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Yankees/Red Sox Comparison Spring 2008
Now that Spring Training is starting, I thought I'd do what I've done the past few years and give my take on the two teams I'm most familiar with - the Yankees and Red Sox. Please keep in mind that I try to be as fair and objective as possible and that in the past few years I think I've been pretty accurate with things. However, I admit that bias might subconsciously seep in and that my observation might connote a greater familiarity with the Yankees.
Catcher
Yankees: Jorge Posada is coming off a career year and one of the best offensive seasons ever by a catcher. He'll be 36 this year, so there is naturally concern that he will decline, and it is unlikely that he'll repeat last year's performance. Even assuming some decline, Posada has a long way to go to even being just an above-average catcher. Consider that if you remove 2007 from the equation, his average OPS+ since 2000, when he became the full time catcher, is still an impressive 126 for a catcher. Throw in 2007, and the average goes up to 130. Throw in the fact that Posada is also very durable for a catcher, catching an average of 136 games a season since 2000 and appearing in an average of 143 games. He also doesn't have as much wear and tear as you might think for a 36 year old everyday catcher as he was converted to a catcher fairly late in his minor league career, from 2B (which by itself, evidences some athleticism by Posada that many catchers might not have), and he didn't even catch more than 110 games in the Majors until he was 28. So in sum, I expect Posada will regress next year, but I think he'll play closer to his career norms, which would still put him among the best catchers in the game. Defensively, he doesn't hurt the team. He generally calls a good game and he's pretty good at throwing out runners (though it was down last year). Having Tony Pena around, one of the great defensive catchers, seems to have helped Posada improve defensively. Posada also has a lot of value in that he's a strong clubhouse leader (and perhaps the real captain of the team). I think it's also worth noting that I believe Posada, very quietly for a Yankee, is playing himself into the HoF discussion. He's not there yet, and he might never get there given his age, but it's something to keep in mind over the next few years.
Behind Posada is Jose Molina. I think he's a solid backup catcher. He's very good defensively and he can hit a little. Easily the best backup the Yankees have had since John Flaherty and I think the team feels comfortable with Molina playing a few games here and there and getting Posada some rest or some time at DH. That being said, Posada is probably the most irreplaceable player on the team. If he goes down for any stretch of time, which is certainly possible with a 36 year old catcher, the Yankees will be scrambling to fill the void, both on the field and in the clubhouse. The Yankees need to start thinking about an eventual successor here. Jesus Montero looks like a hitter, but many think he'll change positions before making the big leagues. The team will probably give Francisco Cervelli a good look to see if he might be able to contribute in the not to distant future.
Red Sox: For a few years there, Posada/Varitek was one of those great Yankees/Red Sox comparisons, but while Posada was still going strong at 35, Varitek looked to be in decline at age 35. Don't get me wrong though, Varitek is still an above average to good catcher, he's just a clear notch below Posada at this point. I'd say the decline started in the second half of 2005 after a very strong first half. He was mediocre in 2006, but even then his importance to the team was illustrated when he went down and the club struggled without him. He bounced back somewhat in 2007 and I'd expect a similar year this year, and that would be a pretty good bat for a catcher, good game calling, pretty good defense, and a strong clubhouse presence. It is probably worth noting though that Varitek hasn't been nearly as durable as Posada. For example, while Posada has averaged 136 games caught a year since 2000, Varitek hasn't caught that many games in a season since 2003 and has only twice reached that amount in his entire career (1999 and 2003). So given his age and durability, the Sox have a greater concern about Varitek missing games and having to rely on a backup than the Yankees do.
As for the Red Sox backup, Doug Mirabelli looks again to be the frontrunner. First, I have to get this out of the way - while the Sox have made some good trades in building this team, trading Josh Bard and Cla Meredith to reacquire Mirabelli was just boneheaded. Mirabelli will be on the team for one reason - he can catch Wakefield's knuckleball. Having a guy on the team just because he can catch your 4th or 5th starter (and a guy who might be in the pen by the end of the year), doesn't seem like the best of priorities. Mirabelli does have a little bit of power though and he seems to deliver at least one memorable hit a year that Sox fans (and that might be all Sox fans need from him), but this definitely seems like an area where the Sox could upgrade. Perhaps a strong spring by Kevin Cash or George Kottaras could change the Sox thinking heading into the season. Though I expect Kottaras is destined to start in AAA.
Advantage: Yankees. Varitek is still a good catcher, but sorry Sox fans, Posada is on a different level, even assuming regression.
First Base
Yankees: Ugh, the Yankees situation here is a mess with a lot of guys in the mix. It's impossible to tell right now who will end up getting the bulk of the time (if any of these guys). What I find most silly about the Yankees 1B situation is that they look to have three or four guys that will combine to have numbers like Richie Sexson (in a typical Sexson-like season). If the Yankees wanted Richie Sexson-like production, why not just trade for Richie Sexson, he’s been rumored to have been on the trade block at various points? I’m not advocating getting Sexson, I just don’t see the sense in having three or four guys combine to be Richie Sexson. Anyway, I'll address the candidates in turn:
With Jason Giambi the big question is whether he can stay healthy. If he can stay healthy, then you wonder if he can still produce. It’s possible. In 2005 and 2006, while staying mostly healthy, he was among the league leaders in OPS and OPS+. If he can stay healthy and put up say a 150 OPS+ like he did a couple of years ago, the team can live with his defense at 1B because they’re not going to get close to that kind of production from the other options and this also allows Damon and Matsui to be in the lineup regularly as well. That being said, I have my doubts that Giambi will be able to stay healthy and productive, though I don’t think he’ll be as bad as last year. I’m hoping for a best case scenario that he can stay relatively healthy, play mostly DH, and maybe have a 125-130 OPS+, which I don’t think would be out of the question. It all starts with whether he can stay healthy though, and that’s a big if.
People love the energy and power Shelley Duncan brings, and I have to admit, I'd like to see him win the 1B job. My fear though is that the more he plays, the more holes in his swing will be exposed. Give him 400 ABs, I think he could hit 25 homeruns, but I also think he'd hit under .250 (perhaps considerably so), won't really help himself with OBP, and will strikeout a ton. There's a reason he was in the minors so long (other than just the Yankees former reluctance to use minor leaguers).
I think signing Morgan Ensberg was a good low-risk move. The only way this can hurt the Yankees is if Ensberg is as bad as he was last year and the team plays him anyway. I suspect though that with Torre and his fascination with struggling veterans gone, Ensberg will very much have to earn a spot this spring. I've read that he had some shoulder problems the past couple of years that really hurt his swing. It was just 2005 when he finished 4th in the NL MVP race. If somehow Ensberg, who is just 32, can regain close to that form, this will be a windfall for the Yankees as he has decent power and gets on base. The transition to 1B shouldn't be a problem for him either as he was a good defensive 3Bman.
I don't think Wilson Betemit will be in the mix as much as some he will. I think Morgan Ensberg has leapfrogged Betemit as a 1B option, and that Betemit will be the primary backup IFer, where I think he has much more value to the team than as a starting 1Bman. It's nice that he can play all IF positions, and he'll give you decent power and maybe some OBP for a backup IFer. He’s also only 26, so there’s reason to believe he’ll get better as a hitter.
Jason Lane is likely just camp fodder that the team might keep around at Scranton in the hope that maybe he can help at some point in a pinch. He'd need a big spring, a la Josh Phelps last year, to have a chance.
The Yankees have also brought Chris Woodward in and he'll likely get a look at 1B, but he's more of a utility player whose role is already taken by Betemit. A strong spring could cause the Yankees to keep him around, but he'll also face strong competition from guys like Nick Green and Alberto Gonzalez for that last spot should the team elect to use it on another backup IFer.
