2013 ZiPS projections

[filihok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-detroit-tigers/

Tigers-Depth.png


Outstanding pitching staff.
Excellent team.

Tigers should walk away with the AL Central, of course, I said that last year too.

Miguel Cabrera (.394/.561 35 HR) and Prince Fielder (.397/.499 30 HR) will pace the offense.
ZiPS doesn't like Austin Jackson to be as good as last year but .341/.418 with good defense makes him a 3.5 WAR player.

But the Tigers' 6 starters who project to be major league average is the real reason this team is so good.
Verlander: 221 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.06 FIP about 25% better than league average
Sherzer: 187 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.54 FIP about 10% better than league average
Fister: 171 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP about 8% better than league average
Sanchez: 185 IP, 4.23 ERA, 3.85 FIP about 4% better than league average
Porcello: 179 IP, 4.73 ERA, 4.04 FIP about 5% worse than league average
Smyly: 167 IP, 4.20 ERA, 3.93 FIP about 2% better than league average

No other team's starters can match up.

[Captain Cold Nose]

It confirms the addition by subtraction in not resigning Delmon Young. If this teams holds up, they should make waves.

A balanced offense, the starters to come through and stay healthy and the bullpen to stay strong. That's what the Tigers will need to reach expectations. But, then, what team doesn't need that? The making of continued success are there.

[DClutch]

This is looking like the most complete Tigers team in a long time. They still have another move to make though, the addition of a RHH left fielder to play w/ Dirks.

They have two of the biggest hitters in the game, a great 5 tool centerfielder, and some nice complimentary pieces like Hunter, Avila, Infante.

I look forward to much improved defense

[mi-billyb]

Potentially a great team, if Leyland lets the hot hitters play, too often he benches the hot hitters for the left right match ups. If a player is hot, it doesn't matter who is on the mound. That thinking hurt us in the series and The big Mo quickly went to SF when Garcia (who I like, but was not ready), looked bad and offensively took us out of big innings. By the way, Dirks was hitting well during the ALC games. You don't take out 300 hitters for an unproven for the world series.
Pitching will get us there again, but??????????
By the way, I'm new to this forum, sorry, I got on my soapbox before I mentioned that. So hello to all you Detroit fans, I am looking forward to this season.

Is anyone from Mich that has a lot of experience or knowledge in wire photos?

Mi-billyb

[filihok]

Potentially a great team, if Leyland lets the hot hitters play, too often he benches the hot hitters for the left right match ups. If a player is hot, it doesn't matter who is on the mound.

Do you have any evidence that hot hitters will continue to be hot?

There is ample evidence that hot streaks are not predictive of any future increased offense

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/strategy-on-streaky-players-dont-trust-the-streak/

Hot streakers
During the streak: .587 wOBA
Expected wOBA (just a 3-year average for the players): .365
Actual wOBA in game after streak: .369
Actual wOBA in five games after streak: .369

Cold streakers
During the streak: .151 wOBA
Expected wOBA (3-year average again): .336
Actual wOBA in first game after streak: .330
Actual wOBA in five games after streak: .332

So, is there anything predictive about hot and cold streaks? Yes, there is…but it’s slight. If you pick up an insanely hot player, or bench an insanely cold player, you get about 5 points of wOBA (a bit less than 5 points of OBP) of predictive power. 5 measley points! This is quite frankly worthless in terms of making fantasy baseball decisions. You’ll do far better relying on a player’s overall talent than trying to catch a hot streak or avoid a cold streak–because chances are, by the time you react, it’s already over.

[mi-billyb]

Filihok,
You definitely do your homework. Are those hot streaks, team streaks or player streaks? An individual player is what I am talking about, but have no evidence, just observation. I know what you mean about the left and right matchups, (would make a good thread), and stats do support that theory, but there are exceptions. As you said, "You are better off relying on a players talent than trying to catch a hot streak". I agree, Dirks was a proven hitter against lefties, Leyland made a mistake. I am from old school, if a player can hit, then let him hit. Rely on their talent.
You seem to be an avid Tiger fan, ggrrrreat. As I am.

mi-billyb

[filihok]

You seem to be an avid Tiger fan, ggrrrreat. As I am.

Nope. Dodgers

You definitely do your homework. Are those hot streaks, team streaks or player streaks?

If you clicked on the link and read the article (always a good thing to do) you would have read that the study was referring to individual players.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Welcome mi-billyb.

[mi-billyb]

Thanx Captain, glad to be here.

Filihok,, Dodgers, that surprised me, good organization, great history, good team to root for. Especially against the Yanks in the 50s and 60s. Your opinion, Tory Hunter will help the Tigs defensively, how about offensively this year?

[filihok]

Your opinion, Tory Hunter will help the Tigs defensively, how about offensively this year?

Tigers' RFers hit .285/.357 (on base percentage and slugging percentage) last season.
*http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...year=2012#defp

Hunter is projected to hit .344/.438

So, yes, huge upgrade.

[mi-billyb]

Thanx Filihok,

[Ben Grimm]

Matt Tuiasosopo knocks another dinger today. He may be playing himself onto the 25-man roster as a bench OFer.

[riverfrontier]

Tuiasosopo. Rolls right off the tongue if you've heard it said a few times. (it really does) What would Donk Elly have to say about it? I'm not happy with the bullpen, so whoever replaces Brennan (stupid Hollywood name) Boesch is less of a concern for me than having Dotel/Benoit/Coke as the ninth inning guys. No, I don't believe Rondon is ready. More than likely, he's the next Brennan Boesch, but we shall see.


By the way, we're soon going to need a 2013 game thread going. Who's gonna do that?

[riverfrontier]

As I was typing the last post, Matt Tuiasosopo just homered off of Stephen Strasburg. Shades of Chris Shelton. But...maybe....nah. So many scouts can't be that wrong about him. Can they? Mike Piazza?