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  • continuing my baseball education

    many thanks for responses to questions i have asked so far...apologies for appearing ignorant. i can follow the jist of most sports fairly quickly and, i have to say, baseball is way more complex than 'man throws ball and another man tries to hit ball'. it is an awesome sport, perhaps the best.

    got my tickets for may 25th from coast to coast via fedex. i would recommend them to any international buyer, they have been great.

    further question for anyone who can shed light...at what point do you start to worry about the numbers in the loss column? i mean, in football, if city lose 3 from 7, we are worried. reading sparky lyle's bronx zoo, it struck me that the 78 yankees only really pushed the pedal from august onwards. keeping over 500 seems to be acceptable for way into the season. is this so? last season was just a grind being so far back on the sox most of the time, do we not want to keep 3 ahead always? what is good after 20 games...12-8, ie 600 ball?

    i know the top teams can lose, say, 70 games and still win it all, 65 perhaps, but i was very disappointed to drop to toronto last night. way too early to throw toys from the pram i know, but what realistically is seen as a fair return in the early parts of the season?
    stands on shifting sands...

  • #2
    It's a long season, and a team that wins 60% of its 162 games usually has a decent shot at a division flag with 97 wins (though that's a little low for the AL East). Then, you have to consider that a team has a 5 man rotation, and the expectation for a win varies a lot with who's starting for you and who you're facing. Good teams also drop series to bad teams all the time...a 60% winning team facing a 40% winning team is not at all unlikely to lose 2 of 3 or 3 of 4, even ignoring how the rotations match up.
    It's always better to start hot, but panic time is way off in the future, in my opinion. Even after a horrible start for the Yanks and a great one for the Bosox, your boys almost caught mine last season...of course, it was "almost", but people who thought the race was already decided in July were quite wrong. There was still a lot of baseball to be played, and I was getting frantic (didn't help to witness the Oki-Paps meltdown game against the Yanks in person late in the season).
    The Bosox have also been masters of leading the AL East early for much of this decade, and only finally won it last season...

    (BTW, never bid on those cricket bats...think they went for about $90-100 before shipping. Still a good deal!)
    "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

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    • #3
      There really isn't a set number of losses you worry about ahead of time. You're more concerned about losses in relation to your immediate competition. Each division will have a different level of competition. A couple of years ago the Cardinals won the NL Central (than the World Series) while barely having an above .500 record, whereas the Tigers won 12 more games but finished second in the AL Central (a game behind the Twins). So it varies. In general, a team should want to shoot for winning 90-95 games, and that should give the team a good shot at either winning it's division or the Wild Card.

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      • #4
        ok, so a 12-8 start would be superb then?

        would it be fair to say that most yanks fans rate wang as an ace, hughes and joba to be aces in, say 2009 or 2010 and kennedy same?

        could the yanks not have traded for santana, using wang as ballast in the deal?

        also, sorry for the amount of questions, when giambi is out next year and a big salary is saved, do you expect a big money shot coming in? what about texeira in the window?

        i was going to suggest bonds, then remembered i was not, in fact, drunk. lol. but sosa is available for 500k according to baseball tonight. not worth an occasional dh position?
        stands on shifting sands...

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by mjrennie View Post
          ok, so a 12-8 start would be superb then?

          would it be fair to say that most yanks fans rate wang as an ace, hughes and joba to be aces in, say 2009 or 2010 and kennedy same?

          could the yanks not have traded for santana, using wang as ballast in the deal?

          also, sorry for the amount of questions, when giambi is out next year and a big salary is saved, do you expect a big money shot coming in? what about texeira in the window?

          i was going to suggest bonds, then remembered i was not, in fact, drunk. lol. but sosa is available for 500k according to baseball tonight. not worth an occasional dh position?
          There are probably a lot of fans out there that consider Wang an "ace." He is definitely the "ace" of the Yankees staff, but he's not really on the same level as the true elite pitchers in the game. I'd say he's solidly on the second tier. Much is made out of his league leading 38 wins over the past two years - well it's easy to win games when you're pretty good and have the Yankees offense behind you.

          The Yankees may have offered Wang to the Twins, but he's a groundball pitcher, so pitching on the artificial turf in Minnesota would not be the best of places for him.

          Hughes and Joba are projected to become top flight starters, but that's easier said than done. Baseball America, which is regarded as one of the best publications here when it comes to prospects, rated Hughes as the best pitching prospect in all of baseball last year (and 4th overall), while rating Joba the best pitching prospect in baseball this year (and 3rd overall). So the expectations are high for them.

          Kennedy is a little further back, as Baseball America rated him the 45th best prospect overall this year, which is still high praise. I'd say though that there are lots of mixed feelings on Kennedy. His stuff isn't as good as Hughes or Chamberlain's, but he's regarded as more polished and has great control. But due to lack of stuff, and perhaps also due to being a little older, people don't see his ceiling as being as high as Hughes or Chamberlain's and see him more of a middle of the rotation starter, rather than a potential ace. However, he also dominated in the minors last year, moreso than Chamberlain did, showing that it isn't always about stuff. He might not dazzle like Hughes and Chamberlain, but in the short run, I think Kennedy will be the most consistent of the three, and I think people might be underrating him a little in comparison to the other two.

          I think the Yankees could very well make a run at Teixeira if the Braves don't find a way to lock him first. There have been rumblings for a couple of years now that the Yankees will make a run at Teixeira, kind of reminiscent of the years leading up to Giambi's free agency, which coincided with Tino Martinez's contract expiring. However, the situation is also somewhat reminiscent of a year earlier when there were two marquee free agents that the Yankees were rumored to be interested in - Manny Ramirez and Mike Mussina. The Yankees went with pitching and signed Mussina. Next year, the team might face a similar choice - C.C. Sabathia or Mark Teixeira?