Finally, Juan Miranda is someone to watch. He almost certainly doesn't make the team out of Spring Training, but he could factor into the team's plans at some point during the season. While I'm talking about prospects, can we finally call Eric Duncan a bust? He's just never developed as he's gone through the minor league levels.
Actually, I’ll one more name to the list – Nick Johnson. Should none of the above options play well this spring, Johnson could make perfect sense depending on his health. He missed all of last year and he has a track record of injuries, though the Yankees could absorb Johnson missing time given their other options, and he could likely be had for pretty cheap because of his injuries and that the Nationals are committed to Dmitri Young at 1B.
Red Sox: Kevin Youkilis is the type of player most teams would love to have. He hits for average, has some power, fields well, has a good understanding of the game, and plays hard. I’d be a little concerned about his trend the past two seasons of trailing off in the second half. The first time I dismissed it as possible fatigue due to not playing regularly at any level for a couple of years (in that he was either sitting on the Sox bench, or being shuttled back and forth to AAA). But when he did it again last year, I raised an eyebrow. Nevertheless, I don’t believe we’ve seen the best yet from Youkilis, as I think at some point he’ll put a full season together, and this year being his third season as a regular in the Majors, could be it. Hitting .300 with 20-25 homeruns is certainly attainable for Youkilis.
The Sox brought in Sean Casey which should add nice depth to the team and he's supposed to be a strong clubhouse guy. It kind of reminds me though of when the Sox brought in J.T. Snow a few years ago. Snow became upset with his complete lack of playing time. I wonder how often Casey will play. He's used to playing everyday and that likely won't nearly be the case with the Sox. How will he deal with that? He can't argue he didn't know what the situation was coming in. I also wonder if maybe the Sox have some concerns with the health of someone, perhaps Ortiz (who had some problems last year and whose size can be prohibitive of long-term health in baseball). I say this because I don’t think you bring in a veteran like Casey unless you believe he’ll be playing quite a bit.
The Sox also have Chris Carter who has shown a good bat in the minors. His minor league OPS is .909 I actually wonder why at 24 he hasn't had a shot yet. A strong spring could vault him into the team's plans, but I suspect with a logjam of veterans, he'll be starting at AAA and will have to rely on either an injury or a shift to the OF to get time in the big leagues. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes one of the “surprise” players of the year for the Sox.
Lars Anderson is someone to keep an eye on, he's like the Sox version of Miranda except five years younger, and thus with more upside. He's probably still at least a year away though, and probably more like at least two.
Advantage: Red Sox. The Yankees have too many question marks here for this to tip in their favor. Sure, if Ensberg or Giambi play like they did a couple of years ago, or Duncan is a more complete hitter than he looks, this could be close, but who knows right now. Plus, I suspect we haven't yet seen the best of Youkilis yet.
Second Base
Yankees: Cano/Pedroia might be the next great Yankees/Red Sox debate. Addressing Cano first, I said on here during his rookie year that he has no problem putting bat on ball, he just needs to work on his pitch selection and timing, and that as he matures as a player more balls will drop in for hits. That’s happened, and he should continue to improve. He’s also developing as a power hitter, and at just 25 and having shown so much already, the best should be yet to come for him. That being said, he does need to work on taking more walks. You could almost tell that he was trying to do that at times last year, as there were periods that it seemed like he was forcing himself to take first pitches, but in doing so, he also seemed to be uncomfortable for the rest of the AB (I particularly noticed this trend in the first half when he was struggling). It was like by forcing himself to take the first pitch, he lost his aggressiveness and focus, so he'll need to work on being patient but keeping his focus. Defensively, I think he’s better than many give him credit for. He has good range, a good arm, and turns the double play as well as anyone. He does lose focus at times though, and I think there should be a legitimate worry that his defense might regress with Larry Bowa no longer there to ride him.
I kind of already addressed the backup situation under 1B. Betemit looks to be IF backup, and he should be pretty good in that role, but I don't know if I'd want to see Betemit play any position regularly as I think he's good in small doses. Then again, he's just 26, is a switch-hitter, and has shown decent potential as a hitter for a middle IFer, so he might surprise. Alberto Gonzalez is very good defensively and I could see him getting the last roster spot with a good spring, but he's probably destined for AAA or maybe as trade bait. Nick Green and Chris Woodward are veterans in the mix, but I'd say they're both longshots.
Red Sox: Pedroia is the kind of player that fans love. He's a scrapper that makes the most of his ability. However, and Sox fans might not like this, I kind of think he overachieved last year. I just can’t see him hitting .317 again, and at just 5’9 (his listed height), his power potential likely isn’t great. He doesn’t strike out much, but he doesn’t walk much either, so his .380 OBP would likely come down if his BA drops. Defensively, I don’t think he’s as good as some make him out to be. I think the perception with a scrappy/gutty player like Pedroia can often be that they are better defensively than they really are because you can see how much effort they are making (this is the Jeter-theory of looking better defensively than you are, though maybe David Eckstein is a better comparison here). Pedroia looks good because of the effort, but a more physically gifted 2Bman could make the same play more routinely plus others that Pedroia can’t make. This all being said, I think he’ll be a very solid 2Bman, even All Star caliber, I just don’t think he has as much upside as he showed last year, or as much upside as Cano. I kind of see Pedroia as Brian Roberts without the speed, and there's really nothing wrong with that.
Alex Cora looks to be the main IF backup right now. This was another signing I didn't quite get, mostly because of the money. The Sox gave him a 4 mil, 2 year deal, which seemed to be excessive for a player of Cora's role and ability. In comparison, last year the Yankees gave Miguel Cairo, who I believe is a slightly better player than Cora, less than a million for one year. Money aside, Cora does provide solid defense and positional flexibility off the bench though, but he's definitely not someone you want starting regularly.
Advantage: Yankees. Pedroia looks like a very nice player, but I think Cano has more upside and I like that he's been doing this for a few years now whereas Pedroia has just his rookie year.
Shortstop
Yankees: With Jeter there are generally two camps - one that glorifies everything he does and overrates him, and the other that overcompensates in the other direction and underrates him. The truth is someplace in the middle. Jeter is legitimately a very good player that will be deserving of the HoF. The offense he provides at SS should not be minimized just because he played at a time when guys like Rodriguez and Garciaparra we’re producing almost unheard of offense at SS. If not for one great defensive deficiency, I believe Jeter would already be knocking on the door of the 5 best all time shortstops. As it is, he'll have to settle for knocking on the door of the 10 best right now. He does most things well defensively – he goes to the 3B side pretty well, he has a strong arm, and he goes back on popups as well anyone. What hurts him though, and more importantly his team, is his pathetic range towards 2B. I really can't overstate how poor his range in this regard is. It costs his team several runs over the course of the year. The truth is just in simple observation, Jeter will barely flinch on balls up the middle that a good SS will make almost routinely. Right now you can live with this given his offensive contributions, but at some point he will likely have to move positions, and it will likely be overdue given his stature (some would say it's already overdue). Anyway, there isn't much reason to suspect that Jeter won't keep plugging away as he as been. One last interesting note about Jeter, at this point in his career, he has slightly more hits than Pete Rose had at this point in his career (2356 to 2337); both were rookies at age 22). I don’t think Jeter will be getting to 4,000 hits, but it highlights how consistent and productive Jeter has been.
The backup situation has already been addressed with Betemit the main guy. Alberto Gonzalez looks to be a very good defensive SS but probably doesn't have enough bat to leave any kind of mark with the Yankees.
Red Sox: I was really puzzled when the Sox signed Lugo. I said it on here then and I'll say it again now, Lugo is really just an Edgar Renteria clone, except not as good. The Sox already decided they didn't like the real Renteria, to the point where they paid another team to take him, so why pay more for an imitation? What's worse is that Lugo was terrible last year both in the field and at the plate, particularly in the first half. Chances are he'll improve this year and be closer to his career norms, but even that doesn’t justify the contract, IMO. There is optimism in the fact that despite his poor play he managed to drive in 73 runs as a SS. That's testament to how good the Sox lineup is, but imagine how many runs Lugo would knock in if he played closer to his career norms. Defensively, Lugo’s future is probably at another position, though he’s going to have to improve at the plate from last year to justify playing at any position as a starter, let alone one with his contract.
