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  • PECOTA Predictions on the AL East

    http://yanksfansoxfan.typepad.com/ys...ting-th-1.html

    We win! I love how in Joe Sheehan's Column on the AL East he says the Yankees are "serious underdogs" in the AL East after looking at this all I can do is:

    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  • #2
    "I'm not going to get into how likely this is, just from the standpoint of seeing two 100-win teams in the same division." - Bingo. I'm not saying the Yankees cant win by two games, but two 100 win teams? Seriously doubt that.

    Also, this seems contingent upon Joba being the rotation. Unless hes going to throw 140 innings+ from the bullpen. Someone needs to read that and throw him in the rotation.
    Originally posted by Domenic
    The Yankees should see if Yogi Berra can still get behind the plate - he has ten World Series rings... he must be worth forty or fifty million a season.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Westlake View Post
      "I'm not going to get into how likely this is, just from the standpoint of seeing two 100-win teams in the same division." - Bingo. I'm not saying the Yankees cant win by two games, but two 100 win teams? Seriously doubt that.
      If the Os trade Bedard that will put them into a category of suck that was reserved for the Royals from 03-06, also I'm not that high on the Jays either. I can see both of those teams being 100 loss teams, and the D-Rays winning maybe 80 games.


      Also, this seems contingent upon Joba being the rotation. Unless hes going to throw 140 innings+ from the bullpen. Someone needs to read that and throw him in the rotation.
      They'll probably have him throw around 30 innings in the pen, to keep him fresh down the stretch and for the playoffs. Not that bad of an idea.
      "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

      "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
        If the Os trade Bedard that will put them into a category of suck that was reserved for the Royals from 03-06, also I'm not that high on the Jays either. I can see both of those teams being 100 loss teams, and the D-Rays winning maybe 80 games.
        The Blue Jays are not going to lose anything close to 100 games. The Blue Jays have not lost 100 games since 1979 (their third year in existence), and during that time they've had years where they've looked to have much worse teams than they have going into this year. The last couple of years they've finished above .500 and have won at least 80 games the last 3 years. Their team remains largely intact and they have some good young pitchers. They likely again won't be able to stick with the Red Sox and Yankees, but predicting 100 losses for them is beyond hyperbole, IMO. It is a difficult thing to lose 100 games, and given the Jays recent history and roster, I just don't see it at all.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by DoubleX View Post
          The Blue Jays are not going to lose anything close to 100 games. The Blue Jays have not lost 100 games since 1979 (their third year in existence), and during that time they've had years where they've looked to have much worse teams than they have going into this year. The last couple of years they've finished above .500 and have won at least 80 games the last 3 years. Their team remains largely intact and they have some good young pitchers. They likely again won't be able to stick with the Red Sox and Yankees, but predicting 100 losses for them is beyond hyperbole, IMO. It is a difficult thing to lose 100 games, and given the Jays recent history and roster, I just don't see it at all.
          Actually they have a chronic underachiever as their starting center fielder and keystone of the team. Their top two starters have plenty of trouble staying healthy, BJ Ryan is coming off a huge injury, Frank Thomas won't have another year like 2006 ever again, they signed the most overrated player in baseball to play shortstop, Scott Rolen is a big injury risk, Lyle Overbay kind of sucks too. I can easily see them being a 70 win team, after that 100 losses isn't too far out of the picture.
          "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

          "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
            Actually they have a chronic underachiever as their starting center fielder and keystone of the team. Their top two starters have plenty of trouble staying healthy, BJ Ryan is coming off a huge injury, Frank Thomas won't have another year like 2006 ever again, they signed the most overrated player in baseball to play shortstop, Scott Rolen is a big injury risk, Lyle Overbay kind of sucks too. I can easily see them being a 70 win team, after that 100 losses isn't too far out of the picture.
            And yet with virtually all these same components they've finished above .500 the past two years. On the flip-side of every negative there, is also a hypothetical positive which isn't that far out of being realistic. I also think you're grossly underrating just how difficult it is to lose 100 games. The Blue Jays are certainly not a great team and will need a lot of things going for them to remain as competitive as they have been the past few years, but you're vastly underrating them, IMO. I would say they look to me like a 75-80 win team.

            Comment


            • #7
              All I can say is that baseball is something that's very strategic in nature. You can force someone's hand by simply stealing a base, so if you take away the DP with 1 out, this turns a "corner runners with 1 out, slow guy at the plate" into "two RISP, 1 out" thing. A sac fly would add a run, which could be the tying or go-ahead run.

              I don't care which stats show what, even pitching stats, since you could just as easily win a game 11-9 as you could 2-1. Who's to say that the Yanks or Red Sox will have more inner drive in 2008?

              Like they say in stocks, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. You take your chance, hope for similar results, but in the end, nobody's certain of anything.

              If the team works well under Girardi, is focused on pushing up the runners and scoring guys, especially the leadoff walk (which seemed like a true adventure from us in the past), doesn't look like they're facing Cy Nobody when the guy's either a southpaw, has a 7.00+ ERA or an unusual delivery (like Wakefield's knuckleball, etc), then we'll have progressed.

              I just want a nice smooth season, fewer heartaches and less need for having a large bottle of Maalox, Pepto-Bismol, etc. Just win the 1-run games and let offense, defense, pitching win you games, not just offense.
              Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
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              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mattingly View Post

                I just want a nice smooth season, fewer heartaches and less need for having a large bottle of Maalox, Pepto-Bismol, etc. Just win the 1-run games and let offense, defense, pitching win you games, not just offense.
                IMO the Red Sox are still highly favored over the Yankees.

                But like you said Matt, I want a smooth season with less ups and downs. A stable season that is more up than down of course.