          Sosa is not worth it. He'd be a distraction and at this stage of his career, I don't think he could do anything that Shelley Duncan couldn't do - that is hit some homeruns, hit for low average, not get on base much otherwise, strikeout a lot, and play bad defense. At least Duncan can play 1B as well.

          Don't worry about asking all the questions. I'm sure many of us are happy to chime in.
          Last edited by DoubleX; 04-03-2008, 02:31 PM.

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          • #6
            Regarding Sosa, the Yanks already have a bunch of guys who are going to want to spend some time at DH...Giambi, Damon, Matsui. XX also mentioned Duncan. I think that Sammy is getting close to being shot, and wouldn't have much of a role on the team.

            If the Yanks don't appear in the WS this season, I predict that the team will look at the salaries coming off the books and the revenue from the new park and try to sign top flight position AND pitcher FAs...basically abandoning the Cashman policy of some fiscal restraint and developing young players. Texeira and CC would fit the needs of the team well, assuming that they're available and want to play for the Yanks.
            (this is assuming the team is not sold)
            "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

            Comment


            • #7
              well, sabathia would be an awesome signing, no doubt. prefer that to texeira. if this game is all about the pitching, and it seems to be so, the rotation including cc would be very impressive. add it to what we have and it might well be the best.

              thanks for the replies.
              stands on shifting sands...

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by mjrennie View Post
                well, sabathia would be an awesome signing, no doubt. prefer that to texeira. if this game is all about the pitching, and it seems to be so, the rotation including cc would be very impressive. add it to what we have and it might well be the best.

                thanks for the replies.
                Sabathia as a replacement for Moose.... I am all ears.

                Would the Indians fall for a trade: Moose for Sabathia?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Yankeebiscuitfan View Post
                  Sabathia as a replacement for Moose.... I am all ears.

                  Would the Indians fall for a trade: Moose for Sabathia?
                  We'll throw in Igawa!
                  39 AL Pennants • 26 World Series titles
                  2003 • 2001 • 2000 • 1999•1998 • 1996 •1981 • 1978 •1977 • 1976 • 1964 • 1963 •1962 • 1961 • 1960 •1958•1957 • 1956 • 1955 • 1953 • 1952 • 1951 • 1950 • 1949•1947 • 1943 • 1942 • 1941•1939 • 1938 • 1937 • 1936•1932 • 1928 • 1927 • 1926 •1923 • 1922 • 1921

                  :bowdown:1•3•4•5•7•8•8•9•10•15•16•23•32•37•42•44•49 & soon 2•6•20•21•51•42

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Yankeebiscuitfan View Post
                    Sabathia as a replacement for Moose.... I am all ears.

                    Would the Indians fall for a trade: Moose for Sabathia?
                    I'm picking the low hanging fruit here, but "Moose" would be an EXCELLENT nickname for Sabathia. He makes Prince Fielder look like Richard Simmons.
                    Guy can REALLY pitch, though. I was lucky enough to watch him from not far behind home plate once, and his change was just filthy and you just couldn't pick up that it was coming. I just have a hard time seeing him having a really long career with all that extra weight, but what do I know about being a pro athlete.
                    "I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by hellborn View Post
                      all that extra weight.

                      baseball seems to have a few big lads to be fair. i guess the weight gives some power, but flab is dead weight. i would have thought muscle would be better...ah, hello mr mitchell!
                      stands on shifting sands...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by mjrennie View Post
                        baseball seems to have a few big lads to be fair. i guess the weight gives some power, but flab is dead weight. i would have thought muscle would be better...ah, hello mr mitchell!

                        http://www.baseball-fever.com/images/attach/jpg.gif
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                        39 AL Pennants • 26 World Series titles
                        2003 • 2001 • 2000 • 1999•1998 • 1996 •1981 • 1978 •1977 • 1976 • 1964 • 1963 •1962 • 1961 • 1960 •1958•1957 • 1956 • 1955 • 1953 • 1952 • 1951 • 1950 • 1949•1947 • 1943 • 1942 • 1941•1939 • 1938 • 1937 • 1936•1932 • 1928 • 1927 • 1926 •1923 • 1922 • 1921

                        :bowdown:1•3•4•5•7•8•8•9•10•15•16•23•32•37•42•44•49 & soon 2•6•20•21•51•42

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                        • #13
                          nice one.

                          btw, that was an awful scoreline last night. 13 conceded to tampa? were our boys drunk?
                          stands on shifting sands...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by mjrennie View Post
                            nice one.

                            btw, that was an awful scoreline last night. 13 conceded to tampa? were our boys drunk?
                            Fransworth and Hawkins is what happened! Hawkins really has to get a new number, he shouldn't wear #21!
                            39 AL Pennants • 26 World Series titles
                            2003 • 2001 • 2000 • 1999•1998 • 1996 •1981 • 1978 •1977 • 1976 • 1964 • 1963 •1962 • 1961 • 1960 •1958•1957 • 1956 • 1955 • 1953 • 1952 • 1951 • 1950 • 1949•1947 • 1943 • 1942 • 1941•1939 • 1938 • 1937 • 1936•1932 • 1928 • 1927 • 1926 •1923 • 1922 • 1921

                            :bowdown:1•3•4•5•7•8•8•9•10•15•16•23•32•37•42•44•49 & soon 2•6•20•21•51•42

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