It will be very interesting to see how the Sox handle Lugo this year. If he struggles again in the first half, do they keep playing him to justify the contract, or do they turn to Jed Lowrie? Lowrie looks ready as a hitter and I think he could step in now and be an upgrade over Lugo. Defensively, he could probably still use some minor league seasoning, but he’ll be nipping at Lugo’s heals should Lugo struggle again. If Lugo gets injured, that could be the end for him in Boston. I also think Lowrie might be better suited for 2B, but he’s blocked there by Pedroia, so SS is probably his best hope with the Sox.
Cora looks to be the backup and as I already discussed he'll give the team solid defense and positional flexibility off the bench. I would think though that if Lugo were to go down, the team would give Lowrie a shot rather than play Cora regularly. Some players are just better suited to be backups, Cora seems to fit that bill.
Advantage: Yankees. Even if Lugo plays as well as he's ever had (career high OPS+ of 105), Jeter will still likely be considerably better.
Third Base
Yankees: Books can be written about A-Rod. He seems to be more comfortable and confident in NY and with a better grasp of his career in general. This is all conjecture, but coming out last year about his relationship with Jeter, being more frank with the media in general, eschewing Boras and pretty much throwing him under the bus and coming crawling back to the Yankees, makes me think that A-Rod is in more control of his life and what he wants than he was a few years ago, and I think it’s been reflected in his play. I don’t think he’ll repeat what he did last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised either because he's just one of those rare talents that you have to be in awe of sometimes. I'm wondering how the fans will embrace him next year. I actually think they'll be supportive of him, provided he produces of course. For better or worse, Yankee fans are stuck with him for the next decade. He will go down in history as a Yankee and may set some impressive records as a Yankee. I also think that fans will recognize that he showed his loyalty to the Yankees, even if it was in a roundabout way. Some will say that he came back because he couldn't find a better deal elsewhere. That's crap, IMO. He came back to the Yankees before the free agent period even started, so Boras couldn't even really work that special magic that seemingly only he can work. Let's not forget that last offseason, it took six weeks but Boras got Barry Zito that ridiculous contract that no one thought he'd get. A-Rod came back before Boras could even try to reel in a fish, and I think it was huge of A-Rod to push Boras and his ego aside and do what he thought was right. So I think we'll see a comfortable A-Rod again this year who will produce, but it will still take a good postseason to officially win over the fans (he should look no further than Eli Manning to see how quickly a player can go from extremely criticized to legendary in New York with a strong postseason). I do have to question the Yankees sensibility in signing him to 10 years. As good as A-Rod is, does anyone think he’ll be producing at a high level in 8-10 years? My guess is that the Yankees are assuming a financial windfall from A-Rod’s pursuit of the homerun record.
Betemit again looks to be the backup. In time, I think Betemit might make a decent starting 3Bman for someone in the Hank Blalock mold, but it won’t be with the Yankees.
Red Sox: Despite his terrible 2005 with the Marlins, when the Sox acquired Lowell as a throw-in in the Beckett deal, I said on here that he could be a hidden gem in that deal as he’s the exact type of player that can thrive with the Sox. He's hard-nosed, plays great defense (though not quite as good last year), and has a perfect swing for Fenway. Last year may have arguably been the best season of his career and his 2005 seasons is starting to look like a blip (though an extremely strange blip).. I don’t really expect him to hit .324 again, but I think he’ll put up another productive year, perhaps somewhere in between his 2006 and 2007 performances.
Cora again looks to be the backup. Should Lowell be hurt for any amount of time, it will be interesting to see if the Sox use Youkilis here and play Casey (or Carter) at 1B. Maybe consider Lowrie as well?
Advantage: Yankees. I like Lowell, very much an All Star caliber 3Bman, but A-Rod is an all time great player.
Left Field
Yankees: Damon played well in the second half last year giving hope that perhaps he's not in decline. He also reported to camp out of shape last year (to rest an injured ankle during the offseason), and the team has reportedly ordered him to be in better shape this year. If he can play like he did at the end of last year, he's still the kind of guy you like leading off for your team, though overpaid and other than a little more power and OBP, not doing much that a 41 year old Kenny Lofton couldn’t do (has anyone signed Lofton yet?). Defensively, Damon covers good ground in LF and his arm isn't as much of a liability. The range makes him a defensive upgrade over Matsui.
Depending on injuries and how much Jason Giambi can contribute, Hideki Matsui could also see a lot of time in LF. Matsui is very consistent, you pretty much know what you'll get from him in that he'll give you good but not quite great production. There is some concern for injury now as he has missed time the past couple of seasons and had offseason knee surgery. Then again, he did play something like 1000 consecutive games between Japan and America, so you know he’ll work hard to be in the lineup. He’s also a very proud individual, I think that’s something reflective of the Japanese culture, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him work extra hard this year to get in back in shape and stay in the lineup. Finding himself on the bench with any frequency could be considered embarrassing for him. Defensively he's probably average at best. If Matsui stays healthy, no reason to think he won't have his typical .290, 25, 105 type season.
Red Sox: Manny Ramirez is coming off the worst season of his career. I really don't know what to make of it. Is it the beginning of a decline after years of great production (going back to 1995), or was Manny just more disinterested than usual last year? I tend to believe the latter. Ramirez is one of the great right-handed hitters of all time and I expect him to bounce back from last year. You still have to wonder though if he'll take a few weeks off down the stretch as he has the past few years. Also have to wonder whether his contract situation factors into his play in that with a good year the Sox would be more likely to pick up that nice option for him next year, or even if they decline, he can go into free agency and look for a nice multi-year deal. On the other hand, perhaps Manny just doesn't care and wouldn't mind leaving Boston (as he's stated in the past), so perhaps he won't play any harder, not caring whether Boston picks up his option or not. Defensively, Manny is not good. Occasionally he'll make a nice-looking play, but that's just another example of the Jeter-theory of looking better than you are. If Ortiz didn't emerge as such a great hitter, Manny would have been the regular DH for years now (he DH'd more than not in the two years before Ortiz got there).
Advantage: Red Sox. The only way this can possibly be in the Yankees favor is if Ramirez really is in decline and Damon performs at peak or Matsui gets the bulk of the time in LF and hits like normal.
Center Field
Yankees: A lot of people like to say Melky Cabrera is mediocre hitter. That's true, but it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. First, Cabrera is only 22. Where are most players at that age? In the minors honing their skills or maybe even college, and are not usually playing CF everyday for a pennant-quality team. Ellsbury, for example, was at AA when he was 22. So I'm not going to write Cabrera off as a mediocre hitter just yet. What he's shown at his age at the ML level, when most of his peers are in the minors or college, gives a lot of reason for optimism, IMO. He’s learning at the ML level, that’s no easy thing. I don’t think his ceiling is great, but I think he could become an above-average to pretty good all around CFer. At one point in August last year, he was hitting around .310 with OPS+ around 112. That’s not too shabby at all for a 22 year old CFer, much less a veteran CFer. He then hit terribly in September. That suggests to me that perhaps conditioning is an issue. Again, most 22 year olds aren’t used to playing everyday in the Majors over an entire season. I think that caught up with him down the stretch and that's why he faded. He and Cano work out with A-Rod now, so hopefully that will give Cabrera better stamina. Defensively he’s not as good as say Crisp, but he’s still very good and seems to be improving and has a terrific arm that runners seem to underestimate.
