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Cleveland Indians: How soon will they be back to the World Series?

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  • Cleveland Indians: How soon will they be back to the World Series?

    Was Cleveland a flash in the pan in 2016?....a team that was lucky just to reach the Series?
    Or will they be a force to be reckoned with over the next few years, with a good chance of reaching the Series again soon , and next time triumphing?
    Your thoughts, please...

  • #2
    Originally posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    Was Cleveland a flash in the pan in 2016?....a team that was lucky just to reach the Series?
    Or will they be a force to be reckoned with over the next few years, with a good chance of reaching the Series again soon , and next time triumphing?
    Your thoughts, please...
    Lucky? They were preaseason projection systems favorites to win their division who finished 2nd in a loaded AL in both runs scored and runs allowed. They were one pitch from winning a WS without their 2nd and 3rd best starters. If anything...they were unlucky.

    And there is no way of knowing when they will be back to the WS again. They could average 95 wins the next three seasons and never make it out of the first round due to randmness.

    If the real question is "will the Indians be good enough to make the postseason tournament over the next few years" the answer is "of course". They have 3 very good starters, a great bullpen, and a deep and balanced lineup. There success in 2016 was not surprising to anyone who looked at their 2015 peripherals or 2016 prpjections. Filling teams with lower cost average to good players at every posistion is the new market efficiency. It is cheaper and more effective than the Stars and Scrubs approach.
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    • #3
      Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
      Lucky? They were preaseason projection systems favorites to win their division who finished 2nd in a loaded AL in both runs scored and runs allowed. They were one pitch from winning a WS without their 2nd and 3rd best starters. If anything...they were unlucky.

      And there is no way of knowing when they will be back to the WS again. They could average 95 wins the next three seasons and never make it out of the first round due to randmness.

      If the real question is "will the Indians be good enough to make the postseason tournament over the next few years" the answer is "of course". They have 3 very good starters, a great bullpen, and a deep and balanced lineup. There success in 2016 was not surprising to anyone who looked at their 2015 peripherals or 2016 prpjections. Filling teams with lower cost average to good players at every posistion is the new market efficiency. It is cheaper and more effective than the Stars and Scrubs approach.
      They were an 81-80 team in 2015. I don't recall them being the favorite to win their division, nor were they favored to win each round of the playoffs or the series. They were Underdogs all the way.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
        They were an 81-80 team in 2015. I don't recall them being the favorite to win their division, nor were they favored to win each round of the playoffs or the series. They were Underdogs all the way.
        They vastly underperformed their run differential and peripherals in 2015. And they most certainly were projected to win the division based on the projection systems (Marceks, ZIPs, Steamer, etc.) Im not talking about the predictions of morons like Harold Reynolds or the clowns on ESPN. The Indians were 2nd in runs allowed and runs scored in the very good AL. They were underdogs vs. the Cubs and Sox who are by far the best two teams in baseball. They would have been favored vs. the Jays with a healthy staff. None of that means they weren't really good or lucky. With luck, theyd be champs now. The Indians were clearly one of the 4-5 best teams in baseball in a sport whete any of the top 12 or so teams can win it all. There is no reason to think they couldnt be a top 12 type team for enough years to make another playoff push. When can they win a WS? Like about 11-12 other teams.

        People really underestimate them because of a lack of household names. But this is the new market efficiency.
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        • #5
          Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
          They vastly underperformed their run differential and peripherals in 2015. And they most certainly were projected to win the division based on the projection systems (Marceks, ZIPs, Steamer, etc.) Im not talking about the predictions of morons like Harold Reynolds or the clowns on ESPN. The Indians were 2nd in runs allowed and runs scored in the very good AL. They were underdogs vs. the Cubs and Sox who are by far the best two teams in baseball. They would have been favored vs. the Jays with a healthy staff. None of that means they weren't really good or lucky. With luck, theyd be champs now. The Indians were clearly one of the 4-5 best teams in baseball in a sport whete any of the top 12 or so teams can win it all. There is no reason to think they couldnt be a top 12 type team for enough years to make another playoff push. When can they win a WS? Like about 11-12 other teams.

          People really underestimate them because of a lack of household names. But this is the new market efficiency.
          The "clowns" on ESPN and MLB network still have a lot more influence and team image-shaping ability than all the "New Stat" methods put together. Mainly because most of them actually played major league baseball, were successful at it and know what it takes to succeed, both individually and as a team.

          Comment


          • #6
            I think it's impossible to say due to the crapshoot nature of the post-season. The powerhouse Indians teams of 1996 and 1999 didn't make it past the first round, but the mediocre 1997 team made it to the World Series.
            Last edited by EdTarbusz; 11-12-2016, 12:27 PM.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by EdTarbusz View Post
              I think it's impossible to say due to the crapshoot nature of the post-season.
              That's so TRUE! You can usually throw out the regular season records, although occasionally a team with the best regular season record of both leagues does eventually become the world's champion. (ie; 2009 NY Yankees). The rule seems to be whoever gets hot at the right time and stays healthy has the best chance of taking it all. We've had a few Wild Card champions and a number of other Wild Cards that won league championships and at least made it to the World Series. We've even had an all-Wild Card world Series (in 2002 LA ANGELS DEFEATING THE San Francisco Giants). So MLB's Post-Season is undeniably one of the world's biggest crapshoots.

              Comment


              • #8
                Yup. The question is always is a team good enough to make the tournament. The Indians are certainly one of the teams good enough to make multiple appearances the next several seasons.
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
                  The "clowns" on ESPN and MLB network still have a lot more influence and team image-shaping ability than all the "New Stat" methods put together. Mainly because most of them actually played major league baseball, were successful at it and know what it takes to succeed, both individually and as a team.
                  the guys from fangraphs now get hired all the time by MLB Teams (kiley mcdaniel, August fagerstrom for example). times have changed a guy like Harold reynolds or Curt Schilling wouldn't make it to a MLB front Office anymore.

                  cleveland were the favorite for the Al central in 2016 but to be fair that has been clearly the worst Division of the AL in the last 2-3 years.

                  cleveland has a nice core but I'm still a Little sceptical. they could easily be the second best AL Team again but they don't have a ton of depth or financial ressources. I think for 2016 they should be favored to win the Division because the twins and White sox will be absolutely terrible and KC and Detroit are on the decline.

                  In the AL everything can happen. there isn't really a flawless Team. Boston is probably the best Team on paper with a lot of Quality in the field but their Rotation depth is thin and one or two injuries and they are bad. Toronto is on the way down, and baltimore and Texas did have quite a bit of luck.

                  that leaves Boston at the top, then maybe Houston (but also questionable Rotation) and cleveland as top Teams of the league. so cleveland has solid chances but the Odds are still probably like 85-15 against them at least due to pure Chance.
                  I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by dominik View Post
                    the guys from fangraphs now get hired all the time by MLB Teams (kiley mcdaniel, August fagerstrom for example). times have changed a guy like Harold reynolds or Curt Schilling wouldn't make it to a MLB front Office anymore.

                    .
                    Exactly. Every team in the MLB has analytic guys heading or at least heavily involved in drafting, scouting, and player development. Every single team has multiple analytics consultants and big-shots in the FO. None of these teams call up ESPN analysts or random ex-players to make personnel decisions. We have to remember that it is the TV analysts that keep thinking the 2015 Padres or White Sox or 2016 D-backs (and so forth) were going to contend. The projection systems knew better, etc. The projection systems said the Indians would be very good in 2016 and were.

                    I agree with you - the Indians are probably around the 2nd-4th best team in the AL. Certainly good enough to win a WS, though as it is with every team, unlikely to do so in any given year.
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