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  • Hope for our team?

    What are we looking at if the team plays at the best of their abilities? Do we have a shot at the division? A title? Or would we even at our best only be looking to break even? I mean you can only work with what you've got, so do we have enough as it is to do anything, or are we destined to another cellar "rebuilding" year. Even if it is, at least this year we have some young talent to mold (Felix, Betancourt), so we could still get something out of it.

    I think that we could be back in the hunt for the division, if everything works out, but I'm not saying we would be in contention for the playoffs.

    Here are some quick numbers, just to have something to work with - so pick away at them (and the lineup).

    1. Ichiro (RF)- .330/.380/.440, 30 SB's
    2. Jeremy Reed (CF) - .265/.340/.410
    3. Adrian Beltre (3B) - .265/.320/.440, 25 HR's
    4. Richie "Big Man" Sexson (1B) - .267/.375/.551, 41 HR's, 130 RBI
    5. Raul "The Bat" Ibanez (DH/LF) - .287/.366/.454 - 22 HR's
    6. Johjima (C) - .288/.342/.436 - 19 HR's - I have no idea here, I know he hit .300 in Japan, with some power - I guess we'll see how it translates.
    7. Jose Lopez (2B) - .256/.311/.396
    8. Matt "only hit 20 HR's even while using steroids" Lawton/Carl Everett (LF/DH)
    9. Yuniesky "the Cat" Betancourt (SS) - .261/.313/.412 - 16 triples

    SP - Jamie "The Slow Man" Moyer - 200 IP, 15 W
    SP - "King" Felix Hernandez - 18 W, 240 SO
    SP - Jarrod Washburn - 13 W, 3.70 ERA
    SP - Joel Piniero - 10 W, 5.42 ERA
    SP - Gil Meche - 8 W, 4.99 ERA

    spot starter - Kevin Appier - 120 IP, 84 SO
    RP - Julio Mateo - 72 IP, 3.35 ERA
    Cl - Eddie Guardado - 2.68 ERA, 41 S (has anyone noticed that his ERA has gotten lower the last 7 years?)

    I know that some of these numbers are far out, and I left several players off, and may have some players on there that shouldn't, but then again, I ran out of coffee hours ago

  • #2
    I'm not a big numbers guy but I do think the team will be better. The Mariner catchers were absolutely awful so we upgraded there. Sexson was great and I expect more of the same. We all know what happened with Boone so Lopez shouldn't hurt us too badly. Shortstop was another disappointment but Betancourt absolutely wowed me with his glove work. I think Beltre will play better next year. Ibanez did a great job last year and should continue on. Reed seems to be on everyone’s trade list but I think we should keep him. Ichiro played another stellar season. So no real holes for the position players. Starting pitching is a worry. Meche and Pineiro need to turn it around; Jamie is not getting any younger. Felix was phenomenal and hopefully he will stay healthy. Washburn should do great in Safeco.
    I always think the Mariners will have a good year at the beginning of the season. Can’t wait for Spring Training!
    :gt

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Mariner Fan
      Can’t wait for Spring Training!
      :gt
      I'm 100% in agreement with you here!

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      • #4
        06!

        The great thing about Moyer is he is an old man who makes young men look foolish. Everytime I start to think he can't do it anymore he comes back and does it again.
        Our new catcher from Japan may not have the home run power but if he can knock some down in the power alleys I would be happy. I am more worried about his communication with the pitching staff. On the plus side, he wants to be here which usually translate into good attitude and I am sure that he wouldn't have been signed without a head nod from Ichiro. As we all know, Ichiro is starting to get a tad impatient...and rightly so!
        Johnny
        Delusion, Life's Coping Mechanism

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        • #5
          Originally posted by johnny
          The great thing about Moyer is he is an old man who makes young men look foolish. Everytime I start to think he can't do it anymore he comes back and does it again.
          Our new catcher from Japan may not have the home run power but if he can knock some down in the power alleys I would be happy. I am more worried about his communication with the pitching staff. On the plus side, he wants to be here which usually translate into good attitude and I am sure that he wouldn't have been signed without a head nod from Ichiro. As we all know, Ichiro is starting to get a tad impatient...and rightly so!
          I was wondering the same thing about communication with the pitcher and the catcher. We think that a Japanese catcher can’t talk to a pitcher but what about all the Latino’s? Think they can all speak English? Sure it’s a bit of a problem but considering the catchers we had last year I’m willing to give this a try.

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          • #6
            There is no question that the division will be stacked next year (especially if Manny was moved to Anahiem). I think we should try to improve our young talent and focus on the future. Every team in the division has plenty of talent at the major league level as well as in the farm system. I'm a realist, and it doesn't look great. That being said, with improvements by Meche and Piniero, combined with a rebound year from Beltre, we could be in the playoff picture. It will definitely take some magic though.

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            • #7
              We don't need miracles from Mehce and Pineiro.

              We need them to be 4.50-ish pitchers...which they both done in their careers on more than one occasion. If we get 4.50 out of Meche and Pineiro combined...(and they don't even have to eat innings...our bullpen is going to be OUTSTANDING in 2006...Sherrill, Soriano, Guardado, Putz, Mateo, L. Gonzalez, Nageotte...YOWZA!!)...Moyer doesn't collapse...and we get a little more from Beltre, the expected Molina-esque production from Johjima, some marginal improvement offensively from Lopez and Betancourt, and we avoid catastrophic injury...we'll be competitive.