If Cabrera goes down or struggles like he did last September, this will be a tough call for the Yankees. In the short-run they would probably turn to Johnny Damon, but Damon is a liability out there if having to play regularly. Brett Gardner could be in the mix and I think he has a shot to make the team with a strong spring. He's a perfect guy to have on the bench. Great speed, great defense, he can hit a little and get on base, but he's most likely destined to start the year at Scranton. Austin Jackson's progress will also be something to monitor this year. If he's doing well and the Yankees need a boost in CF in the second half, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a shot.
Red Sox: I imagine this is one of the most interesting positions for Red Sox fans. I'll address Coco Crisp first, because I figure if he's there, he'll probably be the starter at least at the beginning of the season. Crisp has become a terrific defensive CFer, answering one of the big questions when the Sox acquired him. However, he's really regressed as a hitter to the point of mediocrity. It's hard to explain. With the Indians, he showed a lot of promise as a hitter and looked ready to hit his stride when the Sox acquired. 2006 could be dismissed because he had some injuries and had to make a lot of adjustments (new position, new city, new team, new type of baseball culture), but he didn't look much better at the plate last year. I wouldn't give up on him quite yet. He has shown the ability before and he's still young enough (28) that he could bounce back. If he does, the Sox will have a very nice all around player in Crisp (he can steal bases too).
If Crisp continues to struggle at the plate, I'm sure the Sox could find a taker and the Sox have a great Plan B - Jacoby Ellsbury. My guess is that the Sox plan at the start of the year will be to get Ellsbury playing time by moving him around the OF with an ultimate eye on playing regularly CF when the opportunity arises (either due to injury or Crisp struggling). The Yankees had the same kind of plan with Cabrera at the beginning of last year. I like Ellsbury and I'm excited to see how he'll do this year. His skills kind of remind me of Tim Raines, and I think that’s high praise. I’m not saying Ellsbury will be as good as Tim Raines, but I think there’s a lot of reason to be high on Ellsbury’s potential.
Advantage: Red Sox. This is the toughest position, IMO. I give Cabrera a slight nod over Crisp due to age, while aware of the possibility that Crisp could regain his Cleveland-form. The wild card is Ellsbury, who I think probably has more upside than Cabrera. The combination of Crisp and Ellsbury I think gives the Sox a very slight edge right now as I think I'd feel a little better with both of them on my team than just Cabrera.
Right Field
Yankees: Abreu struggled badly in the first half of last year but had a nice second half and ending up putting up respectable numbers. There are reports that he came to Spring Training last year out of shape and that the team ordered him to be in better shape this year. If his second half is any indication, Abreu can still play and gives you a little bit of everything, kind of in the Minnie Minoso mold. He's been extremely consistent since 1998 and he's not that old at 34, so given his second half, I'm inclined to believe that last year's first half was a blip, similar to Ramirez's down year. Some questioned bringing Abreu back, but I liked the decision. It’s just for one year, which is better than being saddled with an expensive long-term contract for several years with a guy like Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand, or what the Sox are paying J.D. Drew.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Shelley Duncan get some time in RF (or LF). If Matsui ends up DHing most of the time, Duncan could end up being the primary backup in the OF. In that situation I would hope the team would carry an extra OFer, and again Brett Garder seems to make perfect sense.
Red Sox: J.D. Drew was the other Red Sox signing last year that really made me shake my head in wonderment. Drew definitely has ability (some might say "had" ability), but there are a lot of questions about his ability to stay on the field and his desire. I expect that he'll be better next year than he was last year, but would anyone really be surprised if he's not or if he misses 50 games? I think all along he's shown that he cares first and foremost about money rather than being a great player, this goes back to when the Phillies drafted him. He's the perfect Scott Boras client. I wonder now that the Sox gave him is guaranteed payday, exactly what he was looking for, will he have the motivation to be great. Nevertheless, if he stays healthy and plays up to his ability, he will make the Sox lineup downright scary. I don't believe there would be a threesome in baseball that could match Ramirez/Ortiz/Drew, and then a fivesome when you add Lowell and Youkilis. I believe that over the life of this contract, Drew will have at least one good year, could be this year. I don’t think he’ll come close to justifying the entire contract though.
The Sox also just brought back Bobby Kielty. He probably has a good shot at making the team, and he could see a lot of time in RF should Drew miss a lot of games as he typically does. Kielty is decent enough for a backup, but you really wouldn't want him playing regularly. A better idea though might be to put Crisp in RF and Ellsbury in CF (or vice versa) should Drew be unavailable for long periods. Brandon Moss could also be a factor with a strong spring.
Advantage: Yankees. If Drew is healthy and playing up to his ability, he and Abreu are very similar players. The difference is, that with the exception of the first half last year, Abreu has been doing it year in and year out since 1998. Drew, on the other hand, has only played at that level for a whole season just once or twice in his career, and even then he's missed about 20 games.
Designated Hitter
Yankees: Tough to say now if the Yankees will have a primary designated hitter. A lof of it depends on Giambi. If he's healthy and productive, he'll probably start more often than not at DH, but I would also expect him to get a lot of time at 1B so the team could get Damon and Matsui in the lineup frequently. If Giambi is like last year, my guess is that Matsui will get the bulk of time, but that Damon, Duncan, and even Posada will get their share of ABs at DH.
Red Sox: Ortiz has likely been the best hitter in the AL over the past 5 years. He is the ideal model for a DH, just as Edgar Martinez was in the last decade. At some point I think Ortiz's build will catch up to him, and he had some problems last year, but I expect he'll keep plugging away this year. As I said earlier though, I wonder if the Sean Casey signing, other than the obvious depth it adds, was a sign that perhaps the team is a little concerned about Ortiz's health. As long as he's healthy and in the lineup though, I see him producing.
Advantage: Red Sox. The only way this changes is if Ortiz misses time and say Giambi hits like he did in 2005/2006.
Bench
Yankees: I've pretty much addressed the bench players while going through the positions. The key here again will be Giambi. If he's healthy and producing, the Yankees will then likely on a given night have Damon, Matsui, or Giambi on the bench, and that's a pretty good starting point. Molina gives the Yankees a serviceable enough backup catcher. Duncan should provide a shot of power off the bench and can play 1B or the OF (though neither particularly well), and Betemit is as about as good as you'll find in terms of offense for a backup IFer, is a switch-hitter, and can play all the IF positions. After that, who knows who will be on the bench. If Ensberg makes the team, that could change a lot of the dynamics. I think Gardner has a decent shot and would give the Yankees something off the bench they don't currently have - speed and good OF defense. Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, and Chris Woodward could all be in the mix as well, but no more than one of them will make it at best.
Red Sox: Outside of Ellsbury/Crisp, the Red Sox don't have as many interchangeable parts as the Yankees. Ellsbury is a good guy to start the bench with, though I suspect the team will find lots of ways to get him playing time. Kielty, because he's a heady veteran probably as a good shot to make the team, but Brandon Moss with a strong spring might be the better choice. Cora is the prototypical backup middle IFer. I think the team can do better than Mirabelli, but I suspect he'll make the squad. Casey was a nice pickup, good depth and character, but I wonder how he'll deal with playing infrequently. Lowrie and Carter are two guys to watch this Spring, though unless they look to have regular opportunities at the ML level, the team will probably start them at AAA.
Advantage: Yankees. This was tough, but I think the Yankees have a little more flexibility with their bench. Betemit can play all IF positions and has a good bat for a backup IFer and room for growth. Duncan can play 1B or the OF. Gardner if he makes the team would add a nice dimension off the bench. Again though, the key is Giambi, if he can play, the Yankees bench becomes pretty deep and with a lot of options. I also think Molina is a better backup than Mirabelli for whatever that's worth.
I’m kind of tired after all this, so I’ll address pitching later in the week. I’ll say though that before Schilling got hurt, I gave the Sox the rotation advantage, but now I have to rethink how Schilling’s absence will affect the dynamics on the Sox. I give the Sox the bullpen edge right now, but I the Yankees have a lot of good young arms in camp, and I think they’ll be able to piece something decent together with all these options.
