Lineup/Rotation/Bullpen

[Edgartohof]

I just found this at the Mariners site:

here is the link - http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASA...=.jsp&c_id=sea
Projected batting order
1. RF Ichiro Suzuki:
.303 BA, 15 HR, 68 RBI in 2005
2. C Kenji Johjima:
.309 BA, 24 HR, 57 RBI (Japan) in 2005
3. LF Raul Ibanez:
.280 BA, 20 HR, 89 RBI in 2005
4. 1B Richie Sexson:
.263 BA, 39 HR, 121 RBI in 2005
5. DH Carl Everett:
.251 BA, 23 HR, 87 RBI (with White Sox) in 2005
6. 3B Adrian Beltre:
.255 BA, 19 HR, 87 RBI in 2005
7. CF Jeremy Reed:
.254 BA, 3 HR, 45 RBI in 2005
8. 2B Jose Lopez:
.247 BA, 2 HR, 25 RBI in 2005
9. SS Yuniesky Betancourt:
.256 BA, 1 HR, 15 RBI in 2005

Projected rotation
1. Jamie Moyer, 13-7, 4.28 ERA in 2005
2. Joel Pineiro, 7-11, 5.62 in 2005
3. Jarrod Washburn, 8-8, 3.20 (with Angels) in 2005
4. Gil Meche, 10-8, 5.09 in 2005
5. Felix Hernandez, 4-4, 2.67 in 2005

Projected bullpen
Closer: Eddie Guardado, 36 saves, 2.72 ERA in 2005
RH setup man: Rafael Soriano, 2.45 ERA in 2005
LH setup man: George Sherrill, 5.21 ERA in 2005

So what do you think of it?

[Edgartohof]

I was surprised to see Johjima in the #2 hole, does he really have the speed we are looking for there (a catcher with speed!)? And especially coming off an injury to his tibia (?). I'd rather see Reed there (or even Lopez, or even possibly Betancourt)

The other big surprise was to see Felix at the bottom of the order!!! I can see not having him the number 1 guy, but even with his young age, he is by far our greatest pitcher we have, so he should be number 2 in the rotation.

[Ashburn1]

Well, that does put things into perspective. This is going to be a tough season.

That projected lineup is riddled with question marks:

Is there going to be an easier 7-9 for opposing pitchers in all the American League? How will Kenji perform? He's not really a #2 hitter, is he? If not, who is? Which Beltre do we get this year? Will Ibanez' power numbers continue their downward trend? Assuming they do, is a .280 hitting 18-20 HR bat good enough for the three hole? How many times is Ichiro going to be left standing on first or second without scoring? We've got Carl Everett protecting the cleanup hitter? We're in trouble. It would be nice if Kenji proved good enough to bat third, and if Beltre approached his 2004 numbers.

I'll be pullin' for 'em,... after all, I did resolve to be less of a pesimist about the Mariners this year.

[Edgartohof]

Is there going to be an easier 7-9 for opposing pitchers in all the American League?

Sad but quite possibly true

[/B] Which Beltre do we get this year?

He will most likely never again hit remotely close to what he did in '04, and I don't expect him to. He is a 20 HR hitter, and that's about it. Hopefully he can pick it up and put good doubles power as well, and keep working on the glove.

Will Ibanez' power numbers continue their downward trend? Assuming they do, is a .280 hitting 18-20 HR bat good enough for the three hole?

Ibanez's power actually went up last year, but then again he spent most of the year at DH, so we'll see, I'd be happy with 20 HR's from him, he is at least consistent at the plate. And with the power of Sexson behind him, he will get more good pitches, and while I don't have anything to back this up, I see him as a better "good" ball hitter.

How many times is Ichiro going to be left standing on first or second without scoring? We've got Carl Everett protecting the cleanup hitter? We're in trouble. It would be nice if Kenji proved good enough to bat third,

We shall see, we shall see...

[Ashburn1]

Ibanez's power actually went up last year, but then again he spent most of the year at DH, so we'll see, I'd be happy with 20 HR's from him, he is at least consistent at the plate. And with the power of Sexson behind him, he will get more good pitches, and while I don't have anything to back this up, I see him as a better "good" ball hitter.

