be fair, Fenway is a hitters park so I’d expect his era to be a little worse then away, but not almost double.

The AL average for era in 2012 was 4.08 so Lester away from Fenway is above average and that has value.

But having said that I'm not sure if Andrus is available and if the Sox have who the Rangers might want in trade.

For 2013 if their options aren’t picked up, the following pitchers will be FA’s;

Jake Peavy
Gavin Floyd
James Shields
Dan Haren
Ervin Santana

And the following pitchers are FA’s in 2013;

Brandon McCarthy
Shaun Marcum
Carlos Villanueva
Edwin Jackson
Anibal Sanchez
Zack Greinke
Kyle Lohse
Francisco Liriano

[Dogdaze]

Are you kidding me? So now we're giving up on Iglesias AND Ciriaco? If I had a dollar for every time I saw Iglesias' name on this forum, I'd be rich. How many more years does he need to spend in the minors before he's ready? How about Ciriaco? I say play 'em or trade 'em. People thought Lars Anderson was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and he floundered in the minors, and then we traded him for jack squat.

I say we go with the youth movement. The free agent crop this offseason sucks so it's going to be a rough year or two and we're not going to be contenders, but who cares.

No I'm not kidding! The times I spoke of Iglesias was mostly stating he can't hit and needs more development. He's got an outstanding glove but that isn't enough imo. He's still young so there's a chance he'll learn to hit better but I'm not holding my breath. I see Iglesias as a Pokey Reese type player, a defesive replacement to help protect a lead at the end of a game.

I'd be willing to give Ciriaco a shot at SS for 2013 if were not competitive enough to make the playoffs. But if they traded him, I doubt they'd get much in return. Since he hasn't played enough at the MLB level it's difficult to make a firm assessment on him as yet. But I agree with Therwil in that I believe Ciraco is more of a bench/utility type player.

Aviles was decent in 2012, but I don't see him as our future SS, I think he might have some value as a trade chip since he was above average defensively and about average offensively compared to all MLB SS in 2012.

[Dogdaze]

Elvis Andrus will cost a small fortune IF he is made available. This may make some sense but only if they are 100% sure that Bogaerts will not play SS at the MLB-level. Also keep in mind that there are several positions were the Sox need to go the trade route to upgrade, there may be better options for these limited tradable resources.

On way or another, the main problem that needs to be adressed is not so much SS as it is the pitching. Whether the Red Sox have any shot at being a contender again any time soon, depends on their ability to rebuild the rotation.

Oh I agree that pitching is top priority and that SS isn't necessarily a priority, but given that 2013 is most likely a rebuilding year, I'd like for the Sox to target key areas to build upon towards a goal of contending in hopefully 2014.

I think they should target SS, OF and Catcher as well as pitching.

Since we don't have a lot of trade chips, Lester imo could be expendable since there are some decent FA pitchers available in 2013 that may be just as good as him. (See my previous post listing FA pitchers.) And in 2014 there are more potentially decent FA starting pitchers available:

Matt Garza
Jason Hammel
Phil Hughes
Ubaldo Jimenez - may void $5.75MM option for 2014
Josh Johnson
Jair Jurrjens
Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana

Lester has one year plus a club option before he's a FA and it's possible we won't contend during those two years. I know Lester's value is down now but he was mostly above average in away games which could be marketed as value which in turn could be used in a trade for someone like Andrus.

As for Bogaerts, it's impossible to know if he'll fully develop into a good MLB SS at this point, and some have stated he might be better suited for 3rd base. However, if the Sox feel he can't miss as a SS, then I wouldn't trade for Andrus, I'd play one of Aviles/Iglesias/Ciriaco at SS as a stopgap till Bogaerts is ready. But if they aren't sure perhaps we consider developing Bogaerts at 1st base and try to aquire Andrus.
Just a thought anyway!

[Joe Barrie]

Interesting to note the way Bobby Valentine was discharged in that Terry Collins of the Mets seems to get a free pass, with a poor record and occasional public criticism of his players. In general the players seem to like him, as does the press, and he has been signed through 2013.

It's true that the Red Sox management didn't have to contend with the results of Madoff, but their other interests (motor sports, Liverpool football) may have distracted them enough that they fogot to pay attention to the Red Sox. I doubt that their expressionless, dull though young, general manager will succeed.

[Mike D.]

Interesting to note the way Bobby Valentine was discharged in that Terry Collins of the Mets seems to get a free pass, with a poor record and occasional public criticism of his players. In general the players seem to like him, as does the press, and he has been signed through 2013.

Interesting...is he kind of a "Bobby V Lite"? If Bobby V was "a little" all those characteristics, he probably would have survived. Unfortunately, he's "a lot" those things...all the time. He was throwing people under busses so fast, they were running out of busses.

