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  • #91
    Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    I'm not sure what the point is of trading away Ellsbury and then go acquire Justin Upton. Basically, you trade away one CFer with MVP potential who is going to get expensive a year from now, and then need the entire prospect haul plus more to acquire another CFer with MVP potential who is fairly expensive for the next three years and then will get really expensive. Of course Upton is a tremendous player, no question, but I'm not sure it makes sense at this point.

    Chris Young is an interesting player. Are there any indications that he is on the block? As for Montero, I've been a fan for a while. But I don't think there is any chance you can acquire him without massively overpaying. Mauro Gomez, for me, isn't the answer at 1B (maybe in a platoon role with Sands? But their splits are really to small of a sample).
    The point is that Ellsbury is almost assuredly gone after 2013, unless the Sox want to pony up some big bucks to keep him. But with Boras as his agent, I have little doubt he’ll test the FA market and go to the highest bidder. Will that be the Red Sox?

    Though Ellsbury is an excellent player, he’s had one MVP type year which as Mike D pointed out is more the exception then the rule, so I’d want to see him put up a 2011 type year again before I’d want to pay him big bucks long term. To me the point of trading him now is to get something more then just a sandwich pick when he leaves.

    Justin Upton is under contract for three more years through 2015 at a fairly reasonable rate imo, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M. Sometimes I forget how young Justin Upton is, he’s only 25, plays RF and hit .280/.355/.430 in 2012, and I believe will get even better in the next few years.

    Most players peak in their late 20’s, if Upton is traded for, we might end up getting some of his most productive years and by his 3rd year he may be an important part of a playoff run for the Sox.

    I’m not sure what they’d want in trade or even if Upton's available in trade which I now hear he’s not, but I think he’s worth at least talking to the D-backs about.

    CF Chris Young is under contract for 2013 for 8.5 million with a club option for 2014 at 11 million or a 1.5 million buyout. He’s been talked about as being up for trade here in AZ. Here’s some clips from a local newspaper;

    The Diamondbacks have too many outfielders for too few positions, and though their off-season barely has begun, they’ve already begun to explore the trade market, reaching out to clubs they identified as being in need of outfield help. They are almost certain to have already talked to other clubs about center fielder Chris Young, but there is another name they're open to discussing, one that might come as a surprise: left fielder Jason Kubel.

    It continues to sound to me like the Diamondbacks are expecting to have Justin Upton as their everyday right fielder, Adam Eaton as their primary center fielder and A.J. Pollock as their fourth outfielder. Also sounds like they’re expecting to deal Young, leaving just the Kubel/Parra outcome to be determined.

    The Diamondbacks are operating under the assumption that they might have to eat some of the money still owed to Young in order to facilitate a trade.
    Young is owed $8.5 million for 2013 in a contract that includes a 2014 option for $11 million that can be bought ought for $1.5 million.
    http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blo...nclick_check=1

    Miguel Montero is almost assuredly not available and I'm sure we would have to over-pay to get him, though depending on how much of an over-pay, imo it might be worth it, having said that I doubt the D-backs would trade him, but you never know until you ask.

    I don’t expect Gomez to have stats like Joey Votto for 2013 but I do think if given a chance he could be a decent player.

    My belief is that unless the Sox pull off amazing trades and or FA signings we probably won’t make the playoffs in 2013 so in a year where we are rebuilding and most likely not in the playoffs, why not give Gomez a chance and see how he develops. And if he does well he could end up being a keeper or perhaps a trade chip down the road.

    Comment


    • #92
      Don't we want an Ellsbury in the final year of his contract playing hard for us?

      2013 Starting Pitchers -

      1. Pitcher To Be Named Later
      2. Jon Lester, 9-14, 4.82
      3. Pitcher To Be Named Later
      4. Clay Buchholz, 11-8, 4.56
      5. Pitcher To Be Named Later

      They have a lot of work to do.
      "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
      "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by TonyK View Post
        Don't we want an Ellsbury in the final year of his contract playing hard for us?

        2013 Starting Pitchers -

        1. Pitcher To Be Named Later
        2. Jon Lester, 9-14, 4.82
        3. Pitcher To Be Named Later
        4. Clay Buchholz, 11-8, 4.56
        5. Pitcher To Be Named Later

        They have a lot of work to do.
        So what are you doing with Lackey?

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by TonyK View Post
          Don't we want an Ellsbury in the final year of his contract playing hard for us?

          2013 Starting Pitchers -

          1. Pitcher To Be Named Later
          2. Jon Lester, 9-14, 4.82
          3. Pitcher To Be Named Later
          4. Clay Buchholz, 11-8, 4.56
          5. Pitcher To Be Named Later

          They have a lot of work to do.
          Originally posted by 9&10 View Post
          So what are you doing with Lackey?
          And Felix Doubront? Or are they two of the pitchers TBNL?
          Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

          Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by Dogdaze View Post
            The point is that Ellsbury is almost assuredly gone after 2013, unless the Sox want to pony up some big bucks to keep him. But with Boras as his agent, I have little doubt he’ll test the FA market and go to the highest bidder. Will that be the Red Sox?

            Though Ellsbury is an excellent player, he’s had one MVP type year which as Mike D pointed out is more the exception then the rule, so I’d want to see him put up a 2011 type year again before I’d want to pay him big bucks long term. To me the point of trading him now is to get something more then just a sandwich pick when he leaves.

            Justin Upton is under contract for three more years through 2015 at a fairly reasonable rate imo, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M. Sometimes I forget how young Justin Upton is, he’s only 25, plays RF and hit .280/.355/.430 in 2012, and I believe will get even better in the next few years.