Well, I was interpreting Ibanez' power numbers as continuing to steadily decrease based on a .436 slugging pct (down from .472, and his lowest in any season with more than 300 AB's), and less 2B and HR per AB. He doesn't drop much, but there is a slight, steady decline. He can probably be counted on for 18-20 again. He's a nice player, but he does kind of look like a poor-man's #3 hitter.

He will most likely never again hit remotely close to what he did in '04, and I don't expect him to. He is a 20 HR hitter, and that's about it. Hopefully he can pick it up and put good doubles power as well, and keep working on the glove.

I fear you are right about Beltre, and that is the conventional wisdom of course, but I'd love it if everyone turned out to be wrong. I'd be overjoyed with his career average (per 162: .271/.327/.455, 24 hr's), which would be an improvement over '05.

[Mariner Fan]

The team said they were going to put Felix in the number 5 spot to protect him. Heck, if he pitches every 5 days I'm good.
I know Reed had a tough year with the bat last year and Hargrove platooned him. Didn't he hit the heck out of the ball when he was called up from Tacoma in 04? Maybe he will do better with a little seasoning under his belt.

[SABR Matt]

I *STRONGLY* disagree with this notion that our 7-9 is the worst in the AL. You guys are badly *BADLY* underratin Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez...not to mention Jeremy Reed.

And I don't expect Johjima to be hitting second by the middle of the season...I expect Reed to hit enough to get back to batting second.

[Mariner Fan]

I *STRONGLY* disagree with this notion that our 7-9 is the worst in the AL. You guys are badly *BADLY* underratin Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez...not to mention Jeremy Reed.

And I don't expect Johjima to be hitting second by the middle of the season...I expect Reed to hit enough to get back to batting second.

Your right. These guys were brought up to the bigs and played pretty well considering the situation. I'm not going to condem anyone until they get more time in the Majors.

[The Semi-Natural]

Felix

I was surprised to see Johjima in the #2 hole, does he really have the speed we are looking for there (a catcher with speed!)? And especially coming off an injury to his tibia (?). I'd rather see Reed there (or even Lopez, or even possibly Betancourt)

The other big surprise was to see Felix at the bottom of the order!!! I can see not having him the number 1 guy, but even with his young age, he is by far our greatest pitcher we have, so he should be number 2 in the rotation.

In the 5 spot he'll have less starts, less pressure thus preserving a young arm for the near future and distant future. See the Cubs distasters of the lst few years.

If Beltre can bounce back and Jojima is as advertised, we should be alright. We shall see.

[Ashburn1]

I *STRONGLY* disagree with this notion that our 7-9 is the worst in the AL. You guys are badly *BADLY* underratin Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez...not to mention Jeremy Reed.

And I don't expect Johjima to be hitting second by the middle of the season...I expect Reed to hit enough to get back to batting second.

I hope you're right!

[ichiro262]

I honestly think it looks good. My only switch would be Beltre and Everett, but Beltre should prove that he deserves to be a reliable bat before we treat him like one. Maybe the shame of being in the tail-end of the lineup will whip his bat into shape. I like King Felix in the 5 spot: It will help with innings at the beginning of the year, and can anyone name a better 5 starter? A lot of other young pitchers have flourished in the 5 spot (John Garland, Brandon Backe, Chris Capuano). I think we should be able to challenge Oakland and Anaheim for the division with this lineup.

[SABR Matt]

May I refer you to this...those of you who are assuming Bentacourt is not a hitting prospect and will not be at least somewhat productive in 2006:

http://detectovision.com/?p=479#comments

[Ashburn1]

IS the M's 7-9 being the worst in the AL actually the "conventional wisdom" Matt?

I'd never read or heard that anywhere, it's just something I surmised myself. So, either I am completely in harmony with whatever big statistician in the sky it is that decrees these kinds of things, or I myself am CREATING conventional wisdom right here on this board! Either way, that's kinda cool.

[SABR Matt]

Well the conventional wisdom is that the Mariners will struggle to hit this year owing at least in part to a weak back of the line-up and little improvement over last year.

[Ashburn1]

I guess that's the obvious conclusion,... I do, however, salute your optimism. I'm going downstairs right now to drink a cold Red Hook in your honor!