It's true that the Red Sox management didn't have to contend with the results of Madoff, but their other interests (motor sports, Liverpool football) may have distracted them enough that they fogot to pay attention to the Red Sox. I doubt that their expressionless, dull though young, general manager will succeed.

I think that the Valentine hiring was Lucchino sticking his nose into baseball operations when he shouldn't. Maybe they should send him to Liverpool!

The GM had a year full of injuries, a clown of a manager who he didn't want, a team that was 90% constructed when he took over, and limited payroll flexibility. We'll see what he does going forward. I feel it's too soon to pass judgement on him quiet yet.

Of course, with the team's new-found financial flexibility, he's going to have to every opportunity to build the team he wants. If it doesn't work out, it's on him.

[9&10]

Of course, with the team's new-found financial flexibility, he's going to have to every opportunity to build the team he wants. If it doesn't work out, it's on him.

So how long do you give him? Given this year's FA crop, you gotta give him at least two years.

[Mike D.]

So how long do you give him? Given this year's FA crop, you gotta give him at least two years.

Pretty much what I'm thinking. We may not be able to give him a final grade in 2 years...but we'll have a very strong indication if he's going in the right direction or not.

[Blue387]

Interesting...is he kind of a "Bobby V Lite"? If Bobby V was "a little" all those characteristics, he probably would have survived. Unfortunately, he's "a lot" those things...all the time. He was throwing people under busses so fast, they were running out of busses.

Terry Collins angry after loss
Terry Collins was understandably confused and angry with his Mets team after they blew a late lead for the second night in a row.

http://web.sny.tv/media/video.jsp?content_id=15456247

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Trade Jacoby Ellsbury, who wont sign anyway and is in his contract year. Trade him for two very good SP prospects. Julio Teheran?

[Mike D.]

Trade Jacoby Ellsbury, who wont sign anyway and is in his contract year. Trade him for two very good SP prospects. Julio Teheran?

*IF* they can get two very good SP prospects for him, I bet they move him. Whether teams will offer that or not (based on all the same reasons the Sox are willing to move hm) remains to be seen.

If the return isn't "full price", then you might as well keep him and 1) Try to compete in 2013 2) Try again in July to trade him or 3) Collect the draft pick for him when he signs elsewhere.

[Therwil Flyer]

Sox reportedly in talks with Ortiz and Ross. I'd like to resign both, at the right price, that is.

I'm ok with giving two years to Ortiz, fully aware that it's quite a risk and an overpay (as no one will offer him much, once the Sox made him a qualifying offer).

As for Ross, plenty of people suggest giving him a 3 year deal in the $8m to $10m range. That's madness! I like Ross a lot, but people need to keep in mind that he still essentially is (albeit very good) platoon player. His 2012 slash line is .267 .326 .481, but he hit .256 .308 .422 against righties with 27.5% k-rate! Other teams should also be aware that some of his power is a product of playing half his games at Fenway (home: .298 .356 .565; away: .232 .294 .390). 2 years at $8m or $9m or 3 years at $6m or $7m seem more than fair (I'd prefer 2/6).

If they can't agree with Ross, a cheaper alternative (sort of this year's Cody Ross) could be Jonny Gomes. He hit .262 .377 .491 with the A's, has similar LHP/RHP splits, and has been a beast outside of the Coliseum (away: .273 .409 .578). His defense is very shaky, but I'd really like his hitting in Fenway. Maybe they can sign him to play LF (share some time with Nava (hit .269 .383 .414 vs RHP)/Kalish and maybe Lin as a late inning defensive sub).

[Therwil Flyer]

Trade Jacoby Ellsbury, who wont sign anyway and is in his contract year. Trade him for two very good SP prospects. Julio Teheran?

*IF* they can get two very good SP prospects for him, I bet they move him. Whether teams will offer that or not (based on all the same reasons the Sox are willing to move hm) remains to be seen.

If the return isn't "full price", then you might as well keep him and 1) Try to compete in 2013 2) Try again in July to trade him or 3) Collect the draft pick for him when he signs elsewhere.

I'm split on whether I want to trade Ells or not. It would be madness to sign him to a major contract right now. Basically he's had one (ONE) mvp-esque year. On the one hand not trading him now (but rather at the deadline) might alow him to reestablish some value. On the other hand, trading him at the deadline, will automatically lower his value to the acquiring team (because if they fail to extend him, they won't get comp picks).

So, I don't know yet really. If they get a very good deal (aka young starting pitching, Andrus etc..) then I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat though!

[dominik]

the problem with ellsbury is that his value is much lower than last season especially due to the injury. so you will get much less for him than a year ago. I would only trade him if someone is willing to pay a reasonable price which I'm not sure someone will at this point.

If you only get some B-level prospects or a 5th starter for him you might wait if he gives you a good next season.