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2013 ZiPS projections

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  • 2013 ZiPS projections

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...and-athletics/


    Not overly optimistic. Projecting the A's to be about a .500 team.


    Projects new SS Hiroyuki Nakajima to hit .271/.316/.366. Or about as well as Michael Young (.312/.370) last season

  • #2
    Where did they have us last year?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by filihok View Post
      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...and-athletics/


      Not overly optimistic. Projecting the A's to be about a .500 team.


      Projects new SS Hiroyuki Nakajima to hit .271/.316/.366. Or about as well as Michael Young (.312/.370) last season

      I'm cautiously optimistic for the 2013 season. If Cespedes can stay healthy, we'll have a shot. I like the outfield talent & depth.
      However, I keep wondering why Daric Barton is still on the 40 man roster?
      WAR? Prove it!

      Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

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      • #4
        To me it seems like they are criminally underrating the A's hitters.
        Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Buffalo A's fan View Post
          Where did they have us last year?
          Here are the 2012 projections - minus Cespedes. Looks like some are close, others are way off.

          http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ns_oakland_as/
          WAR? Prove it!

          Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

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          • #6
            Well, their season prediction was
            2012? It's not going to be pretty.
            So, there's that. I won't put much stock into their thoughts for this year.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Buffalo A's fan View Post
              Well, their season prediction was

              So, there's that. I won't put much stock into their thoughts for this year.
              Yeah their pitching projections were not very good at all...
              WAR? Prove it!

              Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

              Comment


              • #8
                So I looked at the ZIPS for 2012. Most were way off, especially for Reddick. I am not putting much weight behind them, so to each their own I guess.
                WAR? Prove it!

                Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                  So I looked at the ZIPS for 2012. Most were way off, especially for Reddick. I am not putting much weight behind them, so to each their own I guess.
                  Yeah.

                  It's hard to predict the future.

                  I don't suppose you'd care to put up your own predictions vs ZiPS to compare at the end of the season. That may help you to appreciate them more.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by filihok View Post
                    Yeah.

                    It's hard to predict the future.

                    I don't suppose you'd care to put up your own predictions vs ZiPS to compare at the end of the season. That may help you to appreciate them more.
                    I did a bit of digging and found these past predictions you made

                    APRIL 5 2009
                    Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                    Anyone have some predictions to share for 2009?

                    I'll throw a few out there:

                    Chavez will get his release sometime this year.

                    Giambi will hit 25 HR.

                    Suzuki will hit .300 or better.

                    Bobby Crosby may see some time at 1B before he gets traded.
                    ACTUAL
                    Giambi 11 home runs
                    Suzuki finished with a .274 average

                    ZIPS
                    Giambi 18 home runs
                    Suzuki .248 average

                    Scoreboard:
                    ZiPS - 1 (much closer to Giambi's HR total)
                    TIE - 1 (Zito and ZiPS were both off by .026 of batting average)
                    Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 1, Zito - 0



                    DECEMBER 14 2010
                    Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                    I hear you - the only ex-yanks I like are Jason Giambi and Rickey Henderson. I'm not expecting much from Matsui this year: .262, 18 HR, 67 RBI.
                    ACTUAL
                    Matsui .251 12 HR 72 RBI

                    ZIPS
                    .281 16 HR 69 RBI

                    Scoreboard:
                    TIE - 1 (Zito was closer on the average. ZiPS was closer on the HR and RBI)
                    Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 2, Zito - 0



                    JANUARY 16 2012
                    Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                    I hear you, Anna. Not sure if we can crack 20 hr's by any single player...
                    ACTUAL
                    3 hitters hit over 20 home runs
                    Reddick 32
                    Cespedes 23 (not sure he was signed in January)
                    Moss 21

                    ZIPS
                    had Chris Carter with 20 HR
                    Reddick 15
                    Moss 15
                    Cespedes was not projected

                    Scoreboard:
                    TIE - 1 (Neither ZiPS nor Zito projected a hitter for over 20 HR)
                    Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 3, Zito - 0



                    FEBRUARY 29 2012
                    Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                    Tejada might be a nice bandaid. He probably won't be an everyday player, could put up 12-15 HR's and maybe hit around .270. That wouldn't be all bad on part time duty.
                    ACTUAL
                    Tejada did not play in the majors, hit .259 with 0 homers in AAA

                    ZIPS
                    Tejada .261 with 7 home runs

                    Scoreboard:
                    ZiPS - .5, TIE - .5 (Neither projection really captured how awful Tejada would be. But ZiPS' was notably worse)

                    FINAL SCORE: ZiPS - 1.5, TIE - 3.5, Zito - 0


                    *Note: before anyone takes this too seriously, I wasn't taking it that seriously.

                    Comment

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