Catcher
Yankees: Jorge Posada is coming off a career year and one of the best offensive seasons ever by a catcher. He'll be 36 this year, so there is naturally concern that he will decline, and it is unlikely that he'll repeat last year's performance. Even assuming some decline, Posada has a long way to go to even being just an above-average catcher. Consider that if you remove 2007 from the equation, his average OPS+ since 2000, when he became the full time catcher, is still an impressive 126 for a catcher. Throw in 2007, and the average goes up to 130. Throw in the fact that Posada is also very durable for a catcher, catching an average of 136 games a season since 2000 and appearing in an average of 143 games. He also doesn't have as much wear and tear as you might think for a 36 year old everyday catcher as he was converted to a catcher fairly late in his minor league career, from 2B (which by itself, evidences some athleticism by Posada that many catchers might not have), and he didn't even catch more than 110 games in the Majors until he was 28. So in sum, I expect Posada will regress next year, but I think he'll play closer to his career norms, which would still put him among the best catchers in the game. Defensively, he doesn't hurt the team. He generally calls a good game and he's pretty good at throwing out runners (though it was down last year). Having Tony Pena around, one of the great defensive catchers, seems to have helped Posada improve defensively. Posada also has a lot of value in that he's a strong clubhouse leader (and perhaps the real captain of the team). I think it's also worth noting that I believe Posada, very quietly for a Yankee, is playing himself into the HoF discussion. He's not there yet, and he might never get there given his age, but it's something to keep in mind over the next few years.
Behind Posada is Jose Molina. I think he's a solid backup catcher. He's very good defensively and he can hit a little. Easily the best backup the Yankees have had since John Flaherty and I think the team feels comfortable with Molina playing a few games here and there and getting Posada some rest or some time at DH. That being said, Posada is probably the most irreplaceable player on the team. If he goes down for any stretch of time, which is certainly possible with a 36 year old catcher, the Yankees will be scrambling to fill the void, both on the field and in the clubhouse. The Yankees need to start thinking about an eventual successor here. Jesus Montero looks like a hitter, but many think he'll change positions before making the big leagues. The team will probably give Francisco Cervelli a good look to see if he might be able to contribute in the not to distant future.
Red Sox: For a few years there, Posada/Varitek was one of those great Yankees/Red Sox comparisons, but while Posada was still going strong at 35, Varitek looked to be in decline at age 35. Don't get me wrong though, Varitek is still an above average to good catcher, he's just a clear notch below Posada at this point. I'd say the decline started in the second half of 2005 after a very strong first half. He was mediocre in 2006, but even then his importance to the team was illustrated when he went down and the club struggled without him. He bounced back somewhat in 2007 and I'd expect a similar year this year, and that would be a pretty good bat for a catcher, good game calling, pretty good defense, and a strong clubhouse presence. It is probably worth noting though that Varitek hasn't been nearly as durable as Posada. For example, while Posada has averaged 136 games caught a year since 2000, Varitek hasn't caught that many games in a season since 2003 and has only twice reached that amount in his entire career (1999 and 2003). So given his age and durability, the Sox have a greater concern about Varitek missing games and having to rely on a backup than the Yankees do.
As for the Red Sox backup, Doug Mirabelli looks again to be the frontrunner. First, I have to get this out of the way - while the Sox have made some good trades in building this team, trading Josh Bard and Cla Meredith to reacquire Mirabelli was just boneheaded. Mirabelli will be on the team for one reason - he can catch Wakefield's knuckleball. Having a guy on the team just because he can catch your 4th or 5th starter (and a guy who might be in the pen by the end of the year), doesn't seem like the best of priorities. Mirabelli does have a little bit of power though and he seems to deliver at least one memorable hit a year that Sox fans (and that might be all Sox fans need from him), but this definitely seems like an area where the Sox could upgrade. Perhaps a strong spring by Kevin Cash or George Kottaras could change the Sox thinking heading into the season. Though I expect Kottaras is destined to start in AAA.
Advantage: Yankees. Varitek is still a good catcher, but sorry Sox fans, Posada is on a different level, even assuming regression.
First Base
Yankees: Ugh, the Yankees situation here is a mess with a lot of guys in the mix. It's impossible to tell right now who will end up getting the bulk of the time (if any of these guys). What I find most silly about the Yankees 1B situation is that they look to have three or four guys that will combine to have numbers like Richie Sexson (in a typical Sexson-like season). If the Yankees wanted Richie Sexson-like production, why not just trade for Richie Sexson, he’s been rumored to have been on the trade block at various points? I’m not advocating getting Sexson, I just don’t see the sense in having three or four guys combine to be Richie Sexson. Anyway, I'll address the candidates in turn:
With Jason Giambi the big question is whether he can stay healthy. If he can stay healthy, then you wonder if he can still produce. It’s possible. In 2005 and 2006, while staying mostly healthy, he was among the league leaders in OPS and OPS+. If he can stay healthy and put up say a 150 OPS+ like he did a couple of years ago, the team can live with his defense at 1B because they’re not going to get close to that kind of production from the other options and this also allows Damon and Matsui to be in the lineup regularly as well. That being said, I have my doubts that Giambi will be able to stay healthy and productive, though I don’t think he’ll be as bad as last year. I’m hoping for a best case scenario that he can stay relatively healthy, play mostly DH, and maybe have a 125-130 OPS+, which I don’t think would be out of the question. It all starts with whether he can stay healthy though, and that’s a big if.
People love the energy and power Shelley Duncan brings, and I have to admit, I'd like to see him win the 1B job. My fear though is that the more he plays, the more holes in his swing will be exposed. Give him 400 ABs, I think he could hit 25 homeruns, but I also think he'd hit under .250 (perhaps considerably so), won't really help himself with OBP, and will strikeout a ton. There's a reason he was in the minors so long (other than just the Yankees former reluctance to use minor leaguers).
I think signing Morgan Ensberg was a good low-risk move. The only way this can hurt the Yankees is if Ensberg is as bad as he was last year and the team plays him anyway. I suspect though that with Torre and his fascination with struggling veterans gone, Ensberg will very much have to earn a spot this spring. I've read that he had some shoulder problems the past couple of years that really hurt his swing. It was just 2005 when he finished 4th in the NL MVP race. If somehow Ensberg, who is just 32, can regain close to that form, this will be a windfall for the Yankees as he has decent power and gets on base. The transition to 1B shouldn't be a problem for him either as he was a good defensive 3Bman.
I don't think Wilson Betemit will be in the mix as much as some he will. I think Morgan Ensberg has leapfrogged Betemit as a 1B option, and that Betemit will be the primary backup IFer, where I think he has much more value to the team than as a starting 1Bman. It's nice that he can play all IF positions, and he'll give you decent power and maybe some OBP for a backup IFer. He’s also only 26, so there’s reason to believe he’ll get better as a hitter.
Jason Lane is likely just camp fodder that the team might keep around at Scranton in the hope that maybe he can help at some point in a pinch. He'd need a big spring, a la Josh Phelps last year, to have a chance.
The Yankees have also brought Chris Woodward in and he'll likely get a look at 1B, but he's more of a utility player whose role is already taken by Betemit. A strong spring could cause the Yankees to keep him around, but he'll also face strong competition from guys like Nick Green and Alberto Gonzalez for that last spot should the team elect to use it on another backup IFer.
Finally, Juan Miranda is someone to watch. He almost certainly doesn't make the team out of Spring Training, but he could factor into the team's plans at some point during the season. While I'm talking about prospects, can we finally call Eric Duncan a bust? He's just never developed as he's gone through the minor league levels.