                When I see the trades that have been made in our league, I think that the Orioles might end near the cellar the coming season. IMO the other two teams may give the Sox and the Yanks a hard time. I won't say that they will reach the play offs, but I think they might contend for quite some time into the season. Maybe that is wishful thinking. But it would make the season a lot more interesting and more exiting.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Westlake View Post
                  "I'm not going to get into how likely this is, just from the standpoint of seeing two 100-win teams in the same division." - Bingo. I'm not saying the Yankees cant win by two games, but two 100 win teams? Seriously doubt that.
                  Came pretty close, acually. If the Sox and Yanx had played up to pythag they would have had 101 wins and 97, respectively.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Imgran View Post
                    Came pretty close, acually. If the Sox and Yanx had played up to pythag they would have had 101 wins and 97, respectively.
                    I would rather reverse those numbers: Boston 97(losses) and the Yanks 101 (wins).

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Imgran View Post
                      Came pretty close, acually. If the Sox and Yanx had played up to pythag they would have had 101 wins and 97, respectively.
                      But we don't have the greatest managers in the world.

                      Even then, 97 isn't 100. 3 games is a pretty big difference. And I dont necessary think both teams have gotten much better.
                      Originally posted by Domenic
                      The Yankees should see if Yogi Berra can still get behind the plate - he has ten World Series rings... he must be worth forty or fifty million a season.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
                        Actually they have a chronic underachiever as their starting center fielder and keystone of the team. Their top two starters have plenty of trouble staying healthy, BJ Ryan is coming off a huge injury, Frank Thomas won't have another year like 2006 ever again, they signed the most overrated player in baseball to play shortstop, Scott Rolen is a big injury risk, Lyle Overbay kind of sucks too. I can easily see them being a 70 win team, after that 100 losses isn't too far out of the picture.
                        You seem to be extrapolating entirely from this year's performances.

                        1: Vernon Wells ~ Torii Hunter. Both men are great fielders with huge power who think that a BB is a metal pellet hat hurts when you get shot with it. For a chronic underachiever, Wells sure hits a lot of HR's and RBI's. Either Wells isn't exactly the underachiever you think he is, or it's a testament to just how badly Hunter is overrated.

                        2: Burnett's injury histories are real, but slightly overblown. Burnett pitched 165 innings this year, a reasonable increase from last year's 135. You want more from a #2, but what he gave was not bad.

                        Halladay meanwhile tried to pitch through appendicitis and even though he had to sit out from it, he managed more than 220 innings for the second straight season and the the 4th out of the last 6. Far from being injury prone, Halladay is an absolute horse, better than Chien Ming Wang (more IP's. more K's, fewer walks).

                        3: I grant you B. J. Ryan, but before you celebrate too hard over him: Jeremy Accardo did a very good job as closer last year -- Ryan is hardly irreplaceable. The quality of the Jays' bullpen is perhaps the best kept secret in baseball.

                        4: Need I remind you that going into the season Lyle Overbay was the best of the three starting first basemen between your team, mine and his? He was derailed from injuries, but he's a much better defender than Giambi, he's got more power than Youk or Mienkiewicz. I'm not worried about Overbay if I'm a Jays fan. I'm more worried about him if I'm a Yankee fan, because he represents Toronto's biggest roster advantage over New York right now.

                        5: I bet you were saying the same thing about the Big HGHurt last year. At least he looks better in a Toronto uni.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          --The Blue Jays have a better chance of winning 90 than losing 100. I'm run a bunch of DiamondMinds sims using the ZIPS projection since they came out a couple days ago and they have been very competitive. Maybe you don't think much of ZIPS, but they should be better than last year and they were a decent club in 2007.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            On the subject of PECOTA the pythag wins for each team were 97 for New York and 95 for Boston IIRC.
                            "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

                            "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

                            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Imgran View Post
                              You seem to be extrapolating entirely from this year's performances.

                              1: Vernon Wells ~ Torii Hunter. Both men are great fielders with huge power who think that a BB is a metal pellet hat hurts when you get shot with it. For a chronic underachiever, Wells sure hits a lot of HR's and RBI's. Either Wells isn't exactly the underachiever you think he is, or it's a testament to just how badly Hunter is overrated.
                              I'd say the later.


                              2: Burnett's injury histories are real, but slightly overblown. Burnett pitched 165 innings this year, a reasonable increase from last year's 135. You want more from a #2, but what he gave was not bad.
                              Fair enough

                              Halladay meanwhile tried to pitch through appendicitis and even though he had to sit out from it, he managed more than 220 innings for the second straight season and the the 4th out of the last 6. Far from being injury prone, Halladay is an absolute horse, better than Chien Ming Wang (more IP's. more K's, fewer walks).
                              Being better than Wang is not something to be proud of, Halladay if he could stay healthy would be a Kevin Brown type pitcher.

                              3: I grant you B. J. Ryan, but before you celebrate too hard over him: Jeremy Accardo did a very good job as closer last year -- Ryan is hardly irreplaceable. The quality of the Jays' bullpen is perhaps the best kept secret in baseball.
                              Perhaps.


                              4: Need I remind you that going into the season Lyle Overbay was the best of the three starting first basemen between your team, mine and his? He was derailed from injuries, but he's a much better defender than Giambi, he's got more power than Youk or Mienkiewicz. I'm not worried about Overbay if I'm a Jays fan. I'm more worried about him if I'm a Yankee fan, because he represents Toronto's biggest roster advantage over New York right now.
                              He's still not even Jorge Posada offensively, I view him as the team's best hitter this season.

                              5: I bet you were saying the same thing about the Big HGHurt last year. At least he looks better in a Toronto uni.
                              I say Thomas is clean, but in Oakland he had a 140 OPS+ (before the park adjustments) in Toronto he went 125, I say perhaps a 120ish this season.
                              "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

                              "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

                              http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

                              Comment

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