            Most players peak in their late 20’s, if Upton is traded for, we might end up getting some of his most productive years and by his 3rd year he may be an important part of a playoff run for the Sox.

            I’m not sure what they’d want in trade or even if Upton's available in trade which I now hear he’s not, but I think he’s worth at least talking to the D-backs about.

            CF Chris Young is under contract for 2013 for 8.5 million with a club option for 2014 at 11 million or a 1.5 million buyout. He’s been talked about as being up for trade here in AZ. Here’s some clips from a local newspaper;



            http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blo...nclick_check=1

            Miguel Montero is almost assuredly not available and I'm sure we would have to over-pay to get him, though depending on how much of an over-pay, imo it might be worth it, having said that I doubt the D-backs would trade him, but you never know until you ask.

            I don’t expect Gomez to have stats like Joey Votto for 2013 but I do think if given a chance he could be a decent player.

            My belief is that unless the Sox pull off amazing trades and or FA signings we probably won’t make the playoffs in 2013 so in a year where we are rebuilding and most likely not in the playoffs, why not give Gomez a chance and see how he develops. And if he does well he could end up being a keeper or perhaps a trade chip down the road.
            Fair points.

            My point about Upton is that he is very expensive both in terms of prospects to acquire him and in terms of money owed (he will be an FA not before the end of the 2015 season, but after this year he is starting to get expensive and will need a monster contract to keep him after that.). I might be a little more down on Upton than others, just because I think it will take a king's ransom to trade for him (way more than you would get as a return for Ells). If the Sox give up major talent, then in my opinon, it must be for a young (potential) top of the rotation SP.

            I firmly believe that the Sox, with a couple of smart additions, have the potential to be contending even in 2013. It should not be the goal of this offseason to build a contender for 2013 but a team that is a annual top contender starting in a year or two. I laid out a possible plan above, that includes acquiring young high impact talent without emptying the farm or sign any contracts that take away the new found financial flexibility (I don't know if this plan is realistic, but it's certainly not crazy).

            And yes, I realize that one of my propositions above was to trade a young prospect pitcher away for a position player (no less a 1B), but that is because I think that particular pitching prospect is overrated.
            Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

            Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
              I firmly believe that the Sox, with a couple of smart additions, have the potential to be contending even in 2013. It should not be the goal of this offseason to build a contender for 2013 but a team that is a annual top contender starting in a year or two..
              I think this is the key of it all...unless they're getting top young talent, they shouldn't be trading prospects of any consequence. But if they can acquire players signed short-term (either as FA or inexpensive trades) who will help in 2013, they should do that, but that's not the primary goal. So, build for the future, but don't give up on 2013/14.

              The Sox have some money to spend in the short term, and they would do well to spend it in the short-term, not on long term deals. Maybe you pick up someone's overpaid vet who can help, but is cheap because of his salary. If that player does well in 2013 and the Sox are competing....awesome. If the player plays well and the Sox aren't in the race, you eat some money and trade him for a prospect.
              Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                And Felix Doubront? Or are they two of the pitchers TBNL?
                To contend for the pennant Doubront could be #5 and Lackey a big question mark. They really need to go after a solid #1 and a decent #3. Who do they have that you can pencil in for 15 to 20 wins?

                They came up with Pedro, Schilling, and Beckett so lets see who they sign with their millions in cash.
                "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
                "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

                Comment


                • #98
                  Originally posted by TonyK View Post
                  To contend for the pennant Doubront could be #5 and Lackey a big question mark. They really need to go after a solid #1 and a decent #3. Who do they have that you can pencil in for 15 to 20 wins?

                  They came up with Pedro, Schilling, and Beckett so lets see who they sign with their millions in cash.
                  I tend to agree on the solid #1. At this point I think Lester is really a no 2 more than staff ace. But I think Buchholz can definitely be a very solid #3. But thos #1 starters just don't grow on trees so we might have to be a bit patient here.
                  Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                  Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    I would not yet give up on lester. yes he had a bad season but he is still relatively young and could maybe come back.
                    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by dominik View Post
                      I would not yet give up on lester. yes he had a bad season but he is still relatively young and could maybe come back.
                      I'm not giving up on Lester at all! But I think at this point you cannot plan ahead and assume he will be an ace* (as I for one did circa 2009/2010). Of course these ace types don't exactly grow on trees, and you have to be really smart to find one (maybe the best way is to acquire someone like Teheran and develop him, but you of course might fail).

                      I think very important for the pitchers - and maybe more so than the manager - will be finding a good pitching coach and keeping that pitching coach, so there is some continuity for once.

                      *By ace, I mean, not necessarily your designated no 1 starter, but someone you can rely on to dominate most of the times you send him out. Your CC Sabathia/Felix Hernandez-type pitcher.
                      Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 10-18-2012, 06:15 AM.
                      Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                      Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                      Comment


                      • Note to mods: Can we make this sticky? Maybe in place of the regular season thread. Many thanks!
                        Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

                        Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
                          Note to mods: Can we make this sticky? Maybe in place of the regular season thread. Many thanks!
                          i sent them a message

                          Comment


                          • Signing Terry Francona as manager helped them later sign Curt Schilling. I hope they sign someone with connections who can bring a few good players with him.
                            "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
                            "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

                            Comment


                            • The more time goes by, the more i am down on Farrell. I think he would be fine in Boston, but i am really liking Tony Pena for some reason.

                              Comment


                              • Any guy we have to give up compensation for...I say NO
                                sigpicMan, do I *HATE* the Yankees!!!!!!

                                Comment

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