Actually, I’ll one more name to the list – Nick Johnson. Should none of the above options play well this spring, Johnson could make perfect sense depending on his health. He missed all of last year and he has a track record of injuries, though the Yankees could absorb Johnson missing time given their other options, and he could likely be had for pretty cheap because of his injuries and that the Nationals are committed to Dmitri Young at 1B.
Red Sox: Kevin Youkilis is the type of player most teams would love to have. He hits for average, has some power, fields well, has a good understanding of the game, and plays hard. I’d be a little concerned about his trend the past two seasons of trailing off in the second half. The first time I dismissed it as possible fatigue due to not playing regularly at any level for a couple of years (in that he was either sitting on the Sox bench, or being shuttled back and forth to AAA). But when he did it again last year, I raised an eyebrow. Nevertheless, I don’t believe we’ve seen the best yet from Youkilis, as I think at some point he’ll put a full season together, and this year being his third season as a regular in the Majors, could be it. Hitting .300 with 20-25 homeruns is certainly attainable for Youkilis.
The Sox brought in Sean Casey which should add nice depth to the team and he's supposed to be a strong clubhouse guy. It kind of reminds me though of when the Sox brought in J.T. Snow a few years ago. Snow became upset with his complete lack of playing time. I wonder how often Casey will play. He's used to playing everyday and that likely won't nearly be the case with the Sox. How will he deal with that? He can't argue he didn't know what the situation was coming in. I also wonder if maybe the Sox have some concerns with the health of someone, perhaps Ortiz (who had some problems last year and whose size can be prohibitive of long-term health in baseball). I say this because I don’t think you bring in a veteran like Casey unless you believe he’ll be playing quite a bit.
The Sox also have Chris Carter who has shown a good bat in the minors. His minor league OPS is .909 I actually wonder why at 24 he hasn't had a shot yet. A strong spring could vault him into the team's plans, but I suspect with a logjam of veterans, he'll be starting at AAA and will have to rely on either an injury or a shift to the OF to get time in the big leagues. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes one of the “surprise” players of the year for the Sox.
Lars Anderson is someone to keep an eye on, he's like the Sox version of Miranda except five years younger, and thus with more upside. He's probably still at least a year away though, and probably more like at least two.
Advantage: Red Sox. The Yankees have too many question marks here for this to tip in their favor. Sure, if Ensberg or Giambi play like they did a couple of years ago, or Duncan is a more complete hitter than he looks, this could be close, but who knows right now. Plus, I suspect we haven't yet seen the best of Youkilis yet.
Second Base
Yankees: Cano/Pedroia might be the next great Yankees/Red Sox debate. Addressing Cano first, I said on here during his rookie year that he has no problem putting bat on ball, he just needs to work on his pitch selection and timing, and that as he matures as a player more balls will drop in for hits. That’s happened, and he should continue to improve. He’s also developing as a power hitter, and at just 25 and having shown so much already, the best should be yet to come for him. That being said, he does need to work on taking more walks. You could almost tell that he was trying to do that at times last year, as there were periods that it seemed like he was forcing himself to take first pitches, but in doing so, he also seemed to be uncomfortable for the rest of the AB (I particularly noticed this trend in the first half when he was struggling). It was like by forcing himself to take the first pitch, he lost his aggressiveness and focus, so he'll need to work on being patient but keeping his focus. Defensively, I think he’s better than many give him credit for. He has good range, a good arm, and turns the double play as well as anyone. He does lose focus at times though, and I think there should be a legitimate worry that his defense might regress with Larry Bowa no longer there to ride him.
I kind of already addressed the backup situation under 1B. Betemit looks to be IF backup, and he should be pretty good in that role, but I don't know if I'd want to see Betemit play any position regularly as I think he's good in small doses. Then again, he's just 26, is a switch-hitter, and has shown decent potential as a hitter for a middle IFer, so he might surprise. Alberto Gonzalez is very good defensively and I could see him getting the last roster spot with a good spring, but he's probably destined for AAA or maybe as trade bait. Nick Green and Chris Woodward are veterans in the mix, but I'd say they're both longshots.
Red Sox: Pedroia is the kind of player that fans love. He's a scrapper that makes the most of his ability. However, and Sox fans might not like this, I kind of think he overachieved last year. I just can’t see him hitting .317 again, and at just 5’9 (his listed height), his power potential likely isn’t great. He doesn’t strike out much, but he doesn’t walk much either, so his .380 OBP would likely come down if his BA drops. Defensively, I don’t think he’s as good as some make him out to be. I think the perception with a scrappy/gutty player like Pedroia can often be that they are better defensively than they really are because you can see how much effort they are making (this is the Jeter-theory of looking better defensively than you are, though maybe David Eckstein is a better comparison here). Pedroia looks good because of the effort, but a more physically gifted 2Bman could make the same play more routinely plus others that Pedroia can’t make. This all being said, I think he’ll be a very solid 2Bman, even All Star caliber, I just don’t think he has as much upside as he showed last year, or as much upside as Cano. I kind of see Pedroia as Brian Roberts without the speed, and there's really nothing wrong with that.
Alex Cora looks to be the main IF backup right now. This was another signing I didn't quite get, mostly because of the money. The Sox gave him a 4 mil, 2 year deal, which seemed to be excessive for a player of Cora's role and ability. In comparison, last year the Yankees gave Miguel Cairo, who I believe is a slightly better player than Cora, less than a million for one year. Money aside, Cora does provide solid defense and positional flexibility off the bench though, but he's definitely not someone you want starting regularly.
Advantage: Yankees. Pedroia looks like a very nice player, but I think Cano has more upside and I like that he's been doing this for a few years now whereas Pedroia has just his rookie year.
Shortstop
Yankees: With Jeter there are generally two camps - one that glorifies everything he does and overrates him, and the other that overcompensates in the other direction and underrates him. The truth is someplace in the middle. Jeter is legitimately a very good player that will be deserving of the HoF. The offense he provides at SS should not be minimized just because he played at a time when guys like Rodriguez and Garciaparra we’re producing almost unheard of offense at SS. If not for one great defensive deficiency, I believe Jeter would already be knocking on the door of the 5 best all time shortstops. As it is, he'll have to settle for knocking on the door of the 10 best right now. He does most things well defensively – he goes to the 3B side pretty well, he has a strong arm, and he goes back on popups as well anyone. What hurts him though, and more importantly his team, is his pathetic range towards 2B. I really can't overstate how poor his range in this regard is. It costs his team several runs over the course of the year. The truth is just in simple observation, Jeter will barely flinch on balls up the middle that a good SS will make almost routinely. Right now you can live with this given his offensive contributions, but at some point he will likely have to move positions, and it will likely be overdue given his stature (some would say it's already overdue). Anyway, there isn't much reason to suspect that Jeter won't keep plugging away as he as been. One last interesting note about Jeter, at this point in his career, he has slightly more hits than Pete Rose had at this point in his career (2356 to 2337); both were rookies at age 22). I don’t think Jeter will be getting to 4,000 hits, but it highlights how consistent and productive Jeter has been.
The backup situation has already been addressed with Betemit the main guy. Alberto Gonzalez looks to be a very good defensive SS but probably doesn't have enough bat to leave any kind of mark with the Yankees.
Red Sox: I was really puzzled when the Sox signed Lugo. I said it on here then and I'll say it again now, Lugo is really just an Edgar Renteria clone, except not as good. The Sox already decided they didn't like the real Renteria, to the point where they paid another team to take him, so why pay more for an imitation? What's worse is that Lugo was terrible last year both in the field and at the plate, particularly in the first half. Chances are he'll improve this year and be closer to his career norms, but even that doesn’t justify the contract, IMO. There is optimism in the fact that despite his poor play he managed to drive in 73 runs as a SS. That's testament to how good the Sox lineup is, but imagine how many runs Lugo would knock in if he played closer to his career norms. Defensively, Lugo’s future is probably at another position, though he’s going to have to improve at the plate from last year to justify playing at any position as a starter, let alone one with his contract.
