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Ichiro to hall of fame?

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  • #16
    Don't know about "hands down the best defensive RFer every to play"...that's a stretch IMHO. One of the top 10 or 15, perhaps...which is quite a compliment when you're talking about all time achievements...

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    • #17
      I don't know why some people here equate Japanese stats with Negro League stats. It's apples and oranges. Completely different situations.

      And Negro League numbers aren't recognized in any official way anyway, or else you would see Josh Gibson on the all-time HR leader board.

      Ichiro's status as the biggest star in Japan will be considered by many voters, but no one in their right mind is going to consider him part of the 3000 hit club if he is only in it by combining his Japanese and MLB numbers.

      All that said, if he gets to 2000 American, he'll be in. The fact that he started late will help his case.
      "You should enter a ballpark the way you enter a church." - Bill Spaceman Lee

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      • #18
        He's already very close to 3000 htis if you include Japan. He has an outside shot at 3,000 American and is almost a lock for 2,000 American.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Ashburn1
          Ichiro's status as the biggest star in Japan will be considered by many voters, but no one in their right mind is going to consider him part of the 3000 hit club if he is only in it by combining his Japanese and MLB numbers.
          He wasn't; Hideki Matsui was. And Ichiro is ten times the player Matsui is.
          "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

          Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

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          • #20
            Originally posted by SABR Matt
            He's already very close to 3000 htis if you include Japan. He has an outside shot at 3,000 American and is almost a lock for 2,000 American.
            He should only need 4-5 seasons to reach 2000 hits here in the MLB, and if you include his Japanese stats, he only needs 3 seasons (592 hits) to reach 3,000+ career hits.

            And if you want to get real theoretical, he has a shot at 4,000, if he stays another 8-9 years.

            1278 hits - Japan
            1130 hits - MLB
            total - 2408 hits

            4000-2408 = 1592
            1592/190 = 8.4 seasons (9).

            But that's just me thinking, and he doesn't need to reach such an astronomical number such as 4,000 hits, although he should end up with 2,000+ hits in the MLB, and 3400+ hits in his career (both leagues). If that ain't good enough for you, then I'm not sure what is.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Ashburn1
              I don't know why some people here equate Japanese stats with Negro League stats. It's apples and oranges. Completely different situations.

              And Negro League numbers aren't recognized in any official way anyway, or else you would see Josh Gibson on the all-time HR leader board.
              Well, then how do they decide if the player is Hall worthy or not? They look at the NUMBERS, and how people viewed them, etc...

              Most of them didn't have ANY major league experience, yet they are in, even when the nubmers that people use are not entirely accurate. Yet Ichiro who HAS put up amazing numbers, and DOES have Major league experience, isn't worthy?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by ElHalo
                He wasn't; Hideki Matsui was. And Ichiro is ten times the player Matsui is.
                No. Ichiro was the most famous and considered the best player when he played in Japan. I spent a month in Japan in July 2002 and everyone was still talking about Ichiro. I went there to teach English and share the Gospel. When I was at LAX I saw that Ichiro was on the cover of SI so I bought about 10 copies and gave them away to my Japanese students. Thet just loved it!!!
                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                • #23
                  I think Ichiro gets into the HoF is the following happen:

                  2000-2300 hits
                  win 4-5 batting titles total
                  wins 6-8 GGs total
                  Finishes with a .320-.330 lifetime BA

                  I think the voters will take into account his time in Japan. He has won RoY and MVP honors plus he hold a major single season record. I think if the next five years are 90% of his first five years he gets in easily.
                  Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                  • #24
                    I can't see Ichiro's career average in the majors dropping below .300 (he'd have to have some seasons rather below that, and with his comparative lack of walks and lack of power, he wouldn't be too valuable at .270 or lower). If he maintains that .300 MLB career average, even low power guys do quite well at getting into Cooperstown after 2100 career hits. As the article I wrote indicates, 12 of 16 retired outfielders with a career average of .300 or more, a slugging percentage under .480 and 2100-2800 career hits are in the Hall. If Ichiro makes it to that level, I think he's a lock. By that standard, he's less than 1000 hits from the Hall even if we totally ignore his Japanese accomplishments.