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              • #8
                So what we are saying is that it could go so right but could go so wrong. Who the heck knows? I never thought the last two years would have gone so badly. I have a theory about a very veteran team who won everything then took a big dive the next year when the steroid rules were toughened up but won't say anything about it.
                I agree with ichro 262 who said we should try to improve our young talent and focus on the future. We probably will not make the playoff's this year but should improve the win total by at least 10 to 15 games.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mariner Fan
                  I have a theory about a very veteran team who won everything then took a big dive the next year when the steroid rules were toughened up but won't say anything about it.

                  about time someone on this board had the balls to call out the m's on this crap.

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                  • #10
                    --The Ms have improved, but so has the rest of the division. I'll be happy if they can keep it reasonably interesting deep into the season (or at least not be out of it by Memorial Day like the last two years). I don't think there is much chance of winning the division or making the playoffs. Somebody else in the division probably has to underachieve and/or the Mariners overachieve just to avoid the cellar.

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                    • #11
                      I strongl disagree there.

                      The Ragners have gotten worse despite adding Millwood. The Angels have gotten worse by losing two of their primary starting pitchers.

                      The division is still open for a team to have a good year and catch the leaders.

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                      • #12
                        The division is open -- it's WIDE open. The Rangers have certainly not gotten much worse considering their pitching aquisitions (not just Millwood but also Padilla and relief). I mean, losing Soriano will hit them somewhat, but this team was a run scoring machine in '05, largely due to Young and Texiera. The Angels have what some are calling the best farm system in the bigs, so they aren't going anywhere. Oakland, once again, looks like a steaming pile of crap. I mean, their pitching overperformed last year, and there is no guarantee that they are going to even have Zito on opening day. They added Milton Bradley, but he isn't better than Matt Lawton (who is going to be riding the pine for us). I don't care what anyone says about Esteban Loiza either -- this guy is heading for a train wreck. I've watched a lot of his games, and it almost always looks like the guy is going to give up 10 runs. But all that being said, they will of course surprise everyone and overperform like they always do. So basically, anyone seriously could win the division. As a realist, I think it will break down like this:
                        1. Anahiem
                        2. Seattle
                        3. Oakland (I think this year they will master the pattented "Mariner-late-season collapse")
                        4. Texas (I realize that I said this team was good, but they don't know how to win games -- last year they were 3rd in runs and 1st in homers)
                        I guess to me that's a best case scenerio. Right now, I just don't want to get depressed midway through the year knowing the Mariners are out. They gave a taste of sweet victory in 2001, and I want it back.
                        Last edited by ichiro262; 01-18-2006, 08:07 PM.

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                        • #13
                          The Rangers added Millwood, Eaton, Wilkerson and Padilla, and at the same time lost Rogers, Young, and Soriano. Padilla is a step BACKWORDS. Eaton is no better than Young. Millwood is at best a very minor upgrade over Rogers of 2005 even if you don't think he is likely to repeat. We ont really even know what they're going to get out of second base...and their outfield wasn't the problem offensively last year so I don't see how Wilkseron is going to help. Add to that the fact that they have NOTHING to fill the last two rotation spots...and their team defense is still likely to be horrid since they seem to have a total inability to run a team...they ran 5 different rangers into the outfield last year and none of them had a majority position...you can't field a good defense if no one has an assigned role.

                          The As "look" like a steaming pile every year...I made the mistake of dismissing them last year...I won't make that mistake again...they're going to be tough to beat. Once again, it will depend on careful management of their pitching staff, and good use of the platoon type players.

                          The Angels are IMHO the most likely to step backwords in the short term. They've made no move to replace two of their biggest inning eaters in the rotation, and I don't care how much you love farm systme...that pen is going to end up overworked...they've also made no moves to improve their batting order...and I'm highly concerned about the utter lack of power threats outside of Guerrero. No power from C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, or DH. That's even worse than Seattle's situation right now in the power department...they also don't have a lot of guys who take walks...it's a slap hitting team up and down...albeit one with a good lead-off hitter and some useful interchangeable parts.

                          All four teams have question marks...the difference between Seattle and everyone else in the AL west right now is that Seattle is coming back from a long way down...they'll have to prove they're a contender before anyone believes they are one...that's fine. I personally think they'll finish out of the cellar and be in the race until September.

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                          • #14
                            --The Ms SP will be somewhere between below average and trainwreck. The bullpen, however, will be somewhere between above average and great and the defense will be very good. That should give us at least an average run prevention group. The offense will be improved, but not drastically improved and should be either a little above or below average. That sounds like .500 to me.

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                            • #15
                              I don't agree with that assessment.

                              The offense will end up slightly ABOVE average IMHO...you just can't overestimate the importance of having a likely rebound from Beltre, a hitter instead of a black hole of dispair behind the plate, and an acual bench (Lawton really...really...helps...and Bloomqist is good off the bench...if he's not starting...we're in good shape).

                              And our pen will be the best in the AL in 2006...I am billish on just how good we can e with Sherrill/Soriano/Guardado/Putz/Mateo/Mageotte/Gonzalez

                              As for the rotation...I believe Pineiro and Meche are better than they looked last year...I strongly believe a year of King Felix, Jarrod Washburn and better results from Meche/Pineiro/Nageotte will be FAR better than the crap we got last year even if Moyer does fade.

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