It will be very interesting to see how the Sox handle Lugo this year. If he struggles again in the first half, do they keep playing him to justify the contract, or do they turn to Jed Lowrie? Lowrie looks ready as a hitter and I think he could step in now and be an upgrade over Lugo. Defensively, he could probably still use some minor league seasoning, but he’ll be nipping at Lugo’s heals should Lugo struggle again. If Lugo gets injured, that could be the end for him in Boston. I also think Lowrie might be better suited for 2B, but he’s blocked there by Pedroia, so SS is probably his best hope with the Sox.
Cora looks to be the backup and as I already discussed he'll give the team solid defense and positional flexibility off the bench. I would think though that if Lugo were to go down, the team would give Lowrie a shot rather than play Cora regularly. Some players are just better suited to be backups, Cora seems to fit that bill.
Advantage: Yankees. Even if Lugo plays as well as he's ever had (career high OPS+ of 105), Jeter will still likely be considerably better.
Third Base
Yankees: Books can be written about A-Rod. He seems to be more comfortable and confident in NY and with a better grasp of his career in general. This is all conjecture, but coming out last year about his relationship with Jeter, being more frank with the media in general, eschewing Boras and pretty much throwing him under the bus and coming crawling back to the Yankees, makes me think that A-Rod is in more control of his life and what he wants than he was a few years ago, and I think it’s been reflected in his play. I don’t think he’ll repeat what he did last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised either because he's just one of those rare talents that you have to be in awe of sometimes. I'm wondering how the fans will embrace him next year. I actually think they'll be supportive of him, provided he produces of course. For better or worse, Yankee fans are stuck with him for the next decade. He will go down in history as a Yankee and may set some impressive records as a Yankee. I also think that fans will recognize that he showed his loyalty to the Yankees, even if it was in a roundabout way. Some will say that he came back because he couldn't find a better deal elsewhere. That's crap, IMO. He came back to the Yankees before the free agent period even started, so Boras couldn't even really work that special magic that seemingly only he can work. Let's not forget that last offseason, it took six weeks but Boras got Barry Zito that ridiculous contract that no one thought he'd get. A-Rod came back before Boras could even try to reel in a fish, and I think it was huge of A-Rod to push Boras and his ego aside and do what he thought was right. So I think we'll see a comfortable A-Rod again this year who will produce, but it will still take a good postseason to officially win over the fans (he should look no further than Eli Manning to see how quickly a player can go from extremely criticized to legendary in New York with a strong postseason). I do have to question the Yankees sensibility in signing him to 10 years. As good as A-Rod is, does anyone think he’ll be producing at a high level in 8-10 years? My guess is that the Yankees are assuming a financial windfall from A-Rod’s pursuit of the homerun record.
Betemit again looks to be the backup. In time, I think Betemit might make a decent starting 3Bman for someone in the Hank Blalock mold, but it won’t be with the Yankees.
Red Sox: Despite his terrible 2005 with the Marlins, when the Sox acquired Lowell as a throw-in in the Beckett deal, I said on here that he could be a hidden gem in that deal as he’s the exact type of player that can thrive with the Sox. He's hard-nosed, plays great defense (though not quite as good last year), and has a perfect swing for Fenway. Last year may have arguably been the best season of his career and his 2005 seasons is starting to look like a blip (though an extremely strange blip).. I don’t really expect him to hit .324 again, but I think he’ll put up another productive year, perhaps somewhere in between his 2006 and 2007 performances.
Cora again looks to be the backup. Should Lowell be hurt for any amount of time, it will be interesting to see if the Sox use Youkilis here and play Casey (or Carter) at 1B. Maybe consider Lowrie as well?
Advantage: Yankees. I like Lowell, very much an All Star caliber 3Bman, but A-Rod is an all time great player.
Left Field
Yankees: Damon played well in the second half last year giving hope that perhaps he's not in decline. He also reported to camp out of shape last year (to rest an injured ankle during the offseason), and the team has reportedly ordered him to be in better shape this year. If he can play like he did at the end of last year, he's still the kind of guy you like leading off for your team, though overpaid and other than a little more power and OBP, not doing much that a 41 year old Kenny Lofton couldn’t do (has anyone signed Lofton yet?). Defensively, Damon covers good ground in LF and his arm isn't as much of a liability. The range makes him a defensive upgrade over Matsui.
Depending on injuries and how much Jason Giambi can contribute, Hideki Matsui could also see a lot of time in LF. Matsui is very consistent, you pretty much know what you'll get from him in that he'll give you good but not quite great production. There is some concern for injury now as he has missed time the past couple of seasons and had offseason knee surgery. Then again, he did play something like 1000 consecutive games between Japan and America, so you know he’ll work hard to be in the lineup. He’s also a very proud individual, I think that’s something reflective of the Japanese culture, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him work extra hard this year to get in back in shape and stay in the lineup. Finding himself on the bench with any frequency could be considered embarrassing for him. Defensively he's probably average at best. If Matsui stays healthy, no reason to think he won't have his typical .290, 25, 105 type season.
Red Sox: Manny Ramirez is coming off the worst season of his career. I really don't know what to make of it. Is it the beginning of a decline after years of great production (going back to 1995), or was Manny just more disinterested than usual last year? I tend to believe the latter. Ramirez is one of the great right-handed hitters of all time and I expect him to bounce back from last year. You still have to wonder though if he'll take a few weeks off down the stretch as he has the past few years. Also have to wonder whether his contract situation factors into his play in that with a good year the Sox would be more likely to pick up that nice option for him next year, or even if they decline, he can go into free agency and look for a nice multi-year deal. On the other hand, perhaps Manny just doesn't care and wouldn't mind leaving Boston (as he's stated in the past), so perhaps he won't play any harder, not caring whether Boston picks up his option or not. Defensively, Manny is not good. Occasionally he'll make a nice-looking play, but that's just another example of the Jeter-theory of looking better than you are. If Ortiz didn't emerge as such a great hitter, Manny would have been the regular DH for years now (he DH'd more than not in the two years before Ortiz got there).
Advantage: Red Sox. The only way this can possibly be in the Yankees favor is if Ramirez really is in decline and Damon performs at peak or Matsui gets the bulk of the time in LF and hits like normal.
Center Field
Yankees: A lot of people like to say Melky Cabrera is mediocre hitter. That's true, but it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. First, Cabrera is only 22. Where are most players at that age? In the minors honing their skills or maybe even college, and are not usually playing CF everyday for a pennant-quality team. Ellsbury, for example, was at AA when he was 22. So I'm not going to write Cabrera off as a mediocre hitter just yet. What he's shown at his age at the ML level, when most of his peers are in the minors or college, gives a lot of reason for optimism, IMO. He’s learning at the ML level, that’s no easy thing. I don’t think his ceiling is great, but I think he could become an above-average to pretty good all around CFer. At one point in August last year, he was hitting around .310 with OPS+ around 112. That’s not too shabby at all for a 22 year old CFer, much less a veteran CFer. He then hit terribly in September. That suggests to me that perhaps conditioning is an issue. Again, most 22 year olds aren’t used to playing everyday in the Majors over an entire season. I think that caught up with him down the stretch and that's why he faded. He and Cano work out with A-Rod now, so hopefully that will give Cabrera better stamina. Defensively he’s not as good as say Crisp, but he’s still very good and seems to be improving and has a terrific arm that runners seem to underestimate.
If Cabrera goes down or struggles like he did last September, this will be a tough call for the Yankees. In the short-run they would probably turn to Johnny Damon, but Damon is a liability out there if having to play regularly. Brett Gardner could be in the mix and I think he has a shot to make the team with a strong spring. He's a perfect guy to have on the bench. Great speed, great defense, he can hit a little and get on base, but he's most likely destined to start the year at Scranton. Austin Jackson's progress will also be something to monitor this year. If he's doing well and the Yankees need a boost in CF in the second half, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a shot.