                    Jim Albright
                    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

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                    • #25
                      Yep...I agree with that assessment Jim...barring some catastrophic injury or sudden utter collapse of his hitting ability...Ichiro is destined to be the first Mariner in Cooperstown (other great Mariners sadly finished their careers on other teams where they got more attention...or in the case of Edgar Martinez...will probably take several tries before they get in)

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                      • #26
                        --I don't think it would be appropriate to actually add Ichiro's Japanese numbers to his MLB ones and call him a 3,000 (or 4,000) hit guy. If he gets close to Hall territory here, then his accomplishments in Japan should be a significant boost to his candidacy though. Barring a complete collapse I think all Ichiro needs to do to make Cooperstown is put in his 10 years. Even a relatively empty .300 career average, combined with the ROY, MVP, 2 batting titles, however many GGs, the hits record and his pioneering role is a nice Hall of fame resume. 2,000 hits in a 10 year career is more impressive than 3,000 in 18-20 anyway.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Edgartohof

                          He holds the single season hits record, which is a tremendous record (but S.S. records don't get you into the HOF all on their own - ask Maris). .
                          ask Hack Wilson

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Edgartohof
                            Well, then how do they decide if the player is Hall worthy or not? They look at the NUMBERS, and how people viewed them, etc...

                            Most of them didn't have ANY major league experience, yet they are in, even when the nubmers that people use are not entirely accurate. Yet Ichiro who HAS put up amazing numbers, and DOES have Major league experience, isn't worthy?
                            You must have misread my post. I said that Ichiro probably will (and should) get into the HOF.
                            "You should enter a ballpark the way you enter a church." - Bill Spaceman Lee

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Edgartohof
                              And what's your stance on Negro League players who never played a major league game in their careers, yet are already in the Hall?

                              I never said that his 5 years alone make him Hall worthy, but I do count his Japanese stats, because he has proven that he could have put up those kind of numbers in that time frame.

                              So I am sorry that you feel this way about Ichiro, and I hope his continued success here in the MLB will help change your mind.
                              All the numbers you cite and projections you make include his Japanese numbers. They don't count. It is not my fault he didn't come over here sooner. It is not my fault he is a singles hitter playing a corner OF slot. Yes he is a great defender, but so was Dewey Evans and he isn't in the HoF and he had a 20 year career with 2400+ hits. It is impossible that when Ichiro's career is over Evans will still have more VORP, WARP, Win Shares, and RCAA.

                              You want to take Triple A numbers, mask them in some kind of morality clause, and say they "count". Simply because a guy shows he is an excellent major league hitter does not mean he gets to add his minor league numbers to his major league numbers.

                              Why don't I put Indian Bob Johnson in the HoF as well?? Simply adding his minor league numbers to his major leagues ones and, Voila, a bona fide HoFer instead of just a marginal candidate.

                              I have no problem with the Negro leaguers. First, they at least played in America. Second, they were denied any chance to play major league ball simply because they were Negroes. Its a form of atonement.

                              Ichiro was never held back from competing in the U.S. other than it wasn't practical and he didn't want to.

                              It's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the World HoF nor the International HoF. If you want in, come over here and earn it.

                              Pioneer status for Ichiro is ridiculous. What did he pioneer and what hardships did he face that were of major league baseball's making?? He has shown himself to be the best of a weak hitting group.

                              Don't get me wrong. I agree Ichiro is a superb player. He is a fine defender, an excellent baserunner, and a superb handler of the bat. On the other hand you should admit that as corner OF he is not exactly playing a premium defensive postion and his hitting is totally devoid of power. His career OPS is only 57 points above average. That is not HoF country for a RFer.

                              I have no problem with Ichiro. If he continues to throw up the numbers he has date for say 15 years then he deserves to be in the HoF.
                              Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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                              • #30
                                have no problem with Ichiro. If he continues to throw up the numbers he has date for say 15 years then he deserves to be in the HoF.


                                i agree but my instincts tell me ichy has peaked.

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