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A's Get New SS from Japan!

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  • A's Get New SS from Japan!

    Announced by Billy B today at a Press Conference:

    http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...s_oak&c_id=oak

    This sounds super encouraging! Hits for average, plays solid D and averages 20 jacks / year in his career... Thoughts?
    WAR? Prove it!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  • #2
    Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
    Announced by Billy B today at a Press Conference:

    http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...s_oak&c_id=oak

    This sounds super encouraging! Hits for average, plays solid D and averages 20 jacks / year in his career... Thoughts?
    He was second in Japan in OBP and 4th in SLG this season.

    I've heard that his defense at SS is questionable.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by filihok View Post
      He was second in Japan in OBP and 4th in SLG this season.

      I've heard that his defense at SS is questionable.
      Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.
      WAR? Prove it!

      Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
        Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.
        Pennington had 1 good season and 1 below average season and a partial season in which his peripherals look good but his totals look bad.

        In 2010: Pennington was credited with 3.9 fWAR. He hit .319/.368 (OBP/SLG) for a .308 wOBA which was 9% below league average.
        In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
        In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

        So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
        His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

        2010 BABIP = .296
        2011 BABIP = .314
        2012 BABIP = .259

        His BABIP tanked. Should it have?
        2010: 22% LD, 36% GB, 43% FB, 12% IFFB.
        2011: 25% LD, 36% GB, 40% FB, 11% IFFB.
        2012: 23% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 8% IFFB.

        Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.

        How about his defense?
        YEAR: UZR
        2010: 8.8
        2011: -6.1
        2012: 10.1

        He had 2 good years and 1 bad year. Defensive stats are more fickle than hitting stats so take them with a grain of salt. He's generally regarded as a good fielder. Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report rated him as a 3.9 out of 5. If we average his 3 years of defense, we get (8.8-6.1+10.1) 4.3. A 'good' defender is usually considered 5 - 10 runs above average. It's possible he's a good defender who had a bad year in 2011, players have bad years offensively, they can have bad ones defensively as well.

        Baserunning, his numbers look like:
        2010: 9.9 runs
        2011: -5.2 runs
        2012: 7.4 runs

        Similar to his defense, he had a bad showing in 2011 but rebounded in 2012. He's probably a 0-5 run base runner.

        Add all of those things together and you get a SS worth between 2 and 3 wins a season. That's totally acceptable for a starter.

        *data FanGraphs
        Last edited by filihok; 12-19-2012, 12:56 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
          I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.
          WAR? Prove it!

          Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
            Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
            I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.
            What in my 'analysis' do you disagree with?

            I specifically indicated that he has not regressed





            It's almost impossible for Pennington to be a .300 hitter with his K rate.

            Assume 600 plate appearances.
            Pennington K's about 19% of the time and walks about 8% of the time.
            In those 600 PA's Pennington would K 114 times and walk 48 times.
            Taking the 48 BB's away from the PA's leaves 552 at bats (we'll ignore HPB, SF, SH, etc).
            Take away the 114 K's. That leaves 438 balls in play.

            Pennington hits about 6 HR's per year. Take those out of the balls in play (438-6). That leaves 432 balls in play.

            What would he have to hit on those 432 balls in play to hit .300?
            Remember that he has 114 K's which add to his at bats and 6 home runs which also add to his at bats
            That's 552 at bats.
            .300 * 552 = 166 hits.
            6 are home runs.
            That means he needs 160 hits on the 432 balls in play.
            160/432 = .370
            He'd need a .370 BABIP to hit .300.

            His career BABIP is .315

            League average BABIP is around .290

            Highly unlikely he'll ever be a .300 hitter unless he cuts down on his K's or adds a bunch of home runs.

            Comment


            • #7
              I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

              In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
              In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

              Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming. We'll have to see his production play out another year so we can trend it.
              Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.
              WAR? Prove it!

              Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

                In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
                In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

                Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming.
                So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
                His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

                2010 BABIP = .296
                2011 BABIP = .314
                2012 BABIP = .259

                His BABIP tanked. Should it have?
                2010: 22% LD, 36% GB, 43% FB, 12% IFFB.
                2011: 25% LD, 36% GB, 40% FB, 11% IFFB.
                2012: 23% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 8% IFFB.

                Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.
                Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.
                Pennington was traded to Arizona for Chris Young

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by filihok View Post
                  Pennington was traded to Arizona for Chris Young
                  LOL. You're right - and I even posted a thread on that topic. I'll blame it on the stroke I had back in February. Sometimes I forget stuff.
                  WAR? Prove it!

                  Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=Fmmk8c7otHU

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.
                      "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ben Grimm View Post
                        Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.
                        Stephen Drew signed a one year contract with the Red Soxs for 9 million. A 2.5 million more than Nakajima's 2 year contract with the A's. I'm rather sceptical about how Japanese profis fare here.

                        Matsui Slumpsui didn't help much.

                        Cliff Pennington did get clutch hits, despite an off year, and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012. All these unproductive hits in low pressure situations in 2010 and 2011 didn't help much. I liked Ryan Sweeney's near .300 batting averages, but that was a dead end in overall team production. I'm not sold on Nakajima, but it looks like there's no one else to plug the ss gap. Cross your fingers!
                        Last edited by anna; 01-02-2013, 08:02 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by anna View Post
                          Cliff pennington did get clutch hits and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012.
                          Pennington had a .262 wOBA in low leverage situations in 2012
                          He had a .271 wOBA in medium leverage situations in 2012
                          He had a .235 wOBA in high leverage situations in 2012.

                          He had a negative WPA for the season.

                          He hit his worst in the most important game situations.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by filihok View Post
                            Pennington had a .262 wOBA in low leverage situations in 2012
                            He had a .271 wOBA in medium leverage situations in 2012
                            He had a .235 wOBA in high leverage situations in 2012.

                            He had a negative WPA for the season.

                            He hit his worst in the most important game situations.
                            I'd rather roll dice with the import... Hoping for at least a .700 OPS, haha
                            WAR? Prove it!

                            Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              most japanese position players don't really work well at the majors.
                              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                              Comment

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