Red Sox: I imagine this is one of the most interesting positions for Red Sox fans. I'll address Coco Crisp first, because I figure if he's there, he'll probably be the starter at least at the beginning of the season. Crisp has become a terrific defensive CFer, answering one of the big questions when the Sox acquired him. However, he's really regressed as a hitter to the point of mediocrity. It's hard to explain. With the Indians, he showed a lot of promise as a hitter and looked ready to hit his stride when the Sox acquired. 2006 could be dismissed because he had some injuries and had to make a lot of adjustments (new position, new city, new team, new type of baseball culture), but he didn't look much better at the plate last year. I wouldn't give up on him quite yet. He has shown the ability before and he's still young enough (28) that he could bounce back. If he does, the Sox will have a very nice all around player in Crisp (he can steal bases too).
If Crisp continues to struggle at the plate, I'm sure the Sox could find a taker and the Sox have a great Plan B - Jacoby Ellsbury. My guess is that the Sox plan at the start of the year will be to get Ellsbury playing time by moving him around the OF with an ultimate eye on playing regularly CF when the opportunity arises (either due to injury or Crisp struggling). The Yankees had the same kind of plan with Cabrera at the beginning of last year. I like Ellsbury and I'm excited to see how he'll do this year. His skills kind of remind me of Tim Raines, and I think that’s high praise. I’m not saying Ellsbury will be as good as Tim Raines, but I think there’s a lot of reason to be high on Ellsbury’s potential.
Advantage: Red Sox. This is the toughest position, IMO. I give Cabrera a slight nod over Crisp due to age, while aware of the possibility that Crisp could regain his Cleveland-form. The wild card is Ellsbury, who I think probably has more upside than Cabrera. The combination of Crisp and Ellsbury I think gives the Sox a very slight edge right now as I think I'd feel a little better with both of them on my team than just Cabrera.
Right Field
Yankees: Abreu struggled badly in the first half of last year but had a nice second half and ending up putting up respectable numbers. There are reports that he came to Spring Training last year out of shape and that the team ordered him to be in better shape this year. If his second half is any indication, Abreu can still play and gives you a little bit of everything, kind of in the Minnie Minoso mold. He's been extremely consistent since 1998 and he's not that old at 34, so given his second half, I'm inclined to believe that last year's first half was a blip, similar to Ramirez's down year. Some questioned bringing Abreu back, but I liked the decision. It’s just for one year, which is better than being saddled with an expensive long-term contract for several years with a guy like Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand, or what the Sox are paying J.D. Drew.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Shelley Duncan get some time in RF (or LF). If Matsui ends up DHing most of the time, Duncan could end up being the primary backup in the OF. In that situation I would hope the team would carry an extra OFer, and again Brett Garder seems to make perfect sense.
Red Sox: J.D. Drew was the other Red Sox signing last year that really made me shake my head in wonderment. Drew definitely has ability (some might say "had" ability), but there are a lot of questions about his ability to stay on the field and his desire. I expect that he'll be better next year than he was last year, but would anyone really be surprised if he's not or if he misses 50 games? I think all along he's shown that he cares first and foremost about money rather than being a great player, this goes back to when the Phillies drafted him. He's the perfect Scott Boras client. I wonder now that the Sox gave him is guaranteed payday, exactly what he was looking for, will he have the motivation to be great. Nevertheless, if he stays healthy and plays up to his ability, he will make the Sox lineup downright scary. I don't believe there would be a threesome in baseball that could match Ramirez/Ortiz/Drew, and then a fivesome when you add Lowell and Youkilis. I believe that over the life of this contract, Drew will have at least one good year, could be this year. I don’t think he’ll come close to justifying the entire contract though.
The Sox also just brought back Bobby Kielty. He probably has a good shot at making the team, and he could see a lot of time in RF should Drew miss a lot of games as he typically does. Kielty is decent enough for a backup, but you really wouldn't want him playing regularly. A better idea though might be to put Crisp in RF and Ellsbury in CF (or vice versa) should Drew be unavailable for long periods. Brandon Moss could also be a factor with a strong spring.
Advantage: Yankees. If Drew is healthy and playing up to his ability, he and Abreu are very similar players. The difference is, that with the exception of the first half last year, Abreu has been doing it year in and year out since 1998. Drew, on the other hand, has only played at that level for a whole season just once or twice in his career, and even then he's missed about 20 games.
Designated Hitter
Yankees: Tough to say now if the Yankees will have a primary designated hitter. A lof of it depends on Giambi. If he's healthy and productive, he'll probably start more often than not at DH, but I would also expect him to get a lot of time at 1B so the team could get Damon and Matsui in the lineup frequently. If Giambi is like last year, my guess is that Matsui will get the bulk of time, but that Damon, Duncan, and even Posada will get their share of ABs at DH.
Red Sox: Ortiz has likely been the best hitter in the AL over the past 5 years. He is the ideal model for a DH, just as Edgar Martinez was in the last decade. At some point I think Ortiz's build will catch up to him, and he had some problems last year, but I expect he'll keep plugging away this year. As I said earlier though, I wonder if the Sean Casey signing, other than the obvious depth it adds, was a sign that perhaps the team is a little concerned about Ortiz's health. As long as he's healthy and in the lineup though, I see him producing.
Advantage: Red Sox. The only way this changes is if Ortiz misses time and say Giambi hits like he did in 2005/2006.
Bench
Yankees: I've pretty much addressed the bench players while going through the positions. The key here again will be Giambi. If he's healthy and producing, the Yankees will then likely on a given night have Damon, Matsui, or Giambi on the bench, and that's a pretty good starting point. Molina gives the Yankees a serviceable enough backup catcher. Duncan should provide a shot of power off the bench and can play 1B or the OF (though neither particularly well), and Betemit is as about as good as you'll find in terms of offense for a backup IFer, is a switch-hitter, and can play all the IF positions. After that, who knows who will be on the bench. If Ensberg makes the team, that could change a lot of the dynamics. I think Gardner has a decent shot and would give the Yankees something off the bench they don't currently have - speed and good OF defense. Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, and Chris Woodward could all be in the mix as well, but no more than one of them will make it at best.
Red Sox: Outside of Ellsbury/Crisp, the Red Sox don't have as many interchangeable parts as the Yankees. Ellsbury is a good guy to start the bench with, though I suspect the team will find lots of ways to get him playing time. Kielty, because he's a heady veteran probably as a good shot to make the team, but Brandon Moss with a strong spring might be the better choice. Cora is the prototypical backup middle IFer. I think the team can do better than Mirabelli, but I suspect he'll make the squad. Casey was a nice pickup, good depth and character, but I wonder how he'll deal with playing infrequently. Lowrie and Carter are two guys to watch this Spring, though unless they look to have regular opportunities at the ML level, the team will probably start them at AAA.
Advantage: Yankees. This was tough, but I think the Yankees have a little more flexibility with their bench. Betemit can play all IF positions and has a good bat for a backup IFer and room for growth. Duncan can play 1B or the OF. Gardner if he makes the team would add a nice dimension off the bench. Again though, the key is Giambi, if he can play, the Yankees bench becomes pretty deep and with a lot of options. I also think Molina is a better backup than Mirabelli for whatever that's worth.
I’m kind of tired after all this, so I’ll address pitching later in the week. I’ll say though that before Schilling got hurt, I gave the Sox the rotation advantage, but now I have to rethink how Schilling’s absence will affect the dynamics on the Sox. I give the Sox the bullpen edge right now, but I the Yankees have a lot of good young arms in camp, and I think they’ll be able to piece something decent together with all these options.
You would be a stud to bet